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Forecast Psychology, Us Treasury Bond Bubble, Extreme Gold Price Rise

Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis Oct 07, 2013 - 06:18 PM GMT

By: Jim_Willie_CB


The analytic discussion and defense of viewpoints concerning the grandest asset bubble in history is covered, as well as exposure of corrupted markets. In addition, take the opportunity to discuss intriguing human psychology regarding forecasts. It might be enlightening to many folks. It might be entertaining to some. It is not complimentary of the human species actually. One is reminded of Cassandra in Greek Mythology. The USTreasury Bond market has been a frequent topic of analysis. This perspective is on the bubble dynamics mixed with forecast psychology. The recent essay featuring the Flash Trading and other USTreasury Bond factors deserves further discussion, since so important. To be sure, High Frequency Trading, also known as Flash Trading, is not skin in the game, and not typical capital at risk. It is a blatant price control practice that produces false levitation in asset prices and distorted volume reported. A good deal more light on the phony USTreasury Bond market is shed, which is not well understood for its status as being the greatest asset bubble in human history, not just modern history. It exceeds the housing & mortgage bubble that formed a decade ago, if not from volume, then from scope, since it is laced throughout the entire global banking system.


The dependence upon asset bubbles within the US financial and economic arenas is not new. That dependence became a new fixture with the outsourcing movement in the 1980 decade. The USEconomy was forced to replace its legitimate income. Enter the stock market, the 401k & IRA accounts, the mutual fund fascination, and more. The climax to general asset dependence became a national entrenched phenomenon of deadly consequence following the Most Favored Nation status granted to China in 1999. The deal was seamy, scummy, dastardly. The US forfeited much of its industrial core to China. In return the USEconomy would receive a temporary low cost benefit, a fleeting benefit to be sure. Hidden was the deal cut by Wall Street to lease Mao Tse Tung era gold, in order to continue the great game suppression game and to extend the life of the USDollar by another decade. The Rubin Doctrine was employed once more, to extend by 10 years the US system, but with assured destruction from broken internal structures. The USEconomy was encouraged by Sir Alan Greenspan to develop a dependence upon home equity extractions as the last US Housing Bubble was puffed on his order. This dependence was a great motive to begin and launch the Hat Trick Letter, since the Jackass foresaw a systemic ruin in the making. In past cycles, the USEconomy rebounded with lowered interest rates. But this time, this cycle, the Chinese presence as emerging industrial powerhouse would prevent the US from kick-starting its economy. The ultra-low interest rate would not benefit the USEconomy, but smother it instead as it became a permanent fixture. The United States would follow the Japanese dead end pathway with enthusiasm and glee. In doing so, the United States would experience a systemic failure with broken internal financial structures. The extent and detail of the destroyed capital phenomenon was not all clear back in 2004. It is more clear now.

The Jackass made his position very clear in 1999 about a melt-up in the 2000 transition for the basic reasons that over $600 billion was spent on the software changeover, and then USFed Chairman Greenspan had opened the gates on money supply in anticipation of something that the Jackass found extremely unlikely to the extraordinarily high degree. My background in computer programming, dating to Fortran and COBOL, along with direct consultation with Staples IT co-workers, enabled me to conclude the problem would be a total non-event. As it turned out, the only snafu of note (surely others) was the Paris Airport recording the new year 19900 on its displays. The melt-up was an easy call, as the US stock market rose to untenable silly high levels, and Cisco Systems market cap threatened the $1 trillion mark. The easy call was due to absurd levels of money creation by the Greenspan Fed, little justification for it, and a bubble formed. The Jackass later concluded that Greenspan wished to create a big ugly asset bubble, but for more sinister reasons. Greenspan was the fool we respected. The Von Mises Institute and the Austrian School of Economics was a great formative year teacher to the Jackass. The massive housing & mortgage bust set up the present day USTreasury Bond bubble, the greatest asset bubble, the last asset bubble. The US has no more asset bubbles to puff up. Perversely, the final bubble is the toxic balance sheet at the USFed, a festering boil filled with pus. Thus the USDollar global rejection. Time has run out.


Let the Jackass take the opportunity to discuss forecasts and track records. The financial and economic landscape has been loaded with challenging obstacles and endless interference. If one assumes the pathogenesis of systemic failure, laced with bank syndicate corruption, and constant war cost drain, then the forecasting environment becomes easier to the analyst. Most other economists and analysts who draw a paycheck from within the system cannot rely on such premises like the Jackass. The record is very clear on Jackass forecast history. The public domain articles serve as adequate ground for their demonstrated accuracy. In fact, they are not small forecasts. Most were what are called mega-forecasts, the kind that call for systemic change and altered landscape, earning extra credit since bolder in nature. Paradigm Shift was at the heart of the forecasts. Take for instance the Insolvency forecasts and the Monetary Policy forecasts made from 2006 through 2012 by the Jackass, all correct. The insolvency of the housing market, the households, the business sector, the banking sector, and the USGovt itself all fell into line following the US Housing Market and US Mortgage Finance Sector collapse from the bust of the twin bubbles. The forecasts came true. The monetary policy deep aberrations became necessary, out of desperation. The USFed was forced into the corner of offering zero percent rates indefinitely, and to monetize bond purchases for both mortgages and eventually the USGovt debt. Zero Interest Rate Policy Forever and Quantitative Easing to Infinity were easier forecasts to make than any other, although very important. They are critical to the systemic failure in progress, founded and extended from the 2008 Jackass for eventual USGovt debt default. The road is much more clear today, compared to five years ago. In fact, the USGovt has many offices shut down during the budget impasse. Par for the course on breakdown.

With several new forecasts pending, and a solid track record, the readers would do well to pay heed to new forecasts about the reintroduction of the Gold Trade Standard. It will emerge from trade settlement and peer-to-peer payment within distributed systems. It will not emerge as extensions to the banking and currency systems. The past Jackass correct forecasts formed a long string. One or two errors did occur, but perhaps one supposed error is just a slowly developing correct forecast. Check the Jackass archive of public articles kept on (CLICK HERE), which contains articles dating back to 2004 and 2005. The G-E website managed by I.M.Vronsky is a superb online journal focusing on the gold world, the bond arena, the currency pits, and the economies. The Jackass has made a nice friendship over the last ten years, a fellow comrade in arms, with occasional practice of our Spanish skills. The forecast record should be seen, since a valid record of the past. See the Golden Jackass website forecast webpage (CLICK HERE). It was assembled at the urging of my inner circle colleague from Northern California area, who actually reminded me of a couple forgotten correct forecasts. Some forecasts are actually the result of team discussions and what emerges. They cover the full spectrum, beyond insolvency and monetary policy. Some include the sovereign debt crisis, individual currencies, the USTreasury Bond market movements, and even the split between the paper Gold price versus the actual metal Gold price.


The themes of insolvency permeate the forecast skein. The most harsh criticism that came to the Jackass desk from other analysts was related to the forecasts that the US Housing market would not recover at all, and the US Banking system would feel a ruinous impact with grotesque insolvency. Since much of the USEconomy had been made dependent upon the home equity extractions and the mortgage bond trading flows, my forecast was for a systemic failure due to inadequate income production capacity for any recovery. If the economy was to lose its critical (but perverse) dependence on the housing market, and the mortgage bond market was to be exposed for its faulty structures, then the entire US financial and economic system would suffer a calamity of sorts. The catastrophe has hit with a Global Financial Crisis, enduring without solution, marred by Weimar-like hyper monetary inflation patches and constant toxic bond redemptions. The Jackass mega-forecasts came true, and pervasive insolvency hit the entire US system, from households to companies to banks to government finance. All the while, China morphed from a trade partner to a trade war adversary, another important forecast that changed the geopolitical picture.

In response to the grotesque insolvency, the expectation seemed very simple that the USFed would take the interest rate down far below the previous cycle low of 3% or so, down to the Japanese norm of 0%. Also it seems very simple to expect the USFed to cover the USGovt deficits, when securitized. The US inherent system would not have sufficient savings to cover the debt. Besides, the unilateral arrogant destructive ZIRP & QE would succeed in alienating the entire planet, which would come to despise the United States and regard the nation as the new pariah. It is all coming to be. The US isolation has followed. So naturally, the next chapter is the global rejection of the USDollar and its financial weapon of mass economic destruction, delivered in the USTreasury Bond. Its asset bubble will burst, or else vanish while fully inflated.


Several forecasts are in progress, pending. A few seem to be happening, but in this complex world, to be verified definitively is difficult and takes time. Time will tell, as always a fair arbiter over forecasts made. The reversal of the Taper Talk was forecasted back in July. The eventual higher QE volume is a straightforward forecast. New forecasts are pending, still in progress. They lay out a pathogenesis of extreme duress. The road to a Returned Gold Standard will be rocky, disruptive, and even violent, with horrendous loss of wealth, and a great transfer of wealth. The Golden Jackass Forecast webpage cited above contains the current pending forecasts, some of which have begun to occur in confirmation.

The great global Paradigm Shift involves far more than wealth migrating from West to East in the form of Gold bullion. The corruption among the Wall Street bankers, the Chicago pit commodity traders, and the London bankers is all playing out in the COMEX & LBMA fall from grace. Along the evolution of corrupt financial systems, the SPDR Gold Trust (aka GLD Exchange Traded Fund) is being treated like a dedicated loading ramp in service to the Wall Street bankers, the modern day Knights in Satan's service. The Jackass has his own past upbringing and background. It provided an excellent exposure to the seamy side of the society. Therefore, corruption is assumed and upon it are built the Jackass forecasts. The competitor analysts seem stuck in hoping the corruption is pushed aside. They tend to make assumptions about self-correcting healthy systems that seek equilibrium. Worse, they tend to integrate forecasts around assumptions of the world righting itself. None of such nice factors are at work unfortunately. Instead, the Jackass expects with the Fascist Business Model in place and entrenched, those firmly in power will prevail until the systemic failure is much farther along. So the system will be abused like a parasite host, and taken to ruin. The USGovt shutdown is blatant evidence of the march to the cliff. The unending big bank welfare is more evidence. The refusal to prosecute or liquidate the big banks is more evidence still. The Jackass advantage has also been of no loyalty to Wall Street, nor to any banking tower.


The USTreasury Bond market is suffering a gradual degradation, as it has developed a reliance upon monetary crutches for nearly total support. Eastern central banks and large financial entities have vast USTBonds held in reserves and portfolios. The Western big banks and large financial firms have for three years put in place a vast carry trade. The Carry Trade features big US Banks borrowing at miniscule rates and investing in long-term USTreasurys. The practice began when the 10-year bond yield was south of 2.5% and even at times briefly above the 3.0% level. The evidence of the carry trade was the regular and frequent comments made by USFed Chairman Bernanke, as well as leading Wall Street bank executives. They boasted in 2010 and 2011 about replenishing their balance sheets by means of investing in USTreasurys. Wall Street banks never miss an opportunity to apply leverage to any successful trading scheme. With the rise in bond yields from 1.6% to 2.9% (almost 3.0%), my conclusion is that the carry trade is unwinding. This is Financial Engineering 201, not exactly the basics but still not very advanced. To be sure, the Big US Banks are losing huge amounts of money in their leveraged bond positions. They prefer bond futures, just like they prefer the S&P futures contract, and just like they used to prefer their mortgage bond REMIC invention. Their past track record and preferences are well known to the financial engineering industry. The concept of unwinding leverage with bond introduced the Convexity term. The bond market will tend to overshoot as it unwinds. Going further, Wall Street saw fit to expand into the leveraged Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDO), which imposed leverage upon the leverage. These corrupt pillars even called it squared leverage.

Some naive investors believe the USTBonds being sold will release new funds directly into the US Stock market, even help to revive the USEconomy. As the leveraged USTBond positions are unwound, they will not release vast funds into the financial markets or the economy. The reason why is simple. They are spread trades. As the wrecked spread trades (short the USTBill and long the USTBond) are unwound, they are big BIG money losers. So to close them out, they must bring money to the table. In futures trading, they are marked to market. They are not carried on the books at book value, as some errantly suggest. Not the futures contracts that Wall Street banks are so fond of, with a 30 to 40 year history. The big banks can conceal their losses only for the USTBonds held without leverage. The ten year maturities are almost never held to maturity, an absurd notion on its face. Thus the motive to conduct Operation Twist by the USFed in 2011 and 2012. The foreign holders of long-term USTreasurys shifted to shorter maturities, so they could wait out the destructive USFed monetary policy, and be paid off at maturity of the bonds, not a difficult sale.

Sale by big banks of USTreasury Bonds is an action that generally reduces liquidity. The banks each have internal liquidity requirements. They are (by the Dallas Fed insider's account) being forced to sell their bonds at losses in order to produce internal liquidity, not systemic liquidity. The same insider quote addressed the need to meet capital requirements, the hint of internal individual bank dynamics, not macro system dynamics. That was the important hint. Recall that these big US banks are all insolvent. The old adage is Insolvency + Illiquidity = Bankruptcy. The insolvent structures lack liquidity suddenly. Perhaps the Big US Banks are suffering from USTBond carry trade losses in addition to interest rate derivative losses, together which have rendered deep damage to their capital structure and liquidity. They are being forced to sell in order to raise internal liquidity, to defend not only their own financial integrity but the USDollar. Many observers errantly think macro but the force at work is micro. The big banks within the Federal Reserve system are each struggling within their own broken structures and caved in walls. The entire point about the round robin being played by the USFed and its member Big Banks indicates a dangerous early maneuver toward Flash Trading to steer price. So far it has worked.

Free Market advocates are on the defensive for shallow constructs. The free market is surely not seen in the USTreasurys, surely not the FOREX currency market, surely not the US Stock market, and surely not the Gold market. Lest one forget, surely not Fannie Mae or AIG or General Motors with all their props. Free market is not at work, surely not with Big US Banks, which a free market would have liquidated years ago for insolvency, if not fraud. They enjoy phony accounting practices, made legal by the USCongress in April 2009. Obviously Algorithm Trading is legal, but it is not from entrepreneurs. Wall Street bankers are hardly entrepreneurs, but rather the vampire squid types. Al Capone and Bugsy Moran and Michael Corleone were entrepreneurs also. Algorithm Trading does not undermine price rigging, but rather it is actually a key device used precisely to rig prices, to elevate them. The High Frequency Trading, otherwise called Flash Trading or Algorithm Trading, is not a healthy form of arbitrage. The Wall Street schemers using Algo Trading do not seek out price disparities so much as they stack on phony volume and lift price in a highly disruptive manner than requires the participation of dumb money. The high speed trading, which introduces millions are traded shares in seconds, is not price discovery. It is market interference. Flash Trading caused a few market seizures in recent years. The flash trades depend upon of dumb money to exploit for regular supply, like lubrication in the distorted market (not free market). More light has been shed on flash trading in the last two years, a very devious deviant practice. Another wind change has come. The USGovt officials more openly discuss their market interventions as preserving the financial market integrity, while the same integrity is destroyed.


The QE to Infinity is becoming quite clear, even celebrated. The Jackass forecast presents a new forecast: a ramped up QE with greater bond purchase volume (like double) in the next 12 months. The need to contend with growing USTBond global volume sales must be addressed. Note the selloff in USTBonds by foreign entities (seen in TIC Report), sure to add to sales volume. Note the Indirect Exchange in foreign asset acquisitions (seen in Russian Rosneft deal), sure to add to sales volume. Note the growing animosity and resentment by the global community for the unilateral monetary policy administered by the USFed for Wall Street and London banker benefit. The global players are diversifying out of USTBonds. Note the gathering momentum by the G-20 nations, the BRICS nations, the SCO nations, in developing a non-USDollar alternative. Theirs is a gathering campaign toward survival in the next chapter. Note the mature global alternative (a growing consensus device) being embraced with the Yuan Swap Facility, useful in weaning off the USDollar in trade settlement. In today's world, with the ongoing global financial crisis, with the ongoing Weimar monetary policy, with the global rejection of the USDollar, with the great Paradigm Shift, with the extraordinary wealth transfer, with the controversial re-hypothecation of Allocated Gold Accounts, a new bizarre era has emerged which is better characterized as a systemic breakdown and failure in progress. This is not breakaway economy, but rather systemic breakdown. The endless Global Financial Crisis has no solution, something that adept analysts have begun to acknowledge. The USTreasury Bond bubble is fracturing, breaking, sure to collapse in a very strange manner. It might fail from falling bond yields. It might fail from rising bond yields. It might fail from rejected USDollar gradually. It might fail from sudden USDollar rejection.


The USTreasury Bond market is not a free market. To claim or assume or even to imply the USTBond market is a free market, or a fair market, or a market that seeks equilibrium is incredibly naive, and basically ignorant. The evidence amasses like a mountain. After the Big US Banks were permitted to place any value they wished on assets, the USTBond market soon went into the Grand Toilet of Integrity. About the same time as the FASB accounting rules were suspended, the Flash Trading in the New York Stock Market was exposed. It does not represent entrepreneurs placing money at risk with investments. Given how the practice made up 80% of the NYSE volume, it was clearly designed to maintain high phony share prices. Notice the common 80% again with USTreasurys. The USFed has been buying at least 80% of USTBond issuance for two years running. In some months, the USFed bond purchase exceeds the actual USGovt debt issuance, a point made by competent bond analysts. So a nice easy leap to believe the Flash Trading has jumped from stocks to bonds.

The next big event to influence the USTBond market was the abuse of Interest Rate Swap contracts. In the second half of 2010, the Morgan Stanley offices added a ripe $8.5 trillion in interest rate derivatives. The data is according to the Office of the Comptroller to the Currency. The practice was given attention by friend and colleague Rob Kirby, intrepid to the end. Thus the flight to USTreasurys was phony, fabricated, and false in late 2010 and 2011. No free market here. The beached London Whale in June 2012 was about Interest Rate Swaps gone bad, something still missed by many analysts. The Jackass (with Kirby) was all over the story, even to dismiss and disprove the JPMorguen claim that the London Whale losses were over the Southern European sovereign bonds. That lie was unmasked easily, since over the quarter in question, all such PIGS bonds rose in value, improved in position with falling bond yields, calm somewhat restored. So no fair market in USTBonds as the derivative machinery was exposed, except to those with poor mental aptitude or deep devotion to Wall Street.

Then comes the Quantitative Easing, which is an aberration clearly not inherent to a free market. The USFed has been busy purchasing $80 billion worth of these toxic bonds, along with mortgage bonds, each month. Greater volumes were purchased behind curtains with the Operation Twist, yet another deceptive program to undermine the free market. The theory brought to the table by Catherine Austin Fitts was that the USFed, with their QE3 plan, was trying vigorously to bury and put away the most corrupted and toxic mortgage bonds. The motive was to free the logjam of toxic and fraud-related mortgage bonds, in order to permit the long awaited housing market recovery. The USFed wanted to attract foreign investors to US housing. All they succeeded in doing was to attract the Wall Street sponsored private equity funds. The entire USFed QE programs are horribly undermining the free market characteristics of the USTreasury Bond market. No bond market with the central bank purchasing between 80% and 90% of the USGovt debt issuance is a fair market, not by any definition. It is being supported by rabid applications of interest rate swaps. See the OCC data, there for public viewing, but almost never viewed. The Jackass logic uses extensions from the recent June TIC Report on USTreasury Bond and other US$-based bond sales. The flow is always dominated by USTBonds. A record month of net dumping by foreign institutions took place in June.

The Jackass has been very vocal about the QE effect of rising cost structures, falling profit margins, and businesses shut down, jobs cut. The QE initiatives as sold as providing stimulus, but the reality is the capital destruction effect. This capital kill is key to the systemic failure.

The volume of USFed monetization is going to rise from all these negative factors at work. In 12 months, it will be clear. In fact, within 4 to 6 months it will be more clear the QE volume ramp up, not taper down. The global USTBond dumping, combined with some diversification from sovereign bonds to gold bullion, aggravated by Indirect Exchange, will continue to put great pressure on the USFed to maintain the bond equilibrium charade. The Indirect Exchange occurs when third parties are given USTBonds in asset deals or certain commodity ongoing purchases. The third parties take the bonds and sell them immediately, requiring the cash.


For several years, the Jackass has given significant study to the psychology of forecasts. Refer not to the actual content and analysis beyond lodged forecasts, but rather to the mindset of people who react to them before, during, and after the forecast outcomes. It is a truly mindboggling study into the recesses of strange human mental processes. It is full of denigration, denial, and dispute, with refusal to do self-evaluation. Most people regard a correct forecast to be stupid beforehand, then ignored while coming to pass, but obvious afterwards. They do not give credit for the last correct forecast, nor review its past merits, but move quickly to denigrate the next probably correct forecast. They do not wish to consider the logic and justification for the past correct forecast or the next new forecast, which is based on the same correct line of thinking. Many detractors do not notice the string of correct forecasts. Instead, they attack the next forecasts. Ridicule is a regularly anticipated feature of forecast reactions.

People typically do not acknowledge correct forecasts. They might not comprehend them. They might be angry over not foreseeing them on their own, or the dynamics at work. They might wish to ignore them, since personal loss was suffered. Many emails have been received by the Jackass, highly critical and insulting, calling me stupid, on forecasts which eventually came true. Only about three or four emails have ever come from the same insulting people, a sign of integrity. People tend to live within assumptions from which to derive happiness and security. They tend to believe the USGovt and USMilitary and the police forces and the FBI protect us. They tend to believe the CIA seeks out intelligence for national protection. The tend to believe the big banks are deeply committed to capital formation, healthy lending practices, which help to fortify the USEconomy and to create jobs, even good jobs. They tend to believe the financial markets are fair, seek equilibrium, and are self-correcting. They tend to believe the regulatory bodies do their jobs and enforce the rules of fair play. They tend to regard their pensions are safe and secure. Most of these assumptions and beliefs are not correct. A predatory element has been fostered among the leadership classes, evident in the financial markets, in recent years. A crime syndicate has taken control and taken root, the legal consequences converted to mere business costs.

Most people do not respect correct forecasts. They resent them and the person who posts those forecasts. They resent past losses from not seeing the same phenomena, from not avoiding the pitfalls that seem so clear in hindsight. Competent and correct forecasts are the opposite of unseen pitfalls. People resent others who implicitly point out their failings and losses associated with the wrecked investments. Curiously, many people will continue on the same path, out of inertia and dedication to an assumption pathway. Many subscribers told me that the housing market had been solid for generations and would never collapse, the ultimate inflation hedge. They did not comprehend the mortgage bond corruption, the MERS title database corruption, the duplicate income flow on bonds. They lost their equity and hate the forecaster, who himself avoided the pitfall, sold his house long ago, and bought Gold & Silver (generally speaking).

Most people resent the correct forecasts, since they are committed to their communities, to their businesses, to their pension plans. They are more hostages than participants. They resent the correct forecasts, and the new forecasts, because it places a billboard in front of them which highlights their poorly planned lives, deeply entrenched in a failed system, perhaps even a captive or worse, a disenfranchised person without employment any longer. They do appreciate exposure of their shortcomings and faulty thought process, if not even somewhat beneficiaries of a worthless education. Several times, the Jackass has heard that such a position behind a forecast could not be true, or else all they learned in college would be false. My response has been that no Economics or Finance courses are offered on corruption. Even my favorite graduate school professor who teaches about bank derivative mathematics refused to offer an additional perspective in his advanced class on the effect of derivative valuation with introduced corruption. He is a great teacher and fine man, a tremendous professional influence on my education and career, but one must wonder what he thought of the London Whale story, and if reminded of the Jackass conversation.

The Jackass belief is that the engrained corrupt element and the distorted markets are the bitter fruit of the Fascist Business Model which flourished in the Clinton-Rubin Admin, and reached climax after 911. Most people do not respect correct forecasts. They resent them, since their coming to pass calls into question the surfeit of baseless assumptions for deriving happiness and security. They resent them, since they find themselves stuck in a world that resembles 1984 and the Brave New World far more than a wondrous New Age and Goldilocks. The Jackass is Henry David Thoreau writing for the Hat Trick Letter in a log cabin at Walden Pond. The site was visited countless times after a bike ride and hike around the pond, sometimes a swim in the deep cold spring-fed waters. Despite losing home equity, despite losing pension funds, despite losing jobs, most people refuse to believe the entire system is corrupted by the leadership classes. But the population is awakening, at a very late stage. As a result, the dire forecasts of systemic failure and the grind toward insolvency and collapsing platforms are seen as very unsavory, all too often an unwelcome insertion into the conversation.

The Jackass forecasts are not designed to make people feel good. They are designed to help people correctly see what is coming in the next few months, so that they can plan accordingly. Most of the forecasts are for extreme disruption and broken structures, part of what can be called mega-forecasts. Most people do not perceive the Paradigm Shift underway. Only the great minority living inside the US Dome of Perception see much of anything outside the dome, complete with public address systems (propaganda). If they did, they were be more scared. They would fear poverty and the Third World as much a lost freedoms and the emerging totalitarian state. There are only so many Gold & Silver lifeboats, and most are taken (a constant wise refrain from The Voice). The Jackass forecasts will continue to be delivered, tested, and confirmed. When the forced USGovt debt default and restructure comes, and when the Gold Trade Standard is put in place, a countdown will be watched for the end of the Hat Trick Letter. It might be a long countdown, but honestly, there could never be a follow-up act on either forecast call when they come to pass.


Permit the Jackass to repeat the conclusion from the same Flash Trading article on the USTreasury Bonds. The major currencies will be forced to scurry like cockroaches in the dark to find and source gold bars for renovation of the currencies themselves. The crumbling sovereign debt serves as flawed foundation for the major currencies. The climax blow will be the conversion of USTBonds and EuroBonds and UKGilts and JapGovtBonds into Gold bullion that kills the current system and opens the door to the new system. With great disruption, the new Paradigm Shift is in progress, unstoppable, but offering hope for a better day, a better system, a more fair system, with participants and savers given a just system. For three decades, Gold has had a nemesis in the USTreasury Bond. The USTBond is dying, a wreck in progress. As the old pillars fall and the new pillars rise, The Price of Gold will be set free. It will reach $3000/oz when the COMEX defaults from empty inventory and Shanghai arbitrage, then reach $5000/oz when the great conversion begins in earnest from USTBonds to Gold bullion, then reach $7000/oz when the Gold Trade Settlement is installed in its full glory. It is written. It shall be done.


From subscribers and readers:

At least 30 recently on correct forecasts regarding the bailout parade, numerous nationalization deals such as for Fannie Mae and the grand Mortgage Rescue.

"I commend the Jackass for being the most accurate of all newsletter writers. Others called for the big move in Gold right away, but you understand that the enormous fraud in the system needs to play out before free market forces can begin to assert themselves. You seem to have the best sources and insights into the soap opera that is our global financial system. Most importantly, you have advised readers to be patient, stay safe, and avoid mining shares like the plague. Calling the top in the USTreasury Bond (10-yr yield at 1.4% yield) stands out as a recent fine accomplishment. The Jackass understands the markets, understands the fraud, and also has the sources to keep him the most up-to-date on the big geopolitical and financial events and scandals. Few or no other writers have all three of these resources."

   (Austin in California)

"After first reading the Hat Trick letter a few years ago, I was amazed at Jim Willie's prophetic calls concerning the economic forgery and corruption worldwide. His knowledge, coupled with his worldwide contacts and gutsy fortitude to call out and expose the evil criminal bankers, and to expose the lying US government, forced me to become a subscriber. I have no plans to cancel. Willie's work creates an anticipated excitement for new reports issued in the middle of the month."

   (JeffH in Virginia)

"A Paradigm change is occurring for sure. Your reports and analysis are historic documents, allowing future generations to have an accurate account of what and why things went wrong so badly. There is no other written account that strings things along on the timeline, as your writings do. I share them with a handful of incredibly influential people whose decisions are greatly impacted by having the information in the Jackass format. The system is coming apart on such a mega scale that it is difficult to wrap one's head around where all this will end. But then, the universe strives for equilibrium and all will eventually balance out."

   (The Voice, a European gold trader source)

by Jim Willie CB
Editor of the “HAT TRICK LETTER”
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Use the above link to subscribe to the paid research reports, which include coverage of several smallcap companies positioned to rise during the ongoing panicky attempt to sustain an unsustainable system burdened by numerous imbalances aggravated by global village forces. An historically unprecedented mess has been created by compromised central bankers and inept economic advisors, whose interference has irreversibly altered and damaged the world financial system, urgently pushed after the removed anchor of money to gold. Analysis features Gold, Crude Oil, USDollar, Treasury bonds, and inter-market dynamics with the US Economy and US Federal Reserve monetary policy.

Jim Willie CB is a statistical analyst in marketing research and retail forecasting. He holds a PhD in Statistics. His career has stretched over 25 years. He aspires to thrive in the financial editor world, unencumbered by the limitations of economic credentials. Visit his free website to find articles from topflight authors at . For personal questions about subscriptions, contact him at

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