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Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Stock Market Rally May be Broken

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015 Oct 09, 2015 - 06:42 PM GMT

By: Anthony_Cherniawski


At 9:59 am the SPX made a failed attempt at a new high, missing by 95 ticks. It appears to be coming back down and may break the uptrend at 2010.00. SPX regains its sell signal below the 50-day Moving Average at 1993.78.

The reason I brought up the time element is that it is exactly 51.6 hours from the low on Sept 29.

More comments about the swing trades. You will notice that there are no Trading Cycles indicated at the turns. The reason is that the Trading Cycles stopped working on July 7. Soon after, on August 5, the VIX bottomed for the last time. I believe that the increase in Volatility has changed the landscape of the Cycles enough to drive the other Cycles analysts crazy.

Since then the Primary Cycles (largely unknown by the general public) have given the best signals. There are two probable reasons. First is the increase in Volatility. Trading Cycles work best, it seems, in low Volatility environments. Second, Primary Cycles are switch hitters, while Trading Cycles are low-to-low, generally speaking.

Another observation…it seems that the Primary Cycle Tops are late, while the Primary Cycle Bottoms appear early. This may be that momentum to the upside is being affected by the current (hopeful) sentiment. The early bottoms usually come because the Powers-that-be are constantly testing the market (especially in the early morning) to sway the short sellers to become buy-the-dippers.

VIX appears to be working on a very concise schedule. What is startling is that the 8/24 high was not foreseen in VIX but was certainly indicated in VIX derivatives (ETFs). The coming Primary Cycle high in VIX is due on 10/21. However, the derivative high is due on 10/23. My bet is on that indicator, since the VIX ETFs usage appears to be on the rise.

TNX seems to be working in a close proximity to SPX. It foretold a low on 8/19, predating and warning us of the actual low on 8/24, 3 market days early. The Reversal pattern in19/16 was also 3 market days early, but spot-on for the Master Cycle low in USB.

This week, the Primary Cycle high was due on 10/6, but completed today. What appears to be happening is a synthesis of time (Model) and distance (Charts) among multiple asset classes.

This is not meant to be a mechanical model, but one that may enhance our understanding of the Cycles and how they work among asset classes.

As you can see on the charts, I intend to use this Model going forward and hope that it greatly assists you. Just trading the Pivots alone appear to be profitable, but combined with observing the Charts and good judgement, we appear to have a winning combination.

Let me have your feedback.


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As a State Registered Investment Advisor, The Practical Investor (TPI) manages private client investment portfolios using a proprietary investment strategy created by Chief Investment Officer Tony Cherniawski. Throughout 2000-01, when many investors felt the pain of double digit market losses, TPI successfully navigated the choppy investment waters, creating a profit for our private investment clients. With a focus on preserving assets and capitalizing on opportunities, TPI clients benefited greatly from the TPI strategies, allowing them to stay on track with their life goals

Disclaimer: The content in this article is written for educational and informational purposes only.  There is no offer or recommendation to buy or sell any security and no information contained here should be interpreted or construed as investment advice. Do you own due diligence as the information in this article is the opinion of Anthony M. Cherniawski and subject to change without notice.

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