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Next Tory Leader, Prime Minister Forecast and Betting Market Odds

Politics / UK Politics Nov 18, 2018 - 11:58 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Politics

Britain is counting down to a change of Prime Minister following the release of Theresa May's disastrous 'brexit deal' where nearly every British red line has been watered down towards nothing in what amounts to a 585 page suicide note that triggered Tory MP's to start sending letters to the party's 1922 committee where the requirement is for a minimum of 48 letters to trigger a leadership contest that will likely be announced sometime next week as I have covered at length in the following article and video.


BrExit War - Tory Party About to Replace Theresa May for NO DEAL BrExit

NO DEAL HARD BrExit Tory Chaos, Theresa May Leadership Challenge

The conclusion of which is a forecast of who is the most likely person to become the Next Tory Leader / Prime Minister out of the following 5 most probable contenders, with Jacob Rees-Mogg deemed to be the favourite followed closely by Boris Johnson.

  • Boris Johnson
  • Dominic Raab
  • David Davis
  • Michael Gove
  • Jacob Rees-Mogg

So lets take a look at what the betting markets (Betfair) are saying in terms whether Theresa May can survive a leadership challenge and if not who is the money being put on, and how it compares against my forecast.

Theresa May - Exit Dates

The most betting is on Theresa May leaving before the end of December 2018 and thus supporting the view that she will not survive a leadership challenge. However, the market price of 2.9 is not a very high probability i.e. for a high probability the market would be trading at 1.5 or less. Similarly alternative dates are not that distant from Oct-Dec 2018 i.e. Jan to March 2019 is trading at 5.

So whilst Oct-Dec 2018 has the most money bet on it, in reality given the ranges it is not even a coin toss where Betfair is concerned.

Next Tory Leader

Firstly there is no clear favorite to win a leadership contest. Instead there are a group of 4 similarly priced contenders all trading at near 8.5.

  • Dominic Raab
  • Sajid Javid
  • Boris Johnson
  • Michael Gove

And then comes a long list of contenders which includes Jacob Rees-Mogg at 15.5 and David Davis on 17.

So the betting markets are not giving any clear indication of who could take over from Theresa May, it's literally a case of placing chips on roulette table and waiting to see which number the ball falls on. Which is set against my forecast of the favourites being Jacob Rees-Mogg and Boris Johnson.

I'll let you draw your own conclusion ;)

Your analyst,

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2018 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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