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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock-Markets

Saturday, April 17, 2021

Stocks and Bonds Inflationary Slingshot / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Gary_Tanashian

Cost-push inflation could break out (and a note on gold)

Before beginning the post a little context is in order. We (NFTRH) anticipated the current pause in long-term Treasury yields (one indicator of inflation) because pro-inflation sentiment became over-done in March and was due for a cool down; so said a contrarian view. This post discussing the likelihood of more inflation to come is not written by a one-way bias booster. It’s important for credibility to make these distinctions from the herds running with the daily news cycle.

The short-term contrary sentiment situation against the inflation view began with the Bond King’s media-touted short of long-term Treasuries (i.e. expectation of higher yields), per one of our best macro tools…

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Companies

Saturday, April 17, 2021

Google Alphabet (GOOG) AI Deep Mind Stock Trend Analysis / Companies / Google

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Google stock has just rocketed higher after under performing it's brethren, and coming from it's last great buying opportunity low during September that saw Google trade down to $1400. This illustrates the primary point that we don't know precisely WHEN an individual stock will surge higher i.e. the AI stocks are not going to all move in lock step together. So it is pointless to ask questions such as why is Amazon soaring but Google is not, if a stock is good then eventually it will come good in terms of price performance and Google is literally PRIMARY which means that Google is likely to be the first mega-corp to be run by an AI in all but name. So the existence and scope of the AI's control and management needs will need to be inferred where one big clue will be inexplicable to most stock price movements that to me reveal the handiwork of post human intelligence - DEEP MIND!

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Personal_Finance

Saturday, April 17, 2021

Best Smartphone Selfie Stick Tripod Review by ATUMTEK Works with Samsung Galaxy and Iphone / Personal_Finance / Mobile Technology

By: HGR

This is a review of one of the best tripod selfie sticks on the market (Amazon) that is made by ATUMTEK. Mini Extendable 3 in 1 Aluminum Blue tooth Selfie Stick with Wireless Remote and Tripod Stand 270° Rotation for iPhone 12,11 Pro/XS Max/XS/XR/X/8/7,10,20, Samsung and Smartphone. Watch the video to find out what its like.

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Personal_Finance

Saturday, April 17, 2021

How to Give Budgie's First Bath | Easy Budgie Bathing and Water Training with Lettuce / Personal_Finance / Animals & Pets

By: Eliza_Walayat

Here's how to give your budgies their first bath, easy budgie bathing training, no wasting of time and money getting fancy expensive plastic products, here's how to get it done effectively, and where you can add a little bit extra with some lettuce for your birds to nibble on whilst they bath.

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Personal_Finance

Saturday, April 17, 2021

Record-breaking Decrease in New Passenger Vehicle Sale in Europe / Personal_Finance / Insurance

By: S_N_Chatterjee

COVID-19 pandemic exerted a significant influence on the automotive sector. In 2020, a sharp decrease in new vehicle sale in the European Union was recorded. When compared to 2019, the number of such vehicles is 3 million lower.

According to ACEA (Association des Constructeurs Européens d'Automobiles), Covid-19 pandemic brought many companies to stop production and reduce employment. The first coronavirus wave had the greatest impact on new vehicle sales in 2020. What is more, the financial standing of many people who were interested in buying a car deteriorated.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, April 16, 2021

US Stocks Climb A “Wall Of Worry” To New Highs / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Low volume rallies have become a standard of trending recently.  We see higher volume when volatility kicks in near areas of broad market volatility.  Otherwise, we see lower volume trending push the prices higher recently in a “melt-up” type of mode.

Two recent standout events confirm this type of trending and volatility phases of the markets: (1) the September 2020 to early November 2020 (pre-US Election) rotation in price; and (2) the recent February 2021 to late March 2021 sideways price rotation related to the FOMC meeting/comments.  Both of these events centered around external market components and prompted an extended period of price volatility related to uncertainty.  After these events passed, price fell back into a low volume rally mode for many months, where most of the actual price gains happened.

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Commodities

Friday, April 16, 2021

Gold’s Singular Role / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Kelsey_Williams

When it comes to analyzing gold and gold prices there seems to be no limit to the explanations of cause and effect. The number of things presumed to be fundamental, or which are correlated to gold, has grown exponentially as gold receives more attention in the media and from the public.

The state of confusion that exists regarding gold and gold prices is exacerbated by the contradictions and conflicting arguments of almost all concerned parties. This includes  investors, traders, analysts, and brokers (make sure your broker is safe to trade).

Rather than a desire to understand gold and its singular role, most investors and others are interested in gold only when its  price is going up. They buy it and then look for reasons to justify their expectations of even higher prices.

They do look for explanations as to why the price goes down, of course; especially when that happens after they have taken a position on the long side. By then, it is usually too late.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, April 16, 2021

See what Anatomy of a Bursting Market Bubble looks like / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble

By: EWI

Those who are familiar with the Elliott wave model for analyzing and forecasting financial markets know that a main trend takes the form of five waves.

Thus, when the fifth wave is complete, a trend in the opposite direction is set to begin.

Another insight into the Wave Principle that's relevant to the present discussion is that corrections often end at the terminus of the previous fourth wave of one lesser degree of trend.

If that sounds like a mouthful, hold on, you're about to see a market example that'll make it plain as day.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, April 16, 2021

Many Stock Market Sectors Are Primed For Another Breakout Rally – Are You? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

As we start moving into the Q1:2021 earnings season, we need to be aware of the risks associated with the volatility often associated with earnings data and unknowns.  Nonetheless, there are other factors that appear to be present in current trends which suggest earnings may prompt a moderately strong upside breakout rally – again.

One key factor is that the US markets are already starting to price in forwarding expectations related to a reflation economy – a post-COVID acceleration in activity, consumer participation, and manufacturing.  Secondarily, we must also consider the continued stimulus efforts, easy monetary policy from the US Fed, and the continued trending related to the 12+ month long COVID-19 recovery rally. 

In some ways, any damage to the economy related to COVID-19 may have already happened well over 6+ months ago.  Certainly, there are other issues we are still dealing with and recovering from, but the strength of the US economy since May/June of 2020 has been incredible.  When we combine the strength of the economic recovery with the extended support provided by the US Fed and US government stimulus/policy efforts, we are left with only one conclusion:  the markets will likely continue to rally until something stops this trend.

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Housing-Market

Friday, April 16, 2021

What Skyrocketing US Home Prices Say About Inflation / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: MoneyMetals

Anyone who says inflation isn’t a problem hasn’t tried shopping for a new home recently.

Housing costs are skyrocketing. The median sales price of existing homes has spiked 16% over the past 12 months (from $270,400 to $313,000) – the fastest pace in 15 years.

The real estate market is being pressured not only by a low inventories of houses listed for sale, but also by rising prices for construction materials.

Home builders must deal with a massive 200% increase in lumber costs since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. According to the National Association of Home Builders, lumber’s elevated price adds about $24,000 to the final quote on a typical new single-family home.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, April 16, 2021

Still a Bullish Fever in Stocks? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 went nowhere yesterday – just like the prior Monday, heavy buying into Friday‘s close met no follow-up the day after. After almost touching 16 to close the week, VIX peeked higher yesterday only to reverse back down. Nice try but if you look at the put/call ratio turning down simulatenously, the alarm bells are far from ringing.

The S&P 500 rise of late isn‘t without its good share of non-confirmations though. The ones seen in Russell 2000 and emerging markets got a fresh company in the corporate credit markets. No denying that the stock market is in a strong uptrend, but it got a bit too stretched vs. its 50-day moving average – a consolidation in short order would be a healthy move, but the CPI readings above expectations don‘t favor one today.

If you look at the put/call ratio again, its lows throughout Mar and Apr haven‘t been reaching the really exuberant levels of prior months, hinting at a less steep path of S&P 500 gains. And what about the volume print as stocks went about making new highs? Not encouraging either, and it‘s not that rising yields would be causing trouble:

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Companies

Thursday, April 15, 2021

Trying to Buy Coinbase Stock on IPO Day - Institutional Investors Freeze out Retail Investors / Companies / BlockChain

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The institutional investors froze out the retail investors, I tried to buy the stock around a target price of about $350 for the first half hour of trading without success, no stock available as my following video illustrates. I view coinbase as a high risk long-term all or nothing stock, if you don't understand what that means then first read my recent article in-depth analysis on how to invest in high risk stocks (How to Invest in HIGH RISK Tech Stocks for 2021 and Beyond) that has first been made available to patrons who support my work.

So coinbase closed at $328, which is better than if it closed at $428, though in the long-run the current price should not make much difference, i.e. if the price increases 10 fold or goes to zero so the few percent difference does not matter much at the start in ones high risk investment that gives exposure to a crypto stock that should be still around a decade from now and unlike crypto currencies can be held within a tax free wrapper such as an ISA or SIPP.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, April 15, 2021

Stocks or Gold – Which Is in the Catbird Seat? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 spurted higher after prior days of tiny gains. Still lining up the upper border of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart, stocks keep defying gravity. But the corporate credit markets are sending a gentle warning sign as they failed to move higher in unison on Friday.

Given the Fed support and liquidity injections talked on Friday:

(…)   the Powell bid is in, affecting „traditional“ sectoral dynamics of rotation. Value is probably about to feel the heat if you look at the very long lower knot in financials (XLF ETF) yesterday. Yes, this interest rate sensitive sector still rose in the face of long-dated Treasuries‘ gains. Needless to say, technology loved that, and its heavyweights ($NYFANG) keep driving the sector up. It looks to be a question of time before Tesla (TSLA) joins – Square (SQ) already did.

The spanner in the works proved to be long-dated Treasuries as these gave up all intraday gains, and closed in a non-bullish fashion. The retreat in rising yields is running into headwinds, much sooner than the 10-year one could reach the low 1.50%  figure at least. Value stocks and cyclicals such as financials appear calling it out, and both rose on Friday – and so did industrials and technology, all without tech heavyweights‘ help. Utilities and consumer staples went mostly sideways, disregarding the danger of yields about to rise again.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, April 15, 2021

Time For A Stock Market Melt-Up / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Avi_Gilburt

While I cannot tell you with certainty that we are about to see a market melt-up, I can tell you that the setup is now in place to melt up to the 4400SPX region through the spring.

Before I go into my expectations, there are a few issues I would like to address, which seem to almost always come up in the comments section to my articles.

Many of you have taken strong exception to the fact that I really do not bother with the news. Your perspectives are often based upon your personal experience of seeing the markets move when news is announced. So, you assume that the substance of the news is always the driver of the market move. And, this makes you view my perspective as quite untenable.

So, allow me to explain my perspective in a bit more detail, and maybe you will begin to understand.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, April 15, 2021

Stocks Bull Market Progression Now Shows Base Metal Strength / Stock-Markets / Metals & Mining

By: Donald_W_Dony

Sector performance within the present bull market has largely replicated an historical pattern. Over the past 12 years, the rise and eventual outperformance over the benchmark indexes (i.e. TSX and S&P 500), of specific industry groups has developed starting with technology and consumer discretionary sectors in 2009 and carrying through to the current sector of base metals.

The normal progression of performance in industry groups, beginning with a bear market low, through a gradual recovery and into a full bull market and then with a final cresting high, is illustrated in Chart 1.

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Companies

Wednesday, April 14, 2021

AI Tech Stocks Buy Ratings, Levels and Valuations / Companies / AI

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is the final part of my most recent investing in AI tech stocks series focused on the remaining AI stocks on my list following the Top 5 in my last article. However the whole of this extensive analysis was first made available to Patrons who support my work:

AI Tech Stocks Buying Ratings, Levels and Valuations March 2021

  • AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations 2021 Explained
  • Coronavirus Pandemic Vaccines Indicator Current State
  • Post Pandemic Summer 2021 Social Unrest ?
  • Get Ready for Inflation Mega-trend to Surge 2021
  • The AI Megatrend Big Picture
  • Human Brain vs High End Desktop PC in 2021
  • AI Stocks Investing 2021 - Top 14 Stocks Analysis
  • AI Stocks Portfolio Table 2021
  • Stocks Bear Market / Crash Indicator (CI18)

So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

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Personal_Finance

Wednesday, April 14, 2021

Easy 10% to 15% Overclock for 5600x, 5900x, 5950x Using AMD Ryzen Master Precision Boost Overdrive / Personal_Finance / Computing

By: HGR

If you have got a AMD Ryzen process er be it a 3000 series or the newer 5000 series such as the 5600x, 5900x and 5950x then if you are using stock settings you are leaving a lot of performance on the table, anywhere from 10% to 15% that can be easily achieved following the easy to follow steps in this video.

EASY overclocking within a few minutes. So watch the video, follow the steps and get your 10% to 15% boost! As an example I managed to boost a new system at stock settings by 14.5%! All without doing any fancy time consuming overclocking but easy quick overclock.

So what are you waiting for? BOOST your Ryzen processor now by 10% to 15%!

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Commodities

Wednesday, April 14, 2021

The Current Cannabis Sector Rally Is Pointing To Another Breakout / Commodities / Cannabis

By: Chris_Vermeulen

My research team and I continue to believe the Cannabis/Alternative sector is poised for a big trend in 2021 and 2022.  Over the past few years, this sector has continued to trend lower after the hype of 2016~2018 – back when everyone was getting into the Cannabis industry as multiple US states authorized recreational and medical use.  After the 2018 peak, followed by the early 2019 moderate price recovery, this entire industry sector fell out of favor with investors for almost 2 full years.

MJ Pennant Setup Almost Complete

The peak in the MJ, Alternative Harvest ETF, in September 2018 was $45.40.  The lowest price since that peak was in March 2020 at $8.81 – that’s an 80% decline in price.  Currently, MJ is trading near $22.31 and we’ve seen a tremendous recovery after the 2020 US elections.  These elections resulted in a wave of enthusiasm for Cannabis and Alternative supply companies as it was widely expected the Democrats would move quickly to legalize Cannabis and other illegal drugs after their win.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, April 14, 2021

U.S. Dollar Junk Bond Market The Easiest Money in History / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EWI

The latest data from Refinitiv shows that companies have raised a record $140 billion in the U.S. dollar junk bond market during the first quarter of this year. That beats the previous record set during the second quarter last year when companies scrambled to issue debt in a bid to raise cash during the pandemic. The three biggest issuance quarters in history have been set in the past year. With investors falling over themselves to lend money to any venture offering a U.S. dollar yield above 4%, companies are now not only finding that they can raise money easily in order to roll over existing debt, but some are using the proceeds to pay dividends to owners. It's beyond absurd.

When a mania is in full force, though, the vast majority of participants are blind to the absurdity. Investors, for instance, think that they must lend because 4% or higher is such a juicy yield when compared with anything else. And the central banks will not let companies fail, so it's a free lunch.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, April 14, 2021

The SPY Is Nearing Resistance @ $410… What Is Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

My shorter-term analysis for the markets continues to stay Bullish and suggests the US reflation trade, the strengthening of the US and the global economy, and recovery from the COVID-19 restrictions will likely prompt a moderately strong upside price trend leading into at least mid Q2:2021.  The recent strength of the US Dollar is helping to push capital into the US markets as foreign investors attempt to shift capital away from Emerging Market and currency weakness and the Treasury Yield rallies seem to have indicated a moderate warning related to global central banks attempting to front-run inflation concerns.

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