Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, January 17, 2012
The Asian Coal Fired Economic Locomotive / Economics / Asian Economies
By: Andrew_McKillop
What If Its Thanksgiving But You Are The Turkey?
HOPING FOR GROWTH
Called the only rational strategy, but impossible in the current context, restoring economic growth in the debt-strapped OECD countries remains a religious-type hope for political and corporate leaders.
Tuesday, January 17, 2012
Expect a Global Economic Recession 2012 / Economics / Recession 2012
By: John_Mauldin
The "Quarterly Review and Outlook" from Hoisington Investment Management is one of the most significant pieces that crosses my desk – I try and drop everything else as soon as possible. This quarter's is no exception. The authors, Dr. Lacy Hunt and Van Hoisington, get right down to brass tacks with their opening sentence: "As the U.S. economy enters 2012, the gross government debt-to-GDP ratio stands near 100%." They cite an influential 2010 historical study of high-debt-level economies around the world, by Professors Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart, that concluded that when a country's gross government debt rises above 90% of GDP, "median growth rates fall by one percent, and average growth falls considerably more."
Tuesday, January 17, 2012
U.S. Economy GDP Forecasts 2012 and Recession Odds / Economics / US Economy
By: PhilStockWorld
Courtesy of Doug Short. On Friday of next week (January 27th) we’ll get the Advance Estimate for Q4 GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal’s January Survey of economists is now available. Let’s see what their crystal ball is telling them about Q4 GDP (download Excel File).
Monday, January 16, 2012
Economic Crisis and the Theory of the Cycle / Economics / Economic Theory
By: MISES
Jesus Huerta de Soto writes: The three years that have passed since the world financial crisis and subsequent economic recession hit have provided Austrian economists with a golden opportunity to popularize their theory of the economic cycle and their dynamic analysis of social conditions. In my own case, I could never have imagined at the beginning of 1998, when the first edition of my book Money, Bank Credit, and Economic Cycles appeared, that 12 years later, due undoubtedly to a financial crisis and economic recession unparalleled in the world since the Great Depression of 1929, a crisis and recession which no other economic paradigm managed to predict and adequately explain, my book would be translated into 14 languages and published (so far) in nine countries and several editions (two in the United States and four in Spain).
Saturday, January 14, 2012
Declining Trend of US Exports Warrants Close Watching / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The trade deficit of the U.S. widened to $47.75 billion in November from $43.27 billion in the prior month. Nominal exports of goods and services have dropped for two consecutive months, while exports of goods adjusted for fell 1.5% in November after posting gains in each of the two prior months. Imports of goods and services also advanced in November. The October-November data imply that a widening of the trade deficit in the fourth quarter is a negative for GDP growth.
Saturday, January 14, 2012
Global Aging Represents a Threat to World's Economy / Economics / Demographics
By: Barry_Elias
Sixty years ago, 34 developed nations of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) had seven workers to support each retiree.
Today, there are only four workers per beneficiary.
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Friday, January 13, 2012
Keynesian Death By Debt Continues / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2012
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
Debt constrains one's enjoyment of life. Without debt to repay, we could use our incomes solely for the pursuit of the good life. You get to define of what that consists, be it food and wine, debauchery or charitable deeds. With debt, life is miserable. Greece has learned that lesson. Spain and Portugal now know that. Those that lost their homes due to the bursting of the Federal Reserve's housing bubble know that. Seems just about everyone but Keynesian economists hiding in their academic cloisters, free of the real world, are fully aware of economic death through debt.
Friday, January 13, 2012
Euroland Factory Sector Posts Decline, Confirming Expectations of a Recession / Economics / Recession 2012
By: Asha_Bangalore
The European Central Bank (ECB) has chosen to watch and wait and did not take action after today’s meeting. The ECB has lowered the policy rate in the last two meetings to 1.00% from 1.50%. A preliminary report has indicated that real GDP of Germany contracted in the fourth quarter and German industrial production fell sharply in November.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 13, 2012
Increase in Initial U.S. Jobless Claims Could be a Timing Issue / Economics / Unemployment
By: Asha_Bangalore
Initial jobless claims rose 24,000 to 399,000 during the first week of the year. Timing could be playing role in the large increase of initial jobless claims. The four-week moving average at 381,750 will be tracked closely to estimate if the recent downward trend of initial jobless claims has been reversed or if it is beginning of the year distortion. Continuing claims, which lag initial jobless claims by one week, moved up 19,000 to 3.628 million.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 13, 2012
U.S. Retail Sales Strong Q4, But Underlying Momentum is Slowing / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Retail sales rose only 0.1% in December, after a 0.4% jump in November. The strong performance of retail sales in November and December has given a lift to total retail sales in the fourth quarter. It is nearly certain that consumer spending in the fourth quarter (+2.5%, forecast) will exceed that of the third quarter (+1.7%).
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Thursday, January 12, 2012
United States Coming Greek Moment, Collapse, No. Huge Losses, Guaranteed / Economics / US Debt
By: Gary_North
I did a search on Google for "economic collapse" and "2011." I got over 7 million hits.
I read a short piece on the probability of social collapse. The author argues that complex systems require more energy. At some point, there is not enough energy to sustain the system. Then it collapses.
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Thursday, January 12, 2012
Tracking China’s Imports and Germany’s Exports / Economics / China Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Imports of China slowed to a 10.7% year-over-year growth in December 2011 (see Chart 1), the smallest increase since late-2009. Imports of China from Germany, the driver of economic growth in Europe, have posted a significant slowing, with the December increase amounting a paltry 4.2%, the smallest gain since October 2009. The broader implication of these trends is that not only is German business activity hit by a deceleration of imports of China but the intricate web of world trade has a wide reach and will translate into a setback in business conditions among other trading partners.
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Wednesday, January 11, 2012
Fed Dismisses U.S. Economic Recovery / Economics / US Economy
By: Michael_Pento
The Fed is becoming more concerned about the sustainability of the U.S. recovery, just as the economy looks to be gaining momentum. The unemployment rate has dropped from 9.4% in December of 2010, to 8.5% twelve months later. The American economy has added 1.5 million jobs over the past year, according to the establishment survey of employment, while the household survey shows we have averaged a monthly gain of 230,000 jobs over the past six months. Meanwhile, the average work week and hourly earnings also showed improvement in the December Nonfarm payroll report. In addition, Gross Domestic Product has increased for nine consecutive quarters and is anticipated to post just under a 3% annualized growth in Q4 2011, up from 1.8% during the prior quarter.
Wednesday, January 11, 2012
Outlook of Small Businesses Improves, But Still Short of Levels Seen in Good Economic Times / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Small Business Optimism Index moved up to 93.8 during December from 92 in the prior month. The improvement is noteworthy and it is the highest since February 2011. However, the level of the index is within the range seen during the recession (see Chart 1).
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Tuesday, January 10, 2012
2012 Stoking Another Deadly Recession / Economics / Recession 2012
By: FNN24
Our weekly update, published here takes a look at economic fundamentals across EU, US and UK while also looking at charts from FX markets and bond markets. Data has been mixed over the last few months with a case being made for US and UK to outperform all other markets while EU economies present a mixed picture with Germany standing out. But even then, we believe there are kinks in the growth picture across US, UK and EU as EURO crisis is expected to take an iron grip of the flow of credit over the next few months. Over EUR 1 trillion are set to be rolled over.
Tuesday, January 10, 2012
The Making of China's Epic Economic Hard landing / Economics / China Economy
By: Dee_Woo
1. The unsavory episodes of China's economy
For the better part of the past year, my concern about Chinese economy was constantly aggravated by the depressing stories of entrepreneurs who committed suicide, fleeted the country or emigrate to the western world in droves. Most media have blamed the credit crunch and monetary tightening for all these unsavory episodes. The public outcry for the deteriorating conditions of Chinese entrepreneurship climaxed with the seemly positive step PBOC(the People's Bank of China) took on Dec 5 2011 to alleviate the liquidity crisis: cut the RRR (reserve requirement ratio) to 21 percent from a record high of 21.5 percent.
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Tuesday, January 10, 2012
Headwinds That Could Rock the U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The key question about the growth trajectory of the U.S. economy for 2012 is if domestic economic momentum that is visible in bullish economic reports of past – ISM factory survey data, Q4 auto sales, and December employment report – will prevail in the rest of 2012 and offset headwinds from Europe (and its associated ramifications) and the setback from a decelerating trend of business activity in China. In the context, we will be providing periodic updates as economic reports are published.
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Monday, January 09, 2012
Understanding Deflation, How DEEP Will Cuts in Government Services Go? / Economics / Deflation
By: EWI
"Localities have chopped 535,000 positions since September 2008..." USA Today (10/18)
Cuts in government services became conspicuous after the 2007-2009 financial crisis.
The first edition of Robert Prechter's Conquer the Crash saw this coming, even though the book published nearly a decade ago:
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Monday, January 09, 2012
China 2012: The Year of the Bull (Rogers) or the Bear (Chanos)? / Economics / China Economy
By: Janet_Tavakoli
When I think of a China bull and a China bear, I think of the legendary dueling Jims: Jim Rogers and Jim Chanos. In response to investors bearish on China, Jim Rogers famously said: “I find it interesting that people who couldn’t spell China 10 years ago are now experts.” Jim Chanos famously said that China’s real estate market is “Dubai times 1,000 — or worse.” He’s been saying that for over two years. Chanos points to a credit bubble, and says he’s early and sticking with his short positions. Rogers insists “China is not in a [credit] bubble,” rather it’s been in a price bubble in urban, coastal real estate, and to compare China to Dubai is a false analogy. Jim Rogers is bullish on China’s long term prospects: “China is going to have many serious problems along the way as it rises, but ‘Dubai 1000 times over’?!”
Saturday, January 07, 2012
Can The U.S. Economic Recovery Overcome Europe’s Drag? / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Sy_Harding
In an October column I wrote, “For the first time this year the trend of U.S. economic reports is potentially bottoming and turning positive. And after being bearish in the spring and summer, I like what I see in the technical charts of many markets. If only we could ignore Europe.”That pretty much still defines the situation as we enter the new year.
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