Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
FED Balance Sheet Current State - 5th Mar 21
The Global Vaccine Race Against Time and Variants - 5th Mar 21
US Treasury Yields Rally May Trigger A Crazy Ivan Event (Again) In Stock Market - 5th Mar 21
After Gold’s Slide, What Happens to Miners? - 5th Mar 21
Racism Pandemic Why UK Black and Asians NOT Getting Vaccinated - NHS Covid-19 BAME - 5th Mar 21
Get Ready for Inflation Mega-trend to Surge 2021 - 4th Mar 21
Stocks, Gold – Rebound or Dead Cat Bounce? - 4th Mar 21
The Top Technologies That Are Transforming the Casino Industry - 4th Mar 21
How to Get RICH Crypto Mining Bitcoin, Ethereum With NiceHash - 4th Mar 21
Coronavirus Pandemic Vaccines Indicator Current State - 3rd Mar 21
AI Tech Stocks Investing 2021 Buy Ratings, Levels and Valuations Explained - 3rd Mar 21
Stock Market Bull Trend in Jeopardy - 3rd Mar 21
New Global Reserve Currency? - 3rd Mar 21
Gold To Monetary Base Ratio Says No Hyperinflation - 3rd Mar 21
US Fed Grilled about Its Unsound Currency, Digital Currency Schemes - 3rd Mar 21
The Case Against Inflation - 3rd Mar 21
How to Start Crypto Mining Bitcoins, Ethereum with Your Desktop PC, Laptop with NiceHash - 3rd Mar 21
AI Tech Stocks Investing Portfolio Buying Levels and Valuations 2021 Explained - 2nd Mar 21
There’s A “Chip” Shortage: And TSMC Holds All The Cards - 2nd Mar 21
Why now might be a good time to buy gold and gold juniors - 2nd Mar 21
Silver Is Close To Something Big - 2nd Mar 21
Bitcoin: Let's Put 2 Heart-Pounding Price Drops into Perspective - 2nd Mar 21
Gold Stocks Spring Rally 2021 - 2nd Mar 21
US Housing Market Trend Forecast 2021 - 2nd Mar 21
Covid-19 Vaccinations US House Prices Trend Indicator 2021 - 2nd Mar 21
How blockchain technology will change the online casino - 2nd Mar 21
How Much PC RAM Memory is Good in 2021, 16gb, 32gb or 64gb? - 2nd Mar 21
US Housing Market House Prices Momentum Analysis - 26th Feb 21
FOMC Minutes Disappoint Gold Bulls - 26th Feb 21
Kiss of Life for Gold - 26th Feb 21
Congress May Increase The Moral Hazard Building In The Stock Market - 26th Feb 21
The “Oil Of The Future” Is Set To Soar In 2021 - 26th Feb 21
The Everything Stock Market Rally Continues - 25th Feb 21
Vaccine inequality: A new beginning or another missed opportunity? - 25th Feb 21
What's Next Move For Silver, Gold? Follow US Treasuries and Commodities To Find Out - 25th Feb 21
Warren Buffett Buys a Copper Stock! - 25th Feb 21
Work From Home Inflationary US House Prices BOOM! - 25th Feb 21
Man Takes First Steps Towards Colonising Mars - Nasa Perseverance Rover in Jezero Crater - 25th Feb 21
Musk, Bezos And Cook Are Rushing To Lock In New Lithium Supply - 25th Feb 21
US Debt and Yield Curve (Spread between 2 year and 10 year US bonds) - 24th Feb 21
Should You Buy a Landrover Discovery Sport in 2021? - 24th Feb 21
US Housing Market 2021 and the Inflation Mega-trend - QE4EVER! - 24th Feb 21
M&A Most Commonly Used Software - 24th Feb 21
Is More Stock Market Correction Needed? - 24th Feb 21
VUZE XR Camera 180 3D VR Example Footage Video Image quality - 24th Feb 21
How to Protect Your Positions From A Stock Market Sell-Off Using Options - 24th Feb 21
Why Isn’t Retail Demand for Silver Pushing Up Prices? - 24th Feb 21
2 Stocks That Could Win Big In The Trillion Dollar Battery War - 24th Feb 21
US Economic Trends - GDP, Inflation and Unemployment Impact on House Prices 2021 - 23rd Feb 21
Why the Sky Is Not Falling in Precious Metals - 23rd Feb 21
7 Things Every Businessman Should Know - 23rd Feb 21
For Stocks, has the “Rational Bubble” Popped? - 23rd Feb 21
Will Biden Overheat the Economy and Gold? - 23rd Feb 21
Precious Metals Under Seige? - 23rd Feb 21
US House Prices Trend Forecast Review - 23rd Feb 21
Lithium Prices Soar As Tesla, Apple And Google Fight For Supply - 23rd Feb 21
Stock Markets Discounting Post Covid Economic Boom - 22nd Feb 21
Economics Is Why Vaccination Is So Hard - 22nd Feb 21
Pivotal Session In Stocks Bull Bear Battle - 22nd Feb 21
Gold’s Downtrend: Is This Just the Beginning? - 22nd Feb 21
The Most Exciting Commodities Play Of 2021? - 22nd Feb 21
How to Test NEW and Used GPU, and Benchmark to Make sure it is Working Properly - 22nd Feb 21
US House Prices Vaccinations Indicator - 21st Feb 21
S&P 500 Correction – No Need to Hold Onto Your Hat - 21st Feb 21
Gold Setting Up Major Bottom So Could We See A Breakout Rally Begin Soon? - 21st Feb 21
Owning Real Assets Amid Surreal Financial Markets - 21st Feb 21
Great Investment Ideas For 2021 - 21st Feb 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Gold Price Short-Term Bottom Due, Higher into February

