Category: UK Housing
The news items published under this category are as follows.
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Summer Sun Shines on Rising UK House Prices in June / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nationwide
House prices rose by 0.9% in June
- Three month rate of change turns positive for first time since December 2007
- Low supply supporting prices for now, but a sustained recovery still faces risks
Sunday, June 07, 2009
Halifax UK House Prices Index Surges by 2.6% in May / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: HBOS
Annual change -16.3%
Monthly change 2.6%
Average Price £158,565
Sunday, June 07, 2009
UK House Prices Rise for Second Time in Three Months / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nationwide
• House prices rose by 1.2% in May
• Annual rate of decline improves sharply from -15.0% to -11.3%
• Low supply levels may explain some of the improvement in price trends
Saturday, June 06, 2009
Government Mortgage Support helps Save Home Owners From Repossession / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Submissions
Fewer people are losing their homes, due to measures introduced by the government to support homeowners during the current economic climate.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 03, 2009
UK House Prices on the Rise / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: LiveCharts
Pending home sales climbed 6.7 per cent in April, which is the highest single monthly jump in about eight years. Pending sales are deals made by a buyer to close on a previously owned home.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 26, 2009
UK House Prices Summer Bounce an Illusion / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Andrew_Butter
The Value of Housing in UK: Update April 09…The Up-Tick is An Illusion. - The recent up-tick in house prices in UK was a glimmer of hope, I'm sorry to say that I think that's a false dawn.
Last September I wrote an essay putting the peak to trough in UK in the range 34% to 40% (Value of Housing Markets in USA and UK Past, Present, and Future ) (its gone about 20% now on the Nationwide), in January I had another look and said 33% peak to trough. (UK Housing Market Will Not Bottom Before 2012).
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 18, 2009
UK House Prices Moving in the Right Direction According to RightMove / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK house prices rose for fourth month in a row according to Britain's biggest online estate agent, Rightmove. House prices surged by 2.4% for the month to 9th May, which takes average house prices on Rightmoves index to £227,441, down 6.2% on an annualised basis.
Thursday, May 14, 2009
UK House Prices Bottom or Temporary Summer Bounce? / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK House prices have now fallen by more than 22% from the peak and down 13-16% over the past 12 months with the most recent data across a series of house price indexes such as that of the local government & communities, Nationwide and even the Halifax suggestive of near term support for UK house prices as we move into the seasonally stronger summer months.
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
UK Property Watch - Can You Beat the Housing Market? / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Yesterday marked the second hourly showing of the BBC's daily "UK Property Watch" programme shown on BBC2 at 8pm that began on Monday and is set to end this Friday. The aim is to provide analysis on the UK housing market and regional house price trends. However having watched two episodes, I get the distinct impression that the BBC have padded out the useful content of perhaps just two hours of programming to over five hours just to fill the TV schedule which has resulted in repetitive interviews asking the same questions of alternative guests that are either in favour of a UK housing market bottom or are against a property bottom. In fact the same questions are being asked of the same guests as I am sure Merryn Somerset Webb of the Money Week magazine gave near enough the same answers to the questions as she did during yesterdays show.
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
UK House Prices False Signs of a Bottom on Government Data / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The latest UK Government House Prices index data (Communities and Local Government) showed a continuing downtrend with the annual pace of decline accelerating in March to -13.6% from Februarys -12.3%. However the quarterly change showed a significant improvement with a -3.8% drop for Q1 2009, against the housing market crash the occurred in Q4 2008 of -6.4% (-25.6% annualised), which is falsely being jumped upon by some as signs of a housing market approaching bottom.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 11, 2009
UK Property Watch: Most People in Britian Don't Want House Prices to Rise / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: BBC
Most people in Great Britain would not welcome a pick up in house prices, suggests a poll commissioned for BBC Two's Propertywatch.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 09, 2009
UK Housing Bear Market Forecast 2009 Update / News_Letter / UK Housing
By: NewsLetter
May 7th, 2009 Issue #33 Vol. 3Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 07, 2009
UK House Prices Bear Market Trend Forecast 2009 Update / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
With the stealth stocks bull market bouncing along nicely towards the mid May interim target of Dow 8,750, attention is increasingly being drawn towards green shoots of economic recovery elsewhere, specifically in the UK housing market which has endured a severe bear market that began following the August 2007 peak. Therefore this in depth analysis seeks to provide an up to date answer to the question as to whether the UK housing market is near a bottom or not, following the release of UK house price data for April which showed an headline drop of 1.7% for April though the non seasonally adjusted figure showed a pause with average UK house prices now standing at £157,156 down 22% on the August 2007 Peak.
Thursday, April 30, 2009
UK House Prices Continue Falling in April / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nationwide
• The price of a typical house fell by 0.4% in April
• Housing measures in the budget are welcome, but are unlikely to turn things around
• Economic fundamentals will continue to dominate housing market prospects
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
The UK House Price /Gold Ratio: Bricks vs. Bars / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Adrian_Ash
"Top to bottom in the 1970s, house prices measured in gold lost four-fifths of their value all told..."
BEWARE THE CLAMOR to call the bottom in house prices.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
UK Housing Market Bottoming? / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) is reporting that the average sales per surveyor increased for the first time since late 2007 as the number of sales ticked up to 9.7 from a low of 9.6 last month as record low interest rates of 0.5% have cut the mortgage servicing costs for homeowners coupled with the government running an unsustainable £160 billion per annum budget deficit as the government announces ever more reckless stimulus packages and thereby attempting to entice prospective home buyers back into the housing market, though an up tick from 9.6 to 9.7 in the number of sales amounts to a pretty insignificant move of just 1%.
Friday, March 20, 2009
FSA to Regulate UK House Prices Lower / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The FSA has proposed changes to limit the amount of money people can borrow for house purchases which includes minimum deposits of as much as 15% of the value of the property as part of the Chairman of the FSA, Lord Turners review into the banking crisis. The aim of the review is to put an end to the high risk mortgages that at the height of the housing boom had the likes of the now nationalised Northern Rock bank allowing mortgages of upto 125% of the value of property, far in excess of the X3.5 safe salary multiple which witnessed self certification mortgages of as much as X10 salaries with the accepted norm of more than X5 salaries. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, March 12, 2009
Telegraph Runs with Improbable UK House Price Crash Forecast of Another 55% / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The mainstream press as illustrated by The Telegraph has run with a house price forecast by Numis Securities (NS) that states that UK house prices could fall by a further whopping 55%, that is a rather incredible forecast to make in light of the of 22% fall to date. NS states that a buy to let investor panic will trigger an avalanche of further selling. I am not aware of Numis Securities past forecasts, however analysis of the perma-bear Capital Economics that has consistently been cropping up with bearish house price forecasts since at least 2002 in the mainstream media illustrated the propensity to reprint press releases with-out checking the facts as to whether the forecast is actually probable or not. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
Why UK House Prices Crash is Set to Continue / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: MoneyWeek
I am detecting a certain amount of bullishness in the housing market of late. A number of people with cash are talking about "buying later this year", or "taking advantage of these low rates". Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
UK Repossessions Hit 40,000 as Housing Mortgage Meltdown Continues / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Council of Mortgage Lenders reports 40,000 repossessions for 2008. My original forecast for 2008 was for some 75,000 repossessions therefore 40,000 for 2008 is a surprisingly much lower figure than expected with possible reasons as follows: Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 12, 2009
UK House Prices Crash 2009- Update / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
A cheer went up amongst housing market participants across the land as UK house prices rose by nearly 1% in January 2009 as measured by the Halifax. However the government is throwing everything including the kitchen sink at the housing market to bring about a halt to the ongoing crash in nominal terms. The amount of money printed has mushroomed from the £50 billion of April 2008. that I warned was just the tip of the ice-berg that would soon mushroom into the hundreds of billions, we are now in the process of leaving the hundreds of billions behind and moving into the trillions, sums that seriously risk the bankruptcy of Britain.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 12, 2009
UK Housing Mortgage Market Lending Crash / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) mortgage lending data released today shows a 49% crash in the number of mortgages granted to home buyers to just 516,000 which is the lowest number since the mid 1970's property crash.
There were 32,000 house purchase loans in December, a decline of 5% from November and the lowest level since monthly records began in 2002.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 29, 2009
Commercial Property Crash of 2009 / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: MoneyWeek
Don't be fooled - commercial property is no bargain - They're an upbeat bunch in Southampton , it seems. The BBC took a trip down the local high street yesterday to ask shopkeepers in the town: "are you more or less optimistic about your business than 12 months ago?"
And the answer? Three-quarters of the panel were still "defiantly optimistic about business prospects for 2009".
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 08, 2009
UK Housing Market Forecast to 2012 / News_Letter / UK Housing
By: NewsLetter
January 5th , 2009 Issue #1 Vol. 3Recent house price data as released by the Halifax showed that UK house prices have plunged by more than 20% from the peak of August 2007, which has fulfilled much of the original forecast made in August 2007 for a minimum fall of 15% for the UK housing market and 25% for London, therefore this analysis seeks to project the forecast trend for UK house prices for the next 3 years into 2012.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 06, 2009
UK Housing Market Will Not Bottom Before 2012 / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Andrew_Butter
Unless "Farrell's" Cycle is broken - Yesterdays News was predicting when the housing bubble would go pop; the game today is predicting the bottom.
In August it was hard to understand how the bursting bubble would affect (or infect), the economy, because thanks to the clever bean counters, information on the number and size of the naked bets was well hidden from outsiders, just as it was from as shareholders, government, and even, by the cloak of denial, from the gamblers themselves.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 04, 2009
UK Housing Market Crash and Depression Forecast 2007 to 2012 / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Recent house price data as released by the Halifax showed that UK house prices have plunged by more than 20% from the peak of August 2007, which has fulfilled much of the original forecast made in August 2007 for a minimum fall of 15% for the UK housing market and 25% for London, therefore this analysis seeks to project the forecast trend for UK house prices for the next 3 years into 2012.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 14, 2008
Abbey Squeezes Mortgage Payers Whilst Losing Billions to Wallstreet Fraud / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
After the British government literally handed over a blank cheque to Britain's biggest banks on the basis of promises to provide liquidity to British home owners and business, more evidence emerged that this is not happening as the Abbey's practice of sending out letters that calls on ultra small print that seeks to financially crucify home owners that during Britain's house price crash of 2007 to 2008 have increasingly fallen into negative equity. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 01, 2008
Collapse in UK Mortgage Lending / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Bank of England announced that UK mortgage lending collapsed in October, falling to the second lowest figure since records began at just £459mln, down 70% on the month and only 6% of the October 2007 levels which followed the collapse of Northern Rock Bank in Sept 07. The data continues to suggest that bank lending continues to tighten despite the £500 billion bank bailout of early October.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 27, 2008
Nationwide UK House Price Forecasts Track Record / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The latest housing market commentary from the Nationwide
Chief Economist Fionnuala Earley states - "In spite of the moderation in house price falls recorded in November, with the economy in recession, conditions do not appear very favourable for a swift recovery in the housing market. The labour market is weakening, which will inevitably hinder market demand, particularly when property remains expensive relative to earnings. With prices falling at their current rate there is also little incentive for new borrowers to hurry into the market. However, there are a number of measures which should provide some support to the market in general and help existing and potential homeowners in these difficult times."Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 27, 2008
UK House Price Falls Moderate in November to -0.4% / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nationwide
• Prices fall by 0.4% in November• Annual rate of fall moderates to 13.9%
• Deep interest rate cuts will provide support for borrowers
• Fiscal measures may help housing market indirectly, but policies to support funding markets may be more likely to speed recovery
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 20, 2008
Kirstie and Phil's Location, Location, Location Returns as UK House Prices Crash / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Kirstie and Phil self professed property experts make a return to the UK's TV screens with a more muted version of their long standing delusionally bullish UK property candy floss show titled location, location, location that helped feed the get on the property ladder frenzy of the last few years.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 07, 2008
UK Housing Market 15% Crash Forecast Fulfilled / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The latest house price data by the Halifax shows that UK house prices have fallen by more than 16% from the peak of August 2007 and October 2008. The crash in both US and UK housing markets over the last 12 months was increasingly followed in September by the bankrupt banks collapsing one by one like a chain of dominos with governments rushing to their rescue during September and early october to the tune of unheard of amounts of tax payers money that now runs to collectively over $3 trillion. This first triggered near panic interest rate cuts in October of 0.5% which was yesterday followed by true panic cut of 1.5% which takes UK interests rates down to 50 year lows.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 30, 2008
UK House Prices Crash by 14.6% / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nationwide
- Prices fall by 1.4% in October
- Reluctance of sellers to reduce asking prices could be hindering market activity
- Recognition that the UK is heading into recession opens door to sharp cuts in rates
Thursday, October 02, 2008
UK House Price Crash Worse than 1990's Nationwide / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nationwide
• The price of a typical house fell by 1.7% in September• Market weakness not surprising given ongoing turmoil and many risks remain
• House prices will continue to fall in short term, but longer term prospects are more sound Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 09, 2008
UK House Price Crash Spreads Economic Chill Implying Interest Rate Cuts / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nationwide
- The price of a typical house fell by 1.9% in August
- More borrowers opt for fixed rate loans to protect their payments in uncertain times
- Gloomy Governor opens the door to rate cuts
| Headlines | August 2008 | July 2008 |
| Monthly index * Q1 '93 = 100 | 329.5 | 335.9 |
| Monthly change* | -1.9% | -1.5% |
| Annual change | -10.5% | -8.1% |
| Average price | £164,654 | £169,316 |
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 03, 2008
UK Housing Market Rescue Plan Will Fail as Government Seeks to Lasso First Time Buyers / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Whilst house prices are tumbling at the rate of 2% a month, the labour government finally revealed its feeble attempt to interfere with market forces by suspending the 1% stamp duty taxed on house purchases on properties up to a value of £175,000 for a period of 1 year. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, August 27, 2008
UK Idiotic Tax Policy Demolishes Properties / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
Previously we discussed the Growing Herd Of White Elephants in the US. Today, let's take a look at white elephants in the UK.Preemptive White Elephant Demolition
The Telegraph is reporting Buildings razed turning British cities into 'bombsites' .
Hundreds of buildings are being razed as a result of an empty property tax, turning British cities into "bombsites", a government regeneration chief said.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 08, 2008
UK Housing Market Freezes as Chancellor Dithers Over Stamp Duty / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The crashing UK housing market is heading for a further deep freeze following speculation that the Chancellor, Alistair Darling is about to suspend the Stamp Duty tax charged on house purchases in an attempt to stabalise the housing market. The few buyers that are in a position to proceed with home purchases are now delaying completing contracts or pulling out altogether and thereby likely to make the collapse in the level of market transactions even worse, thus contributing to the squeeze on sellers, estate agents and other housing market transaction beneficiaries.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 31, 2008
UK House Prices Falls Accelerate to -8.1% / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nationwide
- The price of a typical house fell by 1.7% in July
- The price of a typical house is now £15,000 lower than this time last year
- Housing purchase activity reaches a new low
- Weakening economic conditions raise the likelihood of earlier interest rate cuts
Monday, July 28, 2008
UK House Prices to Rise by 25% States National Housing Federation / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The National Housing Federation (NHF) is forecasting that UK house prices will rise by 25% by 2013, that will take house prices upto an estimated £274,000 by 2013 from their current levels of approx £180,000 based on the Halifax House Price data. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
UK House Price Crash of Summer 2008 / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The latest UK house price data as released by Rightmove shows that the UK housing market crash continues to accelerate by registering a fall of 1.8% for July 08. The rate of descent on an annualised basis now extends to -11% and on a quarterly basis to -6.7%, far above the originally forecast crash rate of 5% per quarter as per analysis of November 2007 for the quarter April to June 08, which came in at -5.8%. The housing market is in full panic selling mode, as property owners slashing prices are met with silence from potential home buyers. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 11, 2008
UK House Price Crash In Progress! / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
| Editors Note: Housing Market Forecast Updated December 2008 - UK Housing Market Crash and Depression Forecast 2007 to 2012 |
The Halifax house price data for June revealed a 2% fall in house prices for the month or a loss of value of £3,500 from May, house prices are now down 6.1% on an seasonally adjusted basis, which is a far cry from March 2008 when the bank's chief economist was painting a bullish picture for house prices. However the housing market is in CRASH mode for the quarter April to June 08, as forecast by the Market Oracle in November 2007 -
"house prices could register a drop of as much as 5% in the quarter April 08 to June 08" Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, July 05, 2008
UK Housing Bust to Hit British Pound / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: I've pointed out many times here in my Money and Markets column that interest rates and economic growth are always the two primary fundamental drivers of currency prices. Therefore, it's no stretch to conclude that housing has been the Achilles' heel for the U.S. dollar.
But what if there's another major currency country that has a much worse outlook for its housing market? Would we then expect bad housing news to play a similar role in pushing its respective currency lower? I think the short answer is: Yes!
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 02, 2008
UK House Price Crash is Here as Forecast! / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Nationwide following on from a series of house price data releases by several mortgage banks and institutions in recent weeks confirmed that UK House price declines are set to accelerate over the summer months as the market heads for a crash that I first warned of occurring in the quarter April to June 2008 in November 2007. -
"house prices could register a drop of as much as 5% in the quarter April 08 to June 08"Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 01, 2008
UK Housing Market Transactions Slump to Historic Low / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nationwide
• House prices fell by 0.9% in June, less than half the rate of the previous month• Prices are 6.3% lower than this time last year, but remain 4% higher than 2 years ago
• House purchase transactions remain subdued across the UK
• Northern Irish and Scottish activity levels stand out at each extreme
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 27, 2008
UK Housing Bear Market Threatening Economic Deflation / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
May saw another sharp plunge in UK house prices towards what is likely to be termed as a mini-crash in UK housing market for the quarter April to June 08. Many homeowners who bought early into the current boom may be consoling themselves with having built up an healthy level of equity that is able to weather the downturn in UK housing market, after all someone buying 10 years ago would have racked up gains of over 180% to the 2007 peak and even after the initial forecast for a 2 year bear market if 15% would still stand to be some 140% richer. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 24, 2008
UK Housing Mortgage Meltdown for Purchases and Equity Withdrawals / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Mortgages for home purchases and equity withdrawals continues to slump for May data released by the British Bankers Association, falling to just 27,968 approved loans down from 34,752 for April 08 and down by 56% from a year earlier. These are the worst lending figures since the BBA started recording mortgage data in 1997 and confirms that the UK housing market is trending towards a 1990's style housing market depression. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 23, 2008
UK House Prices GDP Adjusted Real Trend Forecast / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The UK housing bear market continues to gather momentum as the mainstream increasingly awakens to the prospects of falling house prices following house prices going negative on a year on year basis for Aprils house price data.
This analysis forms part of a series of articles that seeks to extend the current Market Oracle forecast forward for several years well beyond the current forecast for a 15% fall in nominal house prices between the August 2007 and August 2009 (as of August 2007).
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 20, 2008
UK Property Auction Sale Values Slump by 44% From a Year Ago / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: David_Sandeman
Welcome to the June newsletter that reviews auction activity for May 2008. Continuing market conditions have seen the overall sales rate slip 3 points from last month to 56%. It should not be forgotten however that the auction process did sell over 2,100 lots in May, no mean achievement in this market. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
How Inflation Will Destroy Home Owners Equity / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The UK housing boom has seen house prices rise from a low of £60.096 in 1993 (Halifax UK:NSA) to a high of £201.081 by August 2007. A whopping gain of 334%. The below graph illustrates the remarkable strong trend higher, where even the measured forecast downtrend of 15% only measures as a minor blip on the long-term trend of ever higher house prices.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
UK House Prices Real Inflation Adjusted Long-term Trend / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
In recent months inflation has started to breakout to the upside, as CPI began to soar in February, hitting 3% in April and destined to pass 4% this year, busting straight through the Bank of England's 3% upper limit.
Leaving aside the headline house prices, inflation has huge consequences for the real value of house prices which impacts on the wealth effect of the consumer economy which comprises some 65% of the UK economy.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
UK Housing Market Seizes Up / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
The Telegraph is reporting House sales fall is steepest since the 1970s .The number of houses changing hands has "collapsed" to the lowest level in 30 years, an influential housing market survey shows today. Its report also says that gazundering, the controversial practice of buyers dropping their offer price after they have agreed to purchase a property, has returned.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 06, 2008
UK House Price Forecast 2008- Bear Market is Only Beginning / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
| Editors Note: Housing Market Forecast Updated December 2008 - UK Housing Market Crash and Depression Forecast 2007 to 2012 |
UK House Prices, the current bottom line - Down 6.4% year on year, Down £14,600 from the peak, Down 7.2% from the peak. Down 3.6% on a quarterly basis. The Halifax, Britains biggest mortgage bank's housing market data for May 08 continues to confirm the Market Oracle forecast for a 15% drop from August 07 to August 09, and a 7.5% drop for 2008. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 03, 2008
Housing Market Boom and Bust Cycles Driven by Real House Price Values / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The UK housing bear market is now into its 9th month as of the peak in August 2007. This article analyses the real value of UK houses prices based on average earnings as part of ongoing preliminary analysis towards the extension of the existing 2 year housing market forecast for a 15% drop from August 2007 to August 2009.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 29, 2008
Nationwide- UK House Prices Plunge by £5,000, 2.5% in May / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nationwide
• House prices fell by 2.5% in May• Prices are 4.4% lower than this time last year, but remain 5% higher than 2 years ago
• Falling house prices combined with higher inflation makes MPC decision more difficult still
• Borrowers are better placed to weather the storm than in the 1990s
• Tighter credit conditions should help the longer term sustainability of the market
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
US and UK Housing Bear Market Trends / News_Letter / UK Housing
By: NewsLetter
The housing bear markets continue to bite into economic activity as the US heads for recession this year and the UK during 2009. The US is still showing no signs of a housing bottom having fallen by 3.1% in the first quarter of 2008 according to government statistics, and foreclosures rising to a all time high as borrowers walk away from homes sinking into negative equity. The UK housing bear market has now entered its 9th month following the peak of August 2007, having gone negative on a year on year basis for April 08 data, which was one of the primary reasons for the meltdown in the UK Labour parties vote in the recent string of May elections.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 26, 2008
US and UK Housing Bear Market Trends / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The housing bear markets continue to bite into economic activity as the US heads for recession this year and the UK during 2009. The US is still showing no signs of a housing bottom having fallen by 3.1% in the first quarter of 2008 according to government statistics, and foreclosures rising to a all time high as borrowers walk away from homes sinking into negative equity. The UK housing bear market has now entered its 9th month following the peak of August 2007, having gone negative on a year on year basis for April 08 data, which was one of the primary reasons for the meltdown in the UK Labour parties vote in the recent string of May elections.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 23, 2008
UK Auction Houses See Surge in Lots Offered and Slump in Sales / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: David_Sandeman
Welcome to the May newsletter that looks primarily at auction activity in April 2008.
The lack of liquidity in the money markets has again been reflected in the subdued sale rate with only 59% of lots finding buyers. This is the national figure and do take a look at the regional variation which is shown in the tables at the bottom of this newsletter.
Thursday, May 22, 2008
Council of Mortgage Lenders 2008 Housing Market Forecast Demolished / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Council of Mortgage Lender (CML) revised their forecast for UK House prices for 2008 from an anticipated rise of 1% as of Oct 07 to now project a fall in prices of 7%. The CML, inline with its member institutions has a vested interest in talking up the housing market as evidenced by the inaccuracy of their housing market forecasts during periods of falling house prices.
As a reminder to readers, the Market Oracle forecast for UK house prices made ahead of the actual peak in the housing market in August 2007 is for a 15% drop over 2 years from August 2007 to August 2009, therefore forecasting a 7% to 7.5% drop for the year 2008.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
Caroline Flint UK Housing Market Briefing Notes in FULL / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Caroline Flint the UK housing ministers full cabinet meeting first page briefing notes on the state of the UK housing market follows in full. In summary the housing minister expects UK house prices to fall this year by between 5% and 10% which is precisely in line with the Market Oracle forecast for a 7.5% drop for 2008 as of August 2007 (UK House prices to fall by 15% between August 2007 and August 2009).Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 12, 2008
Credit Crunch Bites UK Mortgage Payers as Risk of Repossession Soars / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The number of home owners at risk of repossession surged in the first quarter of 2008. Home owners served with county court claims jumped by 16% to 38,700. Home owners actually issued with eviction orders surged by 17% to 27,500. The Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) upped their estimate for the number of repossessions for 2008 to 45,000. The Market Oracle forecast as of August 07 is for 70,000 repossessions this year, though the actual number will probably be around 60,000 as the CML repossession statistics tend to under report the true number of repossessions.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 11, 2008
UK Housing Market Surge In Mortgage Repossession Orders / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Mick_Phoenix
Welcome to the Weekly Report. This week we look at Gordon Brown the UK Prime Minister, US and UK mortgage markets and the US consumer.
We are all aware of the US mortgage problems which are now beginning to show up within prime mortgages but some people, outside the UK, might not be so aware of the problem growing in the 5th largest economy in the World.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 08, 2008
UK House Prices Tumbling- Interest Rate Conundrum / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK house price data from Britains biggest mortgage banks for April 08 now show negative house price inflation year on year. Statistics released earlier than usual by the the Nationwide that house prices have now fallen by 1% on a year earlier, closely followed by the Halifax that also shows house prices down by 1%. This was originally forecast by the Market Oracle for the April 2008 house price data in the analysis of November 2007.
Despite the fall, the Nationwide put a positive spin on bad news by alluding to the Bank of England rate cuts and liquidly measures that would stabalise the housing market: "the Bank’s measures should help to restore a more orderly transition and ultimately bring about a more stable market."
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
UK Housing Market Weakness Stretches into April / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nationwide
- House prices fell for the sixth consecutive month in April
- The price of a typical house is now 1% lower than this time last year
- The Bank of England bond exchange scheme should help to improve financial market liquidity
- More than 5 million borrowers have benefited from Bank of England rate cuts
Sunday, April 20, 2008
UK House Price Futures Market Confirms Sharp Fall in House Prices During 2008 / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The UK House price futures market has been in existence for some 10 years now and is based on the Halifax House Price Index data. The market is managed by IG Index and operates under the principle of a spread betting market maker.
Current IG Index quotes against actual published Halifax Index data :
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
Housing Market Worst Since 1978- Heading for April Apocalypse? / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) report confirms that the UK housing market is in countrywide meltdown mode. House prices are falling at their fastest pace in 30 years (since records began). The net balance between those reporting price rises against price falls deteriorated to a reading of -78.5 in the three months to March 08, from -65.7 in February 08.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 11, 2008
Tumbling UK Housing Market Leading to Sterling Devaluation / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Gary_Dorsch
Economic events in the United States often provide a sneak preview of what's around the corner for the British economy. Both countries run large external trade deficits, and much like the US, the British economy has been expanding on little else than the availability of easy credit and asset price inflation in the housing market. The ties between the US and UK run even deeper. About half of the profits for FTSE companies come from overseas, and 15% from US-based affiliates. Imaginative lending practices fueled a doubling of British home prices over the past six-years, the key engine of growth for the world's fifth largest economy. But British borrowers now face a perilous situation where their home values are tumbling, and the local banking oligarchs are lifting their lending rates, in order to recoup big losses of up to 20 billion pounds in toxic sub-prime mortgages.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 08, 2008
UK House Prices Plunge Over the Cliff / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
| Editors Note: Housing Market Forecast Updated December 2008 - UK Housing Market Crash and Depression Forecast 2007 to 2012 |
UK house prices plunged by 2.5% in March (Halifax seasonally adjusted), the fall was far bigger than estimates and points to an acceleration in the pace of house price falls across the UK.
The credit crisis is continuing to lead to a much tighter mortgage lending environment as highlighted in December's article. Mortgages continue to vanish from lenders shelves, with the total number of products having been reduced from 11,000 in May 2007 to just over 3000 today. The tightening is as a consequence of risk averse lenders seeking to repair their balance sheets from US mortgage related losses and batton down the hatches in advance of a surge in repossessions and mortgage defaults amongst UK borrowers.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 02, 2008
UK Housing Mortgage Market Crunch / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The UK housing market continues to trend lower towards the Market Oracle forecast of negative house price inflation on release of Aprils house price data in May. The Housing market was hit today by further news of withdrawal of more mortgage products that has seen the mortgage products market now shrink by 2/3rds from a year earlier. First Direct announced that it would no longer be offering mortgage products to new customers. This follows hot on the heals of many banks and building societies making borrowing far more difficult, the aim being to reduce their exposure to the UK mortgage market.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, March 28, 2008
Falling UK House Prices Point to April Rate Cut / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nationwide
- House price growth slows to lowest level in twelve years
- Clear change in consumers’ housing market sentiment
- Outlook more downbeat, but within forecast range
- MPC expected to bring rate cut forward to April
Monday, March 24, 2008
BBC Shows Re-runs of Old Property Shows From the Housing Boom / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
It can be confusing watching UK broadcast TV housing market programming, as I am finding that the property shows being aired are more often repeats captured from the heights of the housing boom. Viewers could be confused into thinking that what they are watching is current programming as usually there is no clear indication of the date of the original filming.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
Calls on the Government and the Mortgage Industry to Help UK Homebuyers / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: MoneyFacts
On the eve of the launch of the first ever Moneyfacts mortgage report “Tougher times in the UK residential mortgage market”, Andrew Hagger of Moneyfacts.co.uk comments on the following topics:Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
RICS Data Confirms UK Housing Market Heading for 1990's Style Crash / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
A matter of days after soothing words on the prospects for UK house prices for 2008 were issued by the chief economist of Britain's largest Mortgage Bank (The Halifax), the Royal Institute of
Chartered Surveyors released data today which shows the worst margin between rising and falling house prices since the height of the 1990's property crash.
The RICS data shows that only 4% of surveyors reported a price rise against 57% reporting price falls, thus resulting in a net negative reading of 53%, which seasonally adjusts to a 64% negative reading, the worst since June 1990. Stocks of unsold inventory continue to build up on surveyors books to levels not seen in a decade and up more than 50% over the last 12 months.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 10, 2008
FSA Campaign to help UK Homeowners Worried about Meeting their Mortgage Repayments / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Submissions
New figures published by the Financial Services Authority (FSA) today show that one in five mortgage holders are concerned about meeting their repayments in the next 12 months. When asked how they would meet these costs, a quarter of them said they had no plans.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, March 08, 2008
UK House Prices Fall in February- Home Owners have Lost £7,600 in 6 months! / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Seasonally adjusted house prices fell in February by 0.3% to £196,649 (Halifax:SA), a fall of £600. None seasonally adjusted house prices are now down £7,600 since the peak made in August 2007 which equates to an average drop of £1,266 per month in equity. This is against an interest rate implied cut of 0.5% on interest repayments on an average UK mortgage of £150,000, or just £62.50 per month (Rate cuts inline with Sept 07 forecast). Therefore housing market commentators expecting UK interest rate cuts to support the housing market need to revisit their methodology of calculating the difference between implied impact of rate cuts i.e. £62.50 per month against that of the loss of equity per month of £1,266. I say implied impact of rate cuts as the credit crisis has ensured that the spread between bank mortgage rates and the Bank of England Base Rate has widened, therefore effectively not entirely passing on the rate cut to mortgage customers.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 02, 2008
UK House Prices Tumble Tracking GDP Growth Rate Lower / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nationwide
- House prices fell by 0.5% in February, the fourth consecutive monthly decline
- The annual rate of house price inflation fell from 4.2% to 2.7%
- UK recession “a remote risk for the UK economy”
| Headlines | February 2008 | January 2008 |
|---|---|---|
| Monthly index * Q1 '93 = 100 | 363.3 |
365.0 |
| Monthly change* | -0.5% |
-0.3% |
| Annual change | 2.7% |
4.2% |
| Average price | £179,358 |
£180,473 |
* seasonally adjusted
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, March 01, 2008
UK Mortgage Banks Call in the Loans - Housing Market Deflation / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The British Bankers Association mortgage lending statistics reveal a contraction in the total amount of outstanding mortgage debt amongst its UK member banks, of nearly £6 billion from the peak set in October 2007. Whilst the amount may seem small in terms of the size of total mortgage debt of some $1.2 trillions, it is however opposite to the atmosphere of rising mortgage debt that sustained the housing bull market.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
UK House Prices Fall for 5 Months in a Row- Housing Market Will Go Negative April 08 / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Hometracks house price data released on Monday points to house prices in England and Wales falling for 5 straight months in a row as banks tightened lending criteria as the risks of residential housing market bad debt exposure continues to grow. Annual UK house price inflation fell to a near 2 year low of 1.4%. The hometrack data is in line with the Market Oracle forecast as of August 2007 for a fall in average UK house prices of 15% over two years to August 2009.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 08, 2008
UK House Prices on Target for 15% Fall Despite Interest Rate Cuts / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK House prices fell by £4,000 (2.1%) in January 2008 (Halifax), the average price falling to £191,275, down £9,806 (4.8%) from the August 2007 peak of £201,081. The Market Oracle forecast as of August 2007 is for a fall in average house prices of 15% over two years to August 2009. UK interest rates were cut yesterday by a further 0.25% taking interest rates down by 0.5% from its peak of 5.75% (Forecast December 2006), the cuts to date and further anticipated cuts during 2008 are being mistakenly taken by many market commentators, economists and large mortgage banks such as the Halifax to imply that UK House price inflation will be neutral during 2008. Therefore this article illustrates why house price inflation will start going negative by April 2008. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 04, 2008
Bursting the UK House Price Bubble - BBC1 at 8.30pm Today / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: BBC
Mortgage lenders have called for tighter rules to stop possible mortgage fraud involving the sale of newly built city-centre flats.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 31, 2008
UK House Prices Fall - Buy to Let Now an Unsatisfactory Investment / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nationwide
- House prices fell by a modest 0.1% in January, the third consecutive monthly decline
- The annual rate of house price inflation edged down from 4.8% to 4.2%
- Housing market conditions have loosened further, but there are tentative signs that demand may have bottomed out
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
UK Housing Bear Market Confirmed / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK house prices slumped in the quarter to December 07, with London leading the way as momentum gathers towards the 2 year forecast for an average decline of 15% by August 2009. The mortgage banking sector is only just beginning to feel the impact of the housing slump as the number of foreclosures (repossessions) is expected to surge to a record busting 80,000 for 2008 from 40,000 last year. Northern Rock was the first to go bust, other banks will follow. But in the meantime watch out for other mortgage lenders, especially those exposed to the buy to let sector such as Paragon to be pushed towards bankruptcy, down 90% from its highs. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 28, 2007
UK Housing Market Movers and Shakers of 2007 / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nationwide
• Almost one third of Nationwide’s survey of 30 towns and cities saw double-digit house price growth in 2007 • St Albans remains the most expensive town in the UK with an average house price of almost £350,000 • Belfast saw the fastest rate of house price growth in the UK – house prices rose by £200 a dayRead full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 28, 2007
UK House Prices Fall by 0.5% During December / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nationwide
- House prices fell by 0.5% in December, the second consecutive monthly decline
- The average price of a UK property is £8,334 higher than a year ago
- Rate cuts will help but are unlikely to re-ignite the housing market as in 2005
Friday, December 21, 2007
UK Commercial Properties Crash Looms as Property Investment Fund Frozen / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Britain's fourth biggest insurer, Friends Provident froze its Property Fund on Thursday, thereby denying over 110,000 investors the ability to liquidate their investments. The property fund has an estimated value of more than £1.2 billion or $2.5 billions. The insurance company stated that investors will not be able to gain access to their funds for a period of six months due to a sharp fall in its cash reserves as investors took fright from the collapsing UK housing market, both residential and commercial.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 17, 2007
UK House Prices Fall 3.2% in December - On Target for 2008 Crash / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Rightmove survey announced a 3.2% drop in UK House price asking prices in the month from Mid November to mid December. This was the sharpest decline since rightmove's records began in 2002. The sharpest drop of 6.8% was in London with average house prices falling by a whopping £28,000 in one month.
Rightmove sited the implementation of the home information packs (HIPs) for the sharp drop. The impact of the HIPs was inline with the Market Oracle warning of 23rd November 07 - UK Housing Market to be Hit by the Big HIPs Freeze During December.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 06, 2007
UK House Prices Slump 1.1% - Interest Rate Cut? / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The UK Housing Market fell sharply in November, registering a 1.1% price drop according to Britain's biggest mortgage lender, the Halifax. The British Pound fell sharply on the news and stocks soared in anticipation of deep cuts in UK interest rates as the Housing Market has its first consecutive decline for 3 months in a row since 1995. The credit freeze is now in its 5th month with the interbank rate soaring to 6.65% increasing the chance of an interest rate cut at today's Bank of England MPC Meeting.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 05, 2007
UK Home Owners Unable to Refinance Mortgages As Fixed Rates Expire During 2008 / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Nearly 1.5 million homeowners fixed rate mortgages taken out during the past 3 years reset to much higher variable interest rates during 2008. Now Clive Briault of the FSA has waded in with a warning that borrowers will find it increasingly difficult to obtain further favorable refinancing due to the tightening in the credit markets as the now global bad debts credit crisis continues to unfold.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 05, 2007
Subprime Mortgages Continue to Vanish – Where will it end? / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: MoneyFacts
Latest research from Moneyfacts.co.uk reveals two thirds of sub prime products have vanished in the last six months. The credit crunch has virtually destroyed the sub prime buy to let market and made a significant dent in the residential market too.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 02, 2007
UK Housing Slump Gains Momentum as Properties Fail to Sell at Auction / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Home owners failing to sell properties through the traditional estate agency route are increasingly opting for the chance of a quick sale offered by Auction houses up and down Britain.
However the number of sales being achieved at auctions has plummeted, even after worried sellers rush to accept offers prior to the auction. The resulting supply overhang will result in further sharp falls in the housing market that will accumulate over the coming year as home owners price expectations are behind the housing curve and are forced to repeatedly cut prices.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 02, 2007
Mortgage Arrangement Fees Double / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: MoneyFacts
Latest Moneyfacts.co.uk research reveals the average mortgage arrangement fee has almost doubled during the last 2 years. Figures from November 2005 showed an average flat arrangement fee at £441. Today it stands at £827, with a massive 9% of prime deals now charging a percentage fee.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 30, 2007
UK House Prices Fall by 0.8% In November / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nationwide
- House prices fell by 0.8% in November, bringing the annual rate of increase down to 6.9%
- Sentiment in the market has weakened, but can be volatile
- Uncertainties remain, but underlying fundamentals continue to be supportive
- Introduction of final phase of HIPs may reduce available housing supply in the short term
Friday, November 30, 2007
UK House Prices Plunge 0.8% In November on Target for Forecast 15% Drop / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Nationwide, one of Britain's biggest mortgage Lenders announced a sharp 0.8% Drop in House Prices for November, the biggest fall for 12 years, bringing the annualised rate down sharply to 6.9%. Whilst at the same time the Bank of England reported a slump in new home buyer mortgage approvals to a 3 year low. The fall house prices is inline with the Market Oracle forecast for a 15% drop in UK House prices as of 22nd August 07. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 28, 2007
Sharp Drop in London House Prices / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Land Registry reported a 0.1% rise in UK house prices during October, down from the average of 0.7% during the past 12 months and thus bringing the annualised rate down to 8.1%
However, house prices in London fell sharply by 0.6%. The fall was much greater than any other region and represented the first fall since mid 2005.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 23, 2007
UK Housing Market to be Hit by the Big HIPs Freeze During December / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The British Government's decision to expand the requirement for ALL UK Home Sellers to provide a Home Information Pack as of 14th December 07, will likely result in a big freeze on transactions hitting the UK housing market from 14th December 07. As fewer properties are put onto the market and thereby less transactions take place. Whilst this could be construed as being short-term supportive of house prices, it will hit the housing sector hard, which includes mortgage lenders and estate agents that could see as much as a 25% drop in business over a short space of time, and therefore the expectations are for further shocks in the housing and financial sector, this time focused on estate agencies.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
UK House Price Declines Gather Pace As Surveyors Report Falling Prices / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Sarah_Jones
The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) Survey today revealed that 22.2% more surveyors are reporting house price drops, compared with 14.9% in September. This was worse than market expectations of a minus 20% reading accompanied by a surge in stock on estate agent books of 8.8%.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 10, 2007
Crash in UK House Prices Forecast for April 2008 As Buy to Let Investors Sell on Capital Gains Tax Change / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
| Editors Note: Housing Market Forecast Updated December 2008 - UK Housing Market Crash and Depression Forecast 2007 to 2012 |
The UK's property boom has to large part been fed by an army of buy to let investors (many of whom are amateur landlords).
This is illustrated by the estimate of 1,000,000 buy to let mortgages, up from barely 20,000 ten years ago. However for some time new buy to let investors have been increasingly banking on capital gains rather then rental incomes covering the costs, which given the most recent HBOS statistics of 2 months of consecutive price drops for Sept and Oct 07, increasingly looks less likely going forward and hence primes the buy to let market to lead the stampede for the exit, resulting in a sharp drop in UK house prices.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 09, 2007
UK Housing Bear Market Has Begun - House Prices Fall for Two Consecutive Months / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Britian's biggest mortgage bank HBOS's monthly house price statistics revealed that
UK House prices fell by 0.5% in October to £197,248. This follows a 0.6% drop in September, which is the first consecutive drop in house prices since May 2005, as the credit crunch hit the UK mortgage banking sector and five interest rate rises to 5.75% started to impact on affordability. The trend in UK house prices is now in line with the Market Oracle forecast for a 15% decline over the next 2 years as of 22nd August 2007. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 03, 2007
Buy Or Rent A House in the UK - Five Scenarios of Gains or Losses's over the Next Five Years / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The following analysis presents five scenarios that prospective home buyers can use to evaluate whether today is a good or bad time to buy depending on the scenario's that they deem to be the most probable. The analysis is especially geared towards first time buyers seeking to buy an average priced property of £200,000.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 31, 2007
UK House Prices Remain stubbornly Robust Despite Weakening Demand / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nationwide
- House prices rose strongly in October, but underlying market activity is clearly slowing
- Although demand is weakening, existing homeowners appear in no rush to sell
- New buy-to-let landlords will need a long investment horizon to realise good returns
Monday, October 29, 2007
UK Mortgage Approvals Slump and House Prices Register First Fall for Two Years / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Bank of England revealed today that the credit crunch resulted in a sharp drop in mortgage approvals during September 2007, falling to a 2 year low of 102,000 loans down from 108,000 loans in August 2007. The trend is expected to continue as surging repossessions result in more bad debt provisions and hence tighter borrowing requirements going forward. The credit crunch has seen the LIBOR rate (the rate at which Banks lend to one another) surge from 5.4% a year ago to more than 6.5% during September, with little reduction since.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, October 28, 2007
UK House Prices - Primary Reasons For a Sharp Fall / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Market Oracle expectations are for the UK housing market to fall by 15% over the next two years. However this decline is not expected to be a gradual trend but rather periods of stagnation punctuated by sharp falls which could be of more than 5% in a single quarter! Therefore this article looks at the primary driving forces that could lead to sharp falls in the UK housing market.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 19, 2007
Where have all the mortgages gone?– 40% less products available than three months ago! / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: MoneyFacts
Julia Harris, Mortgage Expert at Moneyfacts.co.uk – the leading independent financial comparison site, comments:“The mortgage market saw an extremely buoyant start to 2007, both in terms of the number of products to choose from – growing 22% in the first six month, but also as new lenders had recently entered the market and existing players explored new lending areas. But since its peak in July, products have been flying off the shelves.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 17, 2007
The Truth About UK Property – A Stretch Too Far / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Sarah_Jones
UK House prices have trebled over the last 10 years and analysts are debating whether this is the top of the market and what will happen to the value of people's homes. Getting a foothold, and staying, on the property ladder has never been so difficult. Whether it's buying, selling, renting or simply keeping up with the mortgage payments, nobody seems to know the right thing to do. Now Andrew Verity, BBC Radio 5 Live's Business and Finance expert, travels around the UK to explore the issues surrounding the property market in a bid to tell The Truth About Property. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 17, 2007
IMF Awakens to Possibility of UK House Price Crash / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that the UK Housing market could slump due to the impact of the ongoing credit crunch.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 11, 2007
UK House Prices Fall by Fastest Pace in 2 Years as Housing Market Slump Gathers Pace / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Royal Institute of Surveyors (RICS) monthly report shows house prices fell for a second consecutive month and are falling at their fastest pace in over 2 years, with 14.6% of surveyors reporting a fall in UK house prices.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, October 07, 2007
Tips For Graduates Keen To Get On The Housing Ladder / Personal_Finance / UK Housing
By: Nationwide
The summer is over, the studying complete, and, for numerous new graduates, full time working life is in full flow. For many, home-ownership will be the next landmark achievement to tick off the list but, with student debts and house prices continuing to rise, this may seem like an impossible challenge.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 04, 2007
UK Regional House Price Growth Sags In The Middle / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nationwide
- Weakest annual house price growth recorded in the Midlands
- Strong performance in London continues to widen the North-South gap
- Average house price in London breaks £300,000 barrier
- House price forecasts remain on track in most UK regions
- London first-time buyers won’t benefit from £250,000 stamp duty threshold
Friday, September 28, 2007
Credit Crunch Starting to Bite the Buy to Let Housing Sector / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: MoneyFacts
Julia Harris, Mortgage Expert at Moneyfacts.co.uk – the money search engine, comments: “While the prime residential sector has so far been largely unaffected by the sub prime crisis, the buy-to-let sector is beginning to show signs reminiscent of the subprime market over the last few weeks with tightening credit criteria, the withdrawal of products and rising fees.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 27, 2007
UK House Prices Appear to Shrug Off Credit Crunch in September / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nationwide
- House prices defied gloomy expectations and showed another gain in September
- But the trend growth of house prices is now the lowest since July 2006
- Credit conditions are now clearly tightening for leveraged borrowers
- The interest rate outlook has shifted from hawkish to dovish, which could provide some welcome relief to homeowners next year
Tuesday, September 25, 2007
UK Housing Market on Brink of Price Crash - Media Lessons from 1989! / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The UK Housing market is teetering on the brink of a crash led by the buy to let sector investors jumping ship. But the messages coming from the major banks and UK central bank are still benign. In many ways the situation is reminiscent of the initial stages of the the early 1990's property bust, which was also accompanied by soothing statements that ignored the facts on the ground as this article will illustrate.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 13, 2007
UK House Price Fall Signals Start of Housing Market Crash / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK House prices fell in August, which is for the first fall in prices since 2005. The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) stated that this was the first fall since October 2005, which coincided with a temporary lull in the UK interest rates raising cycle during 2005. Since which time UK interest rates have increased by a further 1.25%, and mortgage interest rates much further.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, September 08, 2007
250,000 UK Fixed Rate Mortgages to Reset 3pcent Higher This Winter / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nationwide
Nationwide reveals that over 250,000 borrowers will see their two year fixed rate mortgage mature between October and December 2007 and are likely to see their average monthly payments increase by around £200* per month as lenders start to charge them their standard variable rate.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 03, 2007
Financial Market Turmoil Poses Risks For the Housing Market / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nationwide
- House prices are unlikely to be significantly hit by market turmoil in the short term
- But dependence of UK economy on financial services poses a longer term risk
- Unexpectedly low inflation and financial market unrest has reduced the risk of a Bank Rate rise to 6%
Wednesday, August 22, 2007
UK Housing Market Crash of 2007 - 2008 and Steps to Protect Your Wealth / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
| Editors Note: Housing Market Forecast Updated December 2008 - UK Housing Market Crash and Depression Forecast 2007 to 2012 |
The Credit Crunch has been hitting the UK Mortgage Sector hard as many easy credit mortgage deals have been removed from the high street shelves in recent weeks. Despite central bank actions to ease financing terms and increase liquidity, this does not address the real issues of illiquid mortgage related bonds and expectations that the UK Housing Market will slump on the back of a surge in foreclosures. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, August 11, 2007
Mortgage Equity Withdrawal Syndrome. The Third Rail of the Housing Led Boom / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Dr_Housing_Bubble
Unless you've been living under a rock, it is apparent that there will be no summer bounce in housing. This comes as a grave shock to those that are entwined like a ball of yarn with the housing industry. We've created an entirely new generation of folks that think housing equity equals housing wealth. All of us have anecdotal stories of friends, family members, or ourselves tapping into home equity for vacations, consumption purchases, or using the HELOC to pay off other credit cards. The simplicity of getting money out of your home is so easy it is frightening.
Step one , you call the bank.
Thursday, July 26, 2007
Brakes Slammed on UK House Prices in July / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nationwide
- House price growth stalled in July, bringing annual growth back down into single digits
- A rise in interest rates to 6% is firmly on the horizon, but weak household income growth and mortgage payment shocks highlight the risk of monetary overkill
- The Housing Green Paper is a welcome step on housing supply but, as the recent flooding shows, the challenges ahead are substantial
Friday, July 20, 2007
Ten Top Tips For Selling Your Home / Personal_Finance / UK Housing
By: Nationwide
Nationwide research reveals the most important things to consider when selling a property
Following a recent report* of a reduction in the number of buyers visiting estate agents, the competition to sell property is stronger than ever.
Wednesday, July 04, 2007
FSA finds poor practice by intermediaries and lenders within sub-prime mortgage market / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Submissions
The Financial Services Authority (FSA) today published its latest review of the behaviour of intermediaries and lenders within the sub-prime mortgage market, which services consumers with impaired credit histories. It has found weaknesses in responsible lending practices and in firms' assessments of a consumer's ability to afford a mortgage. As a result the regulator has started enforcement action against five firms.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 15, 2007
We are on the Brink of a UK Housing Market Crash Warns Fool.co.uk / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Fool.co.uk
Household finances in British homes are at breaking point. With virtually no safety margin in the average household budget, a further rise in interest rates could tip many homeowners over the edge, according to a study by personal finance website Fool.co.uk .Currently, the gross income of the average household in the UK is £32,800 (1). This equates to a net income of £,700 (1) after adjusting for the receipt of benefits and the deduction of direct and indirect taxes. While this comfortably exceeds average household expenditure of £20,800 (2) before mortgage payments, it only tells part of the story.
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Wednesday, June 06, 2007
On Interest Rates Decision One Million Homeowners Drowning in Alphabet Soup / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Adrian_Ash
"...The City of London leads Europe – and only just tails the US – in packaging debt as an investment product. Most especially, the City loves mortgage-backed securities..."
WILL THE BANK OF ENGLAND raise Sterling interest rates on Thursday? One million British homeowners are hoping they don't.
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Thursday, May 31, 2007
MORTGAGE APPROVALS FALL / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: bsa.org.uk
- Building society gross advances amounted to £3,772m in April 2007, compared to £3,512m in April 2006.
- Net advances were £1,031m in April 2007, versus £1,106m in April 2006.
- Approvals were £3,910m in April 2007, down from £4,248m in April 2006.
Thursday, May 31, 2007
UK Housing Market Boom Coming to an End / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Phillipa_Green
Data released by the Bank of England confirms a continuing drop on mortgage approvals as the number of loans approved for house purchases in April were 107,000, for remortgaging 98,000 and for other purposes 72,000 were all lower than in March. The numbers are all down significantly on the start of the year.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 29, 2007
UK Home Information Packs (HIPs) on the Rack ? / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Submissions
The looming introduction of home information packs (Hips) will no doubt have had many property investors and landlords scratching their chins and wondering whether they would cost more than they could possible save.While the packs might be a welcome boost for landlords looking to expand their portfolio, those aiming to sell off a few properties could have regarded them as one extra headache.
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Friday, May 18, 2007
HIPs Will Lead to UK Housing Market Crash / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Submissions
The introduction of home information packs will lead to a housing market crash, it has been claimed. Julian King, director of National Homebuyers says: "There are many indicators of a crash already in place; increases in repossessions, continued interest rate hikes, first time buyers unable to get on the ladder and the introduction of Hips."Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 13, 2007
Analyst Warns of 'Potential Housing Market Crash' / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Submissions
A financial industry expert has warned of a 'potential crash' in the property market.F&C Investments' Ted Scott believes a negative yield on property could lead to buy-to-let investors selling their homes as they can no longer cover costs - which would precipitate a housing market crash.
This scenario will be made more likely should the Bank of England's monetary policy committee (MPC) choose to increase rates to 5.75 per cent in the near future - as has been predicted.
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Tuesday, May 01, 2007
UK Housing Market Heading for a Property Crash / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The next rise in UK interest rates to 5.50% is anticipated in a little over a weeks time. This is expected to further impact on a slowing housing market in the UK. Statistics from the British Bankers Association showed a drop in the rate of mortgage approvals by 8% despite the market entering the traditionally strong summer period. UK interest rates are on target to hit The Market Oracle forecasts (as of August 2006, expanded upon in Nov 06), of 5.75% by September 2007. With the risks of even further rises thereafter should inflation continue to stay above CPI 3%Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 26, 2007
Pick up in UK house price growth seals a May interest rate rise / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nationwide
Pick up in house price growth seals a May interest rate rise• Pace of house price growth picks up in April, but trend still shows a gradual cooling
• Market demand has been supported by movers, but this too is beginning to wane
• Too rapid an increase in rates could destabilise the market
• Current economic conditions suggest that a house price crash is unlikely
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Thursday, April 12, 2007
Mortgage approvals weaken in the face of rising costs and prices / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Submissions
Following last week's release of MBBG net lending figures for February, further information now available on lending to individuals shows that:Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 10, 2007
Green Homes have More Appeal for House Buyers / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nationwide
According to a recent study by Nationwide Building Society, the majority of UK homebuyers preferred a house with environmentally friendly features. Given the choice between two properties of a similar size and value, 82% of respondents claimed a house with features such as solar panels, had more of an influence on their decision to buy than attic rooms (68%), period features (63%) and walk-in wardrobes (62%).Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 02, 2007
Special Report on the UK Housing Market : First-Time Buyers and Affordability / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Submissions
First-time buyers hit by double whammy
- New first-time buyers face double whammy of house price and rate rises
- Higher house prices alone add £75 to typical first-time buyer monthly costs compared to last year. Interest rate increases bring this up to almost £120
- Locking into a fixed rate loan this time last year would have saved a typical first-time buyer £170 to date, with further monthly savings of £50 at current mortgage rates
- More first-time buyers choose longer-term and interest-only mortgages which can cut more than £300 off monthly payments
Nationwide Building Society has released a report showing the effects of interest rate and house price rises on first-time buyers.
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Sunday, April 01, 2007
Mortgage approvals weaken in the face of rising costs and House prices / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Sarah_Jones
Following last week's release of MBBG net lending figures for February, further information now available on lending to individuals shows that:Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 26, 2007
UK strong house price growth signals further rises in interest rates / Interest-Rates / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Hometrack revealed house prices in the UK surged in March to take the annualised rate to 6.7% from 6.4%. With the likelyhood of further strengthening as the market moves into a traditionally stronger housing market demand period going into the summer. London experienced an even stronger growth of 1.8% due to the boom in the financial services industry, which provided a lift to the overall UK figures.
This confirms my expectations of further interest rate rises during 2007 towards our target of 5.75%, (UK Interest Rates could rise to 5.75% in 2007) - Nov 06. The expectation is now for the next rise in interest rates to come in a little over a months time at the May 2007 Bank of England MPC Meeting. A rise in April is highly unlikely, given the soft tone amongst the MPC members who voted 8-1 to keep interest rates on hold, with 1 vote for a cut.
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Friday, March 16, 2007
RICS UK House Price Growth Weakens as Interest Rate Rises Start to Bite / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Sarah_Jones
The series of rises in UK interest rates over the past 9 months from 4.5% to 5.25% has started to have an impact on the UK housing market, according to a survey by Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors' (RICS).The gain for February is the slowest in over 9 months,
Wednesday, March 14, 2007
Analysis of the last UK Housing Market Crash as today's US Real Estate Meltdown continues / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Adrian_Ash
As house prices fall, repossession rates rise. Unless the lenders wake up to their dilemma...
"UK HOUSE PRICES to recover next year," said The Times of London on 17 November, 1989.
Real estate in the United Kingdom had risen three times over on average during the previous 10 years. National prices rose 40% in the last 18 months alone!
But now, suddenly, house prices had stopped rising. When would the good times kick off again?
Sunday, February 25, 2007
UK House Prices continue to Rise whilst the US Housing Market Slumps / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The UK housing market has proved remarkably resilient by notching up a further gain for January of 1.3% (Halifax) , whilst the US Housing market continues to go from bad to worse as the sub prime mortgages time bomb goes off, resulting in a slump that looks set to be the worst since the Great Depression of the 1930's.
The key to the strength of the UK housing market has been the fact that UK house prices have yet to reach the excesses of the early 1990's, in terms of House Price to Earnings to Interest rates ratio. Traditionally, average earnings and house prices have been taken together to produce an affordability ratio, this ratio has clearly in recent years shown itself to be flawed, as UK house prices have not fallen, because this measure has ignored historically low interest rates as a function of earnings and house prices, and therefore a more accurate indicator needs to include interest rates.
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Friday, February 09, 2007
REITS signaling a bottom in the US Housing / Real Estate Market / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Clif_Droke
One of the inescapable conclusions one comes to after a long-term study of history is that current events and financial markets is very little happens without a pre-ordained reason. This statement is especially true when applied to the financial markets. With literally trillions of dollars in money and credit floating around the world, there is simply too much at stake to allow the natural forces of chance and coincidence to interfere with the plans and dealings of the world's financial controllers.
Saturday, October 14, 2006
Why UK House prices continue to rise ! / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
For how many years have the market commentators been predicting a UK housing crash ? 1 year, 2 years, 5 years ? Yes in some cases even 5 years ago market pundits have been calling a crash, but in the meantime house prices, to this very day continue to rise ever higher !
Why ?
Here are four reasons as to why house prices in the UK continue to rise
Monday, September 25, 2006
Joseph Rowntrees report into the state of UK Housing / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Sarah_Jones
According to the report, affordability is currently stretched, with mortgage costs currently accounting for 36 per cent of average earnings.
The supply of affordable housing is also at a low level, the study claims, with 35,000 homes available in 2005-06 – half the level experienced in the mid-90s. This is well below the minimum of 48,000 outlined in the government-commissioned report.
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Saturday, September 16, 2006
IMF warns over UK property crash / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Sarah_Jones
A sharp rise in interest rates could trigger a slump in house prices, which are overvalued by "any conventional measure", the International Monetary Fund warned yesterday. The world's chief financial watchdog warned that soaring prices posed one of the biggest risks to the UK economy.
"House prices in Spain, Ireland and the United Kingdom still look elevated, and could come under pressure in a rising interest rate environment," it said.
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Wednesday, February 15, 2006
UK Housing Bubble is Popping / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
From the low in 1995 the average UK house price has risen from £50,930. to the £158,745 by the end of 2005, which is more than tripling in price ! From peak to to peak House prices have risen about the same 50%, as when the peaked in 1990. The Trend analysis suggests any decline could take house prices to the previous peak of approx 105k ! which would represent a staggering drop of 34% off current prices !
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Wednesday, September 14, 2005
House Prices - Tulip Mania - A lesson from History ! / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Sarah_Jones
Holland in the early 17th century was embarking on its Golden Age. Resources that had just a few years earlier gone toward fighting for independence from Spain now flowed into commerce. Amsterdam merchants were at the center of the lucrative East Indies trade, where a single voyage could yield profits of 400%. They displayed their success by erecting grand estates surrounded by flower gardens. The Dutch population seemed torn by two contradictory impulses: a horror of living beyond one's means and the love of a long shot.Enter the tulip. ''It is impossible to comprehend the tulip mania without understanding just how different tulips were from every other flower known to horticulturists in the 17th century,'' says Dash. ''The colors they exhibited were more intense and more concentrated than those of ordinary plants.'' Despite the outlandish prices commanded by rare bulbs, ordinary tulips were sold by the pound. Around 1630, however, a new type of tulip fancier appeared, lured by tales of fat profits. These ''florists,'' or professional tulip traders, sought out flower lovers and speculators alike. But if the supply of tulip buyers grew quickly, the supply of bulbs did not. The tulip was a conspirator in the supply squeeze: It takes seven years to grow one from seed. And while bulbs can produce two or three clones, or ''offsets,'' annually, the mother bulb only lasts a few years. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 16, 2005
Britains biggest estate agent loses £6.4 million / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Sarah_Jones
Countrywide hit by 'appalling' downturnBritain's biggest chain of estate agents yesterday showed just how dramatically the housing market had slowed when it revealed it had suffered a loss for the first time in a decade.
Countrywide said its UK estate agency division made losses of £6.4m in the first six months of this year - down 129% on the £22m operating profit notched up a year earlier. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 05, 2005
House Price News from 1989 ! / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Times TUE 03 JAN 1989 Agents optimistic about house prices A leading national firm of estate agents believes a collapse in the property market in 1989 is highly unlikely. Strutt and Parker has completed a review of 1988 trends, dominated by panic buying in the summer, then a London-led slowdown in the last q...
The Times FRI 06 JAN 1989 Shortage of teachers in Essex linked to soaring house prices Essex faces a chronic shortages of teachers because of soaring house prices, according to a survey by the National Association of Schoolmasters/Union of Women Teachers. Eight per cent of teachers are moving from the Basildon and mid-Essex area to ot...
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Friday, March 18, 2005
The housing bear market will result in a recession / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
It is inherent in market systems, to move to between extremes, so at the very least real house prices will decline by 10%, depending on the effects on the economy, which obviously will be negative this will feed through to further declines.As the bull trend in house prices from 1994 to 2004 was unprecedented, so it can be imagined that the bear trend from 2005 to 200? will also be unprecedented.
Plain old market driving forces of fear and greed. For there is no real reason why house prices have tripled other than greed.
A real 10% drop in house prices will be very bad.
A real 20% drop in house prices will be disastrous
A real 30% drop in house prices will be catastrophic
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Monday, November 15, 2004
UK House Prices Futures Market Analysis / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Futures markets are primarily to hedge against future price movements. So people can 'lock' in a price now and take uncertainty away.Obviously with house prices, were more talking profit and loss gambling, but if you are looking to sell your house in 15months time, and the futures were at a premium then you could have locked in that price, then you would have the certainty of knowing that, that is the price you will get, i.e. if by then house prices have fallen, you will get less from your sale but have made a profit on the futures. If house prices have risen more than the futures, then you will get more from your sale but have a loss on the futures.
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