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ONS UK Unemployment Statistics Paint a FAKE Picture of Falling Unemployment

Economics / Unemployment Dec 17, 2019 - 11:07 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Economics

Today the ONS published it's latest labour market statistics which include headline grabbing news that unemployment has continued to fall to an historic low of just 1.28 million as the below graph illustrates, far below the trough before the financial crisis hit Britain. However there is a fly in the ointment of this rosy picture that the Governments economic propaganda arm (ONS is painting which is that official unemployment statistics have been manipulated lower by successive governments all the way to the point that on their own they are pretty much meaningless. For instance there are over 8.6 million people of working age who are ECONOMICALLY INACTIVE, that's another word for UNEMPLOYED!


I have been iterating this for MORE than a decade(01 Jul 2010 - UK Unemployment Forecast 2010 to 2015), REAL UK Unemployment is far higher than the official statistics state it to be, currently probably more than triple the official figure that puts real UK unemployment in the region of 5 million and not 1.28 million.

To illustrate this point the above graph also shows that the number of people claiming unemployment related benefits (claimant count) which has risen from 730,000 in 2016 to 1.21 million today. Whilst at the same time the number of people officially classed as unemployed has fallen from 1.7 million to 1.28 million today.

So what has changed that is apparently automatically reclassifying an increasing number of the hidden from statistics in receipt of benefits unemployed to be officially reclassified as being unemployed?

Well there is one Tory government policy that stands out which is the roll out of Universal Credit. As most of the hidden unemployed are claiming supposed in work benefits such as working tax credits, child tax credits, housing benefit etc... A large percentage of whom are actually NOT working! An industry of fake employed and fake self employments has grown up that number in their millions all to avoid having to undertake the duties of looking for a real job as required for those registered as unemployed i.e. in receipt of Job Seekers allowance. So as many as 3.5 million additional unemployed are claiming benefits without any requirements to look for work. Which suits the government fine, after all the mainstream press has liberally regurgitated the good news of falling unemployment, despite the fact that if one looks under the economies hood, one soon see's the mass of HIDDEN unemployed all in the service of fake statistics for state propaganda purposes.

The unintended consequences of Universal Credit is to expose the 'fake' workers, and so most of the people transferred over to Universal Credit tend to be reclassified to their actual state of unemployment which is probably why there are so many protests against Universal Credit as it threatens to end the gravy train that many millions have been on for decades.

The relative trend trajectories also suggest that claimant count is set to surpass the unemployed number within the next few months, which will illustrate just how fake Britain's economic statistics truly are that more people will be claiming out of work benefits than are recorded as being unemployed! In fact if things were left as is than by the time of the next UK general election I would not be surprised if claimant count had risen to over 3 million!

Though what is actually likely to happen is that the Government will CHANGE the methodology for calculating the claimant count numbers so as to reduce the number to roughly 800,000 below the fake Unemployed total so as to once more HIDE the true level of unemployment which is around 5 million.

How Fake Unemployment Statistics impacted the General Election

The Tory government continue to peddle the fake unemployment statistics for propaganda purposes, to bang the drum of having cut UK unemployment towards record lows despite the fact that the real number of unemployed being more than triple the official figure!

So the Tories gain some propaganda value for being able to pump out low unemployment graphs based on official statistics that paint them in a good economic light.

And ensure you are subscribed to my ALWAYS FREE newsletter for my next in-depth analysis.

Your Analyst

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2019 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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