Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.UK House Prices BrExit Crash NOT Likely Despite London Property Market Weakness - Nadeem_Walayat
2.BrExit Morning - New Dawn for Britain, Independence Day! - Nadeem_Walayat
3.LEAVE Wins EU Referendum - Sterling and FTSE Hit Hard, Pollsters, Bookies and Markets All WRONG! - Nadeem_Walayat
4.BrExit Implications for UK Stock Market, Sterling GBP, House Prices and UK Politics... - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Trading BrExit - Stocks, Bonds, Sterling, Opinion Polls, Bookmaker Odds and My Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
6.FTSE and Sterling Brexit Trading, Deconstruction of the EU Referendum Result - Nadeem_Walayat
7.UK Interest Rate Cut to 0.25% Imminent and More QE Money Printing - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Trading BrExit - British Pound Plunges, FTSE Stock Futures Slump on LEAVE Shock Referendum Win - Nadeem_Walayat
9.The Stock Market is Reading it Wrong! - Chris_Vermeulen
10.Breakouts Galore in Gold and Silver - Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Free Silver
Last 7 days
Silver Market COT Stuns: What's Going On Here? - 24th July 16
Gold Demand Remains Stable During Sector Weakness - 24th July 16
Sernova, Diabetes and Haemophilia - 24th July 16
Russia: Tensions, Turmoil, and Western Hubris - 24th July 16
Soybean Commodity Price to Soar Again - 23rd July 16
SPX Stock Market Uptrend Continues - 23rd July 16
Gold And Silver – Debt Addiction Will Carry Precious Metals Higher, Guaranteed - 23rd July 16
Pokemon Go - How to Play, First Use, Balls, Stops, Catching Pokemon's... Great Excercise! - 23rd July 16
7 Signs That the Gold Market Remains Resilient - 23rd July 16
Basic Income in The Time of Crisis - 23rd July 16
Silver Bull Faces Correction - 22nd July 16
The Serious Warning No One’s Talking About - 22nd July 16
Stock Market Insight from Greed, Volatility, and Put/Call Ratio - 22nd July 16
What Will Happen To the Stock Market When Interest Rates Rise? - 22nd July 16
How to Escape the World’s Biggest Ponzi Scheme - 22nd July 16
Addicted to Debt - We Can’t Borrow from the Future Anymore - 21st July 16
Not Everything Is Bullish for Gold - 21st July 16
Don’t Get Sucked Back Into the Stock Market - The Big Picture Hasn’t Changed - 21st July 16
Silver – Caught Inside - 21st July 16
Forex: "The Markets Are Getting Exciting!" - 20th July 16
China Economic Troubles - Is Kyle Bass Finally Getting His Revenge? - 20th July 16
Why Lithium Will See Another Price Spike This Fall - 20th July 16
The Peak Oil Paradox Revisited - 19th July 16
SPX Challenges the Upper Trendline - 19th July 16
Missing ’28 Pages’ of the 9/11 Report Released into Blitzkrieg of World Events - 19th July 16
Likelihood of Organized Disruption at GOP Convention - 19th July 16
More on the ‘Breadth Thrust’ and Stock Market Internals - 19th July 16
FX Traders: Get a Free Week of Forecasts (Details inside) - 19th July 16
Ups and Downs in Gold and Crude Oil Price - 19th July 16
Keep an Eye on ‘Bitcoin’ as the Next ‘Financial Crisis’ Starts! - 18th July 16
Erdogan Might Have Known about the Coup but Didn’t Prevent It on Purpose - 18th July 16
More Deflation Ahead: Silver, Gold And Their Mining Stocks A Must-Have - 18th July 16
Stock Market Minor Top? - 18th July 16
5 Best Gold and Silver Junior Mining Stocks in 2016 - 17th July 16
Gold And Silver – NWO-Created Tragedies Will Never End, Seek Truth - 16th July 16
How Long Can Buybacks Continue To Support A Market Which Is Standing On A Fundamentally Flawed Premise? - 16th July 16
Will They Come For Your IRA? - 15th July 16
Gold’s Record Selling Overhang - 15th July 16
Capitalism Has Entered a New Era—and Historic Stock Market Investing Returns Are Gone Forever - 15th July 16
Gold Price Could Hit $5,000 or Even $10,000 in a Few Years - 15th July 16
Junior Gold and Silver Mining Funds or Individual Gold and Silver Mining Stocks - 15th July 16
The Soaring Risk of Flying in Bernanke's Helicopter - 15th July 16
The Broad Stock Market, Helicopters and Gold - 15th July 16
The Curious Case of Vanishing Lady Liberty; Only Gold and Silver Remember Her - 15th July 16

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Forex Forecasts

Stock Market Bounce, But No Overlap

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016 Jan 26, 2016 - 03:57 PM GMT

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Stock-Markets

Good Morning!

SPX bounced in the Premarket, but did not overlap, which is a condition of a declining impulse. Confirmation of that would be

Evident only after the open. A gap down open would suggest Wave 3 may be underway.


You can read about the overnight whipsaw in the e-mini.. The upshot of that was ZeroHedge’s blaming the ramp on Dennis Gartman, who seems to be the whipping boy for his attempts to call the market. Of course we know that isn’t true, but someone who is in the limelight as Dennis is, is bound to be poked fun of.

The VIX futures are down at the present time, but no new low. It is possible to take another dip to mid-cycle support at 21.30 to make Wave v of (c) more in line with the length of Wave I of (c).

TNX has bounced off its 2-hour Cycle Bottom support this morning. Should it break into positive territory, it raises the probability of a Wave (c) bounce to 21.22. All is not certain yet, so we will be watching this action. The Cycles Model suggests that the period of strength may have already passed as of last Friday morning when it peaked out at 20.89.

Filling the gap at 20.62 will tell us whether TNX may go higher in this retracement or not.

Much of the influence on our markets comes from the China markets. The Shanghai Index made a new 14-month low last night, closing at 2749.79, a 6.42% decline. This may mitigate against a new high in the SPX.

ZeroHedge reports, “It has been another volatile, illiquid, whipsawed session, driven by the only two things that have mattered so far in 2016, China and oil.... and stop-hunting algos of course.

A quick look at the former first reveals that after sliding gradually all session, Chinese stocks puked in the last hour of trading with the China's Shanghai Composite Index plunging 6.4% to 2,750, the most since the first week of January, and falling to the lowest level since December 2014. The composite has now plunged 22% in 2016 alone and is the world's worst-performing primary equity index this year.”

One consideration is that this may be an extended Wave [b], in which case, the Shanghai Index would need a 9% rally in two days to complete a probable period of strength that may last until Thursday. Don’t discount anything in a bear market.

Gold forged higher in the overnight markets and made a new high of 1118.00. It has since pulled back to 111.80 in a probable Wave iv of (v). There appears to be one more probe higher to the probable target of the mid-Cycle resistance at 1128.08. Once accomplished, the decline resumes. I will try to keep you informed when that occurs.

WTIC challenged its Cycle Bottom this morning at 29.80, but did not remain below it. Despite the giant rally and decline, don’t dismiss the possibility of another ramp toward the neckline at 34.50.

The Cycles Model is not suggesting any moves for this week but has a quadruple Primary Cycle low on or near February 10.

A decline that sticks beneath the cycle Bottom may confirm the decline to an epic low is confirmed.

Regards,

Tony

Our Investment Advisor Registration is on the Web

We are in the process of updating our website at www.thepracticalinvestor.com to have more information on our services. Log on and click on Advisor Registration to get more details.

If you are a client or wish to become one, please make an appointment to discuss our investment strategies by calling Connie or Tony at (517) 699-1554, ext 10 or 11. Or e-mail us at tpi@thepracticalinvestor.com .

Anthony M. Cherniawski, President and CIO http://www.thepracticalinvestor.com

As a State Registered Investment Advisor, The Practical Investor (TPI) manages private client investment portfolios using a proprietary investment strategy created by Chief Investment Officer Tony Cherniawski. Throughout 2000-01, when many investors felt the pain of double digit market losses, TPI successfully navigated the choppy investment waters, creating a profit for our private investment clients. With a focus on preserving assets and capitalizing on opportunities, TPI clients benefited greatly from the TPI strategies, allowing them to stay on track with their life goals

Disclaimer: The content in this article is written for educational and informational purposes only.  There is no offer or recommendation to buy or sell any security and no information contained here should be interpreted or construed as investment advice. Do you own due diligence as the information in this article is the opinion of Anthony M. Cherniawski and subject to change without notice.

Anthony M. Cherniawski Archive

© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife