UK Population Growth Trend Forecast and Housing Market Consequences
Housing-Market / UK Housing Mar 31, 2019 - 04:48 PM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis directly continues on from (UK Population Growth - Latest ONS Immigration Statistics and Consequences) which is part of a series that aims to conclude in a new multi-year trend forecast for UK house prices. But first a recap of my analysis to date that so far suggests to ignore mainstream press hysteria that warns of impending doom for Britains housing market, encouraged no less than the Government and Bank of England which warn to expect a 30% CRASH in UK house prices should the UK LEAVE the EU without a deal.
Instead my analysis so far (first made available to patrons) continues to paint a picture for UK house prices to remain on an overall upward trend trajectory.
- Current State and Momentum Analysis
- UK House Prices, Immigration, and Population Growth Trend Forecast
- UK Ageing Population Demographics and House Prices Trend Forecast
UK Housing Market Crisis Consequences
In terms of the impact of out of control immigration on the housing market, Channel 4's series 'How to Get a Council House' has done an excellent job of demonstrating the real world impact on the housing crisis, of how the mass migration statistics translate into real world examples of what is taking place right across Britain.
The series demonstrates how out of control EU migration is having a disastrous impact on Britain's housing market. For instance in one episode a Romanian family of 7 ( 2 adults and 5 children) is shown arriving into the UK at Hounslow's housing department demanding that they be housed, and after tooing and froing for a couple of weeks for the cameras, are then within 2 weeks housed in a 4 bedroom house in Birmingham at a cost to the tax payer of £750 per month! And in total will likely be in receipt of over £60k in benefits per year! (includes £25k cost for schooling for 5 children).
The episode continues with other recent migrants such including a single adult from Bermuda, who expected to be housed, and a family of 3 from Poland and Africa, again expecting to be housed and granted housing by the end of the episode.
Towards the end of the episode the housing support officer is asked "Do you think they should have been housed", to which he answers -
"I think it's a yes, no answer, it does not always seem fair and in this case I think the verdict will be open, there will be some of you who will think, we'll were glad for them. Others might think here's another case of the system being exploited. "
Whilst the romanian male of the family of 7 is asked "Do you know there is a housing shortage here in Britain?" to which he replies -
"I didn't know that, maybe I was one of the lucky ones"
The episode ends with a dire statement from Hounslow's Director of Housing - "We are seeing an increase in applications from overseas. We do not have the supply, we do not have the homes to put them in. The situation can only get worse and we will expect to see those numbers simply grow and grow."
The reality is apparent that eastern europeans know exactly what they need to do to jump the housing waiting list queues so as to achieve what British born people are unable to despite waiting for literally decades on what amount to worthless housing waiting lists. So when people say that migrants are being given priority over British people, well it is true for EU migrant families at least, for being HOMELESS WITH CHILDREN, means that they are treated as PRIORITY CASES, which is why the housing waiting lists that British born people have been patiently sat on for 20+ years, waiting to be re-housed remain FROZEN. And if Brit's make themselves homeless so as to put pressure on the Council, then the Council tends to turn around and inform them that they cannot be helped because they have INTENTIALLY made themselves homeless! Whilst virtually ALL europeans migrating to Britain WITH children are being given housing within 2-4 weeks which is the nature of Britain's decade long building housing crisis that has long since passed tipping point.
I have covered the consequences of out of control immigration on Britain's housing market many times over the years as illustrated by the following video of December 2015 that warned why London would become Britain's worst performing housing regional market which includes suffering outright falls in house prices over the next 3 years, which has subsequently come to pass:
UK Population Growth
The updated UK population graph shows UK population estimated at 66.57 million as of December 2018, against my trend forecast of 66.02 million. Which suggests that the UK population could increase by an additional 1.3 million by 2030 as a consequence of what amounts to continuing out of control immigration that in total translates into a UK population increase equivalent to 10 cities the size of Birmingham by 2030.
In terms of house prices, then the trend trajectory remains the same, where Immigration remains a primary driver for UK population growth of 400k per annum amounting to more than 2/3rds of the annual population increase which shows no signs of diminishing to a rate anywhere near the level of annual UK house building (140,000 per year). Thus population growth will continue to put upwards pressure on house prices for at least another decade, even more so if Brexit actually happens as a post Brexit a higher caliber of immigrant would increase pressure on UK house prices as professionals tend to seek to get their foot onto the property ladder.
Which strongly suggests that unless net immigration falls to well below 100k per annum then any BrExit UK house price wobbles, even out right falls will prove highly temporary, as new building cannot even keep pace with existing pent up demand let alone the added pressure from that of continuing net migration of over 250k per year.
So my long-term message remains the same to those waiting to get a foot onto the property ladder, which is not to pin their hopes on any significant Brexit chaos fall or even crash in house prices such as the morons at the Bank of England ar presently forecasting a 30% Brexit Crash because as this analysis illustrates there are NO SIGNS for it actually materialising, which means those waiting to buy should act sooner rather than later, to get a foot onto the property ladder else face the consequences of ever rising house prices in the face of one of the primary fundamental drivers of UK annual population growth far outpacing house building courtesy of continuing out of control immigration, far beyond the 50k annual target that the Conservative government used to trundle out but now has given up hopes of ever achieving.
And where BrExit is concerned them my view is that Britain's REMAIN Parliament is preparing to subvert Brexit by means of a so called "Peoples Vote", which would amount to a FIXED 2nd EU Referendum with the objective of ensuring that REMAIN would win which would sow the seeds for much civil unrest and which has already put Britain into a Pre-Civil War state!
The whole of this analysis was first made available to Patrons who support my work - UK House Prices, Immigration, and Population Growth Trend Forecast. So to get immediate access right now and First Access to ALL of my future analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat
Whilst my recent in-depth analysis concludes in a 6 month trend forecast for Stock Market from to September 2019:
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So for first Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
Your Analyst
Nadeem Walayat
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Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
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