Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.The Trump Reset, US Empire's Coming Economic, Cyber and Military War With China (2/2) - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Now Is the Time to Buy Gold - 5th Jan 17 - John Grandits
3.CIA Planning Rogue President Donald Trump Assassination? Elites "Manchurian Candidate" Plan B - Nadeem_Walayat
4.The Trump Reset - Regime Change, Russia the Over Hyped Fake News SuperPower (Part1) - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of 2016 - Stock Market Crash Postponed Again - Nadeem_Walayat
6.No UK House Prices Brexit Crash 2016 Despite London Weakness, Forecast 2017 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.President Trump Understands the NSA, CIA... LIE, America's Intelligence Agencies Crime Syndicate! -Nadeem_Walayat
8.President Donald Trump's 2017 New Year Message, BBC Fake News, Was 2016 a Dream? - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Major Stocks Bear Market Still Looms - Zeal_LLC
10.Biased 2017 Forecasts - Debt, Housing and Stock Market (1/2) - James_Quinn
Last 7 days
The Story of the U.S. Regime Change Plan in the Philippines - 16th Jan 17
Gold Price 2017 Trending Towards $1375 as Forecast - 16th Jan 17
'Deep State' CIA Director States We are Not NAZI's, Warns Trump Does Not Understand Russian Threat - 15th Jan 17
UK House Prices Forecast 2017 - Crash or Bull Market? - Video - 15th Jan 17
SPX Stocks Bull Market Update - 14th Jan 17
President Trump vs the Deep State that Hides in Plain Sight - 14th Jan 17
The Impact of Sir Alex Ferguson's Retirement on Man United's Share Price - 14th Jan 17
What Can Stock Market Tell You About Politics? - 13th Jan 17
Big Gold Buying Coming 2017 - 13th Jan 17
A Bullish Case for Gold 2017 - 13th Jan 17
Will Stocks Bull Market Continue to Charge or is it Time to Sell the News - 13th Jan 17
Gold and Silver Off To Shining Start to 2017 - 13th Jan 17
Gold’s Fundamental Outlook for 2017 - 13th Jan 17
Is trading stocks and shares just as luck-based as roulette? - 13th Jan 17
Trump CIA Like Nazi Germany - Fake MI6 Intelligence leaked to Fake News Mainstream Media - 13th Jan 17
USD in Decline. SPX and TNX May Follow - 12th Jan 17
CIA War On Trump - Leaks Fake MI6 Intelligence to Fake News Broadcast Media - 12th Jan 17
Registered Address.co.uk London Business Registered Office Address Mail Forwarding Review - 11th Jan 17
13 Contrarian Economic Predictions For 2017 - 11th Jan 17
10 Potential Black Swans and Opportunities for the US Economy in 2017 - 11th Jan 17
How to Get a Bird of Paradise Plant to Flower - UK Growing Video - 11th Jan 17
The No.1 Energy Stock To Buy Right Now - 10th Jan 17
Frank Holmes: Gold Rally Extremely Likely in January and February - 9th Jan 17
Test Your Markets Trading Knowledge: Find the Clear Wave Pattern on this Chart - 9th Jan 17
Markets 2016 Past is 2017 Prologue - 9th Jan 17
Stock Market Major Indexes Reached New Record Highs - But Will They Continue Higher? - 9th Jan 17
Agri-Stocks and Agri-Food Prices: Both Strong - 9th Jan 17
The Two Hottest Commodities For Investors In 2017 - 9th Jan 17
Gold Price US$700? OR US$7000? - 9th Jan 17
Stock Market Tad More Distribution Needed - 9th Jan 17

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

What Can Stock Market Tell You About Politics?

SPX to Join GOLD in Market Panic Cycle?

Stock-Markets / Financial Crash May 01, 2013 - 05:34 AM GMT

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Stock-Markets

After much deliberation and calculations I have concluded that the blue Master Cycle (starting June 4, 2012) concluded on February 26.  This is what I call a “sleeper cycle.”  The reason that it passed my attention was that the VIX hit a 7-year low on March 14.  As a result, the volatility/velocity wasn’t enough to punch below the 50-day moving average as we had in November.  The same thing happened in the summer of 2006.  The result was that virtually every cycles analyst missed the 4-year low on June 12, 2006. 


The reason I finally recognized it was due to today being the 63rd day from February 26, which makes a Trading Cycle high.  This is only 12 days after a possible 51-day Trading Cycle low occurred on April 18.  Cycles may do a double pivot, which usually announces a phase-shift in the cycle pattern.

Another reason for this call is because February 26 fell on Master Cycle day 267, just 9 (8.6) days beyond the average Master Cycle duration of 258 days.  You will notice that all the high-to-high (rising market) cycles have been stretched, while the low-to-low cycles have been normal or truncated.  This is a direct result of the Fed pump, IMO. 

All of this is about to change.  Tomorrow is a very important Pivot day.  Whether the SPX makes a new high tomorrow or not, I believe that the Cycles are set up for an extremely left-translated reversal within the cycle starting on April 18.  If my interpretation is correct, SPX will join gold in a Panic Cycle that may last approximately 3 weeks.   

The bottom should occur for both indexes during the week of May 20 if this analysis is correct.  The first low of this decline appears to be due on or around May 7.  At that juncture it appears that SPX may take out the November 16 low.  The real panic may begin after a sharp retracement lasting only 2-3 days.

Gold has already entered its Panic Cycle.  The correction to the Intermediate Wave (1) ended at 1484.80 after retracing a little more than 50%.  The retracement ended on a Primary Cycle high on April 26, which is why so many are attracted to buy gold.   The Cycle Bottom resistance (1479.98) has kept the follow up attempts beneath it and will soon become a repellant as soon as buyers realize that they have gone off the cliff again.

Regards,

Tony

Our Investment Advisor Registration is on the Web

We are in the process of updating our website at www.thepracticalinvestor.com to have more information on our services. Log on and click on Advisor Registration to get more details.

If you are a client or wish to become one, please make an appointment to discuss our investment strategies by calling Connie or Tony at (517) 699-1554, ext 10 or 11. Or e-mail us at tpi@thepracticalinvestor.com .

Anthony M. Cherniawski, President and CIO http://www.thepracticalinvestor.com

As a State Registered Investment Advisor, The Practical Investor (TPI) manages private client investment portfolios using a proprietary investment strategy created by Chief Investment Officer Tony Cherniawski. Throughout 2000-01, when many investors felt the pain of double digit market losses, TPI successfully navigated the choppy investment waters, creating a profit for our private investment clients. With a focus on preserving assets and capitalizing on opportunities, TPI clients benefited greatly from the TPI strategies, allowing them to stay on track with their life goals

Disclaimer: The content in this article is written for educational and informational purposes only.  There is no offer or recommendation to buy or sell any security and no information contained here should be interpreted or construed as investment advice. Do you own due diligence as the information in this article is the opinion of Anthony M. Cherniawski and subject to change without notice.

Anthony M. Cherniawski Archive

© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife