Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Stock Market January PANIC AI Tech Stocks Buying Opp - Trend Forecast 2022 - 21st Jan 21
How to Get Rich in the MetaVerse - 20th Jan 21
Should you Buy Payment Disruptor Stocks in 2022? - 20th Jan 21
2022 the Year of Smart devices, Electric Vehicles, and AI Startups - 20th Jan 21
Oil Markets More Animated by Geopolitics, Supply, and Demand - 20th Jan 21
Fake It Till You Make It: Will Silver’s Motto Work on Gold? - 19th Jan 22
Crude Oil Smashing Stocks - 19th Jan 22
US Stagflation: The Global Risk of 2022 - 19th Jan 22
Stock Market Trend Forecast Early 2022 - Tech Growth Value Stocks Rotation - 18th Jan 22
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Setting Up For A 'Mini-Crash'? - 18th Jan 22
Mobile Sports Betting is on a rise: Here’s why - 18th Jan 22
Exponential AI Stocks Mega-trend - 17th Jan 22
THE NEXT BITCOIN - 17th Jan 22
Gold Price Predictions for 2022 - 17th Jan 22
How Do Debt Relief Services Work To Reduce The Amount You Owe? - 17th Jan 22
RIVIAN IPO Illustrates We are in the Mother of all Stock Market Bubbles - 16th Jan 22
All Market Eyes on Copper - 16th Jan 22
The US Dollar Had a Slip-Up, but Gold Turned a Blind Eye to It - 16th Jan 22
A Stock Market Top for the Ages - 16th Jan 22
FREETRADE - Stock Investing Platform, the Good, Bad and Ugly Review, Free Shares, Cancelled Orders - 15th Jan 22
WD 14tb My Book External Drive Unboxing, Testing and Benchmark Performance Amazon Buy Review - 15th Jan 22
Toyland Ferris Wheel Birthday Fun at Gulliver's Rother Valley UK Theme Park 2022 - 15th Jan 22
What You Should Know About a TailoredPay High Risk Merchant Account - 15th Jan 22
Best Metaverse Tech Stocks Investing for 2022 and Beyond - 14th Jan 22
Gold Price Lagging Inflation - 14th Jan 22
Get Your Startup Idea Up And Running With These 7 Tips - 14th Jan 22
What Happens When Your Flight Gets Cancelled in the UK? - 14th Jan 22
How to Profit from 2022’s Biggest Trend Reversal - 11th Jan 22
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Ready To Drop To 4400SPX? - 11th Jan 22
What's the Role of an Affiliate Marketer? - 11th Jan 22
Essential Things To Know Before You Set Up A Limited Liability Company - 11th Jan 22
Fiscal and Monetary Cliffs Have Arrived - 10th Jan 22
The Meteoric Rise of Investing in Trading Cards - 10th Jan 22
IBM The REAL Quantum Metaverse STOCK! - 9th Jan 22
WARNING Failing NVME2 M2 SSD Drives Can Prevent Systems From Booting - Corsair MP600 - 9th Jan 22
The Fed’s inflated cake and a ‘quant’ of history - 9th Jan 22
NVME M2 SSD FAILURE WARNING Signs - Corsair MP600 1tb Drive - 9th Jan 22
Meadowhall Sheffield Christmas Lights 2021 Shopping - Before the Switch on - 9th Jan 22
How Does Insurance Work In Europe? Find Out Here - 9th Jan 22
Effect of Deflation On The Gold Price - 7th Jan 22
Stock Market 2022 Requires Different Strategies For Traders/Investors - 7th Jan 22
Old Man Winter Will Stimulate Natural Gas and Heating Oil Demand - 7th Jan 22
Is The Lazy Stock Market Bull Strategy Worth Considering? - 7th Jan 22
What Elliott Waves Show for Asia Pacific Stock and Financial Markets 2022 - 6th Jan 2022
Why You Should Register Your Company - 6th Jan 2022
4 Ways to Invest in Silver for 2022 - 6th Jan 2022
UNITY (U) - Metaverse Stock Analysis Investing for 2022 and Beyond - 5th Jan 2022
Stock Market Staving Off Risk-Off - 5th Jan 2022
Gold and Silver Still Hungover After New Year’s Eve - 5th Jan 2022
S&P 500 In an Uncharted Territory, But Is Sky the Limit? - 5th Jan 2022

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Too Much Bullish Stock Market Sentiment?

