Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Market Decline Will Lead To Pension Collapse, USD Devaluation, And NWO - Raymond_Matison
2.Uber’s Nightmare Has Just Started - Stephen_McBride
3.Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - Brad_Gudgeon
4.GDow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold Significant Correction Has Started - Clive_Maund
6.British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - Richard_Mills
8.Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - Dan_Amerman
9.Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - Michael Ballanger
10.UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Canadian Cannabis Stocks CRASH as Canopy Growth Hits a Dead End - 14th Dec 19
Retail Sector Isn’t Dead, and These 6% Dividend Paying Stocks Prove It - 14th Dec 19
Top 5 Ways to Add Value to Your Home - 14th Dec 19
Beware Gold Stocks Downside - 13th Dec 19
Fed Says No Interest Rate Hikes In 2020. What About Gold? - 13th Dec 19
The ABC’s of Fiat Money - 13th Dec 19
Why Jo Swinson and the Lib Dems LOST Seats General Election 2019 - Sheffiled Hallam Result - 13th Dec 19
UK General Election 2019 BBC Exit Poll Forecast Accuracy Analysis - 12th Dec 19
Technical Analysis Update: Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) - Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA) - 12th Dec 19
Silver Miners Pinpoint the Precious Metals’ Outlook - 12th Dec 19
How Google Has Become the Worlds Biggest Travel Company - 12th Dec 19
UK Election Seats Forecasts - Tories 326, Labour 241, SNP 40, Lib Dems 17 - 12th Dec 19
UK General Election 2019 Final Seats Per Party Forecast - 12th Dec 19
What UK CPI, RPI INFLATION Forecasts for General Election Result 2019 - 11th Dec 19
Gold ETF Holdings Surge… But Do They Actually Hold Gold? - 11th Dec 19
Gold, Silver Reversals, Lower Prices and Our Precious Profits - 11th Dec 19
Opinion Pollsters, YouGov MRP General Election 2019 Result Seats Forecast - 11th Dec 19
UK General Election Tory and Labour Marginal Seats Analysis, Implied Forecast 2019 - 11th Dec 19
UK General Election 2019 - Tory Seats Forecast Based on GDP Growth - 11th Dec 19
YouGov's MRP Poll Final Tory Seats Forecast Revised Down From 359 to 338, Possibly Lower? - 10th Dec 19
What UK Economy (Average Earnings) Predicts for General Election Results 2019 - 10th Dec 19
Labour vs Tory Manifesto's UK General Election Parliamentary Seats Forecast 2019 - 10th Dec 19
Lumber is about to rally and how to play it with this ETF - 10th Dec 19
Social Mood and Leaders Impact on General Election Forecast 2019 - 9th Dec 19
Long-term Potential for Gold Remains Strong! - 9th Dec 19
Stock and Financial Markets Review - 9th Dec 19
Labour / Tory Manifesto's Impact on UK General Election Seats Forecast 2019 - 9th Dec 19
Tory Seats Forecast 2019 General Election Based on UK House Prices Momentum Analysis - 9th Dec 19
Top Tory Marginal Seats at Risk of Loss to Labour and Lib Dems - Election 2019 - 9th Dec 19
UK House Prices Momentum Tory Seats Forecast General Election 2019 - 8th Dec 19
Why Labour is Set to Lose Sheffield Seats at General Election 2019 - 8th Dec 19
Gold and Silver Opportunity Here Is As Good As It Gets - 8th Dec 19
High Yield Bond and Transports Signal Gold Buy Signal - 8th Dec 19
Gold & Silver Stocks Belie CoT Caution - 8th Dec 19
Will Labour Government Spending Bankrupt Britain? UK Debt and Deficits - 7th Dec 19
Lib Dem Fake Tory Election Leaflets - Sheffield Hallam General Election 2019 - 7th Dec 19
You Should Be Buying Gold Stocks Now - 6th Dec 19
The End of Apple Has Begun - 6th Dec 19
How Much Crude Oil Do You Unknowingly Eat? - 6th Dec 19
Labour vs Tory Manifesto Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election Forecast - 6th Dec 19
Gold Price Forecast – Has the Recovery Finished? - 6th Dec 19
Precious Metals Ratio Charts - 6th Dec 19
Climate Emergency vs Labour Tree Felling Councils Reality - Sheffield General Election 2019 - 6th Dec 19
What Fake UK Unemployment Statistics Predict for General Election Result 2019 - 6th Dec 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

UK General Election Forecast 2019

SPY : More Volatility to Come Due to the Market’s Nature

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019 Feb 11, 2019 - 07:22 AM GMT

By: ElliottWaveForecast

Stock-Markets

Our observations of the ETF, SPY, on the monthly chart have us expecting a spike in Volatility. The inherent bullish nature of the Market calls for advances (motive waves) as trends and pullback (corrective waves) as countertrend. To add to that nature, Elliott Wave Theory always suggests one of the 3 motive waves within an advance will be extended. The strongest advance is most often the 3rd wave. SPY has traced out a very strong move since lows of 2009. Due to that extension it’s hard to find technical support to call for another similar rally.

In the monthly chart of SPY below the early stages of the advance from 2009 show what can be an Elliott wave “nest” as labeled I-II in red, then ((1)) –((2)) in black. Nested labeling is quite common at the start of very powerful impulsive motive waves.


We have identified two characteristically similar paths for SPY going forward.

Path 1: The Index is still within the powerful wave (III) in blue.

Even though the chart shows the wave IV in red complete, we have yet to confirm with a subsequent new high. Therefore Wave IV in red could take various corrective forms. SPY could be in a double –three corrective structure if price action breaks below the December 2018 lows. So we must account for that possibility until we see new highs coupled with a hold of the December lows. This alternative scenario would push red wave IV lower than the current labeling. A third alternative is that of a triangle forming for the wave IV. Review the places where a triangle may form here. A result of the triangle path would suggest a minimum upside target to be the inverse 123.6% extension of wave IV. This measurement would take time to develop as we would need the confirmed completion of the triangle for a more precise measurement.

This continuation of wave (III) path is also supported by the idea that the 1.618 extension of wave (I) measured from the bottom of wave (II) has not yet been reached at 315.00. It is common to expect a wave (III) to end near that extension measurement. Another reason that supports this path is the idea that the Stochastic is “snaking” on the monthly chart. This is another common proprietary observation typical of a wave (III) still in progress. This is due to a third wave’s powerful momentum. Furthermore, the cycle from 2009 is holding the channel. The following picture is showing the Quarterly chart with the “snake” in clear in the stochastic indicator.

Path 2: The SPY ended the cycle and wave (III) in blue from the 2009 low.

This scenario would lead SPY to correct in a series of 3, 7, or 11 swings lower. Otherwise stated we would already be within the wave (IV) Blue. In this path it is critical that prices remain below the 2018 peak. In the near term path 2 would suggest not only a hold of last year’s peak but a turn back lower by the weeks of 2/13/2019-2/18/2019 or 2/25/2019-3/5/2019.This path simply suggest another leg lower before a turn back higher.

Path 2 is supported by the idea that stocks like $APPL and $FB have ended their largest degree cycles at their respective all-time highs. This view is very similar to the 2009 cycle. The correlation between both paths 1 and 2 suggest a third wave of some degree has already ended. The main evidence lies in the strength of the advance from 2009’s low. Time will tell which Path will manifest within the market going forward. No matter the path we will be ready for the volatility with the help of the Elliott Wave Theory. No matter how volatile the market gets the overall Right Side in 2019 will be to find and buy the coming dip.

By EWFEric

https://elliottwave-forecast.com

ElliottWave-Forecast has built its reputation on accurate technical analysis and a winning attitude. By successfully incorporating the Elliott Wave Theory with Market Correlation, Cycles, Proprietary Pivot System, we provide precise forecasts with up-to-date analysis for 52 instruments including Forex majors & crosses, Commodities and a number of Equity Indices from around the World. Our clients also have immediate access to our proprietary Actionable Trade Setups, Market Overview, 1 Hour, 4 Hour, Daily & Weekly Wave Counts. Weekend Webinar, Live Screen Sharing Sessions, Daily Technical Videos, Elliott Wave Setup .

Copyright © 2019 ElliottWave-Forecast - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules