Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, March 14, 2011
A Good Looking Economy is Not Always a Good Economy / Economics / Austrailia
By: Gerard_Jackson
It is said that many look enviously upon the Australian economy's success in not only weathering the global financial crisis but to continue to prosper. Of course, there is no gainsaying the role that the resources sector played in providing the country with a vital economic buffer. But is everything as rosy as many seem to think, including some of our Treasury boffins?
Sunday, March 13, 2011
U.S. Economy on Steroids, Poverty Levels Equal to the 1930s / Economics / US Economy
By: Bob_Chapman
Wall Street at least temporarily relieved of the burden of having to buy Treasuries & Agency bonds, is looking at the jump in oil prices as nothing more than an irritant to their plans for a higher market. Bill Dudley of the NY Fed, a most powerful member, continues to make a vigorous defense of Federal Reserve policies. He, and a few other Fed participants, and Chairman Bernanke believe liquidity is the key for solving problems. That is not only in the realm of debt purchases, but in the relief it brings to Wall Street and banking. It relieves them of the responsibility of having to make those purchases to assist the Fed.
Saturday, March 12, 2011
Inflation and Hyperinflation in the United States / Economics / Inflation
By: John_Mauldin
A Dose of Inflation
The Characteristics of Hyperinflations
The Problems of Inflation
Hyperinflation in the United States?
Bankruptcies of governments have, on the whole, done less harm to mankind than their ability to raise loans. -- R. H. Tawney, Religion and the Rise of Capitalism, 1926
By a continuing process of inflation, government can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. -- John Maynard Keynes, Economic Consequences of Peace
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Friday, March 11, 2011
Higher Crude Oil Prices Pouring Profits into Venezuela's Economy / Economics / Emerging Markets
By: Money_Morning
Kerri Shannon writes:
Libya turmoil continued this week as Col. Moammar Gadhafi's troops tried to chase rebel forces out of cities housing key oil facilities. The pro-government regime wants to regain cities with oil operations, many of which rebels took over in the first days of fighting.
Attacks Wednesday also destroyed one oil facility's diesel oil storage tank and pipeline. Shukri Ghanem, Libya's de facto oil minister and the chairman of Libya's National Oil Corp., said no major oil installations were damaged in the explosion, but the fighting has disrupted a number of oil and natural gas facilities around the country.
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Friday, March 11, 2011
U.S. Jobless Claims, Too Soon to Question if Decline Represents Reversal of Trend / Economics / Unemployment
By: Asha_Bangalore
Initial jobless claims rose 26,000 to 397,000 during the week ended March 5. The Labor Department noted that President's Day holiday in the prior week could have moved claims into the latest weekly count. The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims offers an alternative in the event of temporary distortions.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, March 11, 2011
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens in January / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The trade deficit of the U.S. economy widened to $46.3 billion in January from $40.3 billion in the prior month. Exports of goods and services advanced 2.7% in January, while imports of goods and services also grew 5.2%. Imports of both petroleum (+3.7%) and non-petroleum products (+4.2%) items rose in January. If this trend continues in February and March, the trade deficit would cutback real GDP growth noticeably.
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Friday, March 11, 2011
U.S. Households Net Worth Advances, Outstanding Debt Declines / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Household net worth rose to $56.82 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2010, a 3.9% increase from the third quarter (or $2.1 trillion increase). Net worth of household has risen 16.6% from the first quarter of 2009 (the recent low, see Chart 1). Households lost 26% of their net worth between the second quarter of 2007 and first quarter of 2009, the largest loss in the post-war period. In the fourth quarter, households experienced gains in equity holdings that more than offset the loss from real estate.
Friday, March 11, 2011
Free Trade Theory Known to be Wrong—Since 1817! / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Ian_Fletcher
The economic argument for free trade is ultimately based on the theory of comparative advantage, invented by David Ricardo in 1817. Ricardo was a London stockbroker, self-made millionaire, and Member of Parliament who became a self-taught economist.
Thursday, March 10, 2011
Signs of Impending Doom for Global Economy 2011 / Economics / Global Economy
By: Chris_Kitze
End of the American Dream writes: If you are not aware of how rapidly the global economic situation is unraveling you need to snap out of it and start paying attention. The world economy was relatively stable in 2010, but here in 2011 things are deteriorating very quickly. Right now there is major civil unrest in at least a dozen different nations in Africa and the Middle East. The civil war going on in Libya has sent the price of oil skyrocketing and the protests that are scheduled to begin in Saudi Arabia later this month could send oil prices even higher.
Wednesday, March 09, 2011
Global Currency War Flash Points in the Middle East 'Age of Rage' / Economics / Middle East
By: Gordon_T_Long
The conflict in North Africa was a predictable outcome of the US Monetary Policy of Quantitative Easing. It is not plausible that the US Federal Reserve, as the manager of the world's Reserve Currency, did not fully recognize the global ramifications of such monetary inflation actions well in advance. Quantitative Easing like the Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBM) of the cold war era has had the same devastating pre-emptive impact on Libya.
Tuesday, March 08, 2011
The Crude Oil Economic Booby Trap / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Whitney
Rising oil prices threaten to derail the recovery. Oil at $106 per barrel (Monday's price) is not a problem, but oil at $160 is. With fighting increasing in Libya and social unrest spreading across the Middle East, no one knows where prices will settle. That leaves Fed chairman Ben Bernanke with a tough decision. Should he call off QE2 prematurely and let the stock market drift sideways or go-til-June and hope for the best? If the Fed tightens too early, deflationary pressures will reemerge further straining bank balance sheets and consumer spending. Housing prices will fall sharply and foreclosures will mushroom. But if Bernanke holds-firm with his zero rates and bond buying program--especially when the ECB is raising rates--he could trigger a bond market rout and send the dollar into freefall.
Tuesday, March 08, 2011
Debt, Inflation and Global Economy Systemic Risks, The ZIRP Trap / Economics / Global Economy
By: John_Mauldin
I get a lot of client letters from various managers and funds, as you might imagine. I read more than I should. But one that shows up every quarter or so makes me stop what I am doing and sit down and read. It is the quarterly letter from Hayman Advisors, based here in Dallas. They are macro guys (which I guess is part of the magnetic attraction for me), and they really put some thought into their craft and have some of the best sources anywhere. So today we take a look at their latest letter, where they cover a wide variety of topics, with cutting-edge analysis and sharp insight. I really like these guys, and suggest you take the time to read the entire letter.#
Tuesday, March 08, 2011
U.S. Consumer Borrowing Posts Fourth Monthly Gain / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Asha_Bangalore
Consumer borrowing advanced at an annual rate of 2.5% in January, the fourth consecutive monthly increase after posting declines during each month in the October 2008 - August 2010 and holding steady in September 2010. Of the two main components of consumer credit, revolving credit (credit card borrowing) fell 6.4% in January but non-revolving credit (borrowing for cars, vacations, durable goods, and other purposes) advanced at an annual rate of 6.9% (see Chart 4).
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Monday, March 07, 2011
How Wisconsin Can Turn Economic Austerity into Prosperity / Economics / Economic Austerity
By: Ellen_Brown
As states struggle to meet their budgets, public pensions are on the chopping block; but they needn’t be. States can keep their pension funds intact and leverage them into many times that sum in loans, just as Wall Street banks do. They can do this by forming their own banks, following the lead of North Dakota, the only state either to have its own bank or to have a major budget surplus.
Monday, March 07, 2011
Hidden Inflation: Rising Prices Are Hitting Consumers Harder Than the Fed Will Admit / Economics / Inflation
By: Money_Morning
Kerri Shannon writes: Any U.S. consumer that goes to the grocery store or the gas station on a regular basis knows that prices are rising.
Unfortunately, those rising prices are set to soar even higher - and their effects on consumers will continue to be ignored by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
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Monday, March 07, 2011
Rick Santelli Needs Austrian Economics to Refute Insufferable Keynesians / Economics / Economic Theory
By: LewRockwell
Mark R. Crovelli writes: In the world of financial "journalism," CNBC’s Rick Santelli stands out as a refreshing and intelligent antidote to the hoards of perma-bulls, fed apologists, and chart sorcerers that otherwise pollute the financial airwaves. Apart from his wonderfully energetic and quirky manner of speaking, and apart from his fantastic last name, Santelli is never afraid to challenge economists, Fed officials, and other mainstream talking heads. Talking points that are taken for granted or left unchallenged by Santelli’s mind-numbing colleagues are passionately attacked by the bond-tracking Italian dervish.
Monday, March 07, 2011
Is QE2 an Unmitigated Disaster? / Economics / Quantitative Easing
By: Dian_L_Chu
There was a debate recently between Rick Santelli of CNBC and James Bullard, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis regarding the inflation effects of the QE2 initiative.
Monday, March 07, 2011
Hyperinflationary Deluge Is Imminent / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Submissions
Tyler Durden writes: A deluge of an unprecedented magnitude is both inevitable and imminent. The consequences of the economic and political mismanagement will have a devastating impact on the world for a very long time. And the consequences will touch most corners of the world in so many different areas; economic, financial, social, political and geopolitical. The adjustment that the world will undergo in the next decade or longer, will be of such colossal magnitude that life will be very different for coming generations compared to the current social, financial and moral decadence. But history always gives us lessons and the one that is coming will be necessary and eventually good for the world. But the transition and adjustment will be extremely traumatic for most of us.
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Sunday, March 06, 2011
More U.S. Jobs Mirage / Economics / Employment
By: Paul_Craig_Roberts
The announcement on March 4 that 192,000 new jobs were created in February was greeted with a sigh of relief. But the number is just more smoke and mirrors, as I will show shortly. First, let’s pretend the jobs are real. What areas of the economy produced the jobs?
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Saturday, March 05, 2011
The Fed's Promise of Inflation Means More Unemployment... / Economics / Inflation
By: Bob_Chapman
The Federal Reserve tells us we need inflation to overcome the overhang created by debt and its inflationary aspects. The inflation does not create jobs – it just distorts prices upward. We are told by the head of the Fed, Mr. Bernanke, that he can end inflation when he thinks it is necessary. That is not true, because if inflation ends deflation takes command and the economy collapses. There is no finely honed instrument for turning these two opposite effects on and off; thus, inflationary instruments have to be blunt and overused. That means more often than not that inflation is over implemented. This is the opposite of the Fed’s mandate of promoting price stability, full employment and in fact is used to prop up the banking system.