Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Stock Market Crash and Recession Indicator Warning: Extreme Danger Ahead - Harry_Dent
2. Is This How World War III Begins, In Almost Complete Silence? - Jeff_Berwick
3.Trump Wins 2nd Presidential Debate, Betfair Betting Markets Odds Bounce - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Why Krugman, Roubini, Rogoff And Buffett Dislike Gold - GoldCore
5.End of SPX Stock Market Correction Nears - Tony_Caldaro
6.Get Ready for the Future - Exponential Machine Intelligence Mega-trend towards Singularity - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Housing Market Bubble II – It’s Happening Again! - Andy_Sutton
8.FTSE BrExit Stock Market Panic Crash Resolves towards New All Time Highs - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Can Trump Still Win Despite Opinion Polls, Bookmakers and Pundits all Saying Hillary has Won? - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Gold’s, Miners’ Stops Run - Zeal_LLC
Last 7 days
Establishment Mainstream Media Elite Buys US Election for Hillary Clinton, Time Running Out for Trump - 23rd Oct 16
Inflation About To Explode Higher - 22nd Oct 16
Still waiting for SPX uptrend to kick off - 22nd Oct 16
Will a Rising US Dollar Crush Gold’s Fledgling Bull? - 22nd Oct 16
Why The Global Economy Will Disintegrate Rapidly Back to Olduvai Gorge - 22nd Oct 16
GLD Bleeds Out; Weekly Gold Update - 22nd Oct 16
Stock Market Investment Success Through the “Investment Rule of 72” - 21st Oct 16
The Final Bottom in Gold - WHEN - 21st Oct 16
Gold Green Lights Upleg - 21st Oct 16
Demand for US Mints Silver Eagles has ‘Returned with a Vengeance’ - 21st Oct 16
Central Bankers Can't Stop The Death Blow Of The Post US Election Recession - 21st Oct 16
The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid: Golden Opportunity for Frontier Asia - 21st Oct 16
Have You Taken These 4 Simple Steps to Improve Your Trading? - 21st Oct 16
The Stock Market is an Accident Waiting to Happen - 20th Oct 16
It's Rally Time for Gold and Silver Equities - 20th Oct 16
Cashless Society – Risks Posed By The War On Cash - 20th Oct 16
China's insane Housing Market Will Tumble and Crash in 2017 - 20th Oct 16
Donald Trump Bounces Going into 3rd and Final US Presidential Election Debate - 20th Oct 16
Attention Please: Phase Two of the Gold and Silver Train Now leaving the Station. All Aboard? - 19th Oct 16
How to Successfully Trade a Stock Market Crash - Black Monday October 19th 1987 - 19th Oct 16
Tesla, Apple and Uber Push Lithium Prices Even Higher - 18th Oct 16
Silver, Debt, and Deficits – From an Election Year Perspective - 18th Oct 16
UK Property Market: Slow Growth Does Not Equate To Decline - 18th Oct 16
Trump Election Victory is in Your Power - 18th Oct 16
Stock Market More to Come! - 18th Oct 16
This Past Week in Gold and Silver - 17th Oct 16
A Falling Stock Market Cannot Be Allowed - Financial Repression Is Now “In-Play”! - 17th Oct 16
Commodities, Forex and Stock Market Trend Forecasts - 17th Oct 16
Stock Market Crash..or No Crash? - 17th Oct 16
A perspective on risk rally – Risks abound but Stock Market is Confident - 17th Oct 16
Bank of England Blames Brexit for Sterling Drop Inflation, Masks QE Money Printing Cause - 17th Oct 16
From Piety to Pride to Pity, America's Racial Divide - 17th Oct 16
Is Obama Juicing US Government Spending To Get Hillary Clinton Elected? - 16th Oct 16
Seek Your Independence: Anything Else Will Destroy You - 16th Oct 16
SNL - US Presidential Debates, 1st, 2nd, VP - Like You've Never Seen them Before! - 16th Oct 16
End of Economic Growth Sparks Wide Discontent - 16th Oct 16
Donald Trump on Life Support, May Abandon Election Campaign and War on Republican Party - 15th Oct 16
The Gold Manipulators Not Only Will Be Punished, They Have Been Punished - 15th Oct 16
Black Votes Matter - Is the US on the Verge of Mass Race Riots? - 15th Oct 16
Gold Stocks Screaming Buy - 14th Oct 16
Brace Yourself for the Quadrillion-Dollar Reckoning - 14th Oct 16
The Next Recession Will Blow Out the Budget - 14th Oct 16
John Mauldin: My Infrastructure Plan to Save the US Economy - 14th Oct 16
World War III On The Brink: War Will Continue Until It Triggers Economic Collapse - 14th Oct 16
US T-Bill Rejection At Ports In Progress - 14th Oct 16
These 2 Debt Instruments Pose Peril to Millions of Investors - 14th Oct 16
China’s Rocketing Housing Market Real Estate Bubble - 14th Oct 16
DIY Winter Home Maintenance Money Saving 22 Point Checklist to Get Ready for Winter/Fall - 14th Oct 16
US Stock Market, Big Picture View - 13th Oct 16
Stock Buybacks Main Force Driving Bull Market; Rewards Investors and Starves Innovation - 13th Oct 16
SPX Gapping Down... - 13th Oct 16
Syria - Obama Stepped Back From Brink, Will Hillary? - 13th Oct 16
The Structure and Future of Gold in the Investment and Monetary World - 13th Oct 16
Can Trump Still Win Despite Opinion Polls, Bookmakers and Pundits all Saying Hillary has Won? - 12th Oct 16
Gold and Crude Oil - General Stock Market Links - 12th Oct 16
Samsung's Galaxy Battery Just The Tip Of The Iceberg - 12th Oct 16
Hillary: Deceit, Debt, Delusions (Part Two) - 12th Oct 16
Gold and Silver Metals Show Strength Relative to the USD Index - 12th Oct 16
Announcing Trader Education Week -- a Free Event to Help You Learn to Spot Trading Opportunities - 12th Oct 16
Confirmed Stock Market Sell Signals - 11th Oct 16
Hillary Deceit, Debt, Delusions - 11th Oct 16
Trump Support Crashes to New Low of 6.4 on Betfair Odds Betting Market - 11th Oct 16
The World Is Turning Dangerously Insular - 11th Oct 16
An American Tragedy: Trump Won Big - 11th Oct 16

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

LEARN to Trade

Gold and The Fiscal Cliff

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012 Dec 30, 2012 - 09:09 AM GMT

By: Clif_Droke


The price of gold has been hit by selling under concerns over the upcoming U.S. "fiscal cliff." At least that's what the news media's explanation for gold's decline has been. Here's what Reuters had to say in a recent news article:

"U.S. stocks sold off late in the day to close at session lows on Wednesday as talks to avert a year-end fiscal crisis turned sour, even as investors still expect a deal....

"President Barack Obama and congressional Republicans are struggling to come up with a deal to avoid early 2013 tax hikes and spending cuts that many economists say could send the U.S. economy into recession."

Now here's the problem with trying to apply "rational" analysis of the news headlines in making gold price predictions: because the financial markets are by nature irrational and volatile, you can never know from one day to the next how the market will react to a certain piece of news or legislation.

For instance, doesn't it make sense that if the U.S. falls off the fiscal cliff and a recession is thereby caused that gold would benefit from the safe haven inflows that would surely follow? Logic dictates that scared investors would transfer money from equities and into gold and gold equivalents to escape the punishment that paper assets would presumably suffer in a fiscal cliff scenario. But as we've seen all too many times in the past, the market isn't always logical.

All of this is by way of preface to a point that I've made many times in this newsletter, namely that the best approach to gold is a trading approach which involves buying only when the technical conditions are clearly ripe for a rally. And we haven't had a technical buy signal for gold lately.

Fundamental analysis, while helpful at times, is no substitute for a good technical discipline. That's why gold with all its bullish longer-term fundamentals can be under selling pressure in the short term. It doesn't really matter what the actual reason is; the only "reason" we need concern ourselves with is that right now there are more sellers than buyers. Until this situation reverses we'll remain in cash and let the gold market sort itself out.

It has been reported that John Paulson's hedge fund group holds $3.67 billion in shares of the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD). In July, gold-related assets of one of his funds comprised 44% of total assets. As one analyst has observed, "The big correction in the mining stocks has hurt his performance and reputation." Businessweek reported that two of Paulson's largest funds, Paulson Advantage and Advantage Plus, lost 36 percent and 52 percent in 2011. The two flagship funds are down 6.3 percent and 9.3 percent as of the end of May with losses continuing into July.

Paulson is a giant of sorts in the hedge fund world. He made a $25 billion fortune for his hedge fund investors during the 2008 credit crisis. Although Paulson is widely regarded as a true hedge fund king, his mistiming of the gold market has cost him dearly in the near term. While it's very possible (I would even say likely) that Paulson will eventually be proven correct on his big bet on gold, the point is that you can be the greatest hedge fund trader on Wall Street and still get punished by Mr. Market for ignoring the short-term technicals in preference for the longer-term fundamentals. Technicals rule over fundamentals in the short term. Investors ignore this truism at their peril.

Now having said all this, there's a chance that the fiscal cliff resolution could turn out to be favorable for gold. We'll let the price and volume action of the gold ETFs speak for us, and a 2-day higher close above the 15-day moving average would speak very loudly indeed.

I note with interest that the aforementioned SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) is hovering slightly under its 150-day (30-week) moving average and is trying to re-establish support around it. Long-time readers of this report will remember the importance I attached on this longer-term trend line during the boom years of 2009-2011, for the gold ETF always respected the 150-day MA as the proverbial "line in the sand" during corrections in those years. During the entirety the 2009-2011 rally, the gold ETF never once penetrated the 150-day MA until late 2011 when the last bull swing ended.

GLD Daily Chart

Since then GLD has fluctuated above and below the 150-day MA. It tried to establish a new long-term base of support above it in this past summer's rally and is now testing this vital trend line once again. Note also the extremely high amount of trading volume in GLD that occurred between Dec. 18 and Dec. 20. This could be a sign of investor capitulation, i.e. a "selling climax," which in turn would be a bullish sign for the interim gold outlook. I'd view as very favorable the prospects for a first quarter rally if GLD manages to get back above the 150-day MA next week.

2014: America's Date With Destiny

Take a journey into the future with me as we discover what the future may unfold in the fateful period leading up to - and following - the 120-year cycle bottom in late 2014.

Picking up where I left off in my previous work, The Stock Market Cycles, I expand on the Kress cycle narrative and explain how the 120-year Mega cycle influences the market, the economy and other aspects of American life and culture. My latest book, 2014: America's Date With Destiny, examines the most vital issues facing America and the global economy in the 2-3 years ahead.

The new book explains that the credit crisis of 2008 was merely the prelude in an intensifying global credit storm. If the basis for my prediction continue true to form - namely the long-term Kress cycles - the worst part of the crisis lies ahead in the years 2013-2014. The book is now available for sale at:

Order today to receive your autographed copy and a FREE 1-month trial subscription to the Momentum Strategies Report newsletter.

By Clif Droke

Clif Droke is the editor of the daily Gold & Silver Stock Report. Published daily since 2002, the report provides forecasts and analysis of the leading gold, silver, uranium and energy stocks from a short-term technical standpoint. He is also the author of numerous books, including 'How to Read Chart Patterns for Greater Profits.' For more information visit

Clif Droke Archive

© 2005-2016 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife