Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Stock Market Trend Forecast Early 2022 - Tech Growth Value Stocks Rotation - 18th Jan 22
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Setting Up For A 'Mini-Crash'? - 18th Jan 22
Mobile Sports Betting is on a rise: Here’s why - 18th Jan 22
Exponential AI Stocks Mega-trend - 17th Jan 22
THE NEXT BITCOIN - 17th Jan 22
Gold Price Predictions for 2022 - 17th Jan 22
How Do Debt Relief Services Work To Reduce The Amount You Owe? - 17th Jan 22
RIVIAN IPO Illustrates We are in the Mother of all Stock Market Bubbles - 16th Jan 22
All Market Eyes on Copper - 16th Jan 22
The US Dollar Had a Slip-Up, but Gold Turned a Blind Eye to It - 16th Jan 22
A Stock Market Top for the Ages - 16th Jan 22
FREETRADE - Stock Investing Platform, the Good, Bad and Ugly Review, Free Shares, Cancelled Orders - 15th Jan 22
WD 14tb My Book External Drive Unboxing, Testing and Benchmark Performance Amazon Buy Review - 15th Jan 22
Toyland Ferris Wheel Birthday Fun at Gulliver's Rother Valley UK Theme Park 2022 - 15th Jan 22
What You Should Know About a TailoredPay High Risk Merchant Account - 15th Jan 22
Best Metaverse Tech Stocks Investing for 2022 and Beyond - 14th Jan 22
Gold Price Lagging Inflation - 14th Jan 22
Get Your Startup Idea Up And Running With These 7 Tips - 14th Jan 22
What Happens When Your Flight Gets Cancelled in the UK? - 14th Jan 22
How to Profit from 2022’s Biggest Trend Reversal - 11th Jan 22
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Ready To Drop To 4400SPX? - 11th Jan 22
What's the Role of an Affiliate Marketer? - 11th Jan 22
Essential Things To Know Before You Set Up A Limited Liability Company - 11th Jan 22
NVIDIA THE KING OF THE METAVERSE! - 10th Jan 22
Fiscal and Monetary Cliffs Have Arrived - 10th Jan 22
The Meteoric Rise of Investing in Trading Cards - 10th Jan 22
IBM The REAL Quantum Metaverse STOCK! - 9th Jan 22
WARNING Failing NVME2 M2 SSD Drives Can Prevent Systems From Booting - Corsair MP600 - 9th Jan 22
The Fed’s inflated cake and a ‘quant’ of history - 9th Jan 22
NVME M2 SSD FAILURE WARNING Signs - Corsair MP600 1tb Drive - 9th Jan 22
Meadowhall Sheffield Christmas Lights 2021 Shopping - Before the Switch on - 9th Jan 22
How Does Insurance Work In Europe? Find Out Here - 9th Jan 22
MATTERPORT (MTTR) - DIGITIZING THE REAL WORLD - METAVERSE INVESTING 2022 - 7th Jan 22
Effect of Deflation On The Gold Price - 7th Jan 22
Stock Market 2022 Requires Different Strategies For Traders/Investors - 7th Jan 22
Old Man Winter Will Stimulate Natural Gas and Heating Oil Demand - 7th Jan 22
Is The Lazy Stock Market Bull Strategy Worth Considering? - 7th Jan 22
METAVERSE - NEW LIFE FOR SONY AGEING GAMING GIANT? - 6th Jan 2022
What Elliott Waves Show for Asia Pacific Stock and Financial Markets 2022 - 6th Jan 2022
Why You Should Register Your Company - 6th Jan 2022
4 Ways to Invest in Silver for 2022 - 6th Jan 2022
UNITY (U) - Metaverse Stock Analysis Investing for 2022 and Beyond - 5th Jan 2022
Stock Market Staving Off Risk-Off - 5th Jan 2022
Gold and Silver Still Hungover After New Year’s Eve - 5th Jan 2022
S&P 500 In an Uncharted Territory, But Is Sky the Limit? - 5th Jan 2022

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Market Drawing Ever Closer to Final Target?

Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021 Aug 30, 2021 - 11:57 AM GMT

By: Andre_Gratian

Stock-Markets

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 until major cycles take over, and it ends.  A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.

SPX Intermediate trend:  SPX correction underway.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.


Daily market analysis of the short-term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 2-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at agratianj@gmail.com

 

Drawing Ever Closer to Final Target?

Cycles:  Looking ahead!

7-yr cycle – Last lows: 2009-2016.  Next low:  ~2023

Market Analysis (Charts, courtesy of StockCharts)

SPX- DJIA Weekly

Viewing the long-term (weekly) charts of SPX and DJIA, both reflect a lot of buying after the March 2020 low, leading to nearly vertical moves in both indexes.  After the first intermediate correction, both indices continued upward at a more moderate, but still very bullish uptrend.  Over the past ~3 months, SPX continued unabated, but DJIA proceeded at a much more subdued pace -- behavior which tends to suggest a shift in supply/ demand forces preceding a price correction.  The continued strength in SPX was primarily due to the latter being affected by continued aggressive buying in the big tech stocks. 

Switching our focus to the P&F chart (not shown here), the congestion produced at the March 2020 low gave a projection to 4550.  I had expected some intermediate consolidation first at 4310, and then 4440; but if the projection is valid, it looks as if we are going for the full count directly. 

SPX daily chart

A close-up of SPX on the daily chart shows that deceleration occurred at the 4440-4480 level ( most noticeably in the CCI) but the subsequent pullback found support on the trendline and, in conjunction with the bottoming of the short-term cycle, new life was breathed into the index and it was propelled to a new high of 4513.33 on Friday -- probably in a reaction to the speech delivered at the Jackson Hold symposium by Fed chairman Jerome Powell.  The anticipation of that speech and what it might contain may also have caused the index to hold the primary trend line.  Even the resurgence of covid-19 and its likely consequences for the economy, and the collapse of Afghanistan punctuated by an ISIS-generated suicide attack last week which took the lives of scores of people, were completely ignored! 

This continues to be a tough market for analysts to divine, as even speculation of what it might do based on good analytical guestimates over the intermediate term has failed to produce tangible results.  But can it logically continue to move higher and higher without a solid correction taking place?  Or will the correction come suddenly once the last projection has been met, the last short-term cycle has topped, and the final structure has been completed?  I suspect that this is what may take place -- and we may not have much longer to wait!

  •  
  • SPX hourly chart
  •  
  • The hourly chart shows the pattern described by the current short-term cycle since it last made its low on 8/19.  Sunday will be day 10 of an approximate 26-day pattern for the current short-term cycle.  Friday’s strong extension of the uptrend was in response to Jerome Powell’s speech who, as customary, did his best to choose words that would not offend the stock market in describing his view on inflation and current monetary policy. The market obliged with a new high in NDX and SPX -- but not in DJIA!  Also, as you can see on the chart, most of the upside momentum occurred early in the session immediately after the speech, followed by a notable deceleration during the rest of the day.  This, combined with a frequent dip into the mid-cycle phase, suggests that we could have a couple of downside days…and then what?  A final reach for the 4550-target?  Let’s just see how it plays out!
  •  
  •  
  • USD (dollar) dly
  •  
  • The dollar appeared to be on its way to the top of its correction channel, but reversed suddenly on Friday, which leads one to wonder if the rally is over.  Nothing serious technically is likely to happen until the index closes below its 50-dma.
  •  
  • GDX (gold miners) (dly)
  •  
  • GDX is trying to establish a short-term uptrend.  Its success will depend on being able to overcome 33.50+.
  •  
  • PAAS (dly)
  •  
  • As in GDX, buying in PAAS may have been motivated by the pullback in USD.  For the latter, in order to keep going, it’s important that it gets above 27.00
  •  
  • BNO (Brent oil fund) dly
  •  
  • BNO corrected and rallied to its 50-dma.  If it cannot get back above it quicky, it should continue to decline to at least 15.00.
  •  
  • SUMMARY
  •  
  • SPX is drawing ever closer to its long-term projection of 4550.

Andre

Free trial subscription

With a trial subscription, you will have access to the same information that is given to paid subscribers, but for a limited time-period.   Over the years, I have developed an expertise in P&F charting (price projection), cycles (timing), EWT (structure), and general technical analysis which enables me to warn subscribers of pending reversals in market trends and how far that trend can potentially carry.  For a FREE 2-week trial, subscription options and payment plans, I encourage you to visit my website at www.marketurningpoints.com.

Disclaimer - The above comments about the financial markets are based purely on what I consider to be sound technical analysis principles uncompromised by fundamental considerations. They represent my own opinion and are not meant to be construed as trading or investment advice, but are offered as an analytical point of view which might be of interest to those who follow stock market cycles and technical analysis.

Andre Gratian Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in