Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. TESLA! Cathy Wood ARK Funds Bubble BURSTS! - 12th May 21
2.Stock Market Entering Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast - 10th May 21
3.GOLD GDX, HUI Stocks - Will Paradise Turn into a Dystopia? - 11th May 21
4.Crypto Bubble Bursts! Nicehash Suspends Coinbase Withdrawals, Bitcoin, Ethereum Bear Market Begins - 16th May 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.Cathy Wood Ark Invest Funds Bubble BURSTS! ARKK, ARKG, Tesla Entering Severe Bear Market - 13th May 21
7.Stock Market - Should You Be In Cash Right Now? - 17th May 21
8.Gold to Benefit from Mounting US Debt Pile - 14th May 21
9.Coronavius Covid-19 in Italy in August 2019! - 13th May 21
10.How to Invest in HIGH RISK Tech Stocks for 2021 and Beyond - Part 2 of 2 - 18th May 21
Last 7 days
Coinbase vs Binance for Bitcoin, Ethereum Crypto Trading & Investing During Bear Market 2021 - 11th Jun 21
Gold Price $4000 – Insurance, A Hedge, An Investment - 11th Jun 21
What Drives Gold Prices? (Don't Say "the Fed!") - 11th Jun 21
Why You Need to Buy and Hold Gold Now - 11th Jun 21
Big Pharma Is Back! Biotech Skyrockets On Biogen’s New Alzheimer Drug Approval - 11th Jun 21
Top 5 AI Tech Stocks Trend Analysis, Buying Levels, Ratings and Valuations - 10th Jun 21
Gold’s Inflation Utility - 10th Jun 21
The Fuel Of The Future That’s 9 Times More Efficient Than Lithium - 10th Jun 21
Challenges facing the law industry in 2021 - 10th Jun 21
SELL USDT Tether Before Ponzi Scheme Implodes Triggering 90% Bitcoin CRASH in Cryptos Lehman Bros - 9th Jun 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Prepare For Volatility - 9th Jun 21
Gold Mining Stocks: Which Door Will Investors Choose? - 9th Jun 21
Fed ‘Taper’ Talk Is Back: Will a Tantrum Follow? - 9th Jun 21
Scientists Discover New Renewable Fuel 3 Times More Powerful Than Gasoline - 9th Jun 21
How do I Choose an Online Trading Broker? - 9th Jun 21
Fed’s Tools are Broken - 8th Jun 21
Stock Market Approaching an Intermediate peak! - 8th Jun 21
Could This Household Chemical Become The Superfuel Of The Future? - 8th Jun 21
The Return of Inflation. Can Gold Withstand the Dark Side? - 7th Jun 21
Why "Trouble is Brewing" for the U.S. Housing Market - 7th Jun 21
Stock Market Volatility Crash Course (VIX vs VVIX) – Learn How to Profit From Volatility - 7th Jun 21
Computer Vision Is Like Investing in the Internet in the ‘90s - 7th Jun 21
MAPLINS - Sheffield Down Memory Lane, Before the Shop Closed its Doors for the Last Time - 7th Jun 21
Wire Brush vs Block Paving Driveway Weeds - How Much Work, Nest Way to Kill Weeds? - 7th Jun 21
When Markets Get Scared and Reverse - 7th Jun 21
Is A New Superfuel About To Take Over Energy Markets? - 7th Jun 21
Why Tether USDT, Stable Scam Coins Could COLLAPSE the Crypto Markets - Black Swan 2021 - 6th Jun 21
Stock Market: 4 Tips for Investing in Gold - 6th Jun 21
Apple (AAPL) Summer Correction Stock Trend Analysis - 5th Jun 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I 'Believe' We Rally Into A June Swoon - 5th Jun 21
Stock Market Russell 2000 After Reaching A Trend Channel High Flags Out - 5th Jun 21
Money Is Cheap, Own Gold - 5th Jun 21
Bitcoin and Ravencoin Cryptos CRASH Bear Market Buying Levels Price Targets - 4th Jun 21
Scan Computers - How to Test New Systems CPU, GPU and Hard Drive Stability With Free Software - 4th Jun 21
Hedge Funds Getting Bullish on Gold - 4th Jun 21
THERE ARE NO SOLUTIONS When the Media is the VIRUS - 4th Jun 21
Investors Who Blindly Trust the ‘Experts’ Will Get Left Behind - 4th Jun 21
US Stock Market Indexes Consolidate Into Flagging Pattern – Watch For Aggressive Trending Soon - 4th Jun 21
Microsoft (MSFT) Stock Trend Analysis - 3rd Jun 21
No More Market Bloodbath – Beyond Cryptos - 3rd Jun 21
Bank run, or run from the banks? - 3rd Jun 21
This Chart Shows When Gold Stocks Will Explode - 3rd Jun 21
The Meaning Behind Gold’s Triple Top - 2nd Jun 21
Stock Market Breakout Or Breakdown – What Does The Next Big Trend Look Like? - 2nd Jun 21
Biden’s Alternate Inflation Universe - 2nd Jun 21
What You Should Know Before Buying Car Insurance - 2nd Jun 21
Amazon (AMZN) Stock Summer Prime Day Discount Sale - 1st Jun 21
Gold Investor's Survival Guide - 1st Jun 21
Silver and Copper to Benefit from Global Electrification Push - 1st Jun 21
Will Gold Shine Under Bidenomics? - 1st Jun 21
Stock Market Buy the Dip, Again?! - 1st Jun 21
Stock Market Consolidation Ahead - 1st Jun 21
Stock Market Summer Correction Review, Crypto CRASH, Bitcoin Bear Market Initial Targets - 31st May 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

How Long Can the S&P 500, Precious Metals, & Bonds Rally?

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011 Jan 05, 2011 - 08:35 AM GMT

By: J_W_Jones

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn the fine print of most investment advertisements or in the softly spoken disclaimer at the end of a commercial, we generally read or hear the phrase “past results are not indicative of future performance”. While those exact words may not be written or uttered, something along those lines is found on almost any piece of investment literature or in investment product commercials.


In the 2nd half of 2009 all the way through 2010 a variety of asset classes performed quite well.
Investors who purchased stocks, gold or silver, and bonds anytime in 2009 were handsomely rewarded in 2010 if they held their positions. How long will these assets continue to perform well? How long can gold pump out double digit returns before suffering a bad year? How high can stocks climb when uncertainty seemingly surrounds the marketplace? Price action is never wrong, but history reminds us that a particular asset class does not outperform all other asset classes consistently over long periods of time. Trees do not grow to the sky.

Since 2009 stocks, precious metals, and bonds have all had tremendous performance records. Most economists point to actions by the Federal Reserve as the primary reason because these interventions lowered interest rates to extremely low levels which caused investors to take more risk for better returns. High levels of liquidity paired with low interest rates moved nearly every asset class higher, with stocks and precious metals earning outstanding year over year returns.

With 2011 just starting, will stocks, bonds, and precious metals continue rallying? When looking at probabilities and statistics the odds are not favorable that all 3 asset classes will remain outstanding investments. In fact, it is possible and arguably likely that at least one of the asset classes if not more than one will face headwinds in 2011 and beyond. While Tuesday was only the second day of 2011, precious metals are under significant pressure and the fundamental picture for bonds and stocks is uncertain.

S&P 500

Stocks are overbought currently on nearly every time frame. Some pundits are calling for another outstanding year while others believe a correction is likely to unfold. I for one am totally unsure about the future, but what I am certain of is that I would be cautious at this current juncture in time. I would not be afraid to take profits and adjust stops to protect my trading and investment capital at these levels. Risk seems excruciatingly high and when we look at a longer term chart of the S&P 500 it is rather easy to surmise that a pullback may take place.

Precious Metals
If price action yesterday is any indication of what may be in store for gold and silver investors a nasty correction or pullback may be likely. I have been warning about the possibility of such an event and as usual have received countless emails and even some veiled threats. Gold may go up for years, but most assets do not trade straight up. Price ebbs and flows with the marketplace and buyers and sellers come together in the process of price discovery.

If this is the start of a correction in gold, a potentially outstanding purchasing opportunity is possible for patient traders and investors. While the gold bugs fill up my email inbox with hate mail, I wait patiently to enter at lower prices while they remain in denial. The daily charts of gold and silver futures below illustrate key support levels which would likely offer solid risk / reward entries.

Gold Futures Daily Chart



Silver Futures Daily Chart


Bonds

For most traders and investors that started their careers in the 1980's, they have witnessed a bull market in bonds as yields went from double digits to the lowest interest rates in history over the past 20-30 years. New all time records could be set in the future, but strong fundamental headwinds exist. Overexposure to bonds could prove dangerous and diversification regarding duration, currency exposure, and geography remains paramount.

Many pundits and economists are showing considerable concern with regards to municipal and treasury bonds. Defaults are being discussed openly in the municipal space and there is additional concern that interest rates could continue to rise on U.S. Treasury obligations against the Federal Reserve's wishes. Both scenarios are not pleasant and certainly would impact bond pricing. Municipals have been under pressure which is evident from the daily chart of MUB shown below. Additionally I have displayed a weekly TLT chart with additional technical analysis.

MUB Daily Chart

TLT Weekly Chart



I have no idea what is going to happen over the next 12 months in financial markets. What I do know is that equities, precious metals, and bonds have been providing outstanding returns for over a year. While I realize that there are fundamental and technical drivers  impacting the price action, I would be remiss if I did not remind traders and investors that taking profits is never a bad strategy. While all three asset classes may power higher by the end of the year, at some point in 2011 it is possible that all three asset classes may potentially go through a pullback. By taking profits, traders allow themselves the opportunity to put fresh capital to work at potentially lower prices sometime in the future.

A patient trader who uses fresh capital to buy assets at lower prices compounds his/her returns while selling when prices are relatively high and buying when prices move lower. By no means am I saying to sell everything and move to cash, but when bullish sentiment is so pronounced and the price action looks extremely overbought, taking profits is something worth considering. At some point we know at least one of these asset classes will lag going forward simply because it has been working well for such a long time.

Statistical probability dictates that every month that passes with higher prices brings us closer to a correction or pullback. Those who are prudent and take profits while raising cash levels along the way will have capital to take advantage of lower prices. In addition to taking profits, investors should also consider moving stops and limiting their risk profile. There will always be new opportunities, but replenishing capital is seemingly harder by the day.

If you would like to continue learning about the hidden potential options trading can provide please join my FREE Newsletter: www.OptionsTradingSignals.com 

 J.W. Jones is an independent options trader using multiple forms of analysis to guide his option trading strategies. Jones has an extensive background in portfolio analysis and analytics as well as risk analysis. J.W. strives to reach traders that are missing opportunities trading options and commits to writing content which is not only educational, but entertaining as well. Regular readers will develop the knowledge and skills to trade options competently over time. Jones focuses on writing spreads in situations where risk is clearly defined and high potential returns can be realized. 

This article is intended solely for information purposes. The opinions are those of the author only. Please conduct further research and consult your financial advisor before making any investment/trading decision. No responsibility can be accepted for losses that may result as a consequence of trading on the basis of this analysis.  


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in