Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, December 14, 2011
Fed Stands Pat as the Curtain Closes on 2011 / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Fed upgraded the performance of the U.S. economy compared with its assessment in November. The FOMC vote to stand pat was nearly unanimous, with only one dissent. Chicago Fed President Evans dissented as he would have preferred additional policy accommodation. The economy is now seen to be growing at a moderate pace despite the slowing conditions abroad. The Fed noted that while there are "some improvements in the labor market," the "unemployment rate remains elevated."
Tuesday, December 13, 2011
Changing Views on Growth and Economic Recovery / Economics / Global Economy
By: Bill_Bonner
What’s new?
When we signed off last week, the Germans and the French were trying to hold Europe together. This morning, they are still trying.
“Don’t you live in Europe?” asked a friend at a party over the weekend.
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Tuesday, December 13, 2011
Sorting Out the Euro-zone Mess / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: John_Mauldin
I had the pleasure of spending the morning and part of the afternoon today with Louis Gave and Anatole Kaletsky at a seminar here in Dallas; and we shared a long lunch, where Europe and China were the topics of conversation. So, with their permission, here is their latest "Five Corners," in which Charles Gave and Anatole Kaletsky discuss last week's summit, and then engage in an internal debate about whether Italy really has a significant trade deficit with Germany. As I expect from GaveKal, it's not your typical analysis. And since I have to run to dinner – and glean more insights from their team (there will be homework when I get back!), this introduction to Outside the Box is short, and we can jump right into today's piece. Have a great week.
Tuesday, December 13, 2011
U.S. Household Debt - Deleveraging Posts New Record / Economics / US Debt
By: Asha_Bangalore
Household debt soared prior to the onset of the financial crisis to establish a peak at $13.9 trillion in second quarter of 2008 (see Chart 2). During the thirteen quarters since the peak, household debt has declined $688 billion (see Chart 3) to set a new record for the post-war period.
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Tuesday, December 13, 2011
The Other Side of the Austerity Program - German Economy Stands to Lose / Economics / Germany
By: Asha_Bangalore
A fiscal austerity program has been adopted as the cure all for the ills of the indebted members of the eurozone. The flipside of this policy is that in the short-run Germany’s exports of goods and services will take a deep hit. Exports of goods and services from Germany reached a record high of 51% in the third quarter of 2011 (see Chart 1).
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Monday, December 12, 2011
ECRI Renews U.S. Recession Call Clashing with Wall Street Expectations / Economics / Recession 2012
By: EconMatters
The U.S. economy is showing signs of life with good economic numbers after the ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) declared on 30 Sep. that the U.S. has already or is about to dip into recession.
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Saturday, December 10, 2011
Drop in U.S. Oil Imports Leads to Lower Trade Deficit / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The trade deficit narrowed to $43.5 billion in October from $44.2 billion in the prior month. A 0.8% drop in nominal exports of good and service and a 1.0% drop in imports of goods and services resulted in an overall improvement of the trade gap. Real exports of goods increased 1.2% but real imports of goods fell 0.3% in October. Oil imports declined in October (2.8%) reflecting a lower quantity and price.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 09, 2011
How an Economy Collapses... and How to Protect Yourself / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Paul_Mladjenovic
There are growing fears that an economic collapse is on the way. Is this fear justified? Before we conclude that it is a by-gone conclusion and that it's time to head for the hills, let's first cover how and why an economy collapses. In this essay I talk about economic collapse as an "internal event". Keep in mind that there are "external" reasons for an economy to collapse (such as war and/or natural events such as earthquakes etc.)
Wednesday, December 07, 2011
Eurozone Debt Downgrade Shock Waves Could Slam Into US Economy / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2012
By: Dan_Amerman
Standard & Poor's missed the point when they "only" put 15 Eurozone nations on credit watch for possible near term downgrades. In this highly interconnected world - most of Europe can't be put on credit watch without putting much of the world on credit watch, with the United States being particularly vulnerable to global "contagion" risks.
Twelve possible implications for the United States are concisely explored herein. These "shock waves" include everything from the value of the dollar, to unemployment, gas prices, stock prices, derivatives, US bank stability, inflation, retirement investing, Federal Reserve reactions, the US deficit and credit rating, the potential criminal prosecution of S&P, and more.
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Wednesday, December 07, 2011
Brazil, India, China and Eurozone Economic Headwinds to Heed in 2012 / Economics / Global Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
There has been a string of positive news about the U.S. economy in the past few days – auto sales rose, jobless rate fell, the ISM manufacturing survey points to an increase in new orders and production, private sector construction outlays advanced. But, news from abroad is disappointing and could translate into more than a temporary dip in exports. The important question is if the tailwinds can offset the headwinds blowing through the United States.