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010 Oct 15, 2010 - 01:42 PM GMT

By: Sy_Harding


Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe modern Fed has quite a history of blowing bubbles, and doing so even when it seems to be aware of what it’s doing.
Remember the dotcom bubble in 1999, and the stock market bubble in 2000?

In 1998, Fed Chairman Greenspan had already warned of ‘irrational exuberance’ in the stock market a year or two before. But the market had continued to rise into extreme overvalued levels by historical standards of price/earnings ratios and the like.

However, in the summer of 1998 the stock market was finally experiencing a correction, down more than 17%, the exuberance being cooled off.

Unfortunately, Asian countries had run into problems with their currencies, which hammered their economies. The problems spread to Latin American countries. Then giant hedge fund Long Term Capital Management collapsed due to big bets on Asian currencies, causing problems also for the large banks that had financed it. And the Fed seemed to panic. It swiftly initiated two dramatic rate cuts within two weeks of each other. The Fed’s explanation was that it did not think global economies could handle their problems if faced with a further stock market decline in the U.S., and their economic problems could spread to the U.S.

The result was that ‘irrational exuberance’ resumed, on expectations the Fed was going to provide additional economic stimulus via lower interest rates. And indeed, even though global economies and stock markets had recovered, the Fed did not reverse the rate cuts until June, 1999, and by then it was too late.

We know the results. The stock market had spiked up further into its bubble, then burst, and the severe 2000-2002 bear market was upon us.

Then, apparently, not realizing the economy was also about to enter a recession, the Fed continued to raise interest rates until May, 2000, and did not begin cutting rates to try to prevent a recession until January 3, 2001. It was again behind the curve. By then the recession was on us.

To pull the economy out of the 2001 recession, hampered also by the 911 terrorist attacks, the Fed cut interest rates a total of 13 times, not stopping until June of 2003, well after the economy was recovering, and the 2002-2007 bull market was underway.

By then that prolonged easy money policy had the real estate bubble forming. When it burst, the resulting recession of 2007-2009 was the worst since the Great Depression, and the 2007-2009 bear market was the worst since the 1930’s.

And here we are, with the Fed in another bind.

The 2007-2009 recession ended last June. The stock market soared up in an impressive new bull market from its low in March of last year.

The Fed has kept its easy money policy in effect, and yet the economic recovery stalled once other government stimulus programs expired in the spring.

The Fed would no doubt like to now be able to cut interest rates to re-stimulate the economy, but unfortunately has its Fed Funds rate already at zero, where it has been since December, 2008.

So it’s only remaining tool to re-stimulate the economy is to provide another round of so-called quantitative easing, in which it purchases treasury bonds in an effort to lower long-term interest rates, which are already at record lows, to even lower levels.

Economists have concerns about how well that would work to help the economy. The economy’s problems at this point don’t seem to be the level of interest rates, but the lack of jobs, dismal consumer confidence, and the unwillingness of banks to make loans.

However, just the anticipation of additional quantitative easing and still lower long-term interest rates has already potentially begun to pump up the next bubbles, as investors have moved out the risk curve in an effort to find higher rates of return. Money has been flowing at a dramatic pace into high-yield junk bonds, commodities, and gold. And the stock market has surged up 12% just since its August low when talk of another round of quantitative easing began. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar has been trashed further on expectations that the Fed will be ‘printing’ more dollars to finance another round of quantitative easing. The dollar’s decline threatens a ‘currency war’ with other nations concerned about the negative effect of a weak dollar on their economies.

It’s another tough spot for the Fed to be in.

Exacerbate the new bubbles that will again be problems down the road, and trash the dollar further, or allow the economy to adjust itself with another recession that deflates the prices of assets down to levels that would be self-sustaining.

It’s a no-brainer. Blow another bubble and worry about the consequences down the road.

But yet in his speech Friday morning Fed Chairman Bernanke did not go all in on quantitative easing, stopping short of announcing a new policy, saying only that the Fed contemplates doing more, but “will take into account the potential costs and risks.”

So uncertainty remains for a market that has probably already factored in a substantial new round of stimulus.

Sy Harding is president of Asset Management Research Corp, publishers of the financial website, and the free daily market blog,

© 2010 Copyright Sy Harding- All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in