Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Stock Market in DANGER of Strangling the Bears to Death - Nadeem_Walayat
2. Germany Pivoting East, Exit US Dollar, Enter Gold Standard - Jim_Willie_CB
3.Flight MH17 – Kiev Flash Mob's Last False Flag? - Andrew_McKillop
4.Stock Market Crash Nightmare! - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold - The Million DOLLAR Question... - Rambus_Chartology
6.Gold And Silver – BRICS And Germany Will Pave The Way - Michael_Noonan
7.The Jewish Selfish Gene, People Chosen by God, Everyone Else is Goyim to Kill - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Israeli Promised Land Dream - The Criminal Roadmap Towards “Greater Israel”? - Felicity Arbuthnot
9.Which Way is Inflation Blowing? Watch Commodities - Gary_Dorsch
10.U.S. Economy Quarterly Review and Implications for 2014-2015 - Lacy Hunt
Last 5 days
Death of the U.S. Dollar? Gold an Inflation Hedge? Really? - 29th July 14
We’re Ready to Profit in the Coming Gold Price Correction—Are You? - 29th July 14
Their Economy Will Collapse, Including Ours - 29th July 14
Silver Prices – Megaphone Patterns - 29th July 14
Real U.S. Interest Rates - Fed Exit a Blue Pill? - 29th July 14
Why Israel Should NOT Exist, Just Like Any Other Rogue State - 29th July 14
Gold Still Looking Good - 29th July 14
Silver Price Set To Star - 29th July 14
Our Population Growth Totalitarian Future - 29th July 14
World War 1 Cause and Consequences - The Planned Destruction of Christendom - 29th July 14
Will Crashing Commodities Crash the Stock Market? - 29th July 14
Ukraine MH17 - Washington Thinks Americans Are Fools - 29th July 14
Stock Market Bubble Warning - 29th July 14
Gold Price and U.S. Dollar’s July Rally - 28th July 14
Second Quarter Corporate Earnings: Marching Toward a Strong Economic Recovery - 28th July 14
Time to Put a New Economic Tool in the Box - 28th July 14
Mossad in Gaza, Ukraine and the Cult Of The All-Powerful Elite - 28th July 14
Elliott Wave Gold Price Projection Since 1970 - 28th July 14
Investors Remain Uncertain As Stock Fluctuate Near Long-Term Highs - Will The Uptrend Extend? - 28th July 14
The Mass Psychology Of Decline - 28th July 14
Will the US Destroy the World? - Don’t Expect to Live Much Longer - 28th July 14
GDM and GDXJ Gold Stocks In-depth Look - 28th July 14
Stock Market One FINAL High? - 28th July 14
What It Means - Paradigm Collapse And Culture Crisis - 27th July 14
Wall Street Shadow Banking: You Can’t Taper a Ponzi Scheme: “Time to Reboot” - 27th July 14
6 Tips for Picking Winning Gold Mining Stocks - 27th July 14
Israel's War on Children, Exterminating the Palestinians Future - 27th July 14
Guilt By Insinuation - How American Propaganda Works - 26th July 14
Surprise Nuclear Attack On Russia To Liberate Ukraine - 26th July 14
Use "Magic" Of Gold/Silver Ratio To Greatly Increase Your Physical Holdings - 26th July 14
Derivatives Market Species Origins - Abuse, Props and Risks - 26th July 14
Stock Market Manipulation and Technical Analysis - 26th July 14
China’s Stock Market Finally Looks Like A Buy - 26th July 14
Ed Milliband Fears Israel Jewish Fundamentalist Gaza War Massacres Backlash - 26th July 14
The Big Energy = Power Battle Is Coming - 25th July 14
USrael - Zionists in Control of America's Goyim Brainwashed Second Coming Slaves - 25th July 14
More Weakness Ahead for Gold Miners - 25th July 14
Gold Price Strong Season Starts - 25th July 14
Geopolitics and Markets Red Flags Raised by the Fed and the BIS on Risk-taking - 25th July 14
Gold Lockdown Until Options Expiry - New Singapore Gold Contract Threatens Price Manipulation - 25th July 14
The Bond Markets, Black Swans, and the Tiny Spirit of Santo - 25th July 14
No Road Map For Avoiding The Future - 25th July 14
Israeli War Machine Concentrating Women and Children into UN Schools Before Killing Them - C4News - 25th July 14
Israeli Government Paying Jewish Fundamentalist Students to Post Facebook Gaza War Propaganda - 25th July 14
Why the Stock Market Is Heading For A Fall - This Time Is Not Different - 25th July 14
An Economic “Nuclear Strike” on Moscow, A “War of Degrees” - 25th July 14
BBC, Western Media Working for Israeli Agenda of Perpetual War to Steal Arab Land - 25th July 14
Ukraine: What To Do When Economic Growth Is Gone - 24th July 14
Stock Market Clear and Present Danger Zone - 24th July 14
The Five Elements to Creating a Something-for-Nothing Society - 24th July 14
Instability is the New Normal? - 24th July 14
Israel's Suicide Bombers Over Gaza - 24th July 14
EUR-AUD Heads Into The Danger Zone - 24th July 14
Tesco Supermarket Death Spiral Accelerates as Customers HATE the Mega Brand - 24th July 14
Ukraine MH17 Crisis - Best Remember Who Your Friends Are - 24th July 14
Three Reasons Why Gold Price and Gold Stocks Will Rise - 24th July 14
HUI Gold Bugs Fighting To Break Downtrend - 23rd July 14
What Putin Knows About Flight MH17 - 23rd July 14
Why Microsoft Will Continue to Rebound, Huge Upside Potential - 23rd July 14
Will Putin Survive? - 23rd July 14

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

The Biggest lie in Stock Market History Revealed

Stock Market Uptrend Trying to Extend

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013 Mar 23, 2013 - 07:08 PM GMT

By: Tony_Caldaro

Stock-Markets

Quite a choppy week in the US markets after four gaps openings. We had to go back to the end of June 2012 to find a similar week of indecision. That one ended with the indices eventually moving higher. For the week the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Asian markets lost 1.6%, European markets lost 1.9%, and the DJ World index lost 1.0%. On the economic front, reports continue to come in positive. On the uptick: housing starts, building permits, the FHFA index, existing home sales, the Philly FED, leading indicators, the WLEI, and the monetary base. On the downtick: the NAHB index and weekly jobless claims rose. Next week we get the final revision to Q4 GDP, the Chicago PMI and PCE prices.


LONG TERM: bull market

With the DOW at all time new highs, and the SPX recently within 12 points of a new high, one could certainly state the FED’s liquidity programs, and Government spending, have averted a depression. The FED recognizes this accomplishment, as most other central banks are effectively doing the same thing. So why is it some american politicans complain about government spending on one hand. Then with the other hand pass bills to continue it. Politics!

The Cycle wave [1] bull market continues to unfold from the March 2009 low. The first two, of five, Primary waves ended in 2011, and Primary III has been underway since then. Primary I divided into five Major waves with a subdividing Major wave 1. Primary III is also dividing into five Major waves, but both Major waves 1 and 3 are subdividing. Major waves 1 and 2 completed in mid-2012. Major wave 3 has been underway since that low. Intermediate waves i and i completed in late-2012, and Intermediate wave iii has been underway since then.

Before this bull market concludes it will still need to complete Intermediate waves iii, iv and v to end Major wave 3. Then after a Major wave 4 correction, a Major 5 uptrend to complete Primary III. Finally, a Primary IV correction will be followed with a Primary V uptrend. We expect this wave pattern to conclude in late-winter/early-spring of 2014. With the SPX topping out somewhere between 1650-1700. Until then enjoy the bull market.

MEDIUM TERM: the relentless uptrend continues

After a choppy week, and then a thorough review of the charts, we must conclude the market is still in an uptrend until it breaks what we consider critical support. This Intermediate wave iii has naturally been dividing into five Minor waves: SPX 1424, 1398, 1531, 1485 and 1564 so far. Minor 1 was a simple wave, Minor 2 an irregular flat, Minor 3 subdivided into five Minutes waves, Minor 4 a zigzag, and now Minor 5 may be subdividing into five Minute waves as well.

Despite the extreme overbought condition on the weekly chart, and the negative divergences on the daily charts, there may been a bit more upside before this 3 of 3 of 3 wave concludes. As a result we have upgraded the SPX hourly chart to display this potential subdivision. The upside may be limited to the OEW 1576 pivot range, or even extend to the 1614 pivot range. Currently Minor wave 5 (79 pts) is nearly equal to Minor 1 (81 pts). If this uptrend extends to the 1614 pivot, then Minor 5 would be about equal to Minor 3 (133 pts). These are natural fibonacci wave relationships.

The one caveat is that the market does not break below critical support, which is now at SPX 1539. Should this occur, then a downtrend is likely underway. With the market closing at SPX 1557 on friday, there appears to be about 20 points risk on the downside with the potential upside may be as high as 60 points. After this uptrend does end, we then expect about a 4.5% correction before the next uptrend begins.

SHORT TERM

Medium/short term support is at the 1552 and 1523 pivots, with resistance at the 1576 and 1614 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week overbought. The short term OEW charts vacillated all week between positive and negative, ending positive, with the reversal level at SPX 1552.

As noted above we are allowing for a potential extension of Minor wave 5 from the late February 1485 low. The two largest pullbacks during this rally have been a quick 24 points (1525-1501) and a zigzag 25 points (1564-1539). These two lows could be labeled Minute ii and Minute iv of Minor 5. The price activity off that low, SPX 1562 and then 1544, could be Micro waves 1 and 2 of Minute v. Should the market clear SPX 1562, then 1564, it is certainly on its way higher. Keep in mind, however, a drop below SPX 1539 would invalidate this count signalling a downtrend is probably underway. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

The Asian markets were mostly lower losing 1.6% on the week. China, Hong Kong, India, Singapore and S. Korea remain in downtrends, with China improving.

The European markets were all lower on the week losing 1.9%. Greece and Italy remain in downtrends.

The Commodity equity group were all lower losing 2.2%. Brazil and Russia are in downtrends.

The DJ World index is uptrending but lost 1.0% on the week.

COMMODITIES

Bonds remain in a downtrend but finished flat on the week.

Crude is still downtrending but gained 0.5% on the week.

Gold is downtrending as well but gained 1.1% on the week.

The USD continues to uptrend gaining 0.5% on the week.

NEXT WEEK

Tuesday kicks of this holiday shortened week with Durable goods, Case-Shiller, Consumer confidence and New home sales. Wednesday: Pending home sales. Thursday: Q4 GDP (est. +0.3%), weekly Jobless claims, and the Chicago PMI. Friday, while the markets are closed: Personal income/spending, PCE prices and Consumer sentiment. As for the FED, on monday at 1:15 PM FED chairman Bernanke gives a speech in London, UK. Best to your week!

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/...

http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com

After about 40 years of investing in the markets one learns that the markets are constantly changing, not only in price, but in what drives the markets. In the 1960s, the Nifty Fifty were the leaders of the stock market. In the 1970s, stock selection using Technical Analysis was important, as the market stayed with a trading range for the entire decade. In the 1980s, the market finally broke out of it doldrums, as the DOW broke through 1100 in 1982, and launched the greatest bull market on record. 

Sharing is an important aspect of a life. Over 100 people have joined our group, from all walks of life, covering twenty three countries across the globe. It's been the most fun I have ever had in the market. Sharing uncommon knowledge, with investors. In hope of aiding them in finding their financial independence.

Copyright © 2013 Tony Caldaro - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Tony Caldaro Archive

© 2005-2014 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Free Report - Financial Markets 2014