Tuesday, December 06, 2011
What the Christmas Price Index is Telling U.S. Consumers About Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Money_Morning
Kerri Shannon writes:
U.S. consumers can get a glimpse of what to expect in price changes this holiday shopping season - especially if you get your gift ideas from an old song.
The PNC Christmas Price Index, released by PNC Wealth Management (NYSE: PNC) measures the total cost of presents listed in the classic tune, "The Twelve Days of Christmas." This year, the price tag for an ambitious gift-giver buying all 364 presents hit $101,119.84, a 4.4% gain over last year's index.
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Tuesday, December 06, 2011
Europe Entering a Decade Long Recession / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Mike_Shedlock
If French president Nicolas Sarkozy gets his wish to "Level the Playing Field" on sovereign bonds, a decade-long European recession is on its way.
Read full article... Read full article...French President Nicolas Sarkozy made it clear in a speech in Toulon last week that he wanted the private sector to be given a more-level playing field when it came to the threat of having to bear losses on their investments.
Monday, December 05, 2011
Economic Armageddon: 2012 or 2013? / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Clif_Droke
In his latest report, Samuel Kress of SineScope reviewed the 120-year cycle and broke it down into its constituent cycles. For the sake of our long time readers, I’m providing my own breakdown of the 120-year cycle and its effects on the past, present and future of the financial market and economy. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 05, 2011
Marc Faber Warns China Economy Heading for a Major Slowdown / Economics / China Economy
By: Videos
Marc Faber's big China short. Forget Europe, says Faber, it's China that's in for a major slowdown, with a relatively short appearance on CNBC's Simon Hobbs and the Money In Motion traders.
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Monday, December 05, 2011
U.S. Economic System Misunderstanding Capitalism / Economics / US Economy
By: Bill_Bonner
As expected, the euphoria died overnight. On Wednesday, the Dow was up nearly 500 points. Thursday, it fell 23 points.
More and more people are coming to the same conclusion. The bull market is a fraud. And the system is corrupt. And they’re right. But not for the reasons they think.
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Sunday, December 04, 2011
BubbleOmiX Predicts US Employment Will Climb By 5-Million Over Next 18-Months / Economics / Employment
By: Andrew_Butter
The essential theory of BubbleOmix is that Ying follows Yang or in other words What Goes-Around Comes Around.
Employment in USA is a market, some people look to buy services, and interestingly 35% of companies in USA these days can’t find qualified people for the jobs they are offering (no prizes for guessing where those jobs will go). The fact that there may be a lot of unemployed (and unemployable) people doesn’t change the numbers of jobs on offer; it just changes the wages the jobs pay…slightly.
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Saturday, December 03, 2011
U.S. Employment Up But Not Enough, World Slips into Recession As Central Bankers Unite! / Economics / Recession 2012
By: John_Mauldin
It is now common to use the term bazooka when referring the actions of governments and central banks as they try to avert a credit crisis. And this week we saw a coordinated effort by central banks to use their bazookas to head off another 2008-style credit disaster. The market reacted as if the crisis is now over and we can get on to the next bull run. Yet, we will see that it wasn't enough. Something more along the lines of a howitzer is needed (keeping with our WW2-era military arsenal theme). And of course I need to briefly comment on today's employment numbers. There is enough to keep us occupied for more than a few pages, so let's jump right in. (Note: this letter may print long, as there are a lot of charts.)
Saturday, December 03, 2011
U.S. Labor Market is Improving, but Imminent Europe Recession Could Upset the Apple Cart / Economics / Employment
By: Asha_Bangalore
Civilian Unemployment Rate: 8.6% in November, down from 9.1% in October. Cycle high jobless rate for the recent recession is 10.1% in October 2009.Payroll Employment: +120,000 jobs in November vs. +100,000 in October. Private sector jobs increased 140,000 after a gain of 117,000 in October. Addition of 82,000 jobs after revisions to payroll estimates of September and October
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Friday, December 02, 2011
The U.S. Consumer is Finally Bouncing Back / Economics / US Economy
By: Money_Morning
David Zeiler writes:
Consumers shed housing debt in the third quarter while ratcheting up spending elsewhere, raising hope that the single biggest driver of the U.S. economy - consumer spending - is back on the rise.
Mortgage balances fell 1.3% in the July-September period, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, while overall household debt shrank by 0.6%.
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Thursday, December 01, 2011
China Returns to Economic Growth Mode with Major Policy Shift / Economics / China Economy
By: Money_Morning
Kerri Shannon writes:
The damaging global economic effects that Europe's unfolding debt crisis pose have caused a sharp reversal in China's monetary policy - one that will lead to a greater expansion of the Red Dragon's economy.
The People's Bank of China announced yesterday (Wednesday) that it would lower the percentage of deposits commercial banks must hold in reserve by 50 basis points, effective Dec. 5.
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