Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, May 11, 2011
U.S. Small Business Survey Highlights Continued Pessimism about Business Conditions / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Small Business Optimism Index declined to 91.2 in April from 91.9 in the prior month. More importantly, fewer firms had plans to increase capital expenditures in the next 3 to 6 months (21% vs. 24% in March) and the percentage of respondents indicating plans to increase payrolls held steady in April (2.0%).
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Wednesday, May 11, 2011
U.S. Rising Inflation Pressures, as Non Oil Import Prices Also Advance / Economics / Inflation
By: Asha_Bangalore
Rhetoric from the Fed has held that recent gains of commodity prices are "transitory." Economic data have been supportive of this stance. Core consumer prices are yet to show worrisome readings and inflation expectations remain anchored. Against this backdrop, new inflation reports will be tracked closely. The Consumer Price Index will be published on May 12; import prices were published this morning.
Tuesday, May 10, 2011
How Iceland Became Paperland / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: MISES
Andy Duncan writes: If you believe in a Creator, then you must acknowledge that He (or She) possesses an incredible sense of humor. Without this, how do you explain Iceland?
Fortunately for us, and particularly perhaps for the Irish, the Greeks, and the Portuguese, this deific challenge is detailed gloriously in the new book, Deep Freeze: Iceland's Economic Collapse, written by Professors Philipp Bagus and David Howden, which is freely downloadable for your Kindle or iBook pleasure via the Ludwig von Mises Institute.
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Tuesday, May 10, 2011
Does Unreal GDP Data Drive Our Economic Policy Choices? / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: John_Mauldin
I am back from Rob Arnott's conference in Laguna Beach, and I must confess that if I had attended it before I wrote last week's e-letter I might have had lower odds on the US political class solving the debt crisis, absent a real economic crisis forcing them to. There were several presentations that made the problems quite clear. It remains a tough issue.
Tuesday, May 10, 2011
U.S. Employment Data Analysis, Clues from Duration of the Work Week / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: Asha_Bangalore
Digging into the details of the April employment data, we found that the latest average weekly workweek numbers tell two different stories. The average workweek was 34.3 hours (see Chart 1) in April. The recent recession ended in June 2009 when workers logged in 33.7 hours; the increase in work hours is noteworthy. But the gain is still short of the longer average work week (34.6 hours) which prevailed at the onset of the recession in December 2007. These numbers suggest that employers will have the discretion to postpone employment because there is wiggle room to raise the number of hours worked before they will need to increase payrolls.
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Monday, May 09, 2011
The Upside-Down World of Modern Monetary Theory / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Robert_Murphy
Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) is a hip economic/financial paradigm apparently sweeping a world unsatisfied with mainstream economics. Over the past year, I have been hearing a growing number of people refer to MMT: either fans who think it blows up my Austrian views, or foes who think it deserves a full-scale critique.
Monday, May 09, 2011
What's the Real U.S. Unemployment Rate? / Economics / Unemployment
By: Mike_Shedlock
Every month the government posts the unemployment rate yet few know where the unemployment rate comes from, how it is determined, and the relationship between the unemployment rate and the monthly reported jobs total.
For a quick recap, the unemployment rate comes from a "Household Survey" while the reported headline jobs total comes from the "Establishment Survey". The former is a monthly phone survey, the latter is a sample of actual business employment.
Sunday, May 08, 2011
The Collapse of the American Standard of Living, Inflationary Depression / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Bob_Chapman
As the economy stumbles the American standard of living recedes. 44 million people are using food stamps and in one year that figure will be 60 million. Washington and Wall Street say, what me worry? Of course not they are the masters of the universe. We are 24 months into an inflationary depression and it still goes undiscovered. Who cares that the issuance of food stamps is up 80%, as long as the bonuses on Wall Street and in banking continue to flow and bureaucrats get higher and higher salaries and benefits? The high cost of health insurance, no longer affordable to most have increased and Medicaid users are up 17%, as the program costs increased 36%.
Sunday, May 08, 2011
U.S. Economy Endgame, Muddle Through or Debt Crisis? / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
This week I finish the two-part letter on the Endgame and give you my thoughts on the economy and how it all plays out over the next five years. This is the second part of a speech I gave last week at the Strategic Investment Conference in La Jolla. It is a rather bold forecast, and fraught with peril and likely errors, but that is my job here. Damn the torpedoes, etc. I must offer one large caveat! If the facts change so will my forecast, but this is the view into my very cloudy crystal ball as I see it today. As always, remember that those of us in the forecasting world are often wrong but seldom in doubt. Read accordingly.
Saturday, May 07, 2011
Global Economy, PMI, Employment Data and Monetary Policy Review / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: EconGrapher
This week we take a look at the Purchasing Manager Index data for the US and China. Then there's a review of the US employment report, before an overview of the employment data from New Zealand, we then wrap up with a review of some of the key monetary policy decisions over the past week.
Saturday, May 07, 2011
Jump in U.S. Payroll Employment Stands Out / Economics / Employment
By: Asha_Bangalore
Civilian Unemployment Rate: 9.0% in April vs. 8.8% in March. Cycle high for recession is 10.1% in October 2009.
Payroll Employment: +244,000 in April vs. +221,000 in March. Private sector jobs increased 268,000 after a gain of 231,000 in March. Revisions for February and March and February resulted in a net gain of 46,000 jobs in the economy.
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Saturday, May 07, 2011
Africa Investor Profit Opportunities / Economics / Africa
By: Richard_Mills
Little was known about Africa's interior so early map makers would often leave this region blank. Today's investors may be the equivalent of yesterdays mapmakers.
Africa is a continent of opportunity.
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Friday, May 06, 2011
The Great Myth of the Inflation Cure / Economics / Inflation
By: Douglas_French
Parents probably dream of sending their kid to the University of Chicago. Next to the Ivy League or Stanford, the Chicago school is near the top of the heap. Only 27 percent of applicants are admitted. To be among the roughly 15,000 means prestige and an education to build a lifetime on. The cost for tuition and fees: $39,381. Room and board is another $12,000 or so. Add books and other stuff, and the total Chicago-school experience costs $54,290 a year.
Friday, May 06, 2011
Don’t Be Fooled By The Jobs Report! / Economics / Employment
By: Sy_Harding
This was a week that confirmed that the economic recovery has stalled.
We knew from the previous week that economic growth (GDP) slowed to just 1.8% in the March quarter from 3.1% in the December quarter.
Friday, May 06, 2011
Weak U.S. Credit Growth Early Sign of a Double-Dip Recession? / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes:
In spite of five straight quarters of loosening lending standards and strong U.S. credit growth data, actual loan growth in the U.S. economy is dangerously anemic.
What isn't apparent to investors is that the reason first-quarter gross-domestic-product (GDP) growth fell to 1.8% from the fourth quarter's more robust 3.1% rate is that loans and leases - which accounted for as much as 51.2% of U.S. GDP as recently as 2008 - fell to 45% of GDP in March.
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Friday, May 06, 2011
What Hyperinflation Looks Like / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Washingtons_Blog
Sweeping up pengő banknotes. Hungary, 1946.
Friday, May 06, 2011
U.S. Economy Crippled / Economics / US Economy
By: Tony_Pallotta
Something happened in April that crippled the US economy. First it was the reports from four regional Fed manufacturing surveys showing a sharp slowdown in growth. Then weekly jobless claims began printing four handles each week with today's 474,000 on top of last week's 429,000. The real kicker was Wednesday's ISM Services that registered a very sharp drop off and now sits precariously close to contraction.
Friday, May 06, 2011
U.S. Economic Data to Ponder About Before the April Employment Report / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The April employment report is scheduled for publication Friday, May 6. An increase of 190,000 payroll jobs and a steady reading for the unemployment rate (8.8%) is our forecast. The consensus forecast is an increase of 200,000 jobs and an unchanged jobless rate. Nonfarm payrolls increased 216,000 in March, with the private sector accounting for a gain of 230,000 jobs. Private sector hiring has risen at an impressive clip in the February-March period (average of 235,000 jobs). Against this backdrop, the jobless claims numbers for the week ended April 30 were unexpected. Initial jobless claims rose 43,000 to 474,000 and the prior week's estimate was raised to 431,000 from 429,000.
Thursday, May 05, 2011
China's Economy Continues to Ascend But Watch Out for Speed Bumps, Investment Plays / Economics / China Economy
By: Money_Morning
Jason Simpkins writes:
Everyone knows that China's economy is hot. The only question is whether it may be a little too hot.
China posted yet another quarter of stellar economic growth in the first quarter of 2011, with its gross domestic product (GDP) growing 9.7%. However, analysts are worried about some of the side effects that have accompanied that growth- namely soaring inflation and the emergence of speculative bubbles.
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Thursday, May 05, 2011
Consumer Credit Could Launch Inflationary Spiral / Economics / Inflation
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
Recent comments from Walmart chief executive Mike Duke have investors on high alert. This time, though, the news spreads well beyond Walmart.
At a company event in New York, Duke reminded the crowd that retail is softening, “we’re seeing core consumers under a lot of pressure,” and later added that it was rising fuel costs, just another component of monetary inflation, that was driving the sales loss. Of particular interest to inflation watchers should be his comments that were mostly ignored.
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