Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
US Housing Market Analysis - Immigration Drives House Prices Higher - 30th Sep 24
Stock Market October Correction - 30th Sep 24
The Folly of Tariffs and Trade Wars - 30th Sep 24
Gold: 5 principles to help you stay ahead of price turns - 30th Sep 24
The Everything Rally will Spark multi year Bull Market - 30th Sep 24
US FIXED MORTGAGES LIMITING SUPPLY - 23rd Sep 24
US Housing Market Free Equity - 23rd Sep 24
US Rate Cut FOMO In Stock Market Correction Window - 22nd Sep 24
US State Demographics - 22nd Sep 24
Gold and Silver Shine as the Fed Cuts Rates: What’s Next? - 22nd Sep 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks:Nothing Can Topple This Market - 22nd Sep 24
US Population Growth Rate - 17th Sep 24
Are Stocks Overheating? - 17th Sep 24
Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is At A Major Turning Point - 17th Sep 24
If The Stock Market Turn Quickly, How Bad Can Things Get? - 17th Sep 24
IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER - 12th Sep 24
Global Debt Bubble - 12th Sep 24
Gold’s Outlook CPI Data - 12th Sep 24
RECESSION When Yield Curve Uninverts - 8th Sep 24
Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is Set Up To Shine - 8th Sep 24
Precious Metals Shine in August: Gold and Silver Surge Ahead - 8th Sep 24
Gold’s Demand Comeback - 8th Sep 24
Gold’s Quick Reversal and Copper’s Major Indications - 8th Sep 24
GLOBAL WARMING Housing Market Consequences Right Now - 6th Sep 24
Crude Oil’s Sign for Gold Investors - 6th Sep 24
Stocks Face Uncertainty Following Sell-Off- 6th Sep 24
GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO OUTPERFORM MINING SHARES - 6th Sep 24
AI Stocks Portfolio and Bitcoin September 2024 - 3rd Sep 24
2024 = 1984 - AI Equals Loss of Agency - 30th Aug 24
UBI - Universal Billionaire Income - 30th Aug 24
US COUNTING DOWN TO CRISIS, CATASTROPHE AND COLLAPSE - 30th Aug 24
GBP/USD Uptrend: What’s Next for the Pair? - 30th Aug 24
The Post-2020 History of the 10-2 US Treasury Yield Curve - 30th Aug 24
Stocks Likely to Extend Consolidation: Topping Pattern Forming? - 30th Aug 24
Why Stock-Market Success Is Usually Only Temporary - 30th Aug 24
The Consequences of AI - 24th Aug 24
Can Greedy Politicians Really Stop Price Inflation With a "Price Gouging" Ban? - 24th Aug 24
Why Alien Intelligence Cannot Predict the Future - 23rd Aug 24
Stock Market Surefire Way to Go Broke - 23rd Aug 24
RIP Google Search - 23rd Aug 24
What happened to the Fed’s Gold? - 23rd Aug 24
US Dollar Reserves Have Dropped By 14 Percent Since 2002 - 23rd Aug 24
Will Electric Vehicles Be the Killer App for Silver? - 23rd Aug 24
EUR/USD Update: Strong Uptrend and Key Levels to Watch - 23rd Aug 24
Gold Mid-Tier Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 23rd Aug 24
My GCSE Exam Results Day Shock! 2024 - 23rd Aug 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Ashcroft Poll Forecasts Nick Clegg to Lose Sheffield Hallam, But Tories to Rescue Lib Dems

ElectionOracle / Sheffield Apr 02, 2015 - 03:36 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

The Labour party finally came to life in the battle for Lib Dem Leader Nick Clegg's Sheffield Hallam Seat, with the start of door step campaigning for local votes and leaflets dropping through letter boxes that list Lib Dem 'broken promises' such as not to raise tuition fees, VAT, and the local issue not to grant Sheffield Forgemasters a £80 million loan. Whilst Labour promises to "cut the deficit every year and get the current budget into surplus". Which is set against Labours track record of an out of control £167 billion annual budget deficit for 2009-10.


Which the Coalition despite austerity have only reduced to £95 billion, resulting in additional debt of approx £550 billion.

The local Labour party have been further bolstered by Lord Ashcroft's latest constituency level polling which shows that Nick Clegg is trailing behind the Labour candidate Oliver Coppard by 2%.

Sheffield Hallam Lord Ashcroft Opinion Poll (22nd-28th March 2015).

Conservative 16%
Labour 36%
Liberal Democrat 34%
UKIP 7%
Green 6%
Other 1%

Meanwhile where campaigning is concerned the Conservatives are still nowhere in sight, which suggests that their strategy favours the Lib Dem leader retaining his Sheffield Hallam seat than attempting to draw potential Lib Dem voters away and thus give the seat to Labour.

SNP Catastrophe

Clearly it is in both Labour and the Conservative interests for the Liberal Democrats' to do much better on election day then the 20-22 seats blood bath that the opinion polls suggest. So expect a lot of tactical voting in the Lib Dems direction, i.e. Labour and Conservatives voting for the Lib Dem candidate, which I am sure the political pundits will write much about AFTER election day to explain why the Lib Dems did much better than the opinion polls suggested. For then either party will be able to do avoid doing a deal with the devil, which for Labour are the SNP and Plaid Cymru nationalists and for the Conservatives tunnel vision UKIP.

Were Labour to be the largest party then as the following video analysis illustrates that the outcome for Labour to only be able to form a majority with the SNP and other nationalists could be catastrophic for Britain, as it is the intention of nationalist parties to literally force a Labour government to go on a debt fuelled spending binge, that within a few short years would literally leave the United Kingdom as hollow bankrupt husk, following which the SNP controlled Scottish parliament unilaterally declares itself independence.

Alex Salmond warns "If you hold the balance then you hold the power", "it would be very good for Scotland"

Therefore it is in the interests of BOTH Conservatives and Labour for the Lib Dems not be wiped out to such an extent that either are not able to form a Coalition with post election day. This further reinforces my view since 25th Feb 2015 ( Liberal Democrat Election Blood Bath - Could Nick Clegg Lose Sheffield Hallam?) that Nick Clegg will probably retain his seat in Sheffield Hallam regardless of the Ashcroft polls, AND that the Liberal Democrats nationally will do much better by at least retaining 30 seats and probably awake on May 8th with a tally nearer to 35 seats. Which would be enough for either Labour or Conservative on 290-300 seats to then form a Coalition government with.

27 Mar 2015 - Sheffield Hallam Election Battle 2015 - Lib Dems Go to War Whilst Labour Sleeps

However the trend to date of an highly intelligent and well organised and financed local Lib Dem campaign reinforces my earlier expectations for Nick Clegg to retain his Sheffield Hallam seat. Which given the weak Labour response to date suggests that Labours own private polling has concluded that it is just not worth wasting resources on trying to win. This implies that Nick Clegg could do much better than winning by 2,000 votes as I had originally envisioned a month ago, but instead now looks set to achieve a far more substantial majority of around 5,000 votes, which is contrary to the opinion polls that put the Lib Dems 10% behind Labour in Sheffield Hallam (Survation - LAB 33%, LD 23%, CON 22%, GREEN 12%, UKIP 9%).

So the trend is in the Lib Dems favour as the electorate right across the United Kingdom are awaking to the realisation of the potential for catastrophe should the SNP gain power in Westminister via a weak minority Labour government and then proceed to bankrupt Britain before the Scottish Parliament declares Independence without another referendum.

Election Forecast 2015

This reinforces the conclusion of my analysis of 28th Feb that the Liberal Democrats nationally are going to do much better than the opinion polls continue to suggest i.e. achieve a minimum of 30 seats and probably awake on May 8th with a tally near 35 MP's, as resources are being intelligently concentrated on those 35-40 most winnable seats, whilst the rest are effectively being abandoned. Which is set against current mainstream press typical opinion polls based seats forecast range of 20-24 seats.

UK General Election May 2015 Forecast Conclusion

My forecast conclusion is for the Conservatives to win 296 seats at the May 7th general election, Labour 2nd on 262 seats, with the full seats per political party breakdown as follows:

Therefore the most probable outcome is for a continuation of the ConDem Coalition government on 326 seats (296+30) where any shortfall would likely find support from the DUP's 8 seats.

The alternative is for a truly messy Lab-Lib SNP supported chaotic government on 327 seats (262+30+35) which in my opinion would be a truly disastrous outcome for Britain, nearly as bad as if Scotland had voted for independence last September.

Another possibility is that should the Conservatives do better than forecast i.e. secure over 300 seats but still fail to win an overall majority, then they may chose to go it alone with the plan to work towards winning a May 2016 general election.

The bottom line is that the opinion polls do not reflect how people will actually vote on May 7th when they are faced with a stark choice of steady as she goes ConDem government or take a huge gamble on Ed Milliband's Labour party. So in my opinion several millions of voters will chose to play it safe with ConDem which thus is the most probable outcome.

Also available a youtube video version of my forecast:

Also see recent video facts check analysis of the Leadership debates with Jeremy Paxman -

David Cameron Leadership Debate

Ed Miliband Leadership Debate

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter for in-depth analysis and detailed trend forecast delivered to your email in box.

Source and Comments: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article50097.html

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2015 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in