Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Are UK Savings Interest Rates Finally Starting to Rise? Best Cash ISA 2017 - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Inflation Tsunami - Supermarkets, Retail Sector Crisis 2017, EU Suicide and Burning Stocks - Nadeem_Walayat
3.Big Moves in the World Stock Markets - Big Bases - Rambus_Chartology
4.The Next Financial Implosion Is Not Going To Be About The Banks! - Gordon_T_Long
5.Why EU BrExit Single Market Access Hard line is European Union Committing Suicide - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Trump Ramps Up US Military Debt Spending In Preparations for China War - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Watch What Happens When Silver Price Hits $26...  - MoneyMetals
8.Stock Market Fake Risk, Fake Return? Market Crash? - 2nd Mar 17 - Axel_Merk
9.Global Inflation Surges, Central Banks Losing Control and Triggered the Wage Price Spiral? - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Why Gold Will Boom In 2017 - James Burgess
Last 7 days
Top Ten US Dollar Risks - 27th Mar 17
The Popularity of Gambling and Investing Amongst Students - 27th Mar 17
Is Political Betting on the Rise? - 27th Mar 17
US Stock Market Consolidation Time - 27th Mar 17
Russia Crisis - Maps That Signal Growing Instability and Unrest - 27th Mar 17
Goldman Sachs Backing A Copper Boom In 2017 - 27th Mar 17
Foundation – Fall Of The American Galactic Empire - 27th Mar 17
Stock Market More Correction Ahead - 27th Mar 17
US Dollar Inflection Point - 27th Mar 17
Political Week Presurres US Stock Market - 25th Mar 17
London Terror Attack Red Herring, Real Issue is Age of Reason vs Religion - 25th Mar 17
Will Washington Risk WW3 to Block an Emerging EU-Russia Superstate - 25th Mar 17
Unaccountable Military Industrial Complex Is Destroying America and the Rest Of The World Too - 25th Mar 17
Silver Mining Stock Fundamentals - 24th Mar 17
A Walk Down the Dark Road of Bad Government - 24th Mar 17
Is Stock Market Flash Crash Postponed Until Monday? - 24th Mar 17
Stock Market Bubble and Gold - 24th Mar 17
Maps Of Past Empires That Can Tell Us About The Future - 24th Mar 17
SNP Independent Scotland's Destiny With Economic Catastrophe, the English Subsidy - IndyRef2 - 24th Mar 17
Stock Market VIX Cycles Set To Explode March/April 2017 – Part II - 23rd Mar 17
Is Now a Good Time to Invest in the US Housing Market? - 23rd Mar 17
The Stock Market Is a Present-Day Version of Pavlov’s Dog - 23rd Mar 17
US Budget - There’s Almost Nothing Left To Cut - 23rd Mar 17
Stock Market Upward Reversal Or Just Quick Rebound Before Another Leg Down? - 23rd Mar 17
Trends to Look Out For as a Modern-day Landlord - 23rd Mar 17
Here’s Why Interstate Health Insurance Won’t Fix Obamacare / Trumpcare - 23rd Mar 17
China’s Biggest Limitations Determine the Future of East Asia - 23rd Mar 17
This is About So Much More Than Trump and Brexit - 23rd Mar 17
Trump Stock Market Rally Over? 20% Bear Drop By Mid Summer? - 22nd Mar 17
Trump Added $3 Trillion in Wealth to Stock Market Participants - 22nd Mar 17
What's Next for the US Dollar, Gold and Stocks? - 22nd Mar 17
MSM Bond Market Full Nonsense Mode as ‘Trump Trades’ Unwind on Schedule - 22nd Mar 17
Peak Gold – Biggest Gold Story Not Being Reported - 22nd Mar 17
Return of Sovereign France, Europe’s Changing Landscape - 22nd Mar 17
Trump Stocks Bull Market Rolling Over? You Were Warned! - 22nd Mar 17
Stock Market Charts That Scream “This Is It” - Here’s What to Do - 22nd Mar 17
Raising the Minimum Wage Is a Jobs Killing Move - 22nd Mar 17
Potential Bottoming Patterns in Gold and Silver Precious Metals Stocks Complex... - 22nd Mar 17
UK Stagflation, Soaring Inflation CPI 2.3%, RPI 3.2%, Real 4.4% - 21st Mar 17
The Demise of the Gold and Silver Bull Run is Greatly Exaggerated - 21st Mar 17
USD Decline Continues, Pull SPX Down as well? - 21st Mar 17
Trump Watershed Budget - 21st Mar 17
How do Client Acquisition Offers Affect Businesses? - 21st Mar 17
Physical Metals Demand Plus Manipulation Suits Will Break Paper Market - 20th Mar 17
Stock Market Uncertainty Following Interest Rate Increase - Will Uptrend Continue? - 20th Mar 17
Precious Metals : Who’s in Charge ? - 20th Mar 17
Stock Market Correction Continues - 20th Mar 17
Why The Status Quo Is Under Increasing Attack By 'Populist People Power' - 20th Mar 17

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Elliott Wave Trading

Stocks, Bonds, and Gold Inflection Point Market Trend Forecasts 2013

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013 Jan 06, 2013 - 12:35 PM GMT

By: Darah_Bazargan

Stock-Markets

Most are sunk in contemplation, and hopelessly clinging on to the ever- changing era of big government spending.

Central bankers and big financial institutions are borrowing money from the FED at rates near zero, and then reinvest it into the ten year or thirty year notes, which are paying 2% to 4%. From the standpoint of any financial institution, it is logical and also more profitable than say, lending to a risky borrower.


Quantitative Easing was- and is now-the Fed's response to this credit crunch, BUT!- with money being created out of thin air! And this new infusion of liquidity will inevitably flow back to the same institutions that initially purchased these long term government debt instruments! Overall, the hopeful consequence is to saturate the debt market and encourage creditors to invest elsewhere-- i.e. business owners, entrepreneurs, and the everyday consumers.

Bond prices and their corresponding yields will have an inverse correlation. If prices rise, then yields will fall. When the FED intervenes it creates the illusion of demand, making prices go up. In theory, their intent, is for bond holders to cash out with a profit, then consider loaning really-where there is MORE RISK.

Interestingly enough, this theory is only a theory, not a solution. When the government increases spending through measures of stimulus plans, the budget deficit will soar. This debt, however, must be repaid and consequently, higher taxes will largely fall on the wealthy, but also on the middle class because most, if not all will receive reduced payouts. Higher taxes will also cut back consumer spending, forcing companies to operate with fewer employees. The result is higher productivity because one worker is doing the job of two, or three in the extreme.

This all will come at a time of rising inflation because despite the Fed's efforts to keep rates (yields) low, their plan is failing. International creditors are quietly fleeing from bonds because of fears of a possible default. They will focus internally on the growth of their domestic economy. Bond holders will take their bread and butter back to their homeland to focus on the very products that create organic growth and exports for all.

Mind you, the technical picture must accommodate this inevitable outcome. And as we all watch from a far, the bond market is cracking, but has not imploded, at least not yet. I suspect that this sideways bearish pattern will ultimately give way in the early part of 2013, and at the same time initiate its Bear Market in full effect.

We have a major turning point approaching in all markets, not just bonds. The corresponding cycles for stocks and Gold, both long and short, will manifest into a decouple process that- I have long maintained!

Investors should be prepared for the coming tax hikes and rising long term capital gains, which together hold little to no incentive for owning stocks. This will be the true culprit for a worsening stock market, actually a Bear Market; while the media misdirects you with political theater to alleviate the worries of going off the fiscal cliff.

As for the Dow Jones, it too doesn't look very promising either.

But there will come a time, a time long before the Fed downsizes its balance sheet, if unemployment ever reaches 6.5%. A time far removed from improving GDP or the presumption of an economic recovery. A time when bearish conditions seem extended indefinitely and there is no end in sight! In the same breath investors will rush out of bonds and enter the only non-government asset that in the times of pervasive gloom outperforms any other market---GOLD!

The CC Report offers two subscriptions -- $9.95/month or $100/year. It is well worth the information received.

Darah
www.thecompletecoveragereport.blogspot.com

© 2012 Copyright Darah Bazargan - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife