Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Best Cash ISA Savings Account for Soaring UK Inflation - February 2018 - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Gold Price Forecast 2018 - February Update - Nadeem_Walayat
3.Bitcoin Crypto Currencies Crash 2018, Are We Near the Bottom? - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Trump Bubble Bursts, Stock Market Panic Dow 1175 Point Crash Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold Corrects, Bitcoin Markets Crash, Whilst Stocks Plunge - Nadeem_Walayat
6.US Treasury Bonds: Fuse to Light the Bonfire - Jim_Willie_CB
7.Dow Falls 666 Points As Cryptocurrencies Crash And Krugman Emerges From His Van - Jeff_Berwick
8.Stock Market Roller Coaster Crash Ride Down to Dow Forecast 23,000 - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Trading the Shadows - Oil, Dollar, Stocks, Gold Trend Analysis - B.R. Hollister
10.Stock Market Analysis: Baying for Blood - Abalgorithm
Last 7 days
An Inflation Indicator to Watch, Part 1 - 18th Feb 18
Get on Top Of Debt Before It Gets on Top of You - 18th Feb 18
Will the Stock Market Make a Double Bottom? - 18th Feb 18
5 Reasons Why Commodities Are the Investment Place to be in 2018 - 18th Feb 18
1 Week Later, Stock, Bond Market Risk Remains ‘On’ as 2 of 3 Amigos Ride On - 17th Feb 18
Crude Oil Prices: A Case of Dueling Narratives? - 17th Feb 18
Free 1000 Youtube Subscribers Services - YTpals, Subpals, SubmeNow Test - 17th Feb 18
How to Trade as We Near March Stock Market Top - 16th Feb 18
Bitcoin as Poison - 16th Feb 18
GDX Gold ETF Weathers Stock Market Selloff - 16th Feb 18
Casino Statistics and Demographics - 16th Feb 18
IS Today Thee Stock Market Turn Day? - 16th Feb 18
Huge SMIGGLE Shopping HAUL, Pencil Cases, Drinks Bottles, Back Packs, Toys.... - 16th Feb 18
Tesla Cash Keeps Burning at $320 a Share - 15th Feb 18
Big Conflict Ahead in the Financial Markets - 15th Feb 18
Stocks Extend Rally Off Friday's Low, But Short-Term Exhaustion Near - 15th Feb 18
Stock Market Out on a Limb... - 15th Feb 18
Things Only a True Friend Would Say About Gold - 14th Feb 18
Global Debt Crisis II Cometh - 14th Feb 18
Understanding Crude Oil Behavior - 14th Feb 18
Stock Market is Getting Scary... - 14th Feb 18
Stock Market - This Time is Different. Really?! - 13th Feb 18
Gold and Silver Long-term Buy, Short-term Sell Signal - 13th Feb 18
SPX Futures Are Sliding... - 13th Feb 18
Stock Market Topping Process Begins. The Bubble Finds its Pin - 13th Feb 18
Math Behind the Stock Market Crash and What’s Next – PART2 - 13th Feb 18
Gold Stocks Groundhog Week - 13th Feb 18
Platinum Looks Poised for Surprising Gains This Year - 12th Feb 18
Friday's S&P 500 Stock Market Bounce To Continue, But Selling May Resume - 12th Feb 18
The Inflation Trade and Bond Yields Rising Result in Equities Correction - 12th Feb 18
February 2018 Stock Market Crisis – What Next? - 12th Feb 18
How To Profit From The Bitcoin Bloodbath - 12th Feb 18
The Philippine Economic Dream Could Be Within the Reach  - 12th Feb 18
Is the Stock Market Correction Over? - 12th Feb 18
What Does the Stock Market Decline Mean for Gold - 12th Feb 18
Addicted to SMIGGLE Mega Review, Pencil Cases, Stationary, Back Packs, Drinking Bottles, Toys... - 12th Feb 18
Best Cash ISA Savings Account for Soaring UK Inflation - February 2018 - 11th Feb 18
The Fed’s Impossible Choice, In Three Charts - 11th Feb 18
US Stock Market, Gold, Silver and the Macro Backdrop - 11th Feb 18
After Two weeks of Stock Market Decline, People Are Ssking, “Are We There Yet?” - 11th Feb 18
How to Grow Tomatoes From Seeds, Homegrown Organic Money Saving Gardening - 11th Feb 18
Youtube KILLS ALL Small Channels with New DeMonetization Rules - 11th Feb 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Urgent Stock Market Message

Will GBP/USD Decline under 1.3200 in Coming Week?

Currencies / British Pound Oct 04, 2017 - 02:46 PM GMT

By: Nadia_Simmons

Currencies

Yesterday, the greenback moved sharply higher against the British pound, which approached GBP/USD to the previously-broken August peaks. Will this support manage to stop currency bears in the coming days?


EUR/USD

Looking at the charts, we see that EUR/USD slipped slightly below the previously-broken 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (seen on the weekly chart) and the 23.6% retracement (based on the entire April-September upward move), which suggests that further deterioration is just around the corner.

If this is the case and the exchange rate extends losses, we’ll see a realization of the pro bearish scenario from our Forex Trading Alert posted on September 25 in the coming week:

(…) we clearly see a potential head and shoulders formation. Therefore, if EUR/USD declines under the neck line of the pattern (the blue support line based on the previous lows), we’ll see a downward move to around 1.1596, where the size of the move will correspond to the height of the formation.

However, when we take into account a drop under the lower border of the brown rising trend channel and the broader picture of EUR/USD, we think that currency bears push the exchange rate even lower – to around 1.1508, where the size of declines will be equal to the height of trend channel. Taking all the above into account, we believe that our (already profitable) short positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

GBP/USD

In our Forex Trading Alert posted on September 25, we asked (…) How low could the pair go?  In our opinion, if the exchange rate moves lower from current levels, we’ll see a drop to around 1.3266-1.3291, where the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement based on the August-September upward move and the August high are.

From today’s point of view, we see that the situation developed in line with the above scenario and GBP/USD dropped to our first downside target, making our short positions more profitable.

What’s next for the exchange rate? Although the pair slipped to the blue support zone, we should keep in mind that the pair closed yesterday’s session below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement based on the August-September upward move, which suggests further deterioration – especially when we factor in the fact that the sell signals generated by the weekly and daily indicators remain in cards, supporting currency bears.

Taking the above into account, we think that if the pair extends losses from current levels, we’ll see a test of the mid-September low of 1.3149 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement based on the August-September upward move (around 1.3115) in the coming days.

Nevertheless, looking at the weekly chart and considering an invalidation of the breakout above the upper border of the brown rising wedge, it seems that we could see GBP/USD even lower - around 1.3100, where the lower border of the above-mentioned formation currently is.

USD/JPY

Looking at the daily chart, we see that USD/JPY bounced off the red declining resistance line and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, invalidating the earlier small breakdowns. This positive development triggered further improvement, which resulted in an increase to the resistance area created by the 76.4% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracements in the previous week.

Since then the exchange rate is consolidating slightly below these levels, but taking into account the fact that the CCI canceled the sell signal and the Stochastic Oscillator generated a buy signal, we think that we’ll see one more upswing and a test of the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement (or even the July highs) in the coming days.

If you enjoyed the above analysis and would like to receive free follow-ups, we encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter – it’s free and if you don’t like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you’ll also get 7 days of free access to our premium daily Oil Trading Alerts as well as Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up now.

 

Nadia Simmons
Forex & Oil Trading Strategist
Przemyslaw Radomski
Founder, Editor-in-chief

Sunshine Profits: Gold & Silver, Forex, Bitcoin, Crude Oil & Stocks
Stay updated: sign up for our free mailing list today

* * * * *

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Nadia Simmons and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Nadia Simmons and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Nadia Simmons is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Nadia Simmons’ reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Nadia Simmons, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.


© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules