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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: Global Economy

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Economics

Saturday, September 15, 2018

Trading The Global Future - Bad Consequences / Economics / Global Economy

By: Dan_Steinbock

The Trump administration’s ‘America First’ policies come at a critical time in the global economy. These bad policies will have adverse consequences in international trade. In the absence of countervailing forces, they could unsettle the post-2008 global recovery and undermine postwar globalization.

This summer, the Trump administration’s tariff war penalized $50 billion worth of goods traded between the US and China.

The next stage of White House escalation will impact up to $200 billion of Chinese imports, and result in proportionate Chinese retaliation.

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Economics

Monday, September 10, 2018

U-Turn or Perfect Storm? Globalization a Decade after the Financial Crisis / Economics / Global Economy

By: Dan_Steinbock

A decade ago, globalization peaked. Today, it remains in the doldrums.  Consequently, the Trump trade wars take place at a historical moment, when globalization may further stagnate or even fall apart.

On Friday September 7, President Donald Trump threatened to impose tariffs on $267 billion in Chinese goods, on top of the additional $200 billion that he said will likely be hit with import taxes in a matter of days.

If the tariff stakes would increase close to $500 billion, it could penalize Chinese GDP by 1.0%, but the US GDP, which is relatively more vulnerable, would suffer a net impact of 2.0% of GDP.

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Economics

Monday, August 06, 2018

Restructuring of Western Economic Power / Economics / Global Economy

By: Dan_Steinbock

According to BRIC projections, the economic power of the BRICs is on the rise. But the other side of the coin is equally interesting. Among the G6 countries, US economic power is increasing at the expense of Europe and Japan.

Recently, the 10th BRICS Summit took place in Johannesburg, South Asia. As the international focus has been on the BRIC prospects in the future, it is often forgotten that when the first BRIC reports were published in the early 2000s, they also featured projections about the likely growth of major advanced economies.

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Politics

Friday, June 08, 2018

Advanced World’s Reality: G6 Summit Minus G1  / Politics / Global Economy

By: Dan_Steinbock

The G7 Summit is split between the United States and six other major advanced economies. President Trump’s unipolar economic and strategic doctrines are undermining US alliances, world trade – and America itself.

Recently, the Trump administration’s officials marked its 500 days with a chorus of tweets. “Many believe I’ve accomplished more than any other president,” Trump said. When he arrived in the office, markets had enjoyed an unsustainable boom, as corporate America expected the president to fulfill his pledges of radical liberalization, privatization and deregulation.

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Economics

Monday, May 07, 2018

Global Synchronized Economic Slowdown / Economics / Global Economy

By: Michael_Pento

Not too long ago the overwhelming consensus from the perennial Wall Street Carnival Barkers was that investors were enjoying a global growth renaissance that would last for as far as the eye can see. Unfortunately, it didn’t take much time to de-bunk that fairy tale. After a lackluster start to 2018, the market's expectations for global growth for the remainder of this year is now waning with each tick higher in bond yields.

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Politics

Saturday, December 09, 2017

China’s Struggle for Market Economy Status / Politics / Global Economy

By: Dan_Steinbock

Recently, the Trump administration joined the EU and rejected the view that under the WTO terms China should have graduated last year to market-economy status. Now Trump is using Obama’s accession legacy to undermine world trade.

The accession debacle intensified a year ago, when then president-elect Trump stated categorically in Iowa that “China is not a market economy.”

In the prior months, Trump had pledged to beat back the Trans-Pacific Partnership TPP (which he buried on his inaugural day), undo the North-American Free Trade Agreement NAFTA (whose fifth round of talks ended recently in simmering friction), and impose huge tariffs on China and rewrite the rules of world trade - in which the accession mess could prove a milestone.

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Economics

Friday, November 10, 2017

US-China Trade at Global Crossroads / Economics / Global Economy

By: Dan_Steinbock

Despite “America First” policies, President Trump’s economic agenda needs expanding trade with China.

President Donald Trump began his grueling 12-day Asia tour amid US Special Counsel’s first indictments, which cast a shadow over the White House’s future.

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Economics

Wednesday, September 06, 2017

The Great Shift of Global Economic Power / Economics / Global Economy

By: Dan_Steinbock

BRIC economies continue to grow. In the late 2020s, the size of China’s economy will surpass that of the US. By the early 2030s, the BRICs’ combined economic power will surpass that of major advanced nations.

The BRICS Summit in Xiamen, Fujian province, signals the rising might of the large emerging economies, such as China, India, Russia, and Brazil. South Africa does not fulfill the criteria of a true BRIC economy - large population, strong growth record and catch-up potential - but it has historically played a key role in African governance.

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Politics

Sunday, August 20, 2017

The Peak of Globalization and The Reason Trump Won / Politics / Global Economy

By: Harry_Dent

Fareed Zakaria just put out a special show on why Trump won: He got the rural white vote in unprecedented margins – like 80% plus. Even before Election Day, we put out an infographic explaining why Trump could win despite the polls. Still, even I was a little surprised when he won!

I bring this up again now, not to bash Trump, but to highlight the demographic and cyclical explanation behind his victory. And to show that the events that brought Trump into power aren’t done stirring things up. There’s a lot more to come. Trump is only the beginning…
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Politics

Friday, August 18, 2017

The World May Soon Split in Two Trading Blocs—Here’s How to Position Your Portfolio / Politics / Global Economy

By: John_Mauldin

BY PATRICK WATSON : What do freight trains, oil supertankers, and the Trump administration’s trade plans have in common? Once they get going, they’re pretty much unstoppable.

Trump wants to punish nations he thinks treat US companies unfairly. And China is first on his list.

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Politics

Friday, July 14, 2017

Trump’s Trade Policies Are Provoking A Global Trade War— How to Hedge Your Portfolio / Politics / Global Economy

By: John_Mauldin

BY PATRICK WATSON :Removing barriers to international trade has both upside and downside. Donald Trump is now president in part because he focused on the downside: lost US jobs, closed factories, blighted communities.

Even more important, he's fundamentally changing the way government looks at trade policy.

Trade negotiations have long had the implicit goal of promoting peace. It’s a fact that nations with active business relationships rarely attack each other, though the security aspect used to stay mostly unspoken.

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Politics

Thursday, July 06, 2017

Here’s Why This G20 Meeting Doesn’t Really Matter / Politics / Global Economy

By: John_Mauldin

BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : Anyone who has ever been to a meeting knows that meetings are often confounding, frustrating affairs. Most of them are designed simply to be held. The people who attend them are unlikely to agree on anything except maybe the date of the next one.

The G-20 summit is no exception.

But that’s only because the people who attend it, the leaders of the countries with the world’s 20 largest economies, think of themselves as decision-makers when really they are hostages to history.

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Economics

Monday, July 03, 2017

Are Advanced Economies Ready for Recovery, Really? / Economics / Global Economy

By: Dan_Steinbock

Or Global Reflation As China Begins Tightening
Until recently, the conventional wisdom was that China’s contribution to global reflation would be increasingly accompanied by those of the US and Europe. Yet, the realities may look grimmer than anticipated.

Usually, the term ‘reflation’ is used to describe the first phase of economic recovery after a period of contraction. More recently, ‘global reflation’ has been deployed to refer to the post-crisis past decade, which has been characterized by lingering recovery from the global crisis, despite ultra-low rates and quantitative easing.

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Economics

Sunday, July 02, 2017

The China-EU-US-Triangle Déjà Vu / Economics / Global Economy

By: Dan_Steinbock

The new rapprochement between Brussels and Beijing involves converging economic interests between Europe and China – and diverging strategic interests between Europe and America.

A day after the terror attacks of September 11, 2001, Le Monde declared that “we are all Americans.” But the honeymoon of shared suffering ended quickly when US military revenge raged across Afghanistan, Iraq, and elsewhere. Instead, a deep and broad transatlantic rift emerged, thanks to bitter disagreements about President Bush’s foreign policy revolution.

Today, many feel an odd sense of déjà vu.
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Economics

Saturday, June 17, 2017

Here’s The Case For An Upside Risk In The Global Economy / Economics / Global Economy

By: John_Mauldin

One of the true riddles in the economic world today is a steady drop in total global productivity over the last few decades. That’s in spite of the growing use of computers, robotics, and artificial intelligence.

In theory, productivity should have gone up, but it didn’t.

Professor and Nobel laureate Robert Gordon and others have foreseen that the GDP growth will decline to less than 1%, and they have all sorts of data to back up their claim.

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Economics

Thursday, May 25, 2017

5 Trends That Will Shape the Next Decade / Economics / Global Economy

By: John_Mauldin

In a typically ebullient presentation at Mauldin Economics’ 2017 Strategic Investment Conference on Tuesday, author, analyst, and trend-spotter Pippa Malmgren laid out key trends set to shape the early part of the 21st century.

Overall, the future is bright enough to need shades but also sunblock, according to Malmgren. The key thing we need is situational awareness. “Nobody saw the financial crisis, Brexit, or Trump coming,” she said. “I did. Not because I’m smarter than anyone else, but because people insist on looking at the world through a mathematical lens. This is a terrible mistake.”

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Economics

Wednesday, April 12, 2017

Map Shows 16 Countries Will Be Hit Hard By The Global Exporters’ Crisis / Economics / Global Economy

By: John_Mauldin

The world is currently in the midst of an exporters' crisis. The stagnation in global consumption levels and decline of commodity prices have led to increased instability and insecurity in countries heavily dependent on exports.

The origins of the exporters’ crisis lie in the economic recessions that the United States and Europe experienced due to the 2008 financial crash. These countries were major consumers of Chinese goods, notably low-cost manufactured products.

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Economics

Wednesday, March 29, 2017

The Last G-20 Meeting Marks the End of Free Trade / Economics / Global Economy

By: John_Mauldin

BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : In the last G-20 meeting, its members agreed to drop the forum’s commitment to free trade at the insistence of the United States. That agreement was reached at one meeting and was contained in a single document—such agreements and documents are far from written in stone.

In spite of that, it must be regarded as a historical moment. Excluding the free trade commitment from the agreement marks a fundamental shift in a concept that has been central to global economics for more than a generation.

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Economics

Friday, March 17, 2017

Preserving Order Amid Change in NAFTA, U.S. Sovereignty v. WTO / Economics / Global Economy

By: STRATFOR

By Reva Goujon and Matthew Bey : It took more than a decade and three presidencies, from Ronald Reagan to Bill Clinton, to conceive and craft the North American Free Trade Agreement. Will a single presidency manage to undo the process of North American integration? While the risk is real, the reality may be less dramatic.

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Economics

Monday, March 06, 2017

Trump's Disruptive Approach to Trade / Economics / Global Economy

By: STRATFOR

A shift in U.S. trade policy that follows the outline presented today to Congress would upend the foundations of global trade as it is currently conducted. The biggest change in the approach that the administration of President Donald Trump may take is its assertion that U.S. sovereignty in trade disputes could empower it to supersede rulings made by the World Trade Organization (WTO).

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