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FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Stock Market Short Term pull-back Developing

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013 Dec 06, 2013 - 02:58 PM GMT

By: Christopher_Quigley

Stock-Markets

It is highly probable that a short-term correction is developing in the markets.

The price point to watch on the Dow Industrials is 15750 and on the Transports it is 7100. If these levels hold solidly over the next few days then we will more than likely have a year-end rally. However, if they break over the next week or so the Industrials could quickly fall by 1000 points to the October lows.


I believe that a solid correction is badly needed to set the markets up for 2014. I think a little pain now would be better than a later market rout that would do so much technical damage that a true bear market would ensue. Such a development would be a disaster for the world economy.

At the moment the FED is walking on a tight-rope. Quantitative Easing has to cease. It is utterly unsustainable. The FED chairwoman knows this but the issue is timing. The next American presidential election campaign will kick in earnestly in 2015. The departure of the Obama administration is going to bring in its own inevitable instability. Therefore, I reckon, Janet Louise Yellen will act on tapering QE early in 2014.

I believe the market is beginning to sense this. Let’s hope she can pull it off without starting a full blown recession generated by a collapsing stock market, imploding real estate markets and a new sovereign debt crisis caused by exploding interest rates.

Dow Industrials: Daily

Dow Transports: Daily

The Cypriot “bail-in” policy nightmare continues to stalk Europe.
As reported by Goldcore 4th. December 2013:

 “Bail-Ins And Deposit Confiscation Coming, Irish Finance Minister Michael Noonan Confirms At ‘Future of Banking in Europe’ Conference.

A major conference on the future of banking yesterday heard contributions on a European banking union which is being negotiated by Eurozone finance ministers. One of the aspects of that union will be a 'bail-in' of deposits when banks fail in the future. Michael Noonan, Ireland’s Minister for Finance confirmed yesterday that bail-ins or deposit confiscation will be used.

The toolkit underpinning the Single Resolution Mechanism is provided for in the bank recovery and resolution proposal (BRR) which was agreed last June in Council under the Irish Presidency. The proposal provides a common framework of rules and powers to help EU countries manage arrangements to deal with failing banks at national level as well as cross-border banks, whilst preserving essential bank operations and minimising taxpayers' exposure to losses.
 

One of the main pillars to the BRR framework to facilitate a range of actions by authorities are “resolution tools”. Noonan confirmed yesterday that resolution tools include the sale of business, bridge bank and asset separation tools and also the use of bail-ins.

The era of bondholder bailouts is ending and that of depositor bail-ins is coming.

Preparations have been or are being put in place by the international monetary and financial authorities for bail-ins.  The majority of the public are unaware of these developments, the risks and the ramifications.

It is now the case that in the event of bank failure, your deposits could be confiscated.

Let's be crystal clear: The EU, UK, the U.S., Canada, Australia and New Zealand all have plans for bail-ins in the event of banks and other large financial institutions getting into difficulty.”

The Fed owns one third of the US bond market.

This is the scariest report I have read in years, issued by Stone McCarthy on the December 6th.

It emphasizes the enormity of the task Bernanke has left Janet Yellen:

“The most important chart that nobody at the Fed seems to pay any attention to, and certainly none of the economists who urge the Fed to accelerate its monetization of Treasury paper, is shown below. It shows the Fed's total holdings of the entire bond market expressed in 10 Year equivalents (because as a reminder to the Krugmans and Bullards of the world, a 3 Year is not the same as a 30 Year). As we have been pounding the table over the past year, the amount of securities that the Fed can absorb without crushing the liquidity in the "deepest" bond market in the world is rapidly declining, and specifically now that the Fed has refused to taper, it is absorbing over 0.3% of all Ten Year Equivalents, also known as "High Quality Collateral", from the private sector every week. The total number as per the most recent weekly update is now a whopping 33.18%, up from 32.85% the week before. Or, said otherwise, the Fed now owns a third of the entire US bond market.



At this pace, assuming Janet Yellen keeps delaying the taper again and again over fears of how "tighter" financial conditions would get, even as gross US bond issuance declines in line with the decline in deficit funding needs, the Fed will own just shy of half the entire bond market on December 31, 2014... and all of it sometime in 2018.”

Charts Courtesy of StockCharts.Com

By Christopher M. Quigley

B.Sc., M.M.I.I. Grad., M.A.

http://www.wealthbuilder.ie

Mr. Quigley was born in 1958 in Dublin, Ireland. He holds a Bachelor Degree in Accounting and Management from Trinity College Dublin and is a graduate of the Marketing Institute of Ireland. He commenced investing in the stock market in 1989 in Belmont, California where he lived for 6 years. He has developed the Wealthbuilder investment and trading course over the last two decades as a result of research, study and experience. This system marries fundamental analysis with technical analysis and focuses on momentum, value and pension strategies.

Since 2007 Mr. Quigley has written over 80 articles which have been published on popular web   sites based in California, New York, London and Dublin.

Mr. Quigley is now lives in Dublin, Ireland and Tampa Bay, Florida.

© 2013 Copyright Christopher M. Quigley - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Christopher M. Quigley Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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