Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Cathy Wood Ark Invest Funds Bubble BURSTS! ARKK, ARKG, Tesla Entering Severe Bear Market - 13th May 21
How Much CHIA Coins Profit from 100 Plot 10tb Farm? Hard Drive Space Mining - 13th May 21
Stock Market Bulls Getting Caught in the Whirlwind - 13th May 21
Legoland Windsor Mini land and Sky Train Virtual Tour in VR 360 - UK London Holidays 2021 - 13th May 21
Peak Growth and Inflation - 13th May 21
Where’s The Fed? Watch Precious Metals For Signs Of Inflation Panic - 13th May 21
Coronavius Covid-19 in Italy in August 2019! - 13th May 21
India Covid Apocalypse Heralds Catastrophe for Pakistan and Bangladesh - 13th May 21
TESLA! Cathy Wood ARK Funds Bubble BURSTS! - 12th May 21
Gold Price During Hyperinflation - 12th May 21
Stock Market Extending Phase Two? - 12th May 21
Crypto 101 for new traders – ETH or BTC? - 12th May 21
Stock Market Enters Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast Time Window - 11th May 21
GOLD GDX, HUI Stocks - Will Paradise Turn into a Dystopia? - 11th May 21
Cathy Wood Bubble Bursts as ARK Funds CRASH! Enter into a Severe Bear Market - 11th May 21
Apply This Technique to Stop Rushing into Trades - 10th May 21
Stock Market Entering Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast - 10th May 21
CHIA Getting Started SSD Crypto Mining by Plotting and Farming on Your Hard Drives Guide - 9th May 21
Yaheetech Mesh Best Cheap Computer /. Gaming Chairs on Amazon Review - 9th May 21
Breaking US Trade Embargo with Cuba - Build 7 Computers in 14 Hours Before Ship Sales Challenge - 9th May 21
Dripcoin Applies New Technology That Provides Faster Order Execution - 9th May 21
Capital Gains Tax Hike News: Was It REALLY to Blame for Sell-off? - 7th May 21
Stock Market Transportation Index Continues To Grind Higher - 7th May 21
SPX Stock Market Correction Arriving or Not? - 7th May 21
How to Invest in an Online Casino? - 7th May 21
Gold & Silver Begin New Advancing Cycle Phase - 6th May 21
Vaccine Economic Boom and Bust - 6th May 21
USDX, Gold Miners: The Lion and the Jackals - 6th May 21
What If You Turn Off Your PC During Windows Update? Stuck on Automatic Repair Nightmare! - 6th May 21
4 Insurance Policies You Should Consider Buying - 6th May 21
Fed Taper Smoke and Mirrors - 5th May 21
Global Economic Recovery 2021 and the Dark Legacies of Smoot-Hawley - 5th May 21
Utility Stocks Continue To Rally – Sending A Warning Signal Yet? - 5th May 21
ROIMAX Trading Platform Review - 5th May 21
Gas and Electricity Price Trends so far in 2021 for the United Kingdom - 5th May 21
Crypto Bubble Mania Free Money GPU Mining With NiceHash Continues... - 4th May 21
Stock Market SPX Short-term Correction - 4th May 21
Gold & Silver Wait Their Turn to Ride the Inflationary Wave - 4th May 21
Gold Can’t Wait to Fall – Even Without USDX’s Help - 4th May 21
Stock Market Investor Psychology: Here are 2 Rare Traits Now on Display - 4th May 21
Sheffield Peoples Referendum May 6th Local Elections 2021 - Vote for Committee Decision's or Dictatorship - 4th May 21
AlphaLive Brings Out Latest Trading App for Android - 4th May 21
India Covid-19 Apocalypse Heralds Catastrophe for Pakistan & Bangladesh, Covid in Italy August 2019! - 3rd May 21
Why Ryzen PBO Overclock is Better than ALL Core Under Volting - 5950x, 5900x, 5800x, 5600x Despite Benchmarks - 3rd May 21
MMT: Medieval Monetary Theory - 3rd May 21
Magical Flowering Budgies Bird of Paradise Indoor Grape Vine Flying Fun in VR 3D 180 UK - 3rd May 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

The Gold Sleeper Trend You Need to Know About

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010 Dec 15, 2010 - 02:58 AM GMT

By: Casey_Research

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLouis James, Senior Editor, Casey’s International Speculator writes: In the midst of any long-term trend, like the secular bull market for metals we’re in now, there will be trends within the trends. You could think of them as being like eddies, whorls, and side-channels in a great torrent. We see one such developing that could benefit junior gold stock investors in the near- to mid-term.


Here’s the basic idea: metals prices, especially precious metals prices, have been increasing at a faster rate than mining costs. Gold and silver are up 75.9% and 61.7% respectively over the last three years, while the cost of things like power, equipment, and wages have not risen as much (-1.0% for oil, and 5.1% for wages, as examples). Obviously, this is good for producing companies, and we have seen the market’s reaction in their share prices.

What may not be so obvious is that companies with major, low-grade discoveries in hand that are preparing economic studies on their projects may enjoy a particular window of opportunity. Sometimes 300-day trailing averages are used to project prices used in estimating mining project economics, sometimes 3-year averages are used. In either case, the top line is going to look great, especially since many costs have risen little or even gone down as a result of the crash of 2008.

Here at Casey Research, we’re predicting more economic turmoil ahead, as the global economy exits the eye of the storm. As that happens, many costs could drop substantially, with economic activity in general. That would hurt the top line for base metal projects (copper, nickel, etc.), but would probably drive it even higher for gold projects (and silver ones that don’t rely too heavily on base metal credits).

For instance, Osisko Mining (T.OSK), one of the big winners among our recent speculations was able to take advantage of the crash of 2008 to greatly improve its cost projections, and even to order big-ticket items at lower prices and with shorter wait periods. This added wind in the company’s sails and helped them to wow the market and raise the capital needed to build their mine with no hedging and little debt.

Of course, margins will look better for all projects studied during a period when revenues are rising faster than costs, but that improvement will be an added benefit for high-margin operations, whereas it could be the difference between life and death for lower-margin operations.

In other words, known large, low-grade deposits are being discounted because the grades make their economic viability questionable – and that discount will seem overdone while mining margins are unusually high.

For example, a company called Geologix Explorations (T.GIX) has a large but low-grade deposit in Mexico. The project has been around for a while, not getting much love from mine analysts – myself included – because the low grade didn’t seem to promise robust economics. However, the company reported a preliminary economic assessment recently, with a startling 28% internal rate of return (IRR) at $900 gold, and a terrific 49% IRR at $1,200 gold. The net present value (NPV) -5% figure came in at $258 million at $900 gold ($555 million at $1,200 gold), which was about 650% of the company’s market capitalization at the time. The market responded, and the company’s stock chart now looks like a hockey stick.

Now, over the life of a large mine, which can be 15, 20, 30, or more years, I doubt margins like those that can be reported at this time will be maintained. Does that make IRRs and NPVs published over the next year or two lies? Not necessarily; if the economics are good enough, the project might be able to pay back the capital expenditures needed to build the mine while margins are high. After that, even a low-grade operation might be able to continue operating profitably for decades.

And it must be said that whether or not a low-grade projects actually becomes a mine, its owner’s share price may still soar, if the company reports credible, robust, and substantial economics.

In today’s frothy market, in which the obvious winners are all getting huge premiums from the market, it’s hard to find anything worthwhile selling cheap. Large projects trading at discounts because of their low grades – but with chances of delivering exceptionally strong numbers while this window of opportunity is open – are just what the doctor ordered. Be careful, however, to do your due diligence, as not all low-grade projects will have what it takes, even with higher metals prices.

[“Due diligence” is Louis James middle name. For years, has been picking the best small-cap metals juniors as the Metals Strategist at Casey Research… beating the S&P 500 by more than 8 times and physical gold by 3 times for his subscribers. For a very limited time, you can save $300 on the annual subscription fee for Casey’s International Speculator– plus receive Casey’s Energy Report FREE for a year! To learn more, click here now.]

© 2010 Copyright Casey Research - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in