Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.The Greatest Stock Market Crash Of Your Life Is Just Ahead… – Warns Harry Dent - GoldCore
2.Budget 2016: Borrowing, Lifetime ISA, House Prices, Economy, Syria, Brexit and Stocks - Nadeem_Walayat
3.Gold Price Intermediate Top - Clive_Maund
4.Brussels Terror Attacks, Death of the European Union, BrExit Wake up Call - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Stock Market Maybe This Time is Different? - Tony_Caldaro
6.UK House Asking Prices Break Above £300k! Housing Market Paralysis - Nadeem_Walayat
7.A Big Reason Why Silver Price Is Set To Soar - Hubert_Moolman
8.The Financial Crisis Has Just Begun; Is The American Dream Is Over? - Chris_Vermeulen
9.Gold Stocks Spring Rally - Zeal_LLC
10.GLX, GLDX, Baby Gold Bull Market Stillborn? - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
Consensus Forming: China Heading Back Into Financial Crisis - 30th Apr 16
The Next Technical Price Targets for Gold & Silver - 30th Apr 16
Stock Market Downtrend Should be Underway - 30th Apr 16
Gold And Silver – A Clarion Alarm Call For All Paper Assets - 30th Apr 16
US Economic Statistics LIES, LIES AND OMG, MORE LIES - 30th Apr 16
Stock Market Strong Elliott Wave Relationship is Developing - 29th Apr 16
Fed's Kaplan: Brexit to Factor in US June Interest Rate Decision - 29th Apr 16
Silver Miners Strong in Grim Q4 - 29th Apr 16
Is Silver a better bet than Gold in the Near Future? - 29th Apr 16
How to Use the CoT Report in Gold Investing? - 29th Apr 16
Sri Lanka is Intriguing: Areas to Consider for Value Investing - 29th Apr 16
Gold “Chart of The Decade” – Maths Suggest $10,000 Per Ounce Says Rickards - 29th Apr 16
Are We or Are We Not in a New Gold Bull Market? - 29th Apr 16
Silver: The “Five Year Plan” and the Great Leap Forward - 28th Apr 16
Michael Hudson: The Wall Street Economy Has Taken Over The Economy and Is Draining It! - 28th Apr 16
AUD/USD - Trend Reversal or Just a Bigger Pullback? - 28th Apr 16
A Gold Revaluation Could Transform Your Financial Status - Overnight - 28th Apr 16
Monetary Policies Misunderstood - 28th Apr 16
Gold Bullion vs Gold Miners - 28th Apr 16
OECD Suggests BrExit Would Cut Net Migration by 1.2 Million by 2030 - 28th Apr 16
MP Naz Shah Punished for Tweets Made During Israel's Genocide of Gaza Palestinian People - 28th Apr 16
Global Recession in 2016 and Beyond - The Obvious Evidence - 27th Apr 16
Why Gold Bugs Need to Stop Listening to The Fear Mongers and Start Thinking for a Change - 27th Apr 16
BlackRock’s Fink: Fed to Raise Interest Rates by Quarter Point ‘at Best’ - 27th Apr 16
Gold More Productive Than Cash?! - 27th Apr 16
Donald Trump Will Fire Janet Yellen and Be Trapped - 27th Apr 16
Money Saving Gardening by Propagating Roses From Cuttings - Propagating Rose Plants Over 2.5 Years - 27th Apr 16
Facebook Censors Pro Trump and Negative Hillary News - 27th Apr 16
This is the Era of the Democrats and Your Taxes are Going Up - 27th Apr 16
Long Awaited Gold Price Breakout - 26th Apr 16
Crude Oil Price Double Top or Further Rally? - 26th Apr 16
Madness in the Crimex Gold and Silver Trading Pits - 26th Apr 16
Britain's Prospects: GBP and BREXIT - MAP Wave Analysis - 26th Apr 16
CRB, Gold, Oil, Cotton, Coffee - 7 Must See Commodities Charts - 26th Apr 16
Gold Price Target is $3,000 and Silver is $75 per Ounce - 25th Apr 16
Parameters for a Stock Market Sell Signal-in-the-making - 25th Apr 16
Stock Market Dangerous Divergence - 25th Apr 16
Gold Miners Nub is the Sweat of the Sun - 24th Apr 16
US Dollar Price Forecast - 24th Apr 16
Stock Market Upside Objective Reached - 24th Apr 16
Why Leftist Greeks have more reasons than Liberals to favour Entrepreneurship and Support Entrepreneurs - 24th Apr 16
The Dow Jones is a Catalyst for Misplaced Stock Market Optimism - 24th Apr 16
Why Russia Harasses U.S. Aircraft and Ships - 24th Apr 16
Stocks Bull or Bear Market Rally? - 23rd Apr 16
A Bright Future for Solar Power in the Middle East - 23rd Apr 16
Silver Commitments of Traders – Halloween is Arriving Early This Year - 23rd Apr 16
Good News, Bad News, Both Favor Gold And Silver - 23rd Apr 16
Mish's Sure Fire Proposal to End Japanese Deflation - 23rd Apr 16
Mish Shedlock: “EXCUSE ME MR. PRESIDENT, IS THAT A JOKE?” - 23rd Apr 16

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Catching a Falling Financial Knife

The Crumbling U.S. Economy, Worse is Yet to Come

Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010 Oct 19, 2008 - 06:48 PM GMT

By: Money_and_Markets

Economics

The Crumbling U.S. Economy, Worse is Yet to Come

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMike Larson writes: I invest prudently to help ensure the future financial well-being of my wife and two daughters. And Martin, who visited us recently, shares the same philosophy.

But when future history books are written on the twenty-first century, they will probably show that this time — right now — was the most dangerous for investors in decades.


Just look at what's happened in the last ten days.

We've seen the U.S. government throwing money at the credit crisis with wild abandon — cranking up the total cost and potential liability of fighting this disaster to more than $2.5 trillion.

We've seen endless “happy talk” from President George Bush, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, declaring that their latest schemes really will “end the credit crisis once and for all.”

But all their efforts are already backfiring: The fear of huge bond supplies to finance this folly is driving up interest rates on Treasury bonds. And as I showed you on Friday, that's sending mortgage rates through the roof, threatening to sabotage the entire bailout plan.

Meanwhile, nearly the entire economy is crumbling.

I wish I didn't have to sound so bearish. No one wants to see workers thrown out on the street, millions of Americans suffer through deep recession, or stocks fall out of bed. But the fundamentals at the heart of this crisis are not improving. To the contrary; they're signaling one of the worst Octobers on record.

Just take a look at last week's pile-up of dismal news announcements (along with my view on each) …

First , the National Association of Home Builders announced that October has been the cruelest month ever for the housing industry. The group's index, which measures home sales and buyer traffic, has just fallen to the worst levels in its 23-year history.

My view: A lasting recovery in construction activity, sales, and home prices remains many, many months away.

Second, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that 3.7 million Americans are now receiving unemployment benefits — the most in more than five years.

My view: The broad economy is behaving like the Titanic, and these job losses could be just the tip of the iceberg.

Third, U.S. industrial production cratered 2.8% in September — more than three times the decline that was expected and the single-worst reading in any month going back to 1974.

My view: This is the first hard data confirming what we've suspected all along — that this recession could be at least as bad as the 1974-75 recession, which was the deepest since the Great Depression.

Fourth, housing starts plunged a staggering 6.3% in September. Worse, applications for construction permits — a solid indication of how housing starts will fare this month — crashed 8.3%. Single-family home construction is now running at levels we haven't seen in 26 years!

My view: The housing market is still on the ropes. Commercial real estate is getting killed. Lenders are shutting down their operations. The only good news is that home prices are falling so far so fast, there is now some hope that homes will be affordable again in the not-too-distant future.

Fifth, consumer confidence just suffered its steepest monthly drop in history. The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said its confidence index plummeted from 70.3 all the way down to 57.5 in one fell swoop.

My view: This is frightening. But it should come as no surprise to our readers: It goes hand in hand with the “blackest of Black Octobers” that I warned you about last month.

Ignore the Washington and Wall Street Spin.
These Powerful Economic Forces Are Screaming,
“THE WORST IS STILL AHEAD!”

As long as the forces that drive the economy and the stock market continue to fall so steeply and deeply, almost any stock you own or buy now is a potential time-bomb that can sink your portfolio.

There are exceptions, of course. And if you or your money manager know how to hedge against downside risk, that's another alternative.

But I will repeat what I said at the outset: This is a dangerous time for investors. So my recommendations are as follows:

  • Ignore the spin coming from on high. It's just noise. It won't make a bit of difference.
  • Don't be fooled by rallies in the stock market. They're little more than mirages based on fantasy. The bigger they are the better the selling opportunity.
  • If you want to protect your family as much as I want to protect mine, you'll get your money to safety. The more the better.

Until next time,

Mike

This investment news is brought to you by Money and Markets . Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Dr. Weiss is a leader in the fields of investing, interest rates, financial safety and economic forecasting. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com .

Money and Markets Archive

© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife