Category: Stock Markets 2016
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Tuesday, December 20, 2016
Stock Market Doesn't Look Right... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX emerged under the trendline again, after another rally attempt. The reason I am discussing this is that the next three days in a row have the potential for a large decline. No promises, just the potential. Technically we should be under the lower channel trendline to get a confirmed sell signal. The problem is, the potential for a panic decline right off the top is very high…and this may be the first time in market history for this to happen.
Monday, December 19, 2016
SPX may be hit by a double whammy / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
While the SPX Premarket is slightly positive it has a cluster of Primary Cycle turns starting last Friday and lasting through this week that suggest something remarkable may happen. Friday morning was the terminus of an irregular (truncated) Wave (c) correction. The decline afterwards wasn’t very deep, but enough to cross beneath the trading channel trendline and become trapped beneath it at the close,
Monday, December 19, 2016
Stock Market More Short-Term Fluctuations Along Record Highs - Which Direction Is Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Paul_Rejczak
Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,330, and profit target at 2,150, S&P 500 index).
Our intraday outlook remains bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral
Sunday, December 18, 2016
Stock Market Consolidation? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: If the market strength persists, the long-term trend may need to be re-evaluated.
SPX Intermediate trend: SPX intermediate P&F count to 2270 has now been met, but there are higher counts that could still be filled before a serious reversal take place.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily-basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
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Sunday, December 18, 2016
Santa Claus to Extend Trump Stock Market Rally? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Brad_Gudgeon
In this article, I’m going to point to reasons why I believe this rally has some more juice left in it. I also want to warn that early next year, what I thought would happen in November 2016 should happen in March/April 2017, and that is a 14+% drop.
The Trump phenomenon seems to have caused the normal cycles to misbehave and extend. After further examination into Primary Wave 4, I have come to the conclusion that I need to revise the timing of the final Millennial Wave top out to a possible 3 years (that IF is Intermediate Wave Z of Primary Wave 4 extends out to the end of 2018 instead of year end 2017).
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Saturday, December 17, 2016
Stock Market Flirts With Dow 20k New All Time High / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Dow flirted with 20k this week, hitting a high of 19,966, literally within a few points of claiming the historic 20k level along its relentless bull market path. If one looks back to not just the start of 2016, but, well right up until AFTER the US polls closed on November 8th and beyond then its not just a case of Dow 20k could never happen but that the Dow 'should' by now be trading at well BELOW 15k. Whilst a few of the perma crowd had completely flipped imagining the Dow could trade down to as low as 6k! I suppose that's where the Dow needs to trade for some guys and gals just to BREAKEVEN after year after year of beartish rhetoric.
Friday, December 16, 2016
The Stock Market Level To Watch / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Dana Lyons (Tumblr.com) makes an interesting observation about a little-known index known as the Value Line Geometric Composite Index. In his article, he draws a straight line (red) at 500.00. and says. “This far and no further.”
He misses several points, which I would like to address. First, by drawing a horizontal bar, he misses the fact that the XVG was 27 points under it in 2000 and 23 points above it in 2015. By drawing a line that is peak-to-peak, you get a different picture. In fact, what comes to mind is an Orthodox Broadening Top (I added the lower trendline to complete the formation). This is a slight variation of what you see in the DJIA and SPX.
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Friday, December 16, 2016
Trump Rally and Irrelevant Dow Theory; What’s Next Stock Market Crash / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Sol_Palha
Uncertainty and mystery are energies of life. Don't let them scare you unduly, for they keep boredom at bay and spark creativity. R. I. Fitzhenry
In September we penned a second article in the Alternative Dow theory series, titled “Dow theory no longer relevant-Better Alternative exists where we stated that the Dow theory as it stood was no longer relevant. Here is a brief excerpt from that article.
The transports topped out in November of 2014, and according to the Dow theory this is a big negative; the Dow industrials should have followed suit. Instead, the Dow soared higher paying no heed to this theory proving to a large degree that this theory has lost its value. After all, it is a theory and the definition of a theory is “a supposition or a system of ideas intended to explain something, especially one based on general principles independent of the thing to be explained.”
Friday, December 16, 2016
Gold & Miners Bottoming Signs / Commodities / Stock Markets 2016
By: Gary_Savage
A couple of months from now are traders going to look back and wonder how they could have ignored the bottoming signs?
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Friday, December 16, 2016
Will Stock Market VIX Spike Today? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Good Morning!
The SPX Premarket is up, as would be expected for the close of index options at today’s open. Volatility may spike at the open as options traders settle their trades. What happens after the institutions leave the scene?
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Friday, December 16, 2016
How Trump Could Blow Up The Entire Stocks Bull Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: John_Mauldin
At first glance, strictly from the point of view of the short-term impact they will have on the markets, what's not to like about the Trump/Ryan/Republican tax proposals?
Trump is proposing a top corporate tax rate of 15% , and the Ryan plan essentially calls for 20%. The proposed corporate tax reduction will really have a far greater impact than any of the proposed personal income tax cuts.
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Thursday, December 15, 2016
Stock Market Sell Signals Being Generated / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX has exceeded the trendline, as anticipated. It may find max resistance at or near 2266.00, the 61.8% Fib retracement.
The next decline may fall between 60 and 100 points, challenging the Wave [iv] low or possibly the 50-day Moving Average. If so, the decline may slip into high gear.
This may be an ideal aggressive short entry.
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Thursday, December 15, 2016
SPX to Mop up Wave 2 Retracement / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The SPX Premarket is lower, but hasn’t broken yesterday’s low as I write. That leaves the possibility of a second go at the trendline at the open.
ZeroHedge reports, “This morning the world awakes to a landscape in which markets are frantically rushing to catch up to a suddenly hawkish Fed which not only hiked for the second time in a decade but, as per yesterday's Fed statement and Yellen press conference, realized it has been behind the curve all along, and the result has been a spike in the dollar across virtually all currency pairs with the USDJPY surging above 118.40, coupled with a jump in bond yields around the globe as bond (the US 10 Year is trading at 2.64%, the highest since September 2014) as traders dump any hint of duration.”
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Thursday, December 15, 2016
Stock Market New Downtrend Or Just Quick Downward Correction Before Another Leg Up? / / Stock Markets 2016
By: Paul_Rejczak
Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,330, and profit target at 2,150, S&P 500 index).
Our intraday outlook remains bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral
Wednesday, December 14, 2016
Stock Market Orthodox Broadening Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX is clearly under its Orthodox Broadening Top trendline this morning. This is the first step and may be considered an aggressive sell signal (with stops).
Wednesday, December 14, 2016
Stock Market Exciting Day Ahead / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX nearly maxed out yesterday as it approached 2285.92, which is the limit of this wave structure. That’s not to say that it absolutely cannot change its form again. However, we’ll address that issue if it comes. Right now, it is overdue for a decline and a measure of the decline will tell us what may come after.
The Premarket is modestly down. There may not be a lot of activity until after the FOMC announcement at 2:00 pm.
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Wednesday, December 14, 2016
Stock Market Very Strong Session Despite Profit-Taking / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Harry_Boxer
The stock market indices had very nice big gains until the last few minutes when they sold off, especially on the Nasdaq 100, which gave up about 25 points off its big gains today, still finishing up at 4935, with a good trade and double top around 4960 by midsession, before the late pullback.
Net on the day, the Dow was up 114.78 at 19,911.21, a new all-time at 19,953. The S&P 500 was up 14.76 at 2271.72. The Nasdaq 100 was up 61.54 at 4935.82.
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Tuesday, December 13, 2016
Stock Market Waiting for the FOMC? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Good Morning!
The SPX Premarket is higher, but the futures have not made a new high. Yesterday’s decline may be impulsive, but the test is whether a new high is made today or not. In addition, the Wave structure appears to be complete as of yesterday morning. We may see some residual bullishness at the open, but the jury is still pondering the verdict as of now.
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Tuesday, December 13, 2016
Nasdaq Leads Stock Market Lower... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Jack_Steiman
The market bulls are still in control of things, but we all know that there is this one gigantic red flag out there that will come into play at some point. The thing is, we don't know when that will happen, because there is no formula to tell us when it's coming, since every bull market is different. We can look back at history as a guide, but when folks do, it doesn't usually work out very well. The reason is simple. Nothing repeats perfectly, even though we'd like to believe it does. For instance, over the past year-plus we saw 35% on the bull/bear spread start a correction, but we also saw 46% start one.
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Monday, December 12, 2016
Stock Market Top?, Sucker’s Play / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Brad_Gudgeon
The current rally from November 4 to December 12 (if indeed it was the top) was Minuette Wave Y of Minute Y. Minute Wave Y (of Minor Wave B) was a wxy inverted, irregular and strong bearish flat. Elliott called these B waves or irregular tops. The Trump rally is basically a "sucker's play". The internals of this rally are sick and very selective; the McClellan Summation Index is miles away from confirming it; the Dow Jones Industrials has far exceeded the SPX, which has far exceeded the NASDAQ creating a case of an inter-market bearish divergence. We also have a huge On-Balance-Volume divergence.
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