Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. 2019 From A Fourth Turning Perspective - James_Quinn
2.Beware the Young Stocks Bear Market! - Zeal_LLC
3.Safe Havens are Surging. What this Means for Stocks 2019 - Troy_Bombardia
4.Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of 2018 - Trump and BrExit Chaos Dominate - Nadeem_Walayat
5.January 2019 Financial Markets Analysis and Forecasts - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Silver Price Trend Analysis 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Why 90% of Traders Lose - Nadeem_Walayat
8.What to do With Your Money in a Stocks Bear Market - Stephen_McBride
9.Stock Market What to Expect in the First 3~5 Months of 2019 - Chris_Vermeulen
10.China, Global Economy has Tipped over: The Surging Dollar and the Rallying Yen - FXCOT
Last 7 days
Does Fed Know Something Gold Investors Do Not Know? - 21st Mar 19
Gold …Some Confirmations to Watch For - 21st Mar 19
UKIP No Longer About BrExit, Becomes BNP 2.0, Muslim Hate Party - 21st Mar 19
A Message to the Gold Bulls: Relying on the CoT Gives You A False Sense of Security - 20th Mar 19
The Secret to Funding a Green New Deal - 20th Mar 19
Vietnam, Part I: Colonialism and National Liberation - 20th Mar 19
Will the Fed Cut its Interest Rate Forecast, Pushing Gold Higher? - 20th Mar 19
Dow Jones Stock Market Topping Pattern - 20th Mar 19
Gold Stocks Outperform Gold but Not Stocks - 20th Mar 19
Here’s What You’re Not Hearing About the US - China Trade War - 20th Mar 19
US Overdosing on Debt - 19th Mar 19
Looking at the Economic Winter Season Ahead - 19th Mar 19
Will the Stock Market Crash Like 1937? - 19th Mar 19
Stock Market VIX Volaility Analysis - 19th Mar 19
FREE Access to Stock and Finanacial Markets Trading Analysis Worth $1229! - 19th Mar 19
US Stock Markets Price Anomaly Setup Continues - 19th Mar 19
Gold Price Confirmation of the Warning - 18th Mar 19
Split Stock Market Warning - 18th Mar 19
Stock Market Trend Analysis 2019 - Video - 18th Mar 19
Best Precious Metals Investment and Trades for 2019 - 18th Mar 19
Hurdles for Gold Stocks - 18th Mar 19
Pento: Coming QE & Low Rates Will Be ‘Rocket Fuel for Gold’ - 18th Mar 19
"This is for Tommy Robinson" Shouts Knife Wielding White Supremacist Terrorist in London - 18th Mar 19
This Is How You Create the Biggest Credit Bubble in History - 17th Mar 19
Crude Oil Bulls - For Whom the Bell Tolls - 17th Mar 19
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 17th Mar 19
Why Buy a Land Rover - Range Rover vs Huge Tree Branch Falling on its Roof - 17th Mar 19
UKIP Urged to Change Name to BNP 2.0 So BrExit Party Can Fight a 2nd EU Referendum - 17th Mar 19
Tommy Robinson Looks Set to Become New UKIP Leader - 16th Mar 19
Gold Final Warning: Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - 16th Mar 19
Towards the End of a Stocks Bull Market, Short term Timing Becomes Difficult - 16th Mar 19
UKIP Brexit Facebook Groups Reveling in the New Zealand Terror Attacks Blaming Muslim Victims - 16th Mar 19
Gold – US Dollar vs US Dollar Index - 16th Mar 19
Islamophobic Hate Preachers Tommy Robinson and Katie Hopkins have Killed UKIP and Brexit - 16th Mar 19
Countdown to The Precious Metals Gold and Silver Breakout Rally - 15th Mar 19
Shale Oil Splutters: Brent on Track for $70 Target $100 in 2020 - 15th Mar 19
Setting up a Business Just Got Easier - 15th Mar 19
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis Trend Forercast - Video - 15th Mar 19
Gold Warning - Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - Part 1 - 15th Mar 19
UK Weather SHOCK - Trees Dropping Branches onto Cars in Stormy Winds - Sheffield - 15th Mar 19
Best Time to Trade Forex - 15th Mar 19
Why the Green New Deal Will Send Uranium Price Through the Roof - 14th Mar 19
S&P 500's New Medium-Term High, but Will Stock Market Uptrend Continue? - 14th Mar 19
US Conservatism - 14th Mar 19
Gold in the Age of High-speed Electronic Trading - 14th Mar 19
Britain's Demographic Time Bomb Has Gone Off! - 14th Mar 19
Why Walmart Will Crush Amazon - 14th Mar 19
2019 Economic Predictions - 14th Mar 19
Tax Avoidance Bills Sent to Thousands of Workers - 14th Mar 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock Market Trend Forecast March to September 2019

US Stock Market, Big Picture View

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016 Oct 13, 2016 - 05:34 PM GMT

By: Gary_Tanashian

Stock-Markets

Because perspective is everything, let’s once again get some big picture perspective…

S&P 500 is outside the lower fork line (again the Fork being a novelty, but the line being real) but above critical support.  Bears would call this an overthrow to the upside and massive bull trap.  We can call it an intact bull market above support and a very bearish market should that support be lost.


We’ll throw in other time frames on the SPX for reference.  When the weekly chart crossed those two moving averages up and then got through resistance (now support), it went bullish.  Simple.

SPX daily chart is at the wedge bottom, but serious support is lower still.

Dow egg is in its little nest, with Mommy Bird Janet Yellen sitting atop of it keeping it warm and comfy incubating it for years on end after Daddy Bird flew the coop.  Let’s put aside for a moment that the bond market is making initial signs of disrupting Mommy Bird.  Above the solid and dotted green lines… bullish.  Below them, scrambled eggs.

Nasdaq 100 is in blue sky.  So if you’re getting good and bearish, let’s just remember that.  The first step to a technical bearish situation – a monthly close below 4816.35 – has not even been taken.  And that would only be a small step.

Semiconductor Index continues to target what it targets.  I believe the target was 870 based on the short-term pattern, but we have had 930 in view since early 2014 (the year that Semis were supposedly imploding) with the 750 target long ago put in the books.  I am cautious about owning this stuff after taking profit all around (except Intel), but if the market only corrects and does not go big picture bearish a pullback here could be another buying opportunity.

Finally, last and least, is the Russell 2000.  The reason I say least is that these stocks have the least in market cap (among the headline indexes), the least reward vs. risk proposition (see the weekly leadership chart below) and the least attractive monthly chart.  This wild man has already done a 38% Fib retrace, bounced back hard and retains a pattern that can only be described as gross as long as it is below 1300.

We did measure out a still unregistered target of around 1350 for this years ago, by the way.  That was based on the giant ‘Cup’ formed from 2007 to 2011.  However, here we can recall the HUI Gold Bugs index, on which I had a similar Cup measuring to near 900.  That one proved to be a, ah, bad target.  So there’s that caveat.

Here’s the weekly ‘leadership’ indicator chart.  This has guided us on Small Cap leadership in 2016 (green dotted uptrend channel) but greatly increased risk relative to Large Caps (gold downtrend channel).  Again, simple.

As for rolling the above into the current view, it’s a smooth transition.  The stock market has been bullish since the signal was made on the S&P 500 (with the weekly EMA 20 crossing above the EMA 50) and the Brexit hysteria failed to be anything other than short-term bullish.  Here is another view of the second chart above, adding some long-term perspective with similar signals and would-be signal.  This has so far turned out to be more like 1998 and 2011 than 2001 and 2008.

Very simply, the bulls have the ball, period.  The bears want that ball and all they have to do is crack the big picture support parameters in order to make things not just bearish, but potentially extremely so, given that the recent breaks upward to blue sky in many indexes would then be painted as an epic final suck in on a bullish overthrow.

So how about a little patience as things play out.  The short-term theme has been for a  pullback to test major support.  Let’s let that play out before making any grand calls.

Subscribe to NFTRH Premium for your 25-35 page weekly report, interim updates (including Key ETF charts) and NFTRH+ chart and trade ideas or the free eLetter for an introduction to our work. Or simply keep up to date with plenty of public content at NFTRH.com and Biiwii.com.

By Gary Tanashian

http://biiwii.com

© 2016 Copyright  Gary Tanashian - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Gary Tanashian Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules