Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, August 07, 2011
Emerging Markets Still Undervalued, Global Capital Shift Is Accelerating / Economics / Emerging Markets
By: John_Mauldin
As will be clear below, I had finished an earlier version of this week's e-letter, but the events of the last few minutes require a few paragraphs. As I write at the end of the letter, Bloomberg kept their satellite truck here in Maine, as they had got advance warning of the downgrade by S&P of US debt and wanted to interview a number of the economists here, including your humble analyst. I can't rewrite the letter at this late hour, but will send you additional comments on Monday. And you can go to www.bloomberg.com and see everyone's remarks, including mine. It will be there somewhere, they promise me.
Sunday, August 07, 2011
Debt And The Economic Degrowth Frontier / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Andrew_McKillop
WELL KNOWN LIMITS
There are basically two choices: degrowth by choice - or forced by uncontrolled debt growth finally becoming uncontrollable, and inevitably destroying economic growth.
The opposite "hopeful paradigm" is well known: the so-called "growth economy" is able to profit from rising amounts of debt relative to GDP for a long way up the curve. This is sure, but the single-minded pursuit of growth pushes this mindless quest over the threshold into forced degrowth, when debt soars beyond well known thresholds.
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Friday, August 05, 2011
Mass Layoffs, Robots, Paints Dismal U.S. Jobs Siutation / Economics / Employment
By: Mike_Shedlock
A good jobs report on Friday (if we get one) is now meaningless. Looking ahead, the jobs situation is bleak globally, not just in the US. Here is supporting evidence for my statement.
Friday, August 05, 2011
U.S. Jobless Claims Holding At Elevated Level / Economics / Unemployment
By: Asha_Bangalore
Initial jobless claims fell 1,000 to 400,000 for the week ended July 30. Continuing claims, which lag initial claims by one week, fell 10,000 to 3.73 million. Initial jobless claims have ranged between 412,000 and 428,000 for three straight months. The main message is that firms are not hiring at a robust clip.
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Thursday, August 04, 2011
A Double Dip Recession? How Do We Protect Ourselves / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: George_Maniere
Today I am going to do something really amazing. I am going to tell you that in my opinion the U.S. economy has not entered a second recession; it never came out of the first one. Well, before you professional economists start writing me that the Webster’s definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth I will simply say for who? Indeed there are many Americans who have been so economically ravaged by this crisis that they have not lived through a recession - they have endured a depression. A Gallup poll that was released in April (when the DOW was 800 points higher than today’s close) said that 29% of the people polled didn’t care what the definition of a recession was. They said they were in a depression. Add to that, another 26% polled said that they felt they had never come out of the original recession.
Wednesday, August 03, 2011
US Manufacturing Indicative of Double Dip Recession / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
The double dip is one of the worst phenomena of an on-going recession. When an economy double dips, the losers of the first dip who were confident enough to enter into a small recovery are wiped out, thus setting the course for a very long second leg in an economic crisis.
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Wednesday, August 03, 2011
Bill Gross "we are at a tipping point for another recession" / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Bloomberg
Bill Gross spoke to Bloomberg Television’s Carol Massar this afternoon about the debt-ceiling debate and the U.S. economy.
Gross said that the debt-ceiling deal is a “Republican Tea Party victory” and that “we are at a tipping point” in terms of a recession. Excerpts from the interview are below, courtesy of Bloomberg Television.
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Wednesday, August 03, 2011
Five Things You Need to Know About the U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: David_Galland
David Galland, Managing Director, Casey Research writes: At any point during the recent negotiations in Washington over the debt, did you seriously think for even a second that the U.S. was about to default?
Of course, in time the U.S. government (along with many others) will default. However, they are highly unlikely to do so by decree or even through the sort of legislative inaction recently on display. Rather, it will come about through the time-honored tradition of screwing debtors via the slow-roasting method of monetary inflation.
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Tuesday, August 02, 2011
U.S. Economic Fundamentals Are More Important, Debt-Ceiling Deal is an Induced Necessity / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
On July 31, President Obama, Senator Reid, and House Speaker Boehner shook hands on a deal that will be voted on later today. The deal negotiated would lead to a total reduction of the budget deficit by $2.1 trillion during the 2012-2021 period. It also includes raising the debt ceiling between $2.1 trillion and $2.4 trillion by the final months of 2012. The timing and magnitude of the spending cuts as indicated in Table 3 of the latest scoring from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO's assessment of new legislation)point to discretionary spending cuts in the entire 2012-2021 period. Lower federal government outlays in 2012 in a fragile economic environment are a setback to economic growth.
Tuesday, August 02, 2011
U.S. Recession is "Real Risk" According to Dow Jones ESI Indicator / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Mike_Shedlock
Further adding to the evidence of a huge US slowdown, a Dow Jones Sentiment Indicator says Return to a Recession is a Real Risk
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Monday, August 01, 2011
The Next Down Leg of the U.S. Housing Bear Market has Begun / Economics / US Housing
By: Clif_Droke
Now that the latest round of quantitative easing (QE) has ended, it's time to take stock of whether inflation or deflation is likely to gain the upper hand going forward.
