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Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Cocoa Close to Confirming Negative Trend Phase

Commodities / Commodities Trading Jan 29, 2010 - 08:09 AM GMT

By: Seven_Days_Ahead

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA key reversal week in December put bears on the alert, following the 2009 recovery that saw a return to the 2008 peak. Doubts over the ability to sustain the higher levels have been strengthened by latest weakness, but we are still waiting for a break of key support.


The Commodity Specialist view


WEEKLY CHART – CONTINUATION:

The 2008 peak started to offer resistance in Oct-09 and in Dec a brief push higher was quickly followed by a Key Reversal Week, which could well mark the end of the latest bull run.

First main support on this chart comes from around the 2919 Feb-09 high.

DAILY CHART – MAR-10:

In the Commodity Specialist Guide, on the back of the key reversal week, we had thought any s/term strength would likely be temporary, with the 3510 Dec high marking a peak for the time being.

Further bear confirmation would now come from a break of the small channel base around 3200 and then the 3148 23.6% pullback level.

We may then focus on the area of the support that includes the 2924 38.2% level, 2857 Feb-09 high and 2800 Fibo projection.

In the Guide suggested shorts

at 3400 now have partial profits at 3200 with stops reduced to cost. The 2924/2800 area provides the next profit target.

Mark Sturdy
John Lewis

Seven Days Ahead
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Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

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