Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
BREWING FINANCIAL CRISIS 2.0 Suggests RECESSION 2022 - 28th Jan 22
Financial Stocks Sector ETF XLF $37.50 Continues To Present Opportunities - 28th Jan 22
Stock Market Rushing Headlong - 28th Jan 22
The right way to play Climate Change Investing (not green energy stocks) - 28th Jan 22
Why Most Investors LOST Money by Investing in ARK FUNDS - 27th Jan 22
The “play-to-earn” trend taking the crypto world by storm - 27th Jan 22
Quantum AI Stocks Investing Priority - 26th Jan 22
Is Everyone Going To Be Right About This Stocks Bear Market?- 26th Jan 22
Stock Market Glass Half Empty or Half Full? - 26th Jan 22
Stock Market Quoted As Saying 'The Reports Of My Demise Are Greatly Exaggerated' - 26th Jan 22
The Synthetic Dividend Option To Generate Profits - 26th Jan 22
The Beginner's Guide to Credit Repair - 26th Jan 22
AI Tech Stocks State Going into the CRASH and Capitalising on the Metaverse - 25th Jan 22
Stock Market Relief Rally, Maybe? - 25th Jan 22
Why Gold’s Latest Rally Is Nothing to Get Excited About - 25th Jan 22
Gold Slides and Rebounds in 2022 - 25th Jan 22
Gold; a stellar picture - 25th Jan 22
CATHY WOOD ARK GARBAGE ARK Funds Heading for 90% STOCK CRASH! - 22nd Jan 22
Gold Is the Belle of the Ball. Will Its Dance Turn Bearish? - 22nd Jan 22
Best Neighborhoods to Buy Real Estate in San Diego - 22nd Jan 22
Stock Market January PANIC AI Tech Stocks Buying Opp - Trend Forecast 2022 - 21st Jan 21
How to Get Rich in the MetaVerse - 20th Jan 21
Should you Buy Payment Disruptor Stocks in 2022? - 20th Jan 21
2022 the Year of Smart devices, Electric Vehicles, and AI Startups - 20th Jan 21
Oil Markets More Animated by Geopolitics, Supply, and Demand - 20th Jan 21
Fake It Till You Make It: Will Silver’s Motto Work on Gold? - 19th Jan 22
Crude Oil Smashing Stocks - 19th Jan 22
US Stagflation: The Global Risk of 2022 - 19th Jan 22
Stock Market Trend Forecast Early 2022 - Tech Growth Value Stocks Rotation - 18th Jan 22
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Setting Up For A 'Mini-Crash'? - 18th Jan 22
Mobile Sports Betting is on a rise: Here’s why - 18th Jan 22
Exponential AI Stocks Mega-trend - 17th Jan 22
THE NEXT BITCOIN - 17th Jan 22
Gold Price Predictions for 2022 - 17th Jan 22
How Do Debt Relief Services Work To Reduce The Amount You Owe? - 17th Jan 22
RIVIAN IPO Illustrates We are in the Mother of all Stock Market Bubbles - 16th Jan 22
All Market Eyes on Copper - 16th Jan 22
The US Dollar Had a Slip-Up, but Gold Turned a Blind Eye to It - 16th Jan 22
A Stock Market Top for the Ages - 16th Jan 22
FREETRADE - Stock Investing Platform, the Good, Bad and Ugly Review, Free Shares, Cancelled Orders - 15th Jan 22
WD 14tb My Book External Drive Unboxing, Testing and Benchmark Performance Amazon Buy Review - 15th Jan 22
Toyland Ferris Wheel Birthday Fun at Gulliver's Rother Valley UK Theme Park 2022 - 15th Jan 22
What You Should Know About a TailoredPay High Risk Merchant Account - 15th Jan 22

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Market Extending Phase Two?

Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021 May 12, 2021 - 10:23 AM GMT

By: Andre_Gratian


Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first half of 2021 before major cycles take over and it comes to an end.

SPX Intermediate trend:  Phase two from 3853 does not look complete.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.

Daily market analysis of the short-term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 2-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at

Extending Phase Two?

Cycles:  Looking ahead!

90-yr cycle – Last lows: 1843-1933. Next low: ~2023

40-yr cycle -- Last lows: 1942 -1982. Next low: ~2022

7-yr cycle – Last lows: 2009-2016.  Next low: ~2023

Market Analysis (Charts, courtesy of QCharts)

IWM - SPX (weekly)

SPX made a new all-time high today!  IWM made a new all-time high eight weeks ago!  We know what this disparity has suggested in the past:  a market correction is coming.  There is no reason to believe that it will be any different, this time.  Unless, of course, IWM loses its relative weakness and starts to make new highs. 

SPX daily chart

SPX is being pulled in different directions by the Nasdaq which is correcting and the DJIA which is making daily all-time highs.  As a result, the intention of this index has become unclear.  After rising from the 3853 low, it made two consecutive short-term tops: one from 4191 on 4/16 which brought about a 73-point correction, and another from 4219 on 4/29 which resulted in a 100-point pullback and ended on 5/04.  Since then, SPX has already made a new all-time high and appears to have started a new uptrend which could prolong phase two -- but perhaps not by much. 

First, the relative weakness exhibited by IWM suggests that a deeper correction should soon be taking place.  Second, the P&F pattern is more suggestive of a top than of a base.  And third, a dependable short-term cycle is scheduled to bottom around the 17th.  That cycle is also obvious on the DJIA which should be in the process of topping any day, now.  This would fit with the current SPX structure which may require another day or two to complete.

Making a short-term top is still the preferred scenario with a potential 4240-4260 target max.  What happens next will depend on how much weakness will be triggered by the short-term cycle and if the correction can extend outside of the purple channel and below the 4120 level.                                

SPX hourly chart

The hourly chart does not add much to the analysis of the daily chart, except perhaps to show more clearly that the move which started on the 4th has a structure which is incomplete, and which should take SPX a little higher before completion.  The index will have to move outside of the purple uptrend line and below the 4120 level to give a sell signal suggesting that phase two is now complete.  It would be best if price remained below the pink upper trend line as it makes its short-term high.      

  • UUP (dollar ETF) DLY ($USD chart is not available from this data provider)
  • UUP barely bounced before dropping lower, almost reaching the lower trend line of the main channel from 5/14 where it found support twice before.  Looking at the longer- term chart, it looks like a retest of the 2018 low above which it should hold for some time. 
  • GDX (gold miners)-DLY
  • GDX is still pushing higher after making what appears to have been an intermediate-term low.  Another .60 would put it against the top of its corrective channel where some temporary resistance may be found before it can push to the 39-40 level suggested by the P&F chart.  The negative divergence showing in the CCI does not look serious and could easily be dispelled by a continued advance.
  • PAAS (Pan American Silver Corp-DLY)
  • PAAS found resistance from a secondary trend line 35 and is consolidating.  It may not remain there for long since the oscillators and the P&F chart suggest a move to 39-40 could take place, next.
  • BNO (Brent oil fund) DLY.
  • With negative divergence showing in its CCI, BNO may need to pull back for some additional consolidation before pushing to a new high.

SPX was not able to extend its 100-point correction and made a new high.  It is possible that phase two is not yet complete.


Free trial subscription

With a trial subscription, you will have access to the same information that is given to paid subscribers, but for a limited time-period.   Over the years, I have developed an expertise in P&F charting (price projection), cycles (timing), EWT (structure), and general technical analysis which enables me to warn subscribers of pending reversals in market trends and how far that trend can potentially carry.  For a FREE 2-week trial, subscription options and payment plans, I encourage you to visit my website at

Disclaimer - The above comments about the financial markets are based purely on what I consider to be sound technical analysis principles uncompromised by fundamental considerations. They represent my own opinion and are not meant to be construed as trading or investment advice, but are offered as an analytical point of view which might be of interest to those who follow stock market cycles and technical analysis.

Andre Gratian Archive

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in