Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Peloton 35% CRASH a Lesson of What Happens When One Over Pays for a Loss Making Growth Stock - 1st Dec 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I Fear For Retirees For The Next 20 Years - 1st Dec 21 t
Will the Anointed Finanical Experts Get It Wrong Again? - 1st Dec 21
Main Differences Between the UK and Canadian Gaming Markets - 1st Dec 21
Bitcoin Price TRIGGER for Accumulating Into Alt Coins for 2022 Price Explosion - 30th Nov 21
Omicron Covid Wave 4 Impact on Financial Markets - 30th Nov 21
Can You Hear It? That’s the Crowd Booing Gold’s Downturn - 30th Nov 21
Economic and Market Impacts of Omicron Strain Covid 4th Wave - 30th Nov 21
Stock Market Historical Trends Suggest A Strengthening Bullish Trend In December - 30th Nov 21
Crypto Market Analysis: What Trading Will Look Like in 2022 for Novice and Veteran Traders? - 30th Nov 21
Best Stocks for Investing to Profit form the Metaverse and Get Rich - 29th Nov 21
Should You Invest In Real Estate In 2021? - 29th Nov 21
Silver Long-term Trend Analysis - 28th Nov 21
Silver Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 28th Nov 21
Crude Oil Didn’t Like Thanksgiving Turkey This Year - 28th Nov 21
Sheffield First Snow Winter 2021 - Snowballs and Snowmen Fun - 28th Nov 21
Stock Market Investing LESSON - Buying Value - 27th Nov 21
Corsair MP600 NVME M.2 SSD 66% Performance Loss After 6 Months of Use - Benchmark Tests - 27th Nov 21
Stock Maket Trading Lesson - How to REALLY Trade Markets - 26th Nov 21
SILVER Price Trend Analysis - 26th Nov 21
Federal Reserve Asks Americans to Eat Soy “Meat” for Thanksgiving - 26th Nov 21
Is the S&P 500 Topping or Just Consolidating? - 26th Nov 21
Is a Bigger Drop in Gold Price Just Around the Corner? - 26th Nov 21
Financial Stocks ETF Sector XLF Pullback Sets Up A New $43.60 Upside Target - 26th Nov 21
A Couple of Things to Think About Before Buying Shares - 25th Nov 21
UK Best Fixed Rate Tariff Deal is to NOT FIX Gas and Electric Energy Tariffs During Winter 2021-22 - 25th Nov 21
Stock Market Begins it's Year End Seasonal Santa Rally - 24th Nov 21
How Silver Can Conquer $50+ in 2022 - 24th Nov 21
Stock Market Betting on Hawkish Fed - 24th Nov 21
Stock Market Elliott Wave Trend Forecast - 24th Nov 21
Your once-a-year All-Access Financial Markets Analysis Pass - 24th Nov 21
Did Zillow’s $300 million flop prove me wrong? - 24th Nov 21
Now Malaysian Drivers Renew Their Kurnia Car Insurance Online With Fincrew.my - 24th Nov 21
Gold / Silver Ratio - 23rd Nov 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Can We Get To 5500SPX In 2022? But 4440SPX Comes First - 23rd Nov 21
A Month-to-month breakdown of how Much Money Individuals are Spending on Stocks - 23rd Nov 21
S&P 500: Rallying Tech Stocks vs. Plummeting Oil Stocks - 23rd Nov 21
Like the Latest Bond Flick, the US Dollar Has No Time to Die - 23rd Nov 21
Why BITCOIN NEW ALL TIME HIGH Changes EVERYTHING! - 22nd Nov 21
Cannabis ETF MJ Basing & Volatility Patterns - 22nd Nov 21
The Most Important Lesson Learned from this COVID Pandemic - 22nd Nov 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis - 22nd Nov 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Words of Wisdom - Stay the Course with Commodities

Commodities / Gold & Silver Mar 25, 2008 - 11:23 AM GMT

By: Dudley_Baker

Commodities Here's more from that subscriber of ours down in Argentina who we have dubbed 'Crazy Like a Fox' for his insights into the economy, financial markets and commodities and the way he has positioned himself in these troubled times to profit from those insights. Like his previous emails to us which we edited into articles ("Crazy Man's Rant - He's Crazy like a Fox", "A Crazy Man's Rant or Right On - You be the Judge", "Lighten up and Enjoy the Commodities Ride" and "Commodities are for 'Crafty' not 'Crazy' Investors) we have done the same with his latest which we received this past Thursday after the commodities debacle of Wednesday. If his previous 'emails' are any indication you will enjoy and prosper from what he has to say.


"Hey amigo, remain tranquilo, as they say here.  While I too don't like these past few days in terms of the markets and what has happened to commodities, nothing has changed with the fundamentals. Don't sell because there is nothing out there to improve your financial circumstances.  I remain totally committed to commodities generally and the precious metals and oil specifically.  Selected base metals, other energy and agriculture are also worth staying the course.  Whatever you do, don't allow yourself to be confused or worse, convinced, that this sector has seen its peak.

I repeat - it is most important to realize that nothing of consequence has changed with the fundamentals. The magnitude and scope of the current credit crisis remains unparalleled.  It is a mortgage, credit, liquidity, solvency issue based on much derivative slime which is leveraged up to 35 to 1 and which is highly subject to margin calls. That, in part, is what hits us in the commodities sector when the folks need to sell to meet a margin call. If that wasn't enough, the Wall Street investment banks frequently do their normal trick with short sellers and those long with trailing stops. That is just normal Wall Street tactics to slaughter the little guys and to pick up the pieces.  It is temporary and something that can't be used to alter the dominant trend.
 
What the Fed uses to buy time and to avoid an immediate meltdown is to print money at a rapidly increasing rate of about 14% annualized now as well as to reduce interest rates to below even the official rate of inflation. Last weekend with Bear Stearns they added the element of taking over the underpriced/overpriced derivative paper which is now owned by the taxpayer. If this formula continues to be applied in the future, you can count on a much further depreciated Greenback and much higher inflation and commodity prices. Given Fed chairman Bernanke's record and academic credentials, this is almost guaranteed to happen.
 
Therefore, please stay with your commodities and precious metals/oil specifically. You know that the 1980 peak price of gold was $850 which today using official, not real, inflation rates would be over $2,275.  Clearly gold under $1,000 today has a long way to go. Moreover, the gold/oil ratio is way out of whack in that either oil has to decline substantially or gold must appreciate dramatically to restore its traditional ratio/relationship. With no world currency of consequence currently backed in any way by gold today, you may be assured there is no discipline in the currency sector in terms of printing/creating more of it. When investors get scared they will reflexively revert to the only real money there is...gold.  Because there is so little of it, prices will skyrocket, especially once the little retail investor gets a sniff of it in its last parabolic price increase phase. That is when I exit.
 
This year 2008, we will have a bumpy economy which will continue that way until the elections on November 3rd. Politicians, including central bank Fed folk, will do their predictable best to have voters feel good until they cast their votes. This means those of us in the commodities sector will periodically wonder whether we are still on the correct course. No fear. All is well in that economic fundamentals have not improved. However, I predict that the period following the November 2008 elections through 2009 and 2010 will be the crisis phase. Much of the derivative sludge which we have begun to see remains hidden on the books of insurance companies, pension funds and other institutions not normally thought of as banks. When this slime emerges in stages ever so slowly during the two years ahead, there will be a rush to real value - commodities and real money...gold. 
 
I will continue to remain with my selected investments throughout the undulations of the markets for as long as I see charts which show me higher highs and higher lows. Only a breakdown on that front will cause me to alter course. We must continue to remind ourselves that the marketplace is always choppy and that there is no need to alter our carefully chosen course. To attempt selling high and buying low is a mugs game given the sophistication of the big institutions and brokerages who have all the tools and smart guys with their programmed computer trading. Stay the course and forget about trading because we can't win if we attempt to play with the big boys under their rules. If anything, you should BUY more precious metals stocks, warrants and especially bullion or bullion surrogates! This dip is custom made for investors.

Please don't second guess yourself or allow the nonsense you see on tout TV/CNBC. It is very dangerous to your financial wellbeing.
 
Chao”

These words echo my opinion that this is an incredible time to be buying the junior mining shares and their long-term warrants. We have arrived at a serious turning point and the recent pullbacks have set the stage for the coming rally.

We invite you to visit our website , view and listen to our new video tutorials , spend some time in learning center and sign up for our free Saturday email, The Warrant Report.

Dudley Pierce Baker
Guadalajara/Ajijic, México
Email: info@preciousmetalswarrants.com
Website: PreciousMetalsWarrants

Dudley Baker is the owner/editor of Precious Metals Warrants, a market data service which provides you with the details on all mining & energy companies with warrants trading on the U. S. and Canadian Exchanges. As new warrants are listed for trading we alert you via an e-mail blast. You are provided with links to the companies' websites, links to quotes and charts, tips for placing orders and much, much more. We do not make any specific recommendations in our service. We do the work for you and provide you with the knowledge, trading tips and the confidence in placing your orders.

Disclaimer/Disclosure Statement:PreciousMetalsWarrants.com is not an investment advisor and any reference to specific securities does not constitute a recommendation thereof. The opinions expressed herein are the express personal opinions of Dudley Baker. Neither the information, nor the opinions expressed should be construed as a solicitation to buy any securities mentioned in this Service. Examples given are only intended to make investors aware of the potential rewards of investing in Warrants. Investors are recommended to obtain the advice of a qualified investment advisor before entering into any transactions involving stocks or Warrants.

Dudley Pierce Baker Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in