Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, July 10, 2011
Has the 120-year Inflation Deflation Cycle Bottomed Early? / Economics / US Economy
By: Clif_Droke
In light of the impressive equities market rally from 2009 through 2011, some are wondering if perhaps the economic long wave has bottomed early. I recently received an email asking a question that is relevant to our discussion. He writes, "Suppose the big 120-year cycle hit a few years early, which for a cycle this long would certainly be possible. Perhaps the March 2009 low was the deflationary 120-year cycle low point, and the bull market just carries on for several more years. Is this possible?"
Sunday, July 10, 2011
Abysmal June Employment Figures Warn of Great Depression Ahead / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Robert_McHugh_PhD
The June Jobs numbers were horrendous, just like May's were, telling us the QE2 strategy of the Fed has failed, and the Central Planners' policy to keep taxes high, and not significantly cut them or rebate them has failed. There is so much focus on making sure the rich get properly taxed that true economic stimulus is paralyzed. QE was false economic stimulus. Trillions of new dollars were printed, however there was no effective delivery system in place to move that money to households, where the real economy begins. Wall Street got the cash, bid up the price of commodities with that cash, and inflation rose. That was about it.
Sunday, July 10, 2011
What Happened to the Jobs? So How's That Stimulus Thing Working Out? / Economics / Employment
By: John_Mauldin
The US jobs report came out this morning, and it was simply dismal. This week we look at not only the jobs report but also "what-if" proffers for the US and global economies. There's a lot to cover, so let's jump in.
First, there were only 18,000 jobs created in June, the lowest since September 2010. While private employment rose by 57,000, government workers dropped by 39,000, continuing a trend as governments at all levels work to cut their budgets. Long-time readers know I think it is important to look at the direction of the revisions, and we got no help. May was revised down by 29,000 jobs and April a further down 15,000.
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Saturday, July 09, 2011
U.S. June Jobs Report, Weak Labor Market Casts Shadow on Economic Growth / Economics / Employment
By: Asha_Bangalore
Civilian Unemployment Rate: 9.2% in June vs. 9.1% in May. Cycle high for recession is 10.1% in October 2009.
Payroll Employment: +18,000 in June vs. +25,000 in May. Private sector jobs increased 57,000 after a gain of 73,000 in May.
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Saturday, July 09, 2011
U.S. Jobs Report Rains On Soft Spot Hopes! / Economics / US Economy
By: Sy_Harding
The Labor Department’s employment report on Friday pretty much took the hope out of Washington and Wall Street’s expectations that the economic slowdown in the first half of the year was just a soft spot that will quickly be replaced by strong growth in the current quarter and second half.
The economy slowed to only 1.8% growth in the 1st quarter and economic reports have been even more dismal since, to say nothing of the Fed’s QE2 stimulus program having expired at the end of June.
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Friday, July 08, 2011
U.S. Payroll Stunner, Full "Pathetic" Jobs Report Analysis / Economics / Employment
By: Mike_Shedlock
Thoughts on the Jobs Report
Last month I commented things are awful at first glance and simply bad beneath the surface. This month things took a huge turn for the worse.
Three months ago I commented "It is very questionable if this pace of jobs keeps up." Clearly it didn't, for the second straight disastrous month. Certainly this cannot all be blamed on the Tsunami in Japan. The entire global economy is slowing rapidly as I have commented numerous times.
Friday, July 08, 2011
Warren Buffett on U.S. Housing Market, Employment, Economy and Debt / Economics / US Economy
By: Bloomberg
Warren Buffett spoke with Bloomberg Television's Betty Liu for an hour this morning from the annual Allen & Co. Sun Valley Conference in Idaho. Buffett commented on today's job numbers, saying to "bet very heavily" against a double-dip recession and that employment will gain "big time" on a housing recovery.
Friday, July 08, 2011
U.S. Employment Report, Do Not Overlook Government Hiring / Economics / Employment
By: Asha_Bangalore
The ADP National Employment Report is a private sector estimate of payroll employment published two days prior to the official report of the Bureau of Labor Statistics each month and it garners a great deal of market attention although it is not official data about employment.
Thursday, July 07, 2011
U.S. Payrolls, Keeping Things In Perspective / Economics / US Economy
By: Tony_Pallotta
The calls for an economic soft patch are growing louder in the face of the ADP print today above expectations. The 13 weeks of weekly claims above 400,000 is not being dismissed simply not discussed.
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Thursday, July 07, 2011
Zombie America, How it Happened / Economics / Quantitative Easing
By: Bill_Bonner
Americans had something to celebrate this Independence Day. QE2 – the Feds’ $600 billion money-printing program – ended on Friday. And guess what? The world didn’t end with it.
Instead, the stock market gave a loud “yahoo!” The Dow rose 168 points. If QE2 is going to be the death of the US economy, the stock market doesn’t see it.
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Thursday, July 07, 2011
Mixed Signals About U.S. Employment Conditions / Economics / Employment
By: Asha_Bangalore
The non-manufacturing ISM survey indicates a slowing of activity, the composite index declined to 53.3 from 54.6 in May. Readings above 50.0 denote an expansion of activity while those below 50.0 indicate a contraction of activity. The index measuring new orders (53.6 vs. 56.8 in May) fell, while the index tracking employment held nearly steady (54.1 vs. 54.0 in May, see Chart 2). The employment index of the manufacturing survey shows an increase (59.9 vs. 58.2 in May)
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Tuesday, July 05, 2011
U.S. June Employment Report Preview / Economics / Employment
By: Asha_Bangalore
The civilian unemployment rate of 9.1% and tepid growth in payroll employment (see Chart 1) after two years of economic growth remain a key concern. Chart 1 is an indexed chart where the level of employment in June 2009 (the end of the recession) is set equal to 100. Private sector payroll employment has risen past the level seen when the recovery commenced (100.91 in May 2011). The key contributions are from private sector services and factory employment. Government employment (excluding the spike related to temporary hiring for Census 2010) stands close to levels seen in 2007.
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Tuesday, July 05, 2011
The Chinese Black Swan / Economics / China Economy
By: Vitaliy_Katsenelson
Party rulers in China are trapped in a position that chess players deeply fear — zugzwang — where any move made puts you at disadvantage. In China, the potential cost of both action and inaction is economic collapse.
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Tuesday, July 05, 2011
Post Nuclear Japan: Atomic Debt / Economics / Japan Economy
By: Andrew_McKillop
Electricity cuts and rationing in Japan as it very carefully thinks about the dangers of getting all 49 of its remaining nuclear reactors back up to full charge, and tests all the way before doing it, can be used by nuclear apologists as a "We told you so !" proof that we need nuclear power. But in fact Japan faces things a lot more difficult and challenging, even, than taking a leaf out of Germany and Switzerland's books and starting a total nuclear exit strategy.
Monday, July 04, 2011
Turkey Economy Now Growing Faster than China / Economics / Emerging Markets
By: Trader_Mark
While all the focus is usually on the big emerging (or emerged) markets such as those who are members of BRIC, there are quite a few other interesting stories out there such as Chile, Indonesia, and Turkey. [July 6, 2010: Turkey - Where East Meets West, and Prospects are Improving] While there are relatively limited choices to invest in these countries, they are certainly part of a secondary group of locales that are helping to boost the fortunes of U.S. multinationals.
Monday, July 04, 2011
College Graduates: Too Many in China, Not Enough in America? / Economics / Education
By: EconMatters
"They share every similarity with ants. They live in colonies in cramped areas. They're intelligent and hardworking, yet anonymous and underpaid." ~ Lian Si, Author of “Ant Tribe”
"Ant Tribes" (蟻族), a term coined by sociologist Lian Si, a professor who wrote a book with that title in 2009, broadly describes China’s post-80s generation of "low-income college graduates who live together in communities with poor living standards.”
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Monday, July 04, 2011
Small Business and the Jobless Economic Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Fred_Buzzeo
If we listen to most economists, we are told that the recession is over and we are in a period of recovery. In fact, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the official voice on this matter, tells us that the recovery began in June 2009.
Fortunately, most Americans focused on making a living see right through this illusion. For example, a recent New York Times/CBS poll indicates that Americans are becoming increasingly disillusioned with the performance of the US economy. An astonishing 70 percent of respondents said that the country is moving in the wrong direction.
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Saturday, July 02, 2011
U.S. Economy Half Year Review, We Should Be OK, Except... / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
We are halfway through the year, and what a ride it has been. Today I will share my thoughts on what the next six months could look like, and endeavor to keep it short and simple, as we have a holiday weekend. There will be more than a few charts. What does the end of QE2 mean? What can we expect from Europe? Is a commodity bubble getting ready to burst? Is it really a bubble? There is a lot to cover.
Saturday, July 02, 2011
The U.S. Economy Remains Mired In A Long-term Slump / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Mike_Whitney
"We have involved ourselves in a colossal muddle, having blundered in the control of a delicate machine, the working of which we do not understand." John Maynard Keynes
Black Tuesday. On October 29, 1929, the stock market crashed triggering the worst economic collapse in history, the Great Depression. Thousands of banks and businesses failed, shanty towns sprung up across the country, and 15 million Americans (25% of the workforce) lost their jobs. President Herbert Hoover, who believed the turmoil would be over in a matter of weeks, opposed providing aid to the needy and unemployed. He supported the same policies as his GOP heirs in Congress today who seek to deepen the present crisis by cutting unemployment benefits, slashing fiscal stimulus and balancing the budget on the backs of workers.
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Friday, July 01, 2011
United States: Initial Jobless Claims Stuck at an Elevated Level / Economics / Unemployment
By: Asha_Bangalore
Initial jobless claims fell 1,000 to 428,000 during the week ended June 25. The four-week moving average has held around 426,000 since the week ended May 26. Essentially, firms have been unwilling to increase their payrolls. Continuing claims, which lag initial claims by one week, fell 12,000 to 3.702 million. The four-week moving average of continuing claims has held almost steady since April 2011 (see Chart 1).Read full article... Read full article...