The Fed's monetary stimulus efforts of the last three years have done nothing to help what is arguably the biggest symptom of long-term deflation, namely the housing market. It's important to recall that the final "hard down" portion of the 60-year cycle of inflation/deflation cycle began with a collapse of real estate prices. The real estate bear market has been the chief evidence of deflation in the U.S. for the housing market prior to the crash represented the biggest form of savings for most Americans.
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Monday, August 01, 2011
The Source of Profits in the Business of Financial Speculation / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Aftab_Singh
There is scarcely an endeavor awash with more debate, allure, dogma and contempt than the business of financial speculation. The entire investment community is often derided as ‘just a bunch of gamblers’, the most successful speculators are often dismissed as ‘lucky’ and the very pursuit has even been likened to prancing around a fire with two horns on one’s temples. Naturally, we beg to differ. Here, I refute some of these commonly held misconceptions and outline our perception of the rudimentary source of consistent speculative gains.
Monday, August 01, 2011
The Great Correction: 4 Years…and Counting…Still No Economic Recovery in Sight / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Bill_Bonner
I’m glad to be the last speaker. Nobody can come after me and tell you why I’m wrong about everything. Instead, I get to tell you why the other speakers were numbskulls. Besides, we all have a tendency to be most influenced by the last person we talk to. Or at least I do.
Monday, August 01, 2011
How Deep is the Global Economic Rabbit Hole? / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Greg_Tomlinson
Quite simply, the world’s debt hole is deeper than any reasonable person can comprehend. It is difficult to define, and it is not terribly easy to write about - really it’s more of a concept than something that you can actually sink your teeth into. You won’t see an abundance of stories or editorials on this topic; in fact the financial media avoids the global debt situation like the plague for good reason. Sure, they talk about chunks of it, but almost never in total. However, with your indulgence, it is the purpose of this piece to bring us all a bit closer to not just understanding how dangerous things have become to all of us personally, but more importantly to frame the problem in terms of history and scale.
Monday, August 01, 2011
The Vices of the Modern Monetary Theory / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Aftab_Singh
A few months back, I wrote about a virtue of the MMT; namely, the way it focuses on sectoral balances. I think that this view is both interesting and useful for the contrarian investor. However, I do have some misgivings with the convictions of the typical Modern Monetary theorist. Here, I discuss some of the problems with the MMT frame of mind.
Sunday, July 31, 2011
Canada Surprise GDP Economic Contraction, Largest Drop in Two Years, It's Not Temporary / Economics / Canada
By: Mike_Shedlock
Lost in the US deficit battles and the pathetic US GDP statistics comes yet another surprise: Canada’s Economy Shrank 0.3% in May Posting the Largest Drop in Two Years
Read full article... Read full article...Canada’s gross domestic product fell in May by the most in two years due to temporary disruptions in the mining and oil and gas sector, government data showed.
Sunday, July 31, 2011
U.S. Economy Operating at Stall Speed, Recession in Our Future? / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: John_Mauldin
The GDP numbers for the second quarter came in, and there is no way to spin them as anything but ugly. And the revisions were worse. We simply have to take a few pages to look at them. And, as I noted last Monday in the Outside the Box, I met with some ten Senators Monday afternoon (as well as Congressmen in the morning), plus a lot of staff. Getting ten Senators in a room for 90-plus minutes is not so often done. I will report in this week's letter about our conversation and my impressions.
Sunday, July 31, 2011
U.S. Q2 GDP The Numbers Don't Add Up / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: Tony_Pallotta
Q1 2011 GDP was revised one final time from 1.9% to 0.4% and Q2 2011 GDP the first estimate was 1.3%. Before analyzing the data I have one very simple question.
Economic growth slowed during Q2 as acknowledged by the Fed and indicated by regional Fed surveys, ISM, durable goods, etc so how could Q2 GDP be higher than Q1 GDP? That would imply the economy accelerated and clearly that has not happened. In other words just as Q1 2008 was eventually shown as the start of the great recession so will Q2 2011 in subsequent revisions.
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Sunday, July 31, 2011
U.S. Real GDP Revisions Indicate Economy Still in Recovery Phase / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 1.3% in the second quarter after a downwardly revised 0.4% increase in the first quarter (previously estimated to have increased 1.9%). From a year ago, real GDP advanced only 1.6%, the smallest increase in the current recovery.
Friday, July 29, 2011
U.S. Debt Default or Credit Ratings Downgrade Could Crush the Global Economy / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes:
If there's a "worst-case scenario" for this whole debt-ceiling debacle, this is it.
After studying everything that could happen due to a downgrade of the United States' top-tier AAA credit rating, and the potential default on its debt, we found a scenario that would result in forced asset sales that are so widespread that global stock-and-bond markets would plunge - and economies around the world would crash.
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