Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 8th June 24
S&P 494 Stocks Then & Now - 8th June 24
As Stocks Bears Begin To Hibernate, It's Now Time To Worry About A Bear Market - 8th June 24
Gold, Silver and Crypto | How Charts Look Before US Dollar Meltdown - 8th June 24
Gold & Silver Get Slammed on Positive Economic Reports - 8th June 24
Gold Summer Doldrums - 8th June 24
S&P USD Correction - 7th June 24
Israel's Smoke and Mirrors Fake War on Gaza - 7th June 24
US Banking Crisis 2024 That No One Is Paying Attention To - 7th June 24
The Fed Leads and the Market Follows? It's a Big Fat MYTH - 7th June 24
How Much Gold Is There In the World? - 7th June 24
Is There a Financial Crisis Bubbling Under the Surface? - 7th June 24
Bitcoin Trend Forecast, Crypto's Exit Strategy - 31st May 24
Zimbabwe Officials Already Looking to Inflate New Gold-Backed Currency - 31st May 24
India Silver Imports Have Already Topped 2023 Total - 31st May 24
Gold Has Done Its Job – Isn’t That Enough? - 31st May 24
Gold Stocks Catching Up - 31st May 24
Time to take the RED Pill - 28th May 24
US Economy Slowing Slipping into Recession, But Not There Yet - 28th May 24
Gold vs. Silver – Very Important Medium-term Signal - 28th May 24
Is Gold Price Heading to $2,275 - 2,280? - 28th May 24
Stocks Bull Market Smoking Gun - 25th May 24
Congress Moves against Totalitarian Central Bank Digital Currency Schemes - 25th May 24
Government Tinkering With Prices Is Like Hiding All of the Street Signs - 25th May 24
Gold Mid Tier Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 25th May 24
Why US Interest Rates are a Nothing Burger - 24th May 24
Big Banks Are Pressuring The Fed To Losen Protection For Depositors - 24th May 24
Another Bank Failure: How to Tell if Your Bank is At Risk - 24th May 24
AI Stocks Portfolio and Tesla - 23rd May 24
All That Glitters Isn't Gold: Silver Has Outperformed Gold During This Gold Bull Run - 23rd May 24
Gold and Silver Expose Stock Market’s Phony Gains - 23rd May 24
S&P 500 Cyclical Relative Performance: Stocks Nearing Fully Valued - 23rd May 24
Nvidia NVDA Stock Earnings Rumble After Hours - 22nd May 24
Stock Market Trend Forecasts for 2024 and 2025 - 21st May 24
Silver Price Forecast: Trumpeting the Jubilee | Sovereign Debt Defaults - 21st May 24
Bitcoin Bull Market Bubble MANIA Rug Pulls 2024! - 19th May 24
Important Economic And Geopolitical Questions And Their Answers! - 19th May 24
Pakistan UN Ambassador Grows Some Balls Accuses Israel of Being Like Nazi Germany - 19th May 24
Could We See $27,000 Gold? - 19th May 24
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 19th May 24
The Gold and Silver Ship Will Set Sail! - 19th May 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Corporate Earnings Winding Down... Stock Market Acting Fine Overall.....

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013 Jul 27, 2013 - 11:12 AM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman

Stock-Markets

For a few weeks now we have been watching the earnings pour in from every sector imaginable. Every leader under the sun is being put to the test. Pre-market. Post-market. A barrage of earnings is hitting Wall Street. It becomes overwhelming, but it is necessary to follow the yellow-brick road of reports because it hints at what the market action will likely be for the next few months. There are always countertrend moves within that time frame, but it's important to know what to expect. You ask yourself the big question of what did the market think of the reports overall. When you study the plethora of reports out there, the market doesn't seem all that disappointed. Sure, there were many bad reports along the way. The usual amount of real slaughters, but on the other hand, the number of good reports, especially from the leaders, seem to outweigh the bad.


Even Apple Inc. (AAPL) was rewarded on a warning simply because it wasn't as bad as feared. The market traded evening to evening and morning to morning based on the number of good to bad and bad to good. In the end, even though they're not done, the market held up very well while trying its best to do some type of oscillator unwinding. Lateral is not bad when you consider where the market was before the earnings season began. There's not a bull in the house that wouldn't have taken lateral considering that earnings had the chance to give the bears some much needed nutrition. In the end, the markets held up well with a new catalyst now needed for the bears to make a big move to the down side. Earnings were their short-term big chance but that seems to have mostly passed them by. Now they need something else and that something else can always be out there so never let your guard down. That said, the bull is still in play for now.

There are minor headaches. You know the story well enough by now. We have oscillators that are unwinding but hey, it wouldn't be a terrible thing if they unwound a little further. We have some bull bear spread issues at 32%, but it usually needs to get above 35% to hit the market hard although you can get strong pullbacks from even 30%. We will get the new readings next week so we need to pay careful attention there and hope that this week’s back and forth put the number down a drop. If we can get it even a tad below 30% I would be a whole lot happier. That said, you can still buy new set ups as long as those set ups are off nice bases with oscillators unwound on the daily charts. It's not as easy to get away with buying high 60's RSI's any longer. They can work, but they won't come easily. Spend time studying those 60-minute charts and make sure they're unwound as well as knowing where there's solid support on the daily charts. So yes, sentiment is not great, and neither are the oscillators, but they're not on sell signals. So yes, tougher here but you can still add on weakness.

There are lots of reasons to be bearish if you look at history. PE's are getting high. The long-term length of the overall bull market. The list can go on and on. High oscillators and the potential for negative divergences on the weekly charts. All true but you know what? One strong impulse up from here and those divergences can be taken out. The reasoning for things is clear. The market is staying bullish longer than expected because of the Fed. It's really that simple. If you use history alone you would have been annihilated a long time ago going short. Never play history. EVER!! Play what you see. Play price action. play protection such as the fed is offering up on a daily basis. Wait to see the classic signs of a new bear forming. Distribution volume, etc. You know the story by now. We're just not seeing any of the classic signs of trouble yet. When we do I'll let you know, of course, but for now, remove history. Stay in the present. It says the bull, like it or not, is still alive and kicking.

Peace,

Jack

Jack Steiman is author of SwingTradeOnline.com ( www.swingtradeonline.com ). Former columnist for TheStreet.com, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

Sign up for a Free 15-Day Trial to SwingTradeOnline.com!

© 2013 SwingTradeOnline.com

Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in