Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Climate Change Mass Extinction - Birds, Bees and Bugs: Going Going Gone - Richard_Mills
2.A Purrrfect Gold Price Setup! - Peter_Degraaf
3.Who Finances America's Borrowing? Recession Indicator for Independent Thinkers Part 2 - F_F_Wiley
4.America’s One-sided Domestic Financial War - Raymond_Matison
5.Gold Price Summer Doldrums - Zeal_LLC
6.Two Key Events Will Unleash Gold - Jim_Willie_CB
7.Billionaire Schools Teacher in NAFTA Trade Talks - Richard_Mills
8.Get Out Of Crypto Cannabis Bubble Before It Pops and Move Into Bargain Basement Miners - Jeb_Handwerger
9.Stock Market Could Pullback for 1-2 weeks, But Medium Term Bullish - Troy_Bombardia
10.G7 Chaos, Central Banks and US Fed Will Drive Stock Prices This Week - Chris_Vermeulen
Last 7 days
Financial Markets Analysis and Trend Forecasts 2018 - A Message from Nadeem Walayat - 21st Jun 18
SPX Bouncing Above Support - 21st Jun 18
Things You Need To Know If You Want To Invest In Bitcoin Now - 21st Jun 18
The NASDAQ’s Outperformance vs. the Dow is Very Bullish - 21st Jun 18
Warning All Investors: Global Stock Market Are Shifting Away From US Price Correlation - 20th Jun 18
Gold GLD ETF Update… Breakdown ? - 20th Jun 18
Short-term Turnaround in Bitcoin Might Not Be What You Think - 19th Jun 18
Stock Market’s Short Term Downside Will be Limited - 19th Jun 18
Natural Gas Setup for 32% Move in UGAZ Fund - 19th Jun 18
Magnus Collective To Empower Automation And Artificial Intelligence - 19th Jun 18
Trump A Bull in a China Shop - 19th Jun 18
Minor Car Accident! What Happens After You Report Your Accident to Your Insurer - 19th Jun 18
US Majors Flush Out A Major Pivot Low and What’s Next - 18th Jun 18
Cocoa Commodities Trading Analysis - 18th Jun 18
Stock Market Consolidating in an Uptrend - 18th Jun 18
Russell Has Gone Up 7 Weeks in a Row. EXTREMELY Bullish for Stocks - 18th Jun 18
What Happens Next to Stocks when Tech Massively Outperforms Utilities and Consumer Staples - 18th Jun 18
The Trillion Dollar Market You’ve Never Heard Of - 18th Jun 18
The Corruption of Capitalism - 17th Jun 18
North Korea, Trade Wars, Precious Metals and Bitcoin - 17th Jun 18
Climate Change and Fish Stocks – Burning Oxygen! - 17th Jun 18
A $1,180 Ticket to NEW Trading Opportunities, FREE! - 16th Jun 18
Gold Bullish on Fed Interest Rate Hike - 16th Jun 18
Respite for Bitcoin Traders Might Be Deceptive - 16th Jun 18
The Euro Crashed Yesterday. Bearish for Euro and Bullish for USD - 15th Jun 18
Inflation Trade, in Progress Since Gold Kicked it Off - 15th Jun 18
Can Saudi Arabia Prevent The Next Oil Shock? - 15th Jun 18
The Biggest Online Gambling Companies - 15th Jun 18
Powell's Excess Reserve Change and Gold - 15th Jun 18
Is This a Big Sign of a Big Stock Market Turn? - 15th Jun 18
Will Italy Sink the EU and Boost Gold? - 15th Jun 18
Bumper Crash! Land Rover Discovery Sport vs Audi - 15th Jun 18
Stock Market Topping Pattern or Just Pause Before Going Higher? - 14th Jun 18
Is the ECB Ending QE a Good Thing? Markets Think So - 14th Jun 18
Yield Curve Continues to Flatten. A Bullish Sign for the Stock Market - 14th Jun 18
How Online Gambling has Impacted the Economy - 14th Jun 18
Crude Oil Price Targeting $58 ppb Before Finding Support - 14th Jun 18
Stock Market Near Another Top? - 14th Jun 18
Thorpe Park REAL Walking Dead Living Nightmare Zombie Car Park Ride Experience! - 14th Jun 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

5 "Tells" that the Stock Markets Are About to Reverse

Gold and The Fiscal Cliff

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012 Dec 30, 2012 - 09:09 AM GMT

By: Clif_Droke

Commodities

The price of gold has been hit by selling under concerns over the upcoming U.S. "fiscal cliff." At least that's what the news media's explanation for gold's decline has been. Here's what Reuters had to say in a recent news article:

"U.S. stocks sold off late in the day to close at session lows on Wednesday as talks to avert a year-end fiscal crisis turned sour, even as investors still expect a deal....


"President Barack Obama and congressional Republicans are struggling to come up with a deal to avoid early 2013 tax hikes and spending cuts that many economists say could send the U.S. economy into recession."

Now here's the problem with trying to apply "rational" analysis of the news headlines in making gold price predictions: because the financial markets are by nature irrational and volatile, you can never know from one day to the next how the market will react to a certain piece of news or legislation.

For instance, doesn't it make sense that if the U.S. falls off the fiscal cliff and a recession is thereby caused that gold would benefit from the safe haven inflows that would surely follow? Logic dictates that scared investors would transfer money from equities and into gold and gold equivalents to escape the punishment that paper assets would presumably suffer in a fiscal cliff scenario. But as we've seen all too many times in the past, the market isn't always logical.

All of this is by way of preface to a point that I've made many times in this newsletter, namely that the best approach to gold is a trading approach which involves buying only when the technical conditions are clearly ripe for a rally. And we haven't had a technical buy signal for gold lately.

Fundamental analysis, while helpful at times, is no substitute for a good technical discipline. That's why gold with all its bullish longer-term fundamentals can be under selling pressure in the short term. It doesn't really matter what the actual reason is; the only "reason" we need concern ourselves with is that right now there are more sellers than buyers. Until this situation reverses we'll remain in cash and let the gold market sort itself out.

It has been reported that John Paulson's hedge fund group holds $3.67 billion in shares of the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD). In July, gold-related assets of one of his funds comprised 44% of total assets. As one analyst has observed, "The big correction in the mining stocks has hurt his performance and reputation." Businessweek reported that two of Paulson's largest funds, Paulson Advantage and Advantage Plus, lost 36 percent and 52 percent in 2011. The two flagship funds are down 6.3 percent and 9.3 percent as of the end of May with losses continuing into July.

Paulson is a giant of sorts in the hedge fund world. He made a $25 billion fortune for his hedge fund investors during the 2008 credit crisis. Although Paulson is widely regarded as a true hedge fund king, his mistiming of the gold market has cost him dearly in the near term. While it's very possible (I would even say likely) that Paulson will eventually be proven correct on his big bet on gold, the point is that you can be the greatest hedge fund trader on Wall Street and still get punished by Mr. Market for ignoring the short-term technicals in preference for the longer-term fundamentals. Technicals rule over fundamentals in the short term. Investors ignore this truism at their peril.

Now having said all this, there's a chance that the fiscal cliff resolution could turn out to be favorable for gold. We'll let the price and volume action of the gold ETFs speak for us, and a 2-day higher close above the 15-day moving average would speak very loudly indeed.

I note with interest that the aforementioned SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) is hovering slightly under its 150-day (30-week) moving average and is trying to re-establish support around it. Long-time readers of this report will remember the importance I attached on this longer-term trend line during the boom years of 2009-2011, for the gold ETF always respected the 150-day MA as the proverbial "line in the sand" during corrections in those years. During the entirety the 2009-2011 rally, the gold ETF never once penetrated the 150-day MA until late 2011 when the last bull swing ended.

GLD Daily Chart

Since then GLD has fluctuated above and below the 150-day MA. It tried to establish a new long-term base of support above it in this past summer's rally and is now testing this vital trend line once again. Note also the extremely high amount of trading volume in GLD that occurred between Dec. 18 and Dec. 20. This could be a sign of investor capitulation, i.e. a "selling climax," which in turn would be a bullish sign for the interim gold outlook. I'd view as very favorable the prospects for a first quarter rally if GLD manages to get back above the 150-day MA next week.

2014: America's Date With Destiny

Take a journey into the future with me as we discover what the future may unfold in the fateful period leading up to - and following - the 120-year cycle bottom in late 2014.

Picking up where I left off in my previous work, The Stock Market Cycles, I expand on the Kress cycle narrative and explain how the 120-year Mega cycle influences the market, the economy and other aspects of American life and culture. My latest book, 2014: America's Date With Destiny, examines the most vital issues facing America and the global economy in the 2-3 years ahead.

The new book explains that the credit crisis of 2008 was merely the prelude in an intensifying global credit storm. If the basis for my prediction continue true to form - namely the long-term Kress cycles - the worst part of the crisis lies ahead in the years 2013-2014. The book is now available for sale at:

http://www.clifdroke.com/books/destiny.html

Order today to receive your autographed copy and a FREE 1-month trial subscription to the Momentum Strategies Report newsletter.

By Clif Droke
www.clifdroke.com

Clif Droke is the editor of the daily Gold & Silver Stock Report. Published daily since 2002, the report provides forecasts and analysis of the leading gold, silver, uranium and energy stocks from a short-term technical standpoint. He is also the author of numerous books, including 'How to Read Chart Patterns for Greater Profits.' For more information visit www.clifdroke.com

Clif Droke Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules