Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.RED ALERT: Paris Terror Attacks - What to Expect Next - STRATFOR
2.Paris Terror Attacks, Death Pangs of a Dying Religion, and Impact on BrExit EU Referendum - Nadeem_Walayat
3.Paris Terror Attacks, Islamic State Attempting to Spark Civil War in France - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Three Shocking Charts That Prove Gold Price Rally Is Coming - Sean Brodrick
5.Stock Market Nifty-Fifty Becomes Fab-Five; Return of the 'Four Horseman' - Mike_Shedlock
6.Africa Population Explosion - Why Europe's Migrant Crisis is Going to Get A Lot Worse - Video - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Gold Mining Stocks May Be The Buy Of The Century - Jeff_Berwick
8.Grandmaster Putin Beats Uncle Sam at His Own Game - Mike_Whitney
9.BRICS? No, CRISIS - Raymond_Matison
10.UK Housing Market Affordability, House Prices Momentum and Trend Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 5 days
Will Turkey Drag NATO into War With Russia in Syria? - 25th Nov 15
George Osborne’s Autumn Statement and Spending Review Full Text - 25th Nov 15
Will Fresh QE From ECB Boost Gold? - 25th Nov 15
Sheffield, Yorkshire and Humberside House Prices Forecast 2016-2018 - 25th Nov 15
Investors Watch Out For The Auto Industry… - 24th Nov 15
BEA Revises 3rd Quarter 2015 US GDP Economic Growth Upward to 2.07% - 24th Nov 15
Stock Market Supports Are Being Broken - 24th Nov 15
Is Gold Price on the Verge of a Breakout? - 24th Nov 15
Fed’s Tarullo: U.S. Interest Rates Liftoff Should Wait for Signs of Inflation - 24th Nov 15
Silver Price, COT, US Dollar Updates and More - 24th Nov 15
UK Regional House Prices Analysis - Video - 23rd Nov 15
Crude Oil Swinging For The Fences - A 20 to 1 Option Play - 23rd Nov 15
US Dollar, CRB, Oil, Gas, Copper and Gold - The Chartology of Deflation - 23rd Nov 15
UK Regional House Prices, Cheapest and Most Expensive Property Markets - 23rd Nov 15
Stock Market Rally Losing Momentum? - 23rd Nov 15
Will Gold Price Drop Below $1000 Soon? - 23rd Nov 15
Gold and Silver Sector Big Green Light and Low Risk Entry Setup... - 23rd Nov 15
Limits to Economic Growth - Challenge and Choices - 22nd Nov 15
Long Dollar Trade and Current Copper Price Below Cost of Production - 22nd Nov 15
UK Housing Market House Prices Affordability Crisis - Video - 21st Nov 15
The Fed Has Set the Stage for a Stock Market Crash - 21st Nov 15
Stock Market Primary V Wave Continues - 21st Nov 15
Gold And Silver - Value Of Knowing The Trend - 21st Nov 15
UK Footsie Bulls Set To Foot The Bill - 21st Nov 15
UK Housing Market Affordability, House Prices Momentum and Trend Forecast - 21st Nov 15
GDX Gold Miners’ Strong Q3 Results - 20th Nov 15
End of Schengen, Stock Market’s Technical Strength Grows - 20th Nov 15
Justice for All and The Curious Case of Zambia - 20th Nov 15
Paris, Sharm el-Sheikh, and the Resurrection of Old Europe - 20th Nov 15
Silver Prices and The Management of Perception - 20th Nov 15
Stock Market Nifty-Fifty Becomes Fab-Five; Return of the 'Four Horseman' - 20th Nov 15
Waiting for Goldot Again - 20th Nov 15
Michael Curran Goes Down-Market Shopping for Gold Stock Winners - 20th Nov 15
Why Isn’t This Incredibly Bearish Bond Market Development Making the News? - 19th Nov 15
SPX Appears to have Stopped its Rally - 19th Nov 15
The Great Fall Of China Started At Least 4 Years Ago - 19th Nov 15
Using Elliott Waves: As Simple As A-B-C - 19th Nov 15
Has Deflation Been Ddefeated? - 19th Nov 15
Dow Jones Stock Market Index is Not Going to Crash - 19th Nov 15

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Reasons to Get Excited About Japanese Stocks

What the Silver to Gold Ratio Tell Us About Silver’s Future Price Moves?

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013 Aug 15, 2013 - 05:23 PM GMT

By: P_Radomski_CFA


In our previous essay we focused on silver’s relationship with the general stock market. Today, we think it would be interesting to revisit the silver-to-gold ratio.  However, before we do that,  let's check the recent price action in silver and gold.

Yesterday, silver posted biggest six-day gains in 2 years. Today, in pre-market trading, the white metal climbed up once again and reached the highest level in a month as holdings in the world's largest silver-backed exchange-traded fund, the iShares Silver Trust (SLV ETF), rose to a four-month high.

According to Reuters, gold extended gains on Thursday to a three-week high on hopes the Federal Reserve may not scale back its commodities-friendly bond buying soon, and as holdings at the world's top gold-backed exchange traded fund (GLD ETF) rose for a second time in a week.

U.S. producer prices were flat in July, which could add to worries at the Federal Reserve that inflation is running too low, indicating the U.S. central bank might not end its stimulus until inflation (taking the official numbers into account) begins to trend higher.

What impact have the above had on the silver-to-gold ratio and, in consequence, on metals themselves? Let's take a closer look at the chart below to see how both precious metals are valued relative to each other. Perhaps this will provide some clues on future moves in them (courtesy

Silver’s outperformance might be something that you are already, correctly, wondering about. On one hand, it seems that silver can lead gold higher. On the other hand, the last few times that silver outperformed gold were right before sizable declines. When in doubt, it’s usually best to get back to the basics, and simply check what usually happened in situations similar to the one that we have right now.

The rally in the silver-to-gold ratio was significant enough to cause the RSI indicator based on it to rally substantially, moving above the 70 level. This meaningful sign could have some implications... but it doesn’t. We checked each case in the past 5 years when the RSI moved close to or above 70, and gold rallied in about half of cases and it declined in the other half. Consequently, there’s not much that we can infer based on silver’s recent outperformance.

We usually don’t bother you with things that are not meaningful, but this time we are making an exception. This is because it seems that there will be a lot of comments on silver’s current outperformance, and we want you to be able to compare them with what we wrote above.

There is one thing about the silver-to-gold chart that is indeed meaningful, and that’s the comparison of the situation that we have now with what we saw in September 2008 right before the final plunge. Back then, the silver-to-gold ratio moved higher during the corrective upswing (before the decline continued) and the size of the rally was quite similar to what we have seen recently. Consequently, the very recent strength in the white metal does not invalidate the similarity between now and 2008, but rather confirms it.

This means that we shouldn’t say that silver’s strength is really a sign of a bottom. In fact, the long-term resistance line hasn’t been broken, and the trend remains down.

Summing up, the recent move in silver looks promising. However, we saw similar action during the only decline that is similar to the current one – and this action was right before the final, huge plunge. Silver is acting particularly strong, but it turns out that its performance relative to gold is also in tune with what happened in September 2008. Consequently, silver’s outperformance does not indicate higher precious metals prices – at least not yet.

To make sure that you are notified once the new features are implemented, and get immediate access to our free thoughts on the market, including information not available publicly, we urge you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Sign up today and you'll also get free, 7-day access to the Premium Sections on our website, including valuable tools and charts dedicated to serious Precious Metals Investors and Traders along with our 14 best gold investment practices. It's free and you may unsubscribe at any time.

Thank you for reading. Have a great and profitable week!

Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA

Founder, Editor-in-chief

Gold & Silver Investment & Trading Website -

* * * * *

About Sunshine Profits

Sunshine Profits enables anyone to forecast market changes with a level of accuracy that was once only available to closed-door institutions. It provides free trial access to its best investment tools (including lists of best gold stocks and best silver stocks), proprietary gold & silver indicators, buy & sell signals, weekly newsletter, and more. Seeing is believing.


All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Przemyslaw Radomski Archive

© 2005-2015 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Biggest Debt Bomb in History