Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Gold Price Target of USD 2,300 - GoldCore
2.Greece Banking System Collapse Monday as ECB Pulls the Plug, Capital Controls Ahead of GrExit - Nadeem_Walayat
3.Why British Muslims Are Leaving Elysium Paradise for Syrian Hell - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Greece BANKRUPT! Financial and Economic Collapse to Follow IMF Debt Default - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Extreme Gold/Silver Shorting - Zeal_LLC
6.European Empire Strikes Back Against Greek Debt Fantasy, Counting Down to GREXIT - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Gold And Silver – Three Choices: Sell, Hold, Hold and Add. A Trading Treatise - Michael_Noonan
8.Gold and Silver Price Headed for Breakdown - Jordan_Roy_Byrne
9.Greece Crisis OXI - Raul_I_Meijer
10.Flatline Investing and Dead End Debt Schemes - Doug_Wakefield
Last 5 days
Financial and Commodity Markets Become Scary: Crash Point Or Turning Point - 5th July 15
A Revolutionary Pope Calls for Rethinking the Outdated Criteria That Rule the World - 5th July 15
Forget 'Haircut', Instead Syriza Plans Beheading of Greek Bank Depositors, Theft of Deposits - 5th July 15
The Pentagon’s 2015 Strategy For Ruling the World Through Endless War - 5th July 15
United States Celebrates the Disastrous Secession From Great Britain - 5th July 15
Greece Referendum Vote Result Forecast Yes Win, But Depression Will Continue - 5th July 15
The Great Greek Economic Depression - 4th July 15
Happy 4th of July Stock Market Analysis - 4th July 15
The Most Pressing Reason Yet You Want to Avoid Investing in Retail Stocks - 4th July 15
Fed’s Full Normalization and the Stock Market - 3rd July 15
The U.S. Dollar's 2014-2015 Rally: Wave 3 in Action - 3rd July 15
Stock Market Where are we? And where are we Going? - 3rd July 15
Xi’s Anti-Corruption Campaign Is Key to China’s Prospects - 3rd July 15
How the New Iranian Nuclear Deal Will Impact Crude Oil - 3rd July 15
China's Stock Market Rollercoaster Ride Continues - 3rd July 15
Gold Stocks Cheap to Buy but Not for Long - 3rd July 15
Capital Controls and a Bank Holiday in Greece… Here’s How You Can Profit - 3rd July 15
Greece's Varoufakis: I will Resign if there's a 'Yes' Vote - 2nd July 15
The Student Loan Bubble: Gambling with America’s Future - 2nd July 15
Inflation Is Lurking, but This Asset Can Protect You - 2nd July 15
Three Total Wealth Stock Investor Tactics You’ll Need Because Greece Isn’t Over - 2nd July 15
Why This $5.6 Trillion Investor Profit Boom Is Set To Take Off - 2nd July 15
Greek Debt Crisis: "Too late to prepare now" - Video - 2nd July 15
Guaranteed US Dollar Death Dynamics - 2nd July 15
The Greek Stress Test & The Reality Of Incremental Changes - 2nd July 15
Forget Drachmas Greece Syriza Government Could Instruct Central Bank to Print Euros! - 2nd July 15
Greece Debt Crisis Trigger for Stock Market Crash or Bull Rally? Video - 1st July 15
Gold Stocks Break Below 2008 Low - 1st July 15
SPX Stock Market Retracement May be Over - 1st July 15
Silver Tunnel Vision 'Experts' - 1st July 15
Gold And Silver - Monthly, Quarterly Ending Analysis - 1st July 15
Europe’s Controlled Demolition - 1st July 15
The End of Dow 18,000; Bailouts No Longer Extended  - 1st July 15
Athens Mayor: Greek Government Should Resign - 1st July 15
China Stocks - This Is What a Bubble Looks Like - 30th June 15
Stocks Plunge on Greece Euro-Zone Financial Armageddon Blackmail - 30th June 15
Greece Crisis Shows Importance of Gold as Europeans Buy Coins and Bars - 30th June 15
Stock Investors Express Route to Profits in the Healthcare Sector - 30th June 15
Beyond the Greek Impasse - 30th June 15
Gold GDXJ : Impulse Move Pending - 30th June 15
Fed Interest Rate Increase Could Be Best Thing to Happen to Gold - 30th June 15
Marc Faber - Greece is Basically Bankrupt - 30th June 15

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

China Stocks - Where are they going?

What the Silver to Gold Ratio Tell Us About Silver’s Future Price Moves?

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013 Aug 15, 2013 - 05:23 PM GMT

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Commodities

In our previous essay we focused on silver’s relationship with the general stock market. Today, we think it would be interesting to revisit the silver-to-gold ratio.  However, before we do that,  let's check the recent price action in silver and gold.

Yesterday, silver posted biggest six-day gains in 2 years. Today, in pre-market trading, the white metal climbed up once again and reached the highest level in a month as holdings in the world's largest silver-backed exchange-traded fund, the iShares Silver Trust (SLV ETF), rose to a four-month high.


According to Reuters, gold extended gains on Thursday to a three-week high on hopes the Federal Reserve may not scale back its commodities-friendly bond buying soon, and as holdings at the world's top gold-backed exchange traded fund (GLD ETF) rose for a second time in a week.

U.S. producer prices were flat in July, which could add to worries at the Federal Reserve that inflation is running too low, indicating the U.S. central bank might not end its stimulus until inflation (taking the official numbers into account) begins to trend higher.

What impact have the above had on the silver-to-gold ratio and, in consequence, on metals themselves? Let's take a closer look at the chart below to see how both precious metals are valued relative to each other. Perhaps this will provide some clues on future moves in them (courtesy http://stockcharts.com).

Silver’s outperformance might be something that you are already, correctly, wondering about. On one hand, it seems that silver can lead gold higher. On the other hand, the last few times that silver outperformed gold were right before sizable declines. When in doubt, it’s usually best to get back to the basics, and simply check what usually happened in situations similar to the one that we have right now.

The rally in the silver-to-gold ratio was significant enough to cause the RSI indicator based on it to rally substantially, moving above the 70 level. This meaningful sign could have some implications... but it doesn’t. We checked each case in the past 5 years when the RSI moved close to or above 70, and gold rallied in about half of cases and it declined in the other half. Consequently, there’s not much that we can infer based on silver’s recent outperformance.

We usually don’t bother you with things that are not meaningful, but this time we are making an exception. This is because it seems that there will be a lot of comments on silver’s current outperformance, and we want you to be able to compare them with what we wrote above.

There is one thing about the silver-to-gold chart that is indeed meaningful, and that’s the comparison of the situation that we have now with what we saw in September 2008 right before the final plunge. Back then, the silver-to-gold ratio moved higher during the corrective upswing (before the decline continued) and the size of the rally was quite similar to what we have seen recently. Consequently, the very recent strength in the white metal does not invalidate the similarity between now and 2008, but rather confirms it.

This means that we shouldn’t say that silver’s strength is really a sign of a bottom. In fact, the long-term resistance line hasn’t been broken, and the trend remains down.

Summing up, the recent move in silver looks promising. However, we saw similar action during the only decline that is similar to the current one – and this action was right before the final, huge plunge. Silver is acting particularly strong, but it turns out that its performance relative to gold is also in tune with what happened in September 2008. Consequently, silver’s outperformance does not indicate higher precious metals prices – at least not yet.

To make sure that you are notified once the new features are implemented, and get immediate access to our free thoughts on the market, including information not available publicly, we urge you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Sign up today and you'll also get free, 7-day access to the Premium Sections on our website, including valuable tools and charts dedicated to serious Precious Metals Investors and Traders along with our 14 best gold investment practices. It's free and you may unsubscribe at any time.

Thank you for reading. Have a great and profitable week!

Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA

Founder, Editor-in-chief

Gold & Silver Investment & Trading Website - SunshineProfits.com

* * * * *

About Sunshine Profits

Sunshine Profits enables anyone to forecast market changes with a level of accuracy that was once only available to closed-door institutions. It provides free trial access to its best investment tools (including lists of best gold stocks and best silver stocks), proprietary gold & silver indicators, buy & sell signals, weekly newsletter, and more. Seeing is believing.

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Przemyslaw Radomski Archive

© 2005-2015 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Biggest Debt Bomb in History