Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. TESLA! Cathy Wood ARK Funds Bubble BURSTS! - 12th May 21
2.Stock Market Entering Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast - 10th May 21
3.GOLD GDX, HUI Stocks - Will Paradise Turn into a Dystopia? - 11th May 21
4.Crypto Bubble Bursts! Nicehash Suspends Coinbase Withdrawals, Bitcoin, Ethereum Bear Market Begins - 16th May 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.Cathy Wood Ark Invest Funds Bubble BURSTS! ARKK, ARKG, Tesla Entering Severe Bear Market - 13th May 21
7.Stock Market - Should You Be In Cash Right Now? - 17th May 21
8.Gold to Benefit from Mounting US Debt Pile - 14th May 21
9.Coronavius Covid-19 in Italy in August 2019! - 13th May 21
10.How to Invest in HIGH RISK Tech Stocks for 2021 and Beyond - Part 2 of 2 - 18th May 21
Last 7 days
Virgin Media Fibre Broadband Installation - What to Expect, Quality of Wiring, Service etc. - 21st Jun 21
Feel the Inflationary Heartbeat - 21st Jun 21
The Green Superfuel That Could Disrupt Global Energy Markers - 21st Jun 21
How Binance SCAMs Crypto Traders with UP DOWN Coins, Futures, Options and Leverage - Don't Get Bogdanoffed! - 20th Jun 21
Smart Money Accumulating Physical Silver Ahead Of New Basel III Regulations And Price Explosion To $44 - 20th Jun 21
Rambling Fed Triggers Gold/Silver Correction: Are Investors Being Duped? - 20th Jun 21
Gold: The Fed Wreaked Havoc on the Precious Metals - 20th Jun 21
Investing in the Tulip Crypto Mania 2021 - 19th Jun 21
Here’s Why Historic US Housing Market Boom Can Continue - 19th Jun 21
Cryptos: What the "Bizarre" World of Non-Fungible Tokens May Be Signaling - 19th Jun 21
Hyperinflationary Expectations: Reflections on Cryptocurrency and the Markets - 19th Jun 21
Gold Prices Investors beat Central Banks and Jewelry, as having the most Impact - 18th Jun 21
Has the Dust Settled After Fed Day? Not Just Yet - 18th Jun 21
Gold Asks: Will the Economic Boom Continue? - 18th Jun 21
STABLE COINS PONZI Crypto SCAM WARNING! Iron Titan CRASH to ZERO! Exit USDT While You Can! - 18th Jun 21
FOMC Surprise Takeaways - 18th Jun 21
Youtube Upload Stuck at 0% QUICK FIXES Solutions Tutorial - 18th Jun 21
AI Stock Buying Levels, Ratings, Valuations Video - 18th Jun 21
AI Stock Buying Levels, Ratings, Valuations and Trend Analysis into Market Correction - 17th Jun 21
Stocks, Gold, Silver Markets Inflation Tipping Point - 17th Jun 21
Letting Yourself Relax with Activities That You Might Not Have Considered - 17th Jun 21
RAMPANT MONEY PRINTING INFLATION BIG PICTURE! - 16th Jun 21
The Federal Reserve and Inflation - 16th Jun 21
Inflation Soars 5%! Will Gold Skyrocket? - 16th Jun 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Inflation Is For Fools - 16th Jun 21
Four News Events That Could Drive Gold Bullion Demand - 16th Jun 21
5 ways that crypto is changing the face of online casinos - 16th Jun 21
Transitory Inflation Debate - 15th Jun 21
USDX: The Cleanest Shirt Among the Dirty Laundry - 15th Jun 21
Inflation and Stock Market SPX Record Highs. PPI, FOMC Meeting in Focus - 15th Jun 21
Stock Market SPX 4310 Right Around the Corner! - 15th Jun 21
AI Stocks Strength vs Weakness - Why Selling Google or Facebook is a Big Mistake! - 14th Jun 21
The Bitcoin Crime Wave Hits - 14th Jun 21
Gold Time for Consolidation and Lower Volatility - 14th Jun 21
More Banks & Investors Are NOT Believing Fed Propaganda - 14th Jun 21
Market Inflation Bets – Squaring or Not - 14th Jun 21
Is Gold Really an Inflation Hedge? - 14th Jun 21
The FED Holds the Market. How Long Will It Last? - 14th Jun 21
Coinbase vs Binance for Bitcoin, Ethereum Crypto Trading & Investing During Bear Market 2021 - 11th Jun 21
Gold Price $4000 – Insurance, A Hedge, An Investment - 11th Jun 21
What Drives Gold Prices? (Don't Say "the Fed!") - 11th Jun 21
Why You Need to Buy and Hold Gold Now - 11th Jun 21
Big Pharma Is Back! Biotech Skyrockets On Biogen’s New Alzheimer Drug Approval - 11th Jun 21
Top 5 AI Tech Stocks Trend Analysis, Buying Levels, Ratings and Valuations - 10th Jun 21
Gold’s Inflation Utility - 10th Jun 21
The Fuel Of The Future That’s 9 Times More Efficient Than Lithium - 10th Jun 21
Challenges facing the law industry in 2021 - 10th Jun 21
SELL USDT Tether Before Ponzi Scheme Implodes Triggering 90% Bitcoin CRASH in Cryptos Lehman Bros - 9th Jun 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Prepare For Volatility - 9th Jun 21
Gold Mining Stocks: Which Door Will Investors Choose? - 9th Jun 21
Fed ‘Taper’ Talk Is Back: Will a Tantrum Follow? - 9th Jun 21
Scientists Discover New Renewable Fuel 3 Times More Powerful Than Gasoline - 9th Jun 21
How do I Choose an Online Trading Broker? - 9th Jun 21
Fed’s Tools are Broken - 8th Jun 21
Stock Market Approaching an Intermediate peak! - 8th Jun 21
Could This Household Chemical Become The Superfuel Of The Future? - 8th Jun 21
The Return of Inflation. Can Gold Withstand the Dark Side? - 7th Jun 21
Why "Trouble is Brewing" for the U.S. Housing Market - 7th Jun 21
Stock Market Volatility Crash Course (VIX vs VVIX) – Learn How to Profit From Volatility - 7th Jun 21
Computer Vision Is Like Investing in the Internet in the ‘90s - 7th Jun 21
MAPLINS - Sheffield Down Memory Lane, Before the Shop Closed its Doors for the Last Time - 7th Jun 21
Wire Brush vs Block Paving Driveway Weeds - How Much Work, Nest Way to Kill Weeds? - 7th Jun 21
When Markets Get Scared and Reverse - 7th Jun 21
Is A New Superfuel About To Take Over Energy Markets? - 7th Jun 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Gold and Silver Plunge, The Final Part of The Downswing?

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010 Jan 21, 2010 - 02:20 PM GMT

By: Przemyslaw_Radomski

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAlthough the picture this past year has been bleak, there are plenty of bright spots around the world.  We touched on this point in one of our recent essays, and we would like to elaborate further. In economic terms, this decade was very kind to countries like China, India, Brazil and Indonesia.  If you exclude the U.S., they also happen to be the four most populous nations in the world (The U.S. ranks third.) Together, they account for more than 40 per cent of the world’s population. All four countries have made remarkable progress this decade in terms of economic growth and standards of living.


In any given year, an extra percentage point of economic growth may not seem like such a big deal.  However, if taken over a longer period of time, the difference between an annual growth of 1 percent and 2 percent will determine whether the standard of living is doubled every 35 years, or every 70 years. A 5 percent annual economic growth means that living standards will double about every 14 years. By the way, the above calculations can be easily approximated by the "rule of 70" which says that if you want to know how many years it takes for the GDP to double you take 70 and divide it by the growth rate (in percentage terms), for instance 2 percent growth means doubling the GDP in 35 years, as 70 / 2 = 35. Although this may sound complicated, the true calculations behind this rule of thumb are not that complex - you will find more information here.

Moving back to the regular part of the commentary, Indonesia had solid economic growth during the entire decade, mostly in the 5 to 6 percent range annually. Brazil also had a good decade, with growth at times exceeding 5 percent a year.  China and India have made extraordinary strides.

It seems that the US is losing its privileged place in the world, taking a step backwards, while some of these countries, especially China, are taking a giant leap forward. It was White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel who said about a year ago: “you never want a serious crisis to go to waste.”  He was on to something. In some cases, the catalyst for setting these emerging powers on the road to economic reform and national resurgence was fiscal and foreign exchange crisis.

For example, in 1978 China was desperately short of cash and Deng Xiaoping was more willing to liberalize the Chinese economy with ideas that promised to deliver faster growth and higher revenues.

India embraced economic reform in 1991 when its government found itself with foreign reserves that were worth just two weeks’ worth of imports. The Indians had to send gold to London to secure an emergency loan from the International Monetary Fund. 

Manmohan Singh, then finance minister and now prime minister, urged his colleagues to “turn this crisis into an opportunity to build a new India”. The rest is history.

The wealthier that countries like China, India, Brazil, Russian and Indonesia will become, the more customers there will be for new innovations and products. Also, from our point of view, there will also be more customers clamoring for gold. The verdict is still out on how this past decade will be remembered in history. It all depends on where you lived.

Moving on to the technical part of this week's commentary, let's begin with gold, which has just moved considerably lower.

Analyzing the long-term chart before providing short-term details allows us to keep the proper perspective, and helps out to filter out the noise. This time, this approach lets us see that gold is still above its long-term trend line, and the history suggests that it will need to move below it before the bottom is put. Please note that it was the case during the March-April 2009 downswing and the June 2009 one - we have marked the analogous trend lines with black thick lines. Naturally, the question now is whether the bottom has been already put or not.

The above chart suggests that gold may need to move lower before rising once again. The Relative Strength Index is visibly above the 37-38 area, which confirms the above assumption. The same can be said about the Stochastic indicator - is it far from the blue horizontal line. If history is to repeat itself once again, the Stochastic indicator is likely to move below the 20 level and hit the blue line once again. Consequently, we will have a particularly favorite buying opportunity in the yellow metal.

The analysis of the silver market confirms points raised earlier - namely, the second stage of the correction appears to have just started.

The long-term picture did not change since last week. In the previous Premium Update we wrote the following:

The tendency for the silver to correct in more than one stage is even stronger for the white metal than it is for the yellow one, especially after big upswings. This has a lot to do with the fact that silver is generally more volatile than gold (…). The point here is that what we've seen up to date is most likely just a first part of the decline. We doubt that the second part would take us much below the recent low, but it appears likely that it will take some time (a week or a few of them) before the final bottom for this decline is put.

Please take a look at the situation in the Stochastic indicator. During past corrections it formed some kind of double-bottom, after which it rallied to/above the 80 level only to correct soon after that. This is where we are today - at the moment Stochastic indicator has just moved above the 80 level. Should the history repeat itself once again, silver may move lower soon.

Based on silver's performance during similar corrections, it currently seem that it may need to move lower - to the $16 level in the SLV ETF - before it moves higher once again.

Silver has indeed moved lower during this week, but it is still above $17, suggesting that the bottom has not been put yet. Short-term chart provides additional details as far as timing is concerned, but we will leave this part of the analysis to our Subscribers.

Summing up, the precious metals market has been moving rapidly lower in the past few days and it seems that PMs are close enough to the bottom to make long-term purchases right away. Please note that by buying now, you are definitely not buying at the top.

As far as the short-term is concerned, we believe that PMs may stop declining for a few days, because the previous bottom has just been reached (at the moment of writing these words), which provides short-term support. However, after a few days of pause, PMs may need to decline further before the final bottom is put. More detailed analysis (almost 4x bigger than this essay with many additional charts) is available to Members of the Premium Service.

To make sure that you are notified once the new features (like the newly introduced Free Charts section) are implemented, and get immediate access to my free thoughts on the market, including information not available publicly, I urge you to sign up for my free e-mail list. Sign up today and you'll also get free, 7-day access to the Premium Sections on my website, including valuable tools and charts dedicated to serious PM Investors and Speculators. It's free and you may unsubscribe at any time.

Thank you for reading. Have a great and profitable week!

Thank you for reading. Have a great and profitable week!

P. Radomski
Editor
Sunshine Profits

    Interested in increasing your profits in the PM sector? Want to know which stocks to buy? Would you like to improve your risk/reward ratio?

    Sunshine Profits provides professional support for precious metals Investors and Traders.

    Apart from weekly Premium Updates and quick Market Alerts, members of the Sunshine Profits’ Premium Service gain access to Charts, Tools and Key Principles sections. Click the following link to find out how many benefits this means to you. Naturally, you may browse the sample version and easily sing-up for a free trial to see if the Premium Service meets your expectations.

    All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Mr. Radomski and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Mr. Radomski and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above belong to Mr. Radomski or respective associates and are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Mr. Radomski does not recommend services, products, business or investment in any company mentioned in any of his essays or reports. Materials published above have been prepared for your private use and their sole purpose is to educate readers about various investments.

    By reading Mr. Radomski's essays or reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these essays or reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. We strongly advise that you consult a certified investment advisor and we encourage you to do your own research before making any investment decision. Mr. Radomski, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Przemyslaw Radomski Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in