Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Climate Change Mass Extinction - Birds, Bees and Bugs: Going Going Gone - Richard_Mills
2.A Purrrfect Gold Price Setup! - Peter_Degraaf
3.Who Finances America's Borrowing? Recession Indicator for Independent Thinkers Part 2 - F_F_Wiley
4.America’s One-sided Domestic Financial War - Raymond_Matison
5.Gold Price Summer Doldrums - Zeal_LLC
6.Two Key Events Will Unleash Gold - Jim_Willie_CB
7.Billionaire Schools Teacher in NAFTA Trade Talks - Richard_Mills
8.Get Out Of Crypto Cannabis Bubble Before It Pops and Move Into Bargain Basement Miners - Jeb_Handwerger
9.Stock Market Could Pullback for 1-2 weeks, But Medium Term Bullish - Troy_Bombardia
10.G7 Chaos, Central Banks and US Fed Will Drive Stock Prices This Week - Chris_Vermeulen
Last 7 days
Soybean Price Hits 9 Year Low Due to Trade War - 24th Jun 18
Small Cap Stocks, Technology and Pharma To Drive A Renewed Market Rally - 24th Jun 18
Gerald Celente: Why You Still Need Guns, Gold, and a Getaway Plan... - 23rd Jun 18
Cheap Gold Stocks Bottom Basing - 23rd Jun 18
A Trade War Won’t Be Good for the US Dollar - 23rd Jun 18
SPX/Gold, Long-term Yields & Yield Curve 3 Amigos Update - 22nd Jun 18
Gold - How Long Can This Last? - 22nd Jun 18
Dow Has Fallen 8 days in a Row. Medium-long Term Bullish for Stocks - 22nd Jun 18
Trouble Spotting Market Trends? This Can Help - 22nd Jun 18
Financial Markets Analysis and Trend Forecasts 2018 - A Message from Nadeem Walayat - 21st Jun 18
SPX Bouncing Above Support - 21st Jun 18
Things You Need To Know If You Want To Invest In Bitcoin Now - 21st Jun 18
The NASDAQ’s Outperformance vs. the Dow is Very Bullish - 21st Jun 18
Warning All Investors: Global Stock Market Are Shifting Away From US Price Correlation - 20th Jun 18
Gold GLD ETF Update… Breakdown ? - 20th Jun 18
Short-term Turnaround in Bitcoin Might Not Be What You Think - 19th Jun 18
Stock Market’s Short Term Downside Will be Limited - 19th Jun 18
Natural Gas Setup for 32% Move in UGAZ Fund - 19th Jun 18
Magnus Collective To Empower Automation And Artificial Intelligence - 19th Jun 18
Trump A Bull in a China Shop - 19th Jun 18
Minor Car Accident! What Happens After You Report Your Accident to Your Insurer - 19th Jun 18
US Majors Flush Out A Major Pivot Low and What’s Next - 18th Jun 18
Cocoa Commodities Trading Analysis - 18th Jun 18
Stock Market Consolidating in an Uptrend - 18th Jun 18
Russell Has Gone Up 7 Weeks in a Row. EXTREMELY Bullish for Stocks - 18th Jun 18
What Happens Next to Stocks when Tech Massively Outperforms Utilities and Consumer Staples - 18th Jun 18
The Trillion Dollar Market You’ve Never Heard Of - 18th Jun 18
The Corruption of Capitalism - 17th Jun 18
North Korea, Trade Wars, Precious Metals and Bitcoin - 17th Jun 18
Climate Change and Fish Stocks – Burning Oxygen! - 17th Jun 18
A $1,180 Ticket to NEW Trading Opportunities, FREE! - 16th Jun 18
Gold Bullish on Fed Interest Rate Hike - 16th Jun 18
Respite for Bitcoin Traders Might Be Deceptive - 16th Jun 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

5 "Tells" that the Stock Markets Are About to Reverse

Stock Market Flirts With Dow 20k New All Time High

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016 Dec 17, 2016 - 06:37 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock-Markets

The Dow flirted with 20k this week, hitting a high of 19,966, literally within a few points of claiming the historic 20k level along its relentless bull market path. If one looks back to not just the start of 2016, but, well right up until AFTER the US polls closed on November 8th and beyond then its not just a case of Dow 20k could never happen but that the Dow 'should' by now be trading at well BELOW 15k. Whilst a few of the perma crowd had completely flipped imagining the Dow could trade down to as low as 6k! I suppose that's where the Dow needs to trade for some guys and gals just to BREAKEVEN after year after year of beartish rhetoric.


Whilst my consistent view all year is that the Dow would trade to a series of new highs during the second half of 2016 and that ultimately the Dow targeted a trend to 20k, which my analysis of 14th November concluded could occur BEFORE the end of this year!

See my series of videos for taste of this years analysis and with more plenty articles in my articles archive (http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/UserInfo-Nadeem_Walayat.html).

26th Jan 2016 - Dow 16,093

2nd March 2016 - Dow 16,685

17th May 2016 - Dow 17,710

Stock Market - Crude Oiil Forecast

7th August 2016 - Dow 18,500

19 Nov 2016 - Dow 18,905 - Trump Delirium Triggers Stock Market Brexit Upwards Crash Towards Dow 20,000!

Now I know you all want me to promptly trundle out my forecast conclusion for the Dow for 2017. However, I think now is good time to remind my readers and viewers of my videos that my forecast conclusions are the SUM of ALL of analysis. If I just relied on technical analysis then honestly I would likely only be marginally more accurate than most of the other newsletter and trading service peddlers out there. Which is why I don't pander to a subscriber base because I know, I KNOW TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IS A RED HERRING! Look TA is highly convincing, highly seductive but on its own its not going to let one arrive at that which is the most probable! As its highly subjective! Its very, very easy to make TA fit a point of view even if you try hard not to do that!

So I don't approach forecasts from TA, rather that tends to the the LAST step. So there are 3 key elements to arriving at that which is most probable which I have often voiced, especially when I've gone off on the deep end on one of my tangents for as far that train of thought takes me down whilst readers prompt me that they want a forecast of where the Dow or, x,yz is likely to go.

1. The Mega-trends. If I don't understand the mega-trends then I may as well just play pin the tail on the donkey for no matter how good my technical analysis is it won't be better than a coin toss. Which is why I obsesses over the mega-trends such as inflation, debt, machine intelligence, climate change, geopolitics etc...

2. Put My Money Where My Mouth is - To arrive at a probable conclusion I need to actually want to seek to commit my own funds to that market at the outset. If I do analysis on a market where I never intended to invest then unless it is a very related market i.e. precious metals, or different country stock markets then I am not going to have that extra edge, that extra incentive to really, really want to know.

3. Technical Analysis - This is my LAST analysis step, I don't even want to think about the charts until I have worked through the above steps, and since I don't pander to a paid subscriber base I do tend to go silent on markets from time to time until I see an unfolding opportunity to profit from. Now again, unlike the vast majority of analysts out there, I am SKEPTICAL OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS! There is NO Black Box, Proprietary indicators or holy grail that works! Those that tell you such are bullshitting you! Technical analysis is just that a skill at using technical tools, like driving a car is a technical skill, however without knowing where your going, then your just going to get lost! Which is what apparently happens to most analysts, they get lost in technical analysis! yes it all looks and sounds very convincing but they could have saved themselves a hell of a lot of time by just flipping a coin! I should know I have tested it! A coin toss vs technical analysis result in similar outcomes and that's for someone who deem themselves as being very experienced at TA! So you can well understand why most analysts fail to even beat a coin toss !

So in advance of my Dow stock market forecast for 2017, I will once more be meandering down a mega-trend lane. Trumps Coming War on China. Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter to get this mega-trend analysis shortly in your email in box as well as the stock and other market detailed trend analysis that will follow it.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2016 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

mydan
17 Dec 16, 16:58
Thank you

Thank you so much for sharing your thoughts on analysis of the markets. . You are one of the top and most accurate forecasters in the World Wide Web

Daniel


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules