Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
A Lesson About Gold – How Bullish Can It Be? - 24th Jan 20
Stock Market January 2018 Repeats in 2020 – Yikes! - 24th Jan 20
Gold Report from the Two Besieged Cities - 24th Jan 20
Stock Market Elliott Waves Trend Forecast 2020 - Video - 24th Jan 20
AMD Multi-cores vs INTEL Turbo Cores - Best Gaming CPUs 2020 - 3900x, 3950x, 9900K, or 9900KS - 24th Jan 20
Choosing the Best Garage Floor Containment Mats - 23rd Jan 20
Understanding the Benefits of Cannabis Tea - 23rd Jan 20
The Next Catalyst for Gold - 23rd Jan 20
5 Cyber-security considerations for 2020 - 23rd Jan 20
Car insurance: what the latest modifications could mean for your premiums - 23rd Jan 20
Junior Gold Mining Stocks Setting Up For Another Rally - 22nd Jan 20
Debt the Only 'Bubble' That Counts, Buy Gold and Silver! - 22nd Jan 20
AMAZON (AMZN) - Primary AI Tech Stock Investing 2020 and Beyond - Video - 21st Jan 20
What Do Fresh U.S. Economic Reports Imply for Gold? - 21st Jan 20
Corporate Earnings Setup Rally To Stock Market Peak - 21st Jan 20
Gold Price Trend Forecast 2020 - Part1 - 21st Jan 20
How to Write a Good Finance College Essay  - 21st Jan 20
Risks to Global Economy is Balanced: Stock Market upside limited short term - 20th Jan 20
How Digital Technology is Changing the Sports Betting Industry - 20th Jan 20
Is CEOs Reputation Management Essential? All You Must Know - 20th Jan 20
APPLE (AAPL) AI Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 20th Jan 20
FOMO or FOPA or Au? - 20th Jan 20
Stock Market SP500 Kitchin Cycle Review - 20th Jan 20
Why Intel i7-4790k Devils Canyon CPU is STILL GOOD in 2020! - 20th Jan 20
Stock Market Final Thrust Review - 19th Jan 20
Gold Trade Usage & Price Effect - 19th Jan 20
Stock Market Trend Forecast 2020 - Trend Analysis - Video - 19th Jan 20
Stock Trade-of-the-Week: Dorchester Minerals (DMLP) - 19th Jan 20
INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing in AI Machine Intelligence Mega-trend 2020 and Beyond - 18th Jan 20
Gold Stocks Wavering - 18th Jan 20
Best Amazon iPhone Case Fits 6s, 7, 8 by Toovren Review - 18th Jan 20
1. GOOGLE (Alphabet) - Primary AI Tech Stock For Investing 2020 - 17th Jan 20
ERY Energy Bear Continues Basing Setup – Breakout Expected Near January 24th - 17th Jan 20
What Expiring Stock and Commodity Market Bubbles Look Like - 17th Jan 20
Platinum Breaks $1000 On Big Rally - What's Next Forecast - 17th Jan 20
Precious Metals Set to Keep Powering Ahead - 17th Jan 20
Stock Market and the US Presidential Election Cycle  - 16th Jan 20
Shifting Undercurrents In The US Stock Market - 16th Jan 20
America 2020 – YEAR OF LIVING DANGEROUSLY (PART TWO) - 16th Jan 20
Yes, China Is a Currency Manipulator – And the U.S. Banking System Is a Metals Manipulator - 16th Jan 20
MICROSOFT Stock Investing in AI Machine Intelligence Mega-trend 2020 and Beyond - 15th Jan 20
Silver Traders Big Trend Analysis – Part II - 15th Jan 20
Silver Short-Term Pullback Before Acceleration Higher - 15th Jan 20
Gold Overall Outlook Is 'Strongly Bullish' - 15th Jan 20
AMD is Killing Intel - Best CPU's For 2020! Ryzen 3900x, 3950x, 3960x Budget, to High End Systems - 15th Jan 20
The Importance Of Keeping Invoices Up To Date - 15th Jan 20
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis 2020 - 14th Jan 20
Walmart Has Made a Genius Move to Beat Amazon - 14th Jan 20
Deep State 2020 – A Year Of Living Dangerously! - 14th Jan 20
The End of College Is Near - 14th Jan 20
AI Stocks Investing 2020 to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend - Video - 14th Jan 20
Stock Market Final Thrust - 14th Jan 20
British Pound GBP Trend Forecast Review - 13th Jan 20
Trumpism Stock Market and the crisis in American social equality - 13th Jan 20
Silver Investors Big Trend Analysis for – Part I - 13th Jan 20
Craig Hemke Gold & Silver 2020 Prediction, Slams Biased Gold Naysayers - 13th Jan 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Ashcroft Poll Forecasts Nick Clegg to Lose Sheffield Hallam, But Tories to Rescue Lib Dems

ElectionOracle / Sheffield Apr 02, 2015 - 03:36 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

The Labour party finally came to life in the battle for Lib Dem Leader Nick Clegg's Sheffield Hallam Seat, with the start of door step campaigning for local votes and leaflets dropping through letter boxes that list Lib Dem 'broken promises' such as not to raise tuition fees, VAT, and the local issue not to grant Sheffield Forgemasters a £80 million loan. Whilst Labour promises to "cut the deficit every year and get the current budget into surplus". Which is set against Labours track record of an out of control £167 billion annual budget deficit for 2009-10.


Which the Coalition despite austerity have only reduced to £95 billion, resulting in additional debt of approx £550 billion.

The local Labour party have been further bolstered by Lord Ashcroft's latest constituency level polling which shows that Nick Clegg is trailing behind the Labour candidate Oliver Coppard by 2%.

Sheffield Hallam Lord Ashcroft Opinion Poll (22nd-28th March 2015).

Conservative 16%
Labour 36%
Liberal Democrat 34%
UKIP 7%
Green 6%
Other 1%

Meanwhile where campaigning is concerned the Conservatives are still nowhere in sight, which suggests that their strategy favours the Lib Dem leader retaining his Sheffield Hallam seat than attempting to draw potential Lib Dem voters away and thus give the seat to Labour.

SNP Catastrophe

Clearly it is in both Labour and the Conservative interests for the Liberal Democrats' to do much better on election day then the 20-22 seats blood bath that the opinion polls suggest. So expect a lot of tactical voting in the Lib Dems direction, i.e. Labour and Conservatives voting for the Lib Dem candidate, which I am sure the political pundits will write much about AFTER election day to explain why the Lib Dems did much better than the opinion polls suggested. For then either party will be able to do avoid doing a deal with the devil, which for Labour are the SNP and Plaid Cymru nationalists and for the Conservatives tunnel vision UKIP.

Were Labour to be the largest party then as the following video analysis illustrates that the outcome for Labour to only be able to form a majority with the SNP and other nationalists could be catastrophic for Britain, as it is the intention of nationalist parties to literally force a Labour government to go on a debt fuelled spending binge, that within a few short years would literally leave the United Kingdom as hollow bankrupt husk, following which the SNP controlled Scottish parliament unilaterally declares itself independence.

Alex Salmond warns "If you hold the balance then you hold the power", "it would be very good for Scotland"

Therefore it is in the interests of BOTH Conservatives and Labour for the Lib Dems not be wiped out to such an extent that either are not able to form a Coalition with post election day. This further reinforces my view since 25th Feb 2015 ( Liberal Democrat Election Blood Bath - Could Nick Clegg Lose Sheffield Hallam?) that Nick Clegg will probably retain his seat in Sheffield Hallam regardless of the Ashcroft polls, AND that the Liberal Democrats nationally will do much better by at least retaining 30 seats and probably awake on May 8th with a tally nearer to 35 seats. Which would be enough for either Labour or Conservative on 290-300 seats to then form a Coalition government with.

27 Mar 2015 - Sheffield Hallam Election Battle 2015 - Lib Dems Go to War Whilst Labour Sleeps

However the trend to date of an highly intelligent and well organised and financed local Lib Dem campaign reinforces my earlier expectations for Nick Clegg to retain his Sheffield Hallam seat. Which given the weak Labour response to date suggests that Labours own private polling has concluded that it is just not worth wasting resources on trying to win. This implies that Nick Clegg could do much better than winning by 2,000 votes as I had originally envisioned a month ago, but instead now looks set to achieve a far more substantial majority of around 5,000 votes, which is contrary to the opinion polls that put the Lib Dems 10% behind Labour in Sheffield Hallam (Survation - LAB 33%, LD 23%, CON 22%, GREEN 12%, UKIP 9%).

So the trend is in the Lib Dems favour as the electorate right across the United Kingdom are awaking to the realisation of the potential for catastrophe should the SNP gain power in Westminister via a weak minority Labour government and then proceed to bankrupt Britain before the Scottish Parliament declares Independence without another referendum.

Election Forecast 2015

This reinforces the conclusion of my analysis of 28th Feb that the Liberal Democrats nationally are going to do much better than the opinion polls continue to suggest i.e. achieve a minimum of 30 seats and probably awake on May 8th with a tally near 35 MP's, as resources are being intelligently concentrated on those 35-40 most winnable seats, whilst the rest are effectively being abandoned. Which is set against current mainstream press typical opinion polls based seats forecast range of 20-24 seats.

UK General Election May 2015 Forecast Conclusion

My forecast conclusion is for the Conservatives to win 296 seats at the May 7th general election, Labour 2nd on 262 seats, with the full seats per political party breakdown as follows:

Therefore the most probable outcome is for a continuation of the ConDem Coalition government on 326 seats (296+30) where any shortfall would likely find support from the DUP's 8 seats.

The alternative is for a truly messy Lab-Lib SNP supported chaotic government on 327 seats (262+30+35) which in my opinion would be a truly disastrous outcome for Britain, nearly as bad as if Scotland had voted for independence last September.

Another possibility is that should the Conservatives do better than forecast i.e. secure over 300 seats but still fail to win an overall majority, then they may chose to go it alone with the plan to work towards winning a May 2016 general election.

The bottom line is that the opinion polls do not reflect how people will actually vote on May 7th when they are faced with a stark choice of steady as she goes ConDem government or take a huge gamble on Ed Milliband's Labour party. So in my opinion several millions of voters will chose to play it safe with ConDem which thus is the most probable outcome.

Also available a youtube video version of my forecast:

Also see recent video facts check analysis of the Leadership debates with Jeremy Paxman -

David Cameron Leadership Debate

Ed Miliband Leadership Debate

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter for in-depth analysis and detailed trend forecast delivered to your email in box.

Source and Comments: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article50097.html

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2015 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules