Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. 2019 From A Fourth Turning Perspective - James_Quinn
2.Beware the Young Stocks Bear Market! - Zeal_LLC
3.Safe Havens are Surging. What this Means for Stocks 2019 - Troy_Bombardia
4.Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of 2018 - Trump and BrExit Chaos Dominate - Nadeem_Walayat
5.January 2019 Financial Markets Analysis and Forecasts - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Silver Price Trend Analysis 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Why 90% of Traders Lose - Nadeem_Walayat
8.What to do With Your Money in a Stocks Bear Market - Stephen_McBride
9.Stock Market What to Expect in the First 3~5 Months of 2019 - Chris_Vermeulen
10.China, Global Economy has Tipped over: The Surging Dollar and the Rallying Yen - FXCOT
Last 7 days
Stock Market VIX Volaility Analysis - 19th Mar 19
FREE Access to Stock and Finanacial Markets Trading Analysis Worth $1229! - 19th Mar 19
US Stock Markets Price Anomaly Setup Continues - 19th Mar 19
Gold Price Confirmation of the Warning - 18th Mar 19
Split Stock Market Warning - 18th Mar 19
Stock Market Trend Analysis 2019 - Video - 18th Mar 19
Best Precious Metals Investment and Trades for 2019 - 18th Mar 19
Hurdles for Gold Stocks - 18th Mar 19
Pento: Coming QE & Low Rates Will Be ‘Rocket Fuel for Gold’ - 18th Mar 19
"This is for Tommy Robinson" Shouts Knife Wielding White Supremacist Terrorist in London - 18th Mar 19
This Is How You Create the Biggest Credit Bubble in History - 17th Mar 19
Crude Oil Bulls - For Whom the Bell Tolls - 17th Mar 19
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 17th Mar 19
Why Buy a Land Rover - Range Rover vs Huge Tree Branch Falling on its Roof - 17th Mar 19
UKIP Urged to Change Name to BNP 2.0 So BrExit Party Can Fight a 2nd EU Referendum - 17th Mar 19
Tommy Robinson Looks Set to Become New UKIP Leader - 16th Mar 19
Gold Final Warning: Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - 16th Mar 19
Towards the End of a Stocks Bull Market, Short term Timing Becomes Difficult - 16th Mar 19
UKIP Brexit Facebook Groups Reveling in the New Zealand Terror Attacks Blaming Muslim Victims - 16th Mar 19
Gold – US Dollar vs US Dollar Index - 16th Mar 19
Islamophobic Hate Preachers Tommy Robinson and Katie Hopkins have Killed UKIP and Brexit - 16th Mar 19
Countdown to The Precious Metals Gold and Silver Breakout Rally - 15th Mar 19
Shale Oil Splutters: Brent on Track for $70 Target $100 in 2020 - 15th Mar 19
Setting up a Business Just Got Easier - 15th Mar 19
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis Trend Forercast - Video - 15th Mar 19
Gold Warning - Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - Part 1 - 15th Mar 19
UK Weather SHOCK - Trees Dropping Branches onto Cars in Stormy Winds - Sheffield - 15th Mar 19
Best Time to Trade Forex - 15th Mar 19
Why the Green New Deal Will Send Uranium Price Through the Roof - 14th Mar 19
S&P 500's New Medium-Term High, but Will Stock Market Uptrend Continue? - 14th Mar 19
US Conservatism - 14th Mar 19
Gold in the Age of High-speed Electronic Trading - 14th Mar 19
Britain's Demographic Time Bomb Has Gone Off! - 14th Mar 19
Why Walmart Will Crush Amazon - 14th Mar 19
2019 Economic Predictions - 14th Mar 19
Tax Avoidance Bills Sent to Thousands of Workers - 14th Mar 19
The Exponential Stocks Bull Market Explained - Video - 13th Mar 19
TSP Recession Indicator - Criss-Cross, Flip-Flop and Remembering 1966 - 13th Mar 19
Stock Investors Beware The Signs Of Recession / Deflation - 13th Mar 19
Is the Stock Market Still in a Bear Market? - 13th Mar 19
Stock Market Trend Analysis 2019 - 13th Mar 19
Gold Up-to-Date' COT Report: A Maddening Déjà Vu - 12th Mar 19
Save Fintech? Ban Short Selling. It's Not That Simple - 12th Mar 19
Palladium Blowup Could Expose Scam of Gold & Silver Futures - 12th Mar 19
Next Recession: Concentrating Future Losses & Bringing Them Forward In Time As Profits - 12th Mar 19
The Shift of the Philippine Peso Regime - 12th Mar 19
Theresa May BrExit Back Stab Deal Counting Down to Resignation, Tory Leadership Election - 12th Mar 19
Phase 1 of Stock Market Correction - 11th Mar 19
Long Awaited Stock Market Pullback has Finally Arrived - 11th Mar 19
US Presidential Cycle and the Stock Market - Video - 11th Mar 19
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis Trend Forercast - 11th Mar 19
Chinese Economic Data Shakes the Global Stock Markets - 11th Mar 19
The Fed Is Playing a Dangerous Game - 11th Mar 19
The Stock Market Has Called the Fed’s Bluff, What’s Next? - 11th Mar 19
Turkey Holiday Bazaar Extreme Jewelry Price Haggling - Fethiye Market - 11th Mar 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock and Finanacial Markets Trading Analysis Worth

Lumber Commodity Price Limbers Up

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016 Apr 08, 2016 - 10:53 AM GMT

By: Austin_Galt

Commodities

The lumber price has traded pretty much exactly as outlined in analysis, titled Lumber Lambasted and Lumber Looking Lousy, produced in May 2015 and September 2015 respectively.

I expect price to continue to trade as outlined in those analyses but it doesn't hurt to update the picture so let's do just that beginning with the monthly chart.


Lumber Monthly Chart

Lumber Monthly Chart

The Bollinger Bands show price has bounced right back up to the upper band and I expect resistance to come in here and send price right back down.

The Fibonacci Fan drawn from the 2009 low to 2013 high shows price is back up at resistance from the 61.8% angle. I favour price to fall from here with the expectation of the final low being down around support from the 88.6% angle.

I have added Fibonacci retracement levels of the move up from the 2009 low to 2013 high and, as laid out previously, I am looking for the final low to get down to at least the 76.4% level which stands at $200.

The RSI shows a bullish divergence in place while a new price low would likely set up a triple bullish divergence.

The MACD indicator is bullish but the averages have diverged a bit and a move back down would rectify that.

Lumber Weekly Chart

Lumber Weekly Chart

As outlined previously, we are following a 5 point broadening low and I believe the point 4 high to now be in place at the $319 quote. Now for the final move down to put in a point 5 low.

The Bollinger Bands show price has left the upper band although I think price will have one last lash at it before the downtrend really gets going.

The Fibonacci Fan drawn from the August 2014 high to point 1 low shows some very nice symmetry with price. The point 2 high was at resistance from the 61.8% angle, the point 3 low was at support from the 23.6% angle while this current point 4 high was just below the 88.6% angle.

The RSI was oversold and now looks headed back down while the MACD indicator looks to be turning back down.

Let's finish up the analysis by looking in close with the daily chart.

Lumber Daily Chart

Lumber Daily Chart

The Bollinger Bands show price trading down to the lower band which looks to be providing some support. There is often some toing and froing between the bands during trend changes and I now favour price to head back to near the upper band and put in a lower high.

The Fibonacci Fan shows the recent high at resistance from the 23.6% angle while price looks to have found support at the 50% angle. I now favour a move back up to test the resistance from the 38.2% angle and it is around that angle that I favour a lower high to form.

I have added Fibonacci retracement levels of the move down from the high. The first rally in a new bear trend often makes a deep retracement and I favour price to rally back to at least the 76.4% level which stands at $311.

The recent high showed a quadruple bearish divergence on the RSI so that is a good sign for the bears.

The MACD indicator is bearish.

Summing up, price has traded as outlined in previous analysis and everything appears set for the downtrend to continue.

By Austin Galt

www.thevoodooanalyst.com 

Austin Galt is The Voodoo Analyst. I have studied charts for over 20 years and am currently a private trader. Several years ago I worked as a licensed advisor with a well known Australian stock broker. While there was an abundance of fundamental analysts, there seemed to be a dearth of technical analysts. My aim here is to provide my view of technical analysis that is both intriguing and misunderstood by many. I like to refer to it as the black magic of stock market analysis.

Email - info@thevoodooanalyst.com 

My website is www.thevoodooanalyst.com 

© 2016 Copyright  The Voodoo Analyst - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Austin Galt Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules