EU REMAIN Population Forecasts - England 4.1 million Explosion, London Migration Crisis
ElectionOracle / EU_Referendum May 28, 2016 - 01:03 PM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
The ONS latest revision to it's population forecasts, that looks set to see England's population explode higher by 4.1 million by 2024. Which in my opinion still greatly under estimates what is actually transpiring as a consequences of out of control immigration that sees total annual migration of between 800k and 1 million, and official net migration of 333k. Though other measures such as National Insurance suggest actual net migration is far higher, near double the official rate at 500k.
Firstly the headline ONS figure masks huge regional variations so that the impact of population growth ranges from mild to crisis levels in terms of the impact on communities as services such as health, housing, and schools are already at breaking point even before another 4.1 million is added to the populous.
As the ONS table illustrates the epicentre of England's population explosion is London that looks set to suffer a 13.7% increase in population from 8.5 million to near 10 million, and which I covered in depth in the following video analysis -
Youtube 26 Mins - https://youtu.be/yQJIB7AuqRQ
The whole of the South of England is expected to experience large population increases of between 7% and 9%, which gradually slows the further north one goes, with the Midlands on +6%, Yorkshire dipping to just below 5%, and the North at sub +4%
Furthermore, the following table further illustrates the crisis that awaits an already over populated London that supports the conclusions of my earlier video analysis in that London looks set to experience 10.2% increase in international migration plus 10.4% increase in natural population growth, which would total a population explosion of 20.6% were it not for the fact that the indigenous population continues to be displaced at great numbers, resulting in loss of 7% of the british born population for a net population increase of 13.7%.
And according to ONS more than 50% of the increase in the UK population will be as a consequence of international immigration.
ONS UK Population Forecast 10 Million Increase
In terms of the ONS's forecast for the whole of the UK, an earlier ONS report forecast that the UK population would rise by 15% from 64.6 million (mid 2014) to 74.3 million by 2039 (25 years time), approx 70% of which will be due to continuing out of control immigration from predominantly eastern europe as 7 million more economic migrants will seek to jump on board Britain's benefits gravy train (in work and out of work benefits) that typically can amount to more than X5 those receivable in eastern europe.
ONS Main Points:
• The UK population is projected to increase by 9.7 million over the next 25 years from an estimated 64.6 million in mid-2014 to 74.3 million in mid-2039.
• The UK population is projected to reach 70 million by mid-2027.
• Assumed net migration accounts for 51% of the projected increase over the next 25 years, with natural increase (more births than deaths) accounting for the remaining 49% of growth .
• Over the 10 year period to mid-2024, the UK population is projected to increase by 4.4 million to 69.0 million. This is 249,000 higher than the previous (2012-based) projection for that year.
• The population is projected to continue ageing, with the average (median) age rising from 40.0 years in 2014 to 40.9 years in mid-2024 and 42.9 by mid-2039.
• By mid-2039, more than 1 in 12 of the population is projected to be aged 80 or over.
As expected the bulk of the ONS population forecast increase is for England to absorb 9 million people.
The following table also explains why 70% of the population increase will be due to immigration as it includes 1.7 million as a consequence of 25 years of children born to new immigrants.
Flaw in ONS Population Forecast
The blatant flaw in the ONS population forecast is that they expect net migration of just 5 million over the next 25 years i.e. 200,000 per year when the actual trend of the last decade is pointing towards an exponentially increasing number where instead of an average of 200k per annum, the reality is probably going to be nearer to 1/2 million a year, that would convert into the UK population reaching 74.6 million not in 25 years but in just 15 years time!
As illustrated by recent immigration statistics that showed net migration soaring to 333,000 per annum against David Cameron's long standing election promise of net migration of in the 'tens of thousands'.
This apparent flaws in ONS forecasts is further illustrated by estimated UK population having already reached 67 million which the ONS forecasts not happen until Mid 2019, which perhaps explains why the ONS has yet to update it's UK population statistics which appear to remain stuck at 64.6 million as of Mid 2014, perhaps the June 23rd EU Referendum explains the reason for the 2 year delay in release of updated population statistics?
UK Population Forecast
My long standing forecast is for the UK population to grow from 62.2 million as of Mid 2010 to at least 70.5 million by 2030 as excerpted below:
UK Population Growth and Immigration Trend Forecast 2010 to 2030)
The assumptions being factored into the UK population growth forecast are for a natural UK population growth rate of births exceeding deaths of 0.33% per year (current 200k), coupled with net average current immigration trend of 240k per year, supplemented with climate change refugees averaging 50k per year from 2015 onwards extrapolates into the following trend forecast over the next 10 years that targets a rise from 62.2 million as of mid 2010 to 67 million by mid 2020, and should the same trend be maintained beyond 2020 then the UK population could rise to above 72 million by mid 2030. However in all probability the country will not experience the post 2020 trend due to several converging factors including political pressures, capacity constraints and the UK's relegation in the economic prosperity leagues. Which implies a tapering off of net immigration in favour of natural growth which implies a lower total of nearer 70.5 million by 2030 as illustrated by the below graph.
The updated UK population graph shows an actual trend trajectory as per the most recent ONS population data into Mid 2014 of 64.6 million, which suggests that the UK population could increase by an additional 4 million by 2030 as a consequence of what amounts to continuing out of control immigration and high birth rate that in total would translate into a population increase equivalent to 15 cities the size of Birmingham.
This has huge implications for Britain in terms of housing, services, wages, education, welfare and social cohesion that will make the crisis of the past decade look like a picnic. For in depth analysis see 15 Apr 2015 - UK House Prices, Immigration, Population Growth and Election Forecast 2015, and the following video -
BrExit Best for Britain
Over the past 18 months of analysis I have come to the firm conclusion that on the balance of probabilities that Britain would be far better off in the long-run by LEAVING to the European Union. Yes, there would be short-term uncertainty and some economic pain, but the price of remaining within the EU will be INFINITELY greater as my articles such as this and videos to date illustrate.
For one thing immigration would be greatly reduced, for instance research by the SMF/Adecco Group states that if EU migrants were subject to the same visa requirements as non EU migrants then 90% of whom would NOT have been allowed entry into the UK for work! i.e. instead of approx 4.5 million EU migrants since 2000, there would only have been 450,000! Which suggests that following BrExit immigration from the EU could fall by about 90%!
Whilst by REMAINING in the EU then EU immigration is set to accelerate further due to the living wage of £7.20 per hour that is set to rise towards £10 per hour, whilst the living wage in many eastern european nations is just £1 per hour, this illustrates that the pull factor is only going to get stronger hence much higher levels of EU immigration which Britain CANNOT control!
Therefore with less than 4 weeks to go and the opinion polls virtually neck and neck on 44%, we have been ramping up our campaign for a BrExit outcome as we enter the final stretch, producing Brexit resources from in-depth analysis such as this, rebuttal articles to daily government propaganda, and many videos, and also active on the social networks so as to do our best to play a part in securing Britain's long-term future, June 23rds is Britain's very LAST chance for freedom which you too can help us to achieve by supporting our Brexit cause in this final push for freedom!
And also ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter (only requirement is an email address) for forthcoming in-depth analysis and detailed trend forecasts that include the following :
- BrExit to Save Europe from the Apocalypse
- US Dollar Trend Forecast
- UK Housing Market Trend Forecasts
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- US House Prices Detailed Multi-Year Trend Forecast
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By Nadeem Walayat
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Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
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