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015 Jan 30, 2015 - 02:07 PM GMT

By: Jim_Curry

Commodities

With the sharp selling in recent days, there is now the potential that another larger-degree peak has been seen in the Gold market. Having said that, this is not set in stone at the present time, and the various time cycles that I track suggest that we should be at or nearing at least a short-term bottom, with the potential for one final slingshot higher into early-to-mid February.


The Short-Term Cycles

Of the various cycles that I track for the Gold market, the two that are the most dominant are the 10 and 34 day cycles. In some of my daily reports last week, I pointed out that the short-term cycles were Gold were topping, and that a correction phase with the same was due into late-January. This was based primarily on my daily and weekly forecast path, which is shown on the chart below:

Gold Daily Chart 1

The daily/weekly forecast chart has continued to be very accurate in recent months, with the model looking for the last significant low around the 12/31/14 date, which was noted as being plus or minus a day or so in either direction. That low ended up being registered the very next trading day (1/2/15) at the 1168.50 figure (continuous contract), and saw prices rising nearly $140 in the following weeks, with the time projection having called for a high of some significance to be registered near 1/23/15. That high was made a day on the early side, set in place at the 1307.80 figure.

The daily cycle top that was due around the 1/23/15 timeframe was also expected to end up as the high for the earlier-noted 10-day cycle, which is shown on the next chart (below). In terms of price, I always note downside 'reversal points' for most of the turns, and with that I mentioned that a break below the 1278.10 figure would confirm a correction phase to be in progress for Gold, ideally into the late-January timeframe, plus or minus.

In terms of price with the above, the normal minimum magnet to the recent correction was the 18-day moving average, due to the fact that there is a less dominant 18-20 day cycle in the Gold market (one that appears to be coming back into dominance). With that, one of my rules is that a cycle will revert back to a moving average of the same length approximately 80-85% of the time or better, and with that the assumption was that the recent short-term decline phase would see a retracement back to the same.

Going a bit further, due to a larger-degree 154-day component (more on this in a bit), the overall assumption was that the current decline phase would see the 18-day average acting as a magnet - but would also end up as a countertrend affair, holding at or above the 1224.90 figure. In terms of time, the next projected low from our daily/weekly forecast model (noted earlier) is due around the January 30th date, but which does have a plus or minus variance of a day or so in either direction. With the above said and noted, there is at least some potential that Thursday's low of 1252.10 will end up as the bottom for this move, though that is too early to say with any degree of confidence.

Stepping back just slightly, if the current daily cycle downward phase does end up as a countertrend affair - as the probabilities do tend to favor - then the next short-term upward phase should take the metal back to or above the recent highs (1307.80, continuous contract). In terms of time, this peak could be made anywhere in the February 9-16 timeframe, a range of about a week overall.

Stepping back further, the high that is registered into the month of February 'should' end up as the peak for at least the larger 34-day cycle, which is shown on the next chart (below). Following a peak with this 34-day wave, we should see, at minimum, a decline back to the 34-day moving average or lower as the smaller 34-day day wave next bottoms, which is currently due around the late-February or early-March timeframe.

Gold Daily Chart 2

Gold 154-Day Channel Chart

The 154-Day Cycle

For the bigger picture, the next major peak for Gold has been expected to come from the larger 154-day cycle, which last bottomed at the 11/7/14 low of 1131.80. After this cycle was confirmed to have troughed, the statistical information in regards to the same told us that the normal low-end rallies had been around 12.7% or more before topping, which inferred a move up to the 1274 figure or better on the current upward phase of this wave - something which has obviously been satisfied with the recent action.

In terms of time, the greater-majority of the upward phases of this same 154-day cycle were noted as having lasted at least 2-3 months off the bottom before peaking, which favored strength into the mid-January timeframe, at minimum - something which we have also seen satisfied. With that, this cycle is now moving back into topping range, and could be primed to peak in the early-to-mid February region, should Gold manage to reverse back and make new highs for the bigger swing at or into the same. You can get a more clear view of this 154-day cycle on the chart below:

Gold Daily Chart 3

For the bigger picture, the overall assumption has been that the current 154-day cycle upward phase would hold at or well below the prior peak for this component, which is the March, 2014 high of 1400.60; however, it should ideally also remain at or below the July, 2014 top of 1354.40. If correct, then - following the pattern of a 'lower-high' - another sharp decline of 15-20% off the top is expected to unfold into April or May of this year, when yet another 154-day cycle bottom would be due. With that, there is still the potential for the metal to take out the 11/7/14 bottom in the coming months.

As a final note in regards to the bigger picture, I should add that any monthly (monthly bar) close above the 1330.00 figure for Gold - if seen at any point going forward - would likely void any potential for new lows being seen on the next 154-day downward phase into April/May. Going further, I should also point out that any reversal back below the 1166.50 figure (continuous contract) - should that be seen at any point - would be our confirmation that this wave has topped - a number which should continue to rise in the coming weeks, depending on the action seen in-between.

The Overall Bottom Line

The overall bottom line with the above is that a short-term cycle bottom is due anywhere in the current timeframe (i.e., January 30th, plus or minus), and - once complete - should give way to a sharp trading rally into around mid-February, plus or minus, a move that could still make a push back to or above the recent highs. From there, however, the probabilities will favor a more important peak forming with the 154-day cycle, which is due for a sharp correction off the top into the Spring of this year.

Jim Curry

Market Turns Advisory

Email: jcurry@cycle-wave.com

goldwavetrader.com.

Jim Curry is the editor and publisher of The Gold Wave Trader, which specializes in the use of cyclic and statistical analysis to time the markets. He is also the author of several trading-related e-books, including ‘The Volatility Reversal Method’, also ‘Cycles & Moving Averages’. He can be reached at the URL above.

Copyright 2014, Jim Curry - Disclaimer - The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical research and data believed reliable, but there is no guarantee that future results will be profitable. The methods used to form opinions are highly probable and as you follow them for some time you can gain confidence in them. The market can and will do the unexpected, use the sell stops provided to assist in risk avoidance. Not responsible for errors or omissions.

JIm Curry Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules