Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market House Prices Bull Market Trend Current State - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Gold and Silver End of Week Technical, CoT and Fundamental Status - Gary_Tanashian
3.Stock Market Dow Trend Forecast - April Update - Nadeem_Walayat
4.When Will the Stock Market’s Rally Stop? - Troy_Bombardia
5.Russia and China Intend to Drain the West of Its Gold - MoneyMetals
6.BAIDU (BIDU) - Top 10 Artificial Intelligence Stocks Investing To Profit from AI Mega-trend - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Stop Feeding the Chinese Empire - ‘Belt and Road’ Trojan Horse - Richard_Mills
8.Stock Market US China Trade War Panic! Trend Forecast May 2019 Update - Nadeem_Walayat
9.US China Trade Impasse Threatens US Lithium, Rare Earth Imports - Richard_Mills
10.How to Invest in AI Stocks to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
The Euro Is Bidding Its Time: A Reversal at Hand? - 23rd May 19
Gold Demand Rose 7% in Q1 2019. A Launching Pad Higher for Gold? - 23rd May 19
Global Economic Tensions Translate Into Oil Price Volatility - 22nd May 19
The Coming Pension Crisis Is So Big That It’s a Problem for Everyone - 22nd May 19
Crude Oil, Hot Stocks, and Currencies – Markets III - 22nd May 19
The No.1 Energy Stock for 2019 - 22nd May 19
Brexit Party and Lib-Dems Pull Further Away from Labour and Tories in Latest Opinion Polls - 22nd May 19
The Deep State vs Donald Trump - US vs Them Part 2 - 21st May 19
Deep State & Financial Powers Worry about Alternative Currencies - 21st May 19
Gold’s Exciting Boredom - 21st May 19
Trade War Fears Again, Will Stocks Resume the Downtrend? - 21st May 19
Buffett Mistake Costs Him $4.3 Billion This Year—Here’s What Every Investor Can Learn from It - 21st May 19
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2019 May Update - Video - 20th May 19
A Brief History of Financial Entropy - 20th May 19
Gold, MMT, Fiat Money Inflation In France - 20th May 19
WAR - Us versus Them Narrative - 20th May 19
US - Iran War Safe-haven Reasons to Own Gold - 20th May 19
How long does Google have to reference a website? - 20th May 19
Tory Leadership Contest - Will Michael Gove Stab Boris Johnson in the Back Again? - 19th May 19
Stock Market Counter-trend Rally - 19th May 19
Will Stock Market “Sell in May, Go Away” Lead to a Correction… or a Crash? - 19th May 19
US vs. Global Stocks Sector Rotation – What Next? Part 1 - 19th May 19
BrExit Party EarthQuake Could Win it 150 MP's at Next UK General Election! - 18th May 19
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2019 May Update - 18th May 19
US Economy to Die a Traditional Death… Inflation Is Going to Move Higher - 18th May 19
Trump’s Trade War Is Good for These 3 Dividend Stocks - 18th May 19
GDX Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals Update - 17th May 19
Stock Markets Rally Hard – Is The Volatility Move Over? - 17th May 19
The Use of Technical Analysis for Forex Traders - 17th May 19
Brexit Party Set to Storm EU Parliament Elections - Seats Forecast - 17th May 19
Is the Trade War a Catalyst for Gold? - 17th May 19
This Is a Recession Indicator No One Is Talking About—and It’s Flashing Red - 17th May 19
War! Good or Bad for Stocks? - 17th May 19
How Many Seats Will Brexit Party Win - EU Parliament Elections Forecast 2019 - 16th May 19
It’s Not Technology but the Fed That Is Taking Away Jobs - 16th May 19
Learn to Protect your Forex Trading Capital - 16th May 19
Gold Ratio Charts Offer The Keys to the Bull Market - 16th May 19
Is Someone Secretly Smashing the Stock Market at Night? - 16th May 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

U.S. House Prices Analysis and Trend Forecast 2019 to 2021

Bailout Would Still Mean a Fragile US Economy

Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis Bailouts Sep 29, 2008 - 05:06 PM GMT

By: Paul_J_Nolte

Interest-Rates Pre NO Vote Commentary - Wall Street's hopes and prayers have been at least partially answered, as the leaders have agreed on a bill that will be introduced into the House this morning. $250 billion now, another $100 if necessary, then the final $350 would have to go through Congress. What is left out of the bill is some real assistance to the economy and actually opening the loan process. The removal of the bad loans does nothing to the balance sheets of ailing banks as the equity has already been written down; the mere buying just removes the asset and does not add any equity back into the bank.


Not surprisingly, the early line from Wall Street is rather muted. Back at the economy, the durable goods orders hit the skids, as the loan crunch is beginning to spill over into the “real” economy. Jobs are the next up on Friday and based upon all the layoffs already announced and done, we could see over 100,000 jobs lost in this report. The quarter will be ending on a weak note and if past is any prologue, October could be the month that actually kills the bear – but not before some scary trading that could push the markets lower still before the clouds part. October will also kick off the quarterly confessional with the beginning of earnings season. Should be interesting as the combination of a slow economy and tight lending could be deadly.

An interesting week in the markets to say the least, as both the NYSE and OTC markets suffered their worst week (in net decline terms) since early March. On the NYSE, it marked the fourth consecutive net losing week and in each week, the net number of decliners was more than the prior week. Many of our daily indicators are nearing buy territory, however the weekly data remains a ways away and has turned lower and recovering with the market recovery since July.

The markets could be setting up for a lower overall price, but better technical conditions that would serve as a “divergence” that gets market seers excited. If we look at the longer-term monthly data, it would point to an “ultimate” bottom sometime in the first or second quarter of next year – assuming that the current decline continues to unfold. As daylight hours begin to fall, anxiety grows. Any market rally that ensues from this point should be used to lighten equity holdings. While October can kill a bear, this one is merely celebrating its first birthday.

Bond investors should be excited about the bailout plan, but not that it will line your pockets with any new found wealth. While the bond model remains in buy territory, indicating yields should fall from here, the bailout package means that the Treasury will be issuing more bonds in the months ahead to shore up their very battered balance sheet – ultimately putting pressure on yields, forcing them higher as supply is likely to be well ahead of demand. Depending upon how the plan is being received – well and yields rise, poorly and yields decline. Longer term, we believe the economy will win out and with a still fragile economy (and likely poor economic data on Friday) we still believe rates are destined to go lower over the weeks ahead, even though they may rise initially on the bailout plan getting passed.

By Paul J. Nolte CFA
http://www.hinsdaleassociates.com
mailto:pnolte@hinsdaleassociates.com

Copyright © 2008 Paul J. Nolte - All Rights Reserved.
Paul J Nolte is Director of Investments at Hinsdale Associates of Hinsdale. His qualifications include : Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) , and a Member Investment Analyst Society of Chicago.

Disclaimer - The opinions expressed in the Investment Newsletter are those of the author and are based upon information that is believed to be accurate and reliable, but are opinions and do not constitute a guarantee of present or future financial market conditions.

Paul J. Nolte Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules