Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Market Decline Will Lead To Pension Collapse, USD Devaluation, And NWO - Raymond_Matison
2.Uber’s Nightmare Has Just Started - Stephen_McBride
3.Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - Brad_Gudgeon
4.GDow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold Significant Correction Has Started - Clive_Maund
6.British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - Richard_Mills
8.Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - Dan_Amerman
9.Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - Michael Ballanger
10.UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Venezuela’s Hyperinflation Drags On For A Near Record—36 Months - 18th Nov 19
Intellectual Property as the New Guild System - 18th Nov 19
Gold Mining Stocks Q3’ 2019 Fundamentals - 18th Nov 19
The Best Way To Play The Coming Gold Boom - 18th Nov 19
What ECB’s Tiering Means for Gold - 17th Nov 19
DOJ Asked to Examine New Systemic Risk in Gold & Silver Markets - 17th Nov 19
Dow Jones Stock Market Cycle Update and are we there yet? - 17th Nov 19
When the Crude Oil Price Collapses Below $40 What Happens? PART III - 17th Nov 19
If History Repeats, Gold is Headed to $8,000 - 17th Nov 19
All You Need To Know About Cryptocurrency - 17th Nov 19
What happens To The Global Economy If Oil Collapses Below $40 – Part II - 15th Nov 19
America’s Exceptionalism’s Non-intervention Slide to Conquest, Empire - and Socialism - 15th Nov 19
Five Gold Charts to Contemplate as We Prepare for the New Year - 15th Nov 19
Best Gaming CPU Nov 2019 - Budget, Mid and High End PC System Processors - 15th Nov 19
Lend Money Without A Credit Check — Is That Possible? - 15th Nov 19
Gold and Silver Capitulation Time - 14th Nov 19
The Case for a Silver Price Rally - 14th Nov 19
What Happens To The Global Economy If the Oil Price Collapses Below $40 - 14th Nov 19
7 days of Free FX + Crypto Forecasts -- Join in - 14th Nov 19
How to Use Price Cycles and Profit as a Swing Trader – SPX, Bonds, Gold, Nat Gas - 13th Nov 19
Morrisons Throwing Thousands of Bonus More Points at Big Spend Shoppers - JACKPOT! - 13th Nov 19
What to Do NOW in Case of a Future Banking System Breakdown - 13th Nov 19
Why China is likely to remain the ‘world’s factory’ for some time to come - 13th Nov 19
Gold Price Breaks Down, Waving Good-bye to the 2019 Rally - 12th Nov 19
Fed Can't See the Bubbles Through the Lather - 12th Nov 19
Double 11 Record Sales Signal Strength of Chinese Consumption - 12th Nov 19
Welcome to the Zombie-land Of Oil, Gold and Stocks Investing – Part II - 12th Nov 19
Gold Retest Coming - 12th Nov 19
New Evidence Futures Markets Are Built for Manipulation - 12th Nov 19
Next 5 Year Future Proof Gaming PC Build Spec November 2019 - Ryzen 9 3900x, RTX 2080Ti... - 12th Nov 19
Gold and Silver - The Two Horsemen - 11th Nov 19
Towards a Diverging BRIC Future - 11th Nov 19
Welcome to the Zombie-land Of Stock Market Investing - 11th Nov 19
Illiquidity & Gold And Silver In The End Game - 11th Nov 19
Key Things You Need to Know When Starting a Business - 11th Nov 19
Stock Market Cycles Peaking - 11th Nov 19
Avoid Emotional Investing in Cryptocurrency - 11th Nov 19
Australian Lithium Mines NOT Viable at Current Prices - 10th Nov 19
The 10 Highest Paying Jobs In Oil & Gas - 10th Nov 19
World's Major Gold Miners Target Copper Porphyries - 10th Nov 19
AMAZON NOVEMBER 2019 BARGAIN PRICES - WD My Book 8TB External Drive for £126 - 10th Nov 19
Gold & Silver to Head Dramatically Higher, Mirroring Palladium - 9th Nov 19
How Do YOU Know the Direction of a Market's Larger Trend? - 9th Nov 19
BEST Amazon SMART Scale To Aid Weight Loss for Christmas 2019 - 9th Nov 19
Why Every Investor Should Invest in Water - 8th Nov 19
Wait… Was That a Bullish Silver Reversal? - 8th Nov 19
Gold, Silver and Copper The 3 Metallic Amigos and the Macro Message - 8th Nov 19
Is China locking up Indonesian Nickel? - 8th Nov 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

$4 Billion Golden Oppoerunity

SP500: A Butcher's Stock Market (Chop Chop Chop)

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015 Apr 20, 2015 - 08:36 AM GMT

By: Dan_Norcini

Stock-Markets

It sure does seem as if the vast majority of our markets are stuck in sideways trading patterns, does it not? Just about the time some look as if they are going to mount an upside breakout, they fail and fall back down once again. The flip side is that some markets look as if they are going to stage a downside breakout, they reverse higher and back up they go. The result of all of this has been to slice and dice or chop and shred traders who are attempting to build any sort of POSITIONS BASED ON LONGER TERM VIEWS.


In order to survive and prosper, traders are being forced into becoming scalpers or day traders, holding positions for only short periods of time and reversing back and forth very quickly between playing the long side and playing the short side.

The same goes for the S&P 500, which as you can see from the chart, has done quite a bit of back and forth this year only with the result of barely being up since the start of trading in 2015. "Full of sound and fury, signifying nothing", comes to mind.

Traders are seeing Q1 economic data as less than stellar and are concerned about earnings for the first quarter disappointing. While many are expecting earnings and economic growth to recover in Q2 and beyond, the facts are that for the time being, investors are somewhat dubious over the near term prospects for equities. That is leading to some very volatile back and forth trade in which no clear trend has emerged.

eMini S&P500 Daily Chart

That can be seen from the following chart which shows the Bollinger bands continuing to contract as the Bandwidth indicator makes abundantly clear. So far this year there has only been a brief period during which the S&P looked as if it was reasserting a more vigorous uptrending move. That took place in February where the bands were widening out as the index moved strongly higher notching a new all-time high in the process.

Since then the market has stalled out and been unable to press higher. Support however has remained intact at the lower band.

Until we see some further evidence of consistent improvement in US economic data, this looks to be the pattern that will continue in the S&P. Meanwhile, Greece fears, China concerns over the raising of margins and relaxation of rules governing short selling, plus earnings concerns in the US are working to provide selling pressure in equities with bulls banking on improvements as the year progresses. Currently neither bulls or bears have a clear cut advantage in this particular index although the intermediate term trend favors the bulls.

eMini S&P500 Weeky Chart 1

As you can see on that time frame, the trend higher seems relentless in spite of the fact that one bearish divergence signal after another has been flashing since last summer. That has not stopped the bulls from pushing this thing higher however. As a matter of fact, the RSI, while showing these negative divergences ( price makes a higher high while the technical indicator makes a lower high), has maintained its footing solidly above the 40 level, a level which generally will not hold if the market posture shifts from bullish to bearish.

In other words, the sideways action of the RSI tells us that while upside momentum continues to wane, the posture of this market remains one of a bull.

eMini S&P500 Weeky Chart 2

The index would need to fail near 1800 before one could say that from a technical perspective, there is any sign of a definitive top. It could fall to that level and while it would obviously disappoint the bulls, unless the RSI fell below the 40 level, one would still have to call such a move lower merely a retracement lower in an ongoing, albeit grindingly slow, bull market.

Dan Norcini

http://traderdan.com

Dan Norcini is a professional off-the-floor commodities trader bringing more than 25 years experience in the markets to provide a trader's insight and commentary on the day's price action. His editorial contributions and supporting technical analysis charts cover a broad range of tradable entities including the precious metals and foreign exchange markets as well as the broader commodity world including the grain and livestock markets. He is a frequent contributor to both Reuters and Dow Jones as a market analyst for the livestock sector and can be on occasion be found as a source in the Wall Street Journal's commodities section. Trader Dan has also been a regular contributor in the past at Jim Sinclair's JS Mineset and King News World as well as may other Precious Metals oriented websites.

Copyright © 2015 Dan Norcini - All Rights Reserved

All ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts, expressed or implied herein, are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to invest, trade, and/or speculate in the markets. Any investments, trades, and/or speculations made in light of the ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise. The information on this site has been prepared without regard to any particular investor’s investment objectives, financial situation, and needs. Accordingly, investors should not act on any information on this site without obtaining specific advice from their financial advisor. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Dan Norcini Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules