Best Financial Markets Analysis Article At the beginning of September, following a significant bull run, a sharp sell-off produced a Key Reversal Week, heralding the end of the likely end of the bull phase and start of a medium term bear phase.

The Commodity Trader’s view

WEEKLY CHART - CONTINUATION:

The Key Reversal Week is clear – the risk is now to the downside.

Note how the old 19.73 2006 high exactly coincides with the 38.2% pullback level on the Oct chart below – some sort of support is likely at/above here.

DAILY CHART – OCT-09:

After the bull run failed at our Fibo projections the recent trading below the 23.6% pullback level and 21.22 21-Aug low provided a further bear signal/trigger.

As noted above, the 38.2% pullback coincides with the old 2006 high – a future support area.

S/term rallies are likely to be corrective/temporary only, ahead of another bear leg –first potential resistance lies at/below the 23.33 12-Aug high.

In the Commodity Trading Guide we are sellers on rallies, and currently favour the 23.00 area (ahead of that 23.33 high and a 61.8% bounce). Stops ideally will be around 25.00, just above 24.85 high. Partial profits targeted at 20.00, stops then tightening to cost to improve risk/reward. In the Mar contract this equates to 24.50 entry, 26.50 stop, 21.00 initial target.

Philip Allwright
John Lewis

Seven Days Ahead
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Mark Sturdy, John Lewis & Philip Allwright, write exclusively for Seven Days Ahead a regulated financial advisor selling professional-level technical and macro analysis and high-performing trade recommendations with detailed risk control for banks, hedge funds, and expert private investors around the world. Check out our subscriptions.

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Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

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