Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Climate Change Mass Extinction - Birds, Bees and Bugs: Going Going Gone - Richard_Mills
2.A Purrrfect Gold Price Setup! - Peter_Degraaf
3.Who Finances America's Borrowing? Recession Indicator for Independent Thinkers Part 2 - F_F_Wiley
4.America’s One-sided Domestic Financial War - Raymond_Matison
5.Gold Price Summer Doldrums - Zeal_LLC
6.Two Key Events Will Unleash Gold - Jim_Willie_CB
7.Billionaire Schools Teacher in NAFTA Trade Talks - Richard_Mills
8.Get Out Of Crypto Cannabis Bubble Before It Pops and Move Into Bargain Basement Miners - Jeb_Handwerger
9.Stock Market Could Pullback for 1-2 weeks, But Medium Term Bullish - Troy_Bombardia
10.G7 Chaos, Central Banks and US Fed Will Drive Stock Prices This Week - Chris_Vermeulen
Last 7 days
Trumponomics Stock Market 2018 - The Manchurian President (1/2) - 21st Jul 18
The Death of Japan's Real Estate Dream - 21st Jul 18
SMIGGLE Amazing Mega Shopping Haul, Pencil Cases, Smigglets and Giant Back Packs! - 21st Jul 18
Cayton Bay Beach Caravan Park Holiday - What's it Like? - 21st Jul 18
Gold Stocks Investment Wanes - 20th Jul 18
Diversifying Your Stock Investing Strategies is Smart Investing - 20th Jul 18
Custom Global Stock Market Indexes May Be Sounding Alarms - 20th Jul 18
S&P 500 Just 2% Below Record High, But There's More Stock Market Uncertainty - 19th Jul 18
Stock Market Technical Picture - 19th Jul 18
Gold Market Signal vs. Noise - 19th Jul 18
Don’t Get Too Bullish on Gold - 19th Jul 18
Bitcoin Price Rallies to Upper Channel – What Next? - 19th Jul 18
Trump Manchurian President Embarrasses Putin By Farcically Blowing his Russian Agent Cover - 19th Jul 18
The Fonzie–Ponzi Theory of Government Debt: An Update - 19th Jul 18
Will the Fed’s Interest Rate Tightening Trigger Another Financial Crisis? - 18th Jul 18
Stock Market Investor “Buy the Dip” Mentality is Still Strong, Which is Bullish for Stocks - 18th Jul 18
Stock Market Longer-Term Charts Show Incredible Potential - 18th Jul 18
A Better Yield Curve for Predicting the Stock Market is Bullish - 18th Jul 18
U.S. Stock Market Cycles Update - 18th Jul 18
Cayton Bay Hoseasons Caravan Park Holiday Summer 2018 Review - 18th Jul 18
What Did Crude Oil - Platinum Link Tell Us Last Week? - 17th Jul 18
Gold And The Elusive Chase For Profits - 17th Jul 18
Crude Oil May Not Find Support Above $60 This Time - 17th Jul 18
How Crazy It Is to Short Gold with RSI Close to 30 - 16th Jul 18
Markets Pay Attention Moment - China’s Bubble Economy Ripe for Bursting - 16th Jul 18
Stock Market Uptrend Continues, But... - 16th Jul 18
Emerging Markets Could Be Starting A Relief Rally - 16th Jul 18
(Only) a Near-term Stock Market Top? - 16th Jul 18
Trump Fee-Fi-Foe-Fum Declares European Union America's Enemy! - 16th Jul 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

5 "Tells" that the Stock Markets Are About to Reverse

Natural Gas – Uncovering Trade Potentials

Commodities / Natural Gas Jan 25, 2013 - 11:51 AM GMT

By: Michael_Noonan

Commodities

We like Natural Gas from the long side, ever since the 9 January "double bottom." What was needed was a weak correction, or retest of that day's low, but it never came as price kept rallying higher every day. Last night, while reviewing markets, in general, this chart jumped out for a short-term short position.

The first thing noticed was the wide range bar on Tuesday, second bar from end. The close was weak, just under mid-range the bar, and volume increased. Increased volume on a wide range bar is always worth noting. Turns out, there was also a three day clustering of closes, and all of this occurring at a potential resistance area, noted by the broken horizontal lines where a downside gap formed.


The daily trend is still down, so taking a short position in a down trend makes sense. We knew if there were price weakness during Thursday's trade, it was a reason to go short. All we had to do was monitor intra day activity.

Natural Gas Daily Chart

The best part of following developing market activity is that it eliminates guesswork and the need of following opinion, or gut feel. The market provides opportunities all the time. Incorporating a set of rules for taking action when set-ups like these occur puts us in a decided trading edge opportunity.

All we needed to see was weakness, on increased volume, followed by a weak rally, and the market was saying this potential short is a "go." You can see where the day activity remained under short-term resistance, and a wide range bar lower, with a poor close, on increased volume was the message from the market that we wanted to see, based on a decision made the prior evening.

Distractions being what they are, we missed the weak rally for establishing a better position. Note how volume dropped sharply as price rallied two bars later. Having missed it, we caught the next move down, also on increased volume, for a short position.

Anyone who believes markets are random simply has no clue what developing market activity means. That ignorance forms the basis for making such irrational statements, and that form of ignorance spreads as an acceptable view of how unpredictable "random" events are in the markets. To each their own.

What remains now is managing the trade. a protective buy stop is placed above the high, for anything can happen. We have no clue as to HOW the market will develop from here. Even though we like Natural Gas as a long potential, we remain flexible enough to accept a trade potential opposite of expressed sentiment. Opinions always take a back seat to developing market activity.

A buy order has been placed to cover half the position at 3.420, just in case price reaches that area. It would lock in a profit and reduce risk exposure on the trade. If half the position is filled there, managing the balance has more breathing room.

Of course, we have no clue how the market will develop from here, and price can just as readily reverse and rally. All we know is that the probability of a winning trade is greater than that of losing, and we cannot ask for more.

Natural Gas 20-Minute Chart

By Michael Noonan

http://edgetraderplus.com

Michael Noonan, mn@edgetraderplus.com, is a Chicago-based trader with over 30 years in the business. His sole approach to analysis is derived from developing market pattern behavior, found in the form of Price, Volume, and Time, and it is generated from the best source possible, the market itself.

© 2013 Copyright Michael Noonan - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Michael Noonan Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules