Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Five Charts That Show We Are on the Brink of an Unthinkable Financial Crisis- John_Mauldin
2.Bitcoin Parabolic Mania - Zeal_LLC
3.Bitcoin Doesn’t Exist – 2 - Raul_I_Meijer
4.Best Time / Month of Year to BUY a USED Car is DECEMBER, UK Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Labour Sheffield City Council Election Panic Could Prompt Suspension of Tree Felling's Private Security - N_Walayat
6.War on Gold Intensifies: It Betrays the Elitists’ Panic and Augurs Their Coming Defeat Part2 - Stewart_Dougherty
7.How High Will Gold Go? - Harry_Dent
8.Bitcoin Doesn’t Exist – Forks and Mad Max - Raul_I_Meijer
9.UK Stagflation Risk As Inflation Hits 3.1% and House Prices Fall - GoldCore
10.New EU Rules For Cross-Border Cash, Gold Bullion Movements - GoldCore
Last 7 days
Why Banks Will Be Slammed In The Next Crisis—And That May Be Good News - 23rd Jan 18
Medicare Premiums Are A Shared Pool - Coming Changes That Will Transform Retirement - 23rd Jan 18
Charged Atmosphere of Heavy Police and Security Presence at Sheffield Street Tree Felling Protests - 23rd Jan 18
Pension Crisis And Deficit of £2.6 Billion At Carillion To Impact UK - 22nd Jan 18
Two Factors for Gold That You Don’t Want to Miss - 22nd Jan 18
Why You Must Own Silver in 2018 - 22nd Jan 18
This Could Be The Hottest Mining Stock Of 2018 - 22nd Jan 18
Stock Index Trend Trade Setups for the SP500 & NASDAQ - 22nd Jan 18
Stock Market Deceleration / Distribution - 22nd Jan 18
US Markets vs Govt Shutdown: Stock Markets at all time highs - 22nd Jan 18
Land Rover Discovery Sport - 1 Month Driving Test Review - 22nd Jan 18
Why should you use high-quality YouTube to mp3 converter? - 22nd Jan 18
Silver As Strategic Metal: Why Its Price Will Soar - 21st Jan 18
Stocks, Gold and Interest Rates Three Amigos Ride On - 21st Jan 18
Why Sometimes, "Beating the S&P 500" Isn't Good Enough - 21st Jan 18
Bunnies and Geckos of Sheffield Street Tree Fellings Protests Explained - 21st Jan 18
Jim Rickards: Next Financial Panic Will Be the Biggest of All, with Only One Place to Turn… - 20th Jan 18
Macro Trend Changes for Gold in 2018 and Beyond - Empire Club of Canada - 20th Jan 18
Top 5 Trader Information Sources for Timely, Successful Investing - 20th Jan 18
Bond Market Bear Creating Gold Bull Market - 19th Jan 18
Gold Stocks GDX $25 Breakout on Earnings - 19th Jan 18
SPX is Higher But No Breakout - 19th Jan 18
Game Changer for Bitcoin - 19th Jan 18
Upside Risk for Gold in 2018 - 19th Jan 18
Money Minute - A 60-second snapshot of the UK Economy - 19th Jan 18
Discovery Sport Real MPG Fuel Economy Vs Land Rover 53.3 MPG Sales Pitch - 19th Jan 18
For Americans Buying Gold and Silver: Still a Big U.S. Pricing Advantage - 19th Jan 18
5 Maps And Charts That Predict Geopolitical Trends In 2018 - 19th Jan 18
North Korean Quagmire: Part 2. Bombing, Nuclear Threats, and Resolution - 19th Jan 18
Complete Guide On Forex Trading Market - 19th Jan 18
Bitcoin Crash Sees Flight To Physical Gold Coins and Bars - 18th Jan 18
The Interest Rates Are What Matter In This Market - 18th Jan 18
Crude Oil Sweat, Blood and Tears - 18th Jan 18
Land Rover Discovery Sport - Week 3 HSE Black Test Review - 18th Jan 18
The North Korea Quagmire: Part 1, A Contest of Colonialism and Communism - 18th Jan 18
Understand Currency Trade and Make Plenty of Money - 18th Jan 18
Bitcoin Price Crash Below $10,000. What's Next? We have answers… - 18th Jan 18
How to Trade Gold During Second Half of January, Daily Cycle Prediction - 18th Jan 18
More U.S. States Are Knocking Down Gold & Silver Barriers - 18th Jan 18
5 Economic Predictions for 2018 - 18th Jan 18
Land Rover Discovery Sport - What You Need to Know Before Buying - Owning Week 2 - 17th Jan 18
Bitcoin and Stock Prices, Both Symptoms of Speculative Extremes! - 17th Jan 18
So That’s What Stock Market Volatility Looks Like - 17th Jan 18
Tips On Choosing the Right Forex Dealer - 17th Jan 18
Crude Oil is Starting 2018 Strong but there's Undeniable Risk to the Downside - 16th Jan 18
SPX, NDX, INDU and RUT Stock Indices all at Resistance Levels - 16th Jan 18
Silver Prices To Surge – JP Morgan Has Acquired A “Massive Quantity of Physical Silver” - 16th Jan 18
Carillion Bankruptcy and the PFI Sector Spiraling Costs Crisis, Amey, G4S, Balfour Beatty, Serco.... - 16th Jan 18
Artificial Intelligence - Extermination of Humanity - 16th Jan 18
Carillion Goes Bust, as Government Refuses to Bailout PFI Contractors Debt and Pensions Liabilities - 15th Jan 18
What Really Happens in Iran?  - 15th Jan 18
Stock Market Near an Intermediate Top? - 15th Jan 18
The Key Economic Indicator You Should Watch in 2018 - 15th Jan 18
London Property Market Crash Looms As Prices Drop To 2 1/2 Year Low - 15th Jan 18
Some Fascinating Stock Market Fibonacci Relationships... - 15th Jan 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

6 Critical Money Making Rules

Stock Market Flirts With Dow 20k New All Time High

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016 Dec 17, 2016 - 06:37 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock-Markets

The Dow flirted with 20k this week, hitting a high of 19,966, literally within a few points of claiming the historic 20k level along its relentless bull market path. If one looks back to not just the start of 2016, but, well right up until AFTER the US polls closed on November 8th and beyond then its not just a case of Dow 20k could never happen but that the Dow 'should' by now be trading at well BELOW 15k. Whilst a few of the perma crowd had completely flipped imagining the Dow could trade down to as low as 6k! I suppose that's where the Dow needs to trade for some guys and gals just to BREAKEVEN after year after year of beartish rhetoric.


Whilst my consistent view all year is that the Dow would trade to a series of new highs during the second half of 2016 and that ultimately the Dow targeted a trend to 20k, which my analysis of 14th November concluded could occur BEFORE the end of this year!

See my series of videos for taste of this years analysis and with more plenty articles in my articles archive (http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/UserInfo-Nadeem_Walayat.html).

26th Jan 2016 - Dow 16,093

2nd March 2016 - Dow 16,685

17th May 2016 - Dow 17,710

Stock Market - Crude Oiil Forecast

7th August 2016 - Dow 18,500

19 Nov 2016 - Dow 18,905 - Trump Delirium Triggers Stock Market Brexit Upwards Crash Towards Dow 20,000!

Now I know you all want me to promptly trundle out my forecast conclusion for the Dow for 2017. However, I think now is good time to remind my readers and viewers of my videos that my forecast conclusions are the SUM of ALL of analysis. If I just relied on technical analysis then honestly I would likely only be marginally more accurate than most of the other newsletter and trading service peddlers out there. Which is why I don't pander to a subscriber base because I know, I KNOW TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IS A RED HERRING! Look TA is highly convincing, highly seductive but on its own its not going to let one arrive at that which is the most probable! As its highly subjective! Its very, very easy to make TA fit a point of view even if you try hard not to do that!

So I don't approach forecasts from TA, rather that tends to the the LAST step. So there are 3 key elements to arriving at that which is most probable which I have often voiced, especially when I've gone off on the deep end on one of my tangents for as far that train of thought takes me down whilst readers prompt me that they want a forecast of where the Dow or, x,yz is likely to go.

1. The Mega-trends. If I don't understand the mega-trends then I may as well just play pin the tail on the donkey for no matter how good my technical analysis is it won't be better than a coin toss. Which is why I obsesses over the mega-trends such as inflation, debt, machine intelligence, climate change, geopolitics etc...

2. Put My Money Where My Mouth is - To arrive at a probable conclusion I need to actually want to seek to commit my own funds to that market at the outset. If I do analysis on a market where I never intended to invest then unless it is a very related market i.e. precious metals, or different country stock markets then I am not going to have that extra edge, that extra incentive to really, really want to know.

3. Technical Analysis - This is my LAST analysis step, I don't even want to think about the charts until I have worked through the above steps, and since I don't pander to a paid subscriber base I do tend to go silent on markets from time to time until I see an unfolding opportunity to profit from. Now again, unlike the vast majority of analysts out there, I am SKEPTICAL OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS! There is NO Black Box, Proprietary indicators or holy grail that works! Those that tell you such are bullshitting you! Technical analysis is just that a skill at using technical tools, like driving a car is a technical skill, however without knowing where your going, then your just going to get lost! Which is what apparently happens to most analysts, they get lost in technical analysis! yes it all looks and sounds very convincing but they could have saved themselves a hell of a lot of time by just flipping a coin! I should know I have tested it! A coin toss vs technical analysis result in similar outcomes and that's for someone who deem themselves as being very experienced at TA! So you can well understand why most analysts fail to even beat a coin toss !

So in advance of my Dow stock market forecast for 2017, I will once more be meandering down a mega-trend lane. Trumps Coming War on China. Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter to get this mega-trend analysis shortly in your email in box as well as the stock and other market detailed trend analysis that will follow it.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2016 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

mydan
17 Dec 16, 16:58
Thank you

Thank you so much for sharing your thoughts on analysis of the markets. . You are one of the top and most accurate forecasters in the World Wide Web

Daniel


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules