Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.US Paving the Way for Massive First Strike on North Korea Nuclear and Missile Infrastructure - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Trump Reset: US War With China, North Korea Nuclear Flashpoint - Video - Nadeem_Walayat
3.Silver Junior Mining Stocks 2017 Q2 Fundamentals - Zeal_LLC
4.Soaring Inflation Plunges UK Economy Into Stagflation, Triggers Government Pay Cap Panic! - Nadeem_Walayat
5.The Bitcoin Blueprint To Your Financial Freedom - Sean Keyes
6.North Korea 'Begging for War', 'Enough is Enough', is a US Nuclear Strike Imminent? - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Hits All-Time High and Smashes Through $5,000 As Gold Shows Continued Strength - Jeff_Berwick
8.2017 is NOT "Just Another Year" for the Stock Market: Here's Why - EWI
9.Gold : The Anatomy of the Bottoming Process - Rambus_Chartology
10.Bitcoin Falls 20% as Mobius and Chinese Regulators Warn - GoldCore
Last 7 days
4 Reasons Gold is Starting to Look Attractive as Cryptocurrencies Falter - 21st Sep 17
Should Liners Invest in Shipping Software Solutions and Benefits of Using Packaged Shipping Software - 21st Sep 17
The 5 Biggest Bubbles In Markets Today - 20th Sep 17
Infographic: The Everything Bubble Is Ready to Pop - 20th Sep 17
Americans Don’t Grasp The Magnitude Of The Looming Pension Tsunami That May Hit Us Within 10 Years - 20th Sep 17
Stock Market Waiting Game... - 20th Sep 17
Precious Metals Sector is on Major Buy Signal - 20th Sep 17
US Equities Destined For Negative Returns In The Next 7 Years - 3 Assets To Invest In Instead - 20th Sep 17
Looking For the Next Big Stock? Look at Design - 20th Sep 17
Self Employed? Understanding Business Insurance - 19th Sep 17
Stock Market Bubble Fortunes - 19th Sep 17
USD/CHF – Verification of Breakout or Further Declines? - 19th Sep 17
Blockchain Tech: Don't Say You Didn't Know - 19th Sep 17
The Fed’s 2% Inflation Target Is Pointless - 19th Sep 17
How To Resolve the Korean Conundrum  - 19th Sep 17
A World Doomed to a Never Ending War - 19th Sep 17
What is Backtesting? And Why You Need Backtesting System? - 19th Sep 17
These Two Articles Debunk The Biggest Financial Nonsense I See In The Media - 18th Sep 17
Bitcoin Price Crash 40% In 3 Days Underlining Gold’s Safe Haven Credentials - 18th Sep 17
The Sum of Risks – Global, Strategic, Political, and Financial - 18th Sep 17
The Netflix Of Canada’s Cannabis Boom - 18th Sep 17
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Either You Learn From The Events Of The Past Week, Or You Are Hopeless - 18th Sep 17
SPX 2500 … At Last! - 18th Sep 17
Inflation Lies, Lies and OMG More Lies - 18th Sep 17
How to Choose right Forex Trader? - 18th Sep 17
Who Has Shaped the World the Most? The Dozen Greatest Achievers - 17th Sep 17
Riding the ‘Slide’: Is This What the Next Stocks Bear Market Looks Like? - 17th Sep 17
Gold Up, Markets Fatigued As War Talk Boils Over - 17th Sep 17
Predicting the Future of the U.S. and the World - 16th Sep 17
Deceit in the Financial Food Chain - 16th Sep 17
Gold GLD ETF Investment Resuming - 16th Sep 17
Extreme Weather & Energy Markets: What's Next? - Video - 15th Sep 17
Trump’s Path to IP Wars - 15th Sep 17
GBP USD Approaches Fibonacci Target - 15th Sep 17
Higher US Interest Rates May Force Higher Inflation Rates - 15th Sep 17
Stock Market Investors: Taking the Road "Less Traveled" Has Its Perks - 15th Sep 17
The 3 Best P2P Lending Platforms For Investors In 2017—Detailed Analysis - 15th Sep 17
The US Debt Bubble Will Soon Warrant Serious Measures - 15th Sep 17
Why it is Often Difficult to Sell a House Fast - 15th Sep 17
S&P 500 At New Record High, Will It Break Above 2,500? - 14th Sep 17
Capital Market Trends - 14th Sep 17
Mike Maloney: The Top 10 Reasons I Own Gold and Silver - 14th Sep 17
The Only Real Europe is Greece - 14th Sep 17
7 Security Tips for Online Traders - 14th Sep 17

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

5 Markets Ready to Move Before Year-End. Eexpert Analysis and New Trading Opportunities

Emerging Markets & Basic Materials Stocks Breaking Out Together

Commodities / Resources Investing Jul 16, 2017 - 03:24 PM GMT

By: Rambus_Chartology

Commodities

While most members are focused on the precious metals ,I’ve been waiting patiently for two other sectors to setup a long term buy signal which I believe happened last week. I know you are well aware of my mantra that big consolidation patterns lead to big impulse moves. What’s pretty amazing is these 2 sectors have an almost identical long term consolidation pattern and are breaking out at the same time. It stands to reason that if the Emerging Markets are going to be strong then the Basic Materials sector should benefit as well.

Most like to look at the EEM, emerging market index, but there is another emerging market index which trades with much more volume, VWO which I will use in this post. Lets start with just a simple daily line chart for VWO which shows a H&S bottom in place and a breakout yesterday of the blue bullish rising flag. Keep those two patterns in the back of your mind when we look at the longer term charts.


Below is a 5 year weekly bar chart which shows a double H&S bottom with the breakout of the blue bullish rising flag yesterday, which has formed just below the important overhead resistance zone. There are 2 things the blue bullish rising flag is suggesting, First these types of patterns form in strong moves and secondly it is forming just below important overhead resistance. We’ve studied this setup many times in the past which states, when you have a small consolidation pattern form just below important overhead resistance, it usually leads to a breakout. The small consolidation pattern builds up the energy needed for the final breakout move.

Now I would like to show you the long term weekly chart for the VWO so you can see the 6 year rectangle consolidation pattern that has been building out. Note how the blue bullish rising flag has formed just below that 6 year top rail of the rectangle consolidation pattern. If there was ever a place to see one of these types of bullish patterns buildout this is it.

As you can see on the weekly chart above the breakout hasn’t actually happened yet. Most chartists don’t like to use line charts, but they can be a very useful tool for the toolbox. Another lesson I’ve shown you in the past is how a line chart can often times signal a breakout before a bar chart. Keep in mind a line chart just uses the closing price whether it be a daily, weekly or monthly chart. Below is a monthly line chart which shows the breakout taking place. A backtest would come in around the 40.70 area on a monthly closing basis. The bottom line is that we want to see the price action close the month of July above the top rail.

This last chart for VWO is a 20 year look which shows its entire history. With this weeks move, the all important 4th reversal point was achieved when the top rail was hit which completes the trading range. It now becomes very important to see a strong breakout move higher leaving no doubt that the breakout is for real. A failure at the top rail would then start another reversal point to the downside which is not what we want to see.

If the breakout move continues then I would view the nearly 6 year trading range as a halfway pattern as shown by the blue arrows. I would expect we would see a similar impulse move up that began at the 2009 crash low up to the 2011 high in time and price. Big consolidation patterns lead to big moves.

Now lets take a look a daily chart for the XLB, basic materials index, which is showing it has just broken out 6 of a month blue expanding flat bottom triangle with a small H&S that formed as the backtest. Yesterday this basic materials index closed at a new all time high.

What are Basic Materials and what components are in the XLB ?

http://www.etfinvestmentoutlook.com/etf_holdings.php?s=XLB

Below is a 4 year weekly bar chart that is showing the breakout from the 6 point flat bottom triangle consolidation pattern into new all time highs this past week.

The long term monthly chart for the XLB shows its entire history and its bull market uptrend channel. If the 6 point expanding flat bottom triangle is breaking out topside then the original top rail of the major uptrend channel will be taken out. Generally when that happens you can see another equal channel higher giving the uptrend 3 equal channels instead of two. The black rectangles shows how this new uptrend may play out.

This next chart is a long term monthly chart for the XLF which I’ve been showing you how the lower channel may be morphing into a double uptrend channel with equal lower and upper channels. This is the same principle as the XLB chart above which is forming a possible third channel.

Below is a daily chart for the UYM, 2 X long the basic materials sector, which has just broken out from an almost 6 month expanding triangle consolidation pattern last Friday.

The long term monthly chart for the XLB shows a very similar setup to the long term chart we looked at earlier on the VWO, emerging markets etf. With the expanding triangle we just looked at on the daily chart above breaking out, then the price action should also breakout above the top rail of the 6 year bullish rising flag consolidation pattern.

This last chart for tonight is a weekly line chart which is showing the potential breakout underway. What the emerging markets and basic materials sectors are strongly suggesting is that there is a big move coming which has global implications for growth even if we can’t rationalize why at this point in time. We should see a very strong rally over the next 2 years or so equal to the rally out of the 2009 low to the 2011 high. Have a great weekend.

Rambus

https://goldtadise.com

© 2017 Copyright Rambus- All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Rambus Chartology Archive

© 2005-2017 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife