Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. TESLA! Cathy Wood ARK Funds Bubble BURSTS! - 12th May 21
2.Stock Market Entering Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast - 10th May 21
3.GOLD GDX, HUI Stocks - Will Paradise Turn into a Dystopia? - 11th May 21
4.Crypto Bubble Bursts! Nicehash Suspends Coinbase Withdrawals, Bitcoin, Ethereum Bear Market Begins - 16th May 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.Cathy Wood Ark Invest Funds Bubble BURSTS! ARKK, ARKG, Tesla Entering Severe Bear Market - 13th May 21
7.Stock Market - Should You Be In Cash Right Now? - 17th May 21
8.Gold to Benefit from Mounting US Debt Pile - 14th May 21
9.Coronavius Covid-19 in Italy in August 2019! - 13th May 21
10.How to Invest in HIGH RISK Tech Stocks for 2021 and Beyond - Part 2 of 2 - 18th May 21
Last 7 days
Stock Market FOMO Hits September CRASH Brick Wall - Dow Trend Forecast 2021 Review - 20th Sep 21
Two Huge, Overlooked Drains on Global Silver Supplies - 20th Sep 21
Gold gets hammered but Copper fails to seize the moment - 20th Sep 21
New arms race and nuclear risks could spell End to the Asian Century - 20th Sep 21
Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Dow Trend Forecast 2021 Review - 19th Sep 21
Dow Forecasting Neural Nets, Crossing the Rubicon With Three High Risk Chinese Tech Stocks - 18th Sep 21
If Post-1971 Monetary System Is Bad, Why Isn’t Gold Higher? - 18th Sep 21
Stock Market Shaking Off the Taper Blues - 18th Sep 21
So... This Happened! One Crypto Goes From "Little-Known" -to- "Top 10" in 6 Weeks - 18th Sep 21
Why a Financial Markets "Panic" May Be Just Around the Corner - 18th Sep 21
An Update on the End of College… and a New Way to Profit - 16th Sep 21
What Kind of Support and Services Can Your Accountant Provide? Your Main Questions Answered - 16th Sep 21
Consistent performance makes waste a good place to buy stocks - 16th Sep 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecasting Neural Nets Pattern Recognition - 15th Sep 21
Eurozone Impact on Gold: The ECB and the Phantom Taper - 15th Sep 21
Fed To Taper into Weakening Economy - 15th Sep 21
Gold Miners: Last of the Summer Wine - 15th Sep 21
How does product development affect a company’s market value? - 15th Sep 21
Types of Investment Property to Become Familiar with - 15th Sep 21
Is This the "Kiss of Death" for the Stocks Bull Market? - 14th Sep 21
Where Are the Stock Market Fireworks? - 14th Sep 21
Play-To-Earn Cryptocurrency Games Gain More and Is Set to Expand - 14th Sep 21
The CashFX TAP Platform - Catering to Bull Investors and Bear Investors Alike - 14th Sep 21
Why every serious investor should be focused on blockchain technology - 13th Sep 21
SPX Base Projection Reached – End of the Line? - 13th Sep 21
There are diverse ways to finance the purchase of a car - 13th Sep 21
6 Tips For Wise Investment - 13th Sep 21 - Mark_Adan
Gold Price Back Below $1,800! - 10th Sep 21
The Inflation/Deflation debate wears on… - 10th Sep 21
Silver Price seen tracking Copper prices higher - 10th Sep 21
The Pitfalls of Not Using a Solicitor for Your Divorce - 10th Sep 21
Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
This Boom-Bust Cycle in US Home Ownership Should Give Home Shoppers Pause - 9th Sep 21
Stock Market September Smackdown Coming Next? - 9th Sep 21 - Monica_Kingsley
Crazy Crypto Markets How to Buy Bitcoin, Litecoin for Half Market Price and Sell for TRIPLE! - 8th Sep 21
Sun Sea and Sand UK Holidays 2021, Scarborough in VR 180 3D! - 8th Sep 21
Bitcoin BTC Price Detailed Trend Forecast Into End 2021 - 8th Sep 21
Hyper Growth Stocks - This billionaire is now using one of our top strategies - 8th Sep 21
6 common trading mistakes to avoid at all costs - 8th Sep 21
US Dollar Upswing, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook - 7th Sep 21
Dovish Assassins of the USD Index - 7th Sep 21
Weak August Payrolls: Why We Should Care - 7th Sep 21
A Mixed Stock Market - Still - 6th Sep 21
Energy Metals Build Momentum; Silver & Platinum May Follow - 6th Sep 21
What‘s Not to Love About Crypto Market Fireworks - 6th Sep 21
Surging US Home Prices and Gold – What’s the Link? - 6th Sep 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Market Drawing Ever Closer to Final Target?

Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021 Aug 30, 2021 - 11:57 AM GMT

By: Andre_Gratian


Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 until major cycles take over, and it ends.  A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.

SPX Intermediate trend:  SPX correction underway.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.

Daily market analysis of the short-term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 2-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at


Drawing Ever Closer to Final Target?

Cycles:  Looking ahead!

7-yr cycle – Last lows: 2009-2016.  Next low:  ~2023

Market Analysis (Charts, courtesy of StockCharts)

SPX- DJIA Weekly

Viewing the long-term (weekly) charts of SPX and DJIA, both reflect a lot of buying after the March 2020 low, leading to nearly vertical moves in both indexes.  After the first intermediate correction, both indices continued upward at a more moderate, but still very bullish uptrend.  Over the past ~3 months, SPX continued unabated, but DJIA proceeded at a much more subdued pace -- behavior which tends to suggest a shift in supply/ demand forces preceding a price correction.  The continued strength in SPX was primarily due to the latter being affected by continued aggressive buying in the big tech stocks. 

Switching our focus to the P&F chart (not shown here), the congestion produced at the March 2020 low gave a projection to 4550.  I had expected some intermediate consolidation first at 4310, and then 4440; but if the projection is valid, it looks as if we are going for the full count directly. 

SPX daily chart

A close-up of SPX on the daily chart shows that deceleration occurred at the 4440-4480 level ( most noticeably in the CCI) but the subsequent pullback found support on the trendline and, in conjunction with the bottoming of the short-term cycle, new life was breathed into the index and it was propelled to a new high of 4513.33 on Friday -- probably in a reaction to the speech delivered at the Jackson Hold symposium by Fed chairman Jerome Powell.  The anticipation of that speech and what it might contain may also have caused the index to hold the primary trend line.  Even the resurgence of covid-19 and its likely consequences for the economy, and the collapse of Afghanistan punctuated by an ISIS-generated suicide attack last week which took the lives of scores of people, were completely ignored! 

This continues to be a tough market for analysts to divine, as even speculation of what it might do based on good analytical guestimates over the intermediate term has failed to produce tangible results.  But can it logically continue to move higher and higher without a solid correction taking place?  Or will the correction come suddenly once the last projection has been met, the last short-term cycle has topped, and the final structure has been completed?  I suspect that this is what may take place -- and we may not have much longer to wait!

  • SPX hourly chart
  • The hourly chart shows the pattern described by the current short-term cycle since it last made its low on 8/19.  Sunday will be day 10 of an approximate 26-day pattern for the current short-term cycle.  Friday’s strong extension of the uptrend was in response to Jerome Powell’s speech who, as customary, did his best to choose words that would not offend the stock market in describing his view on inflation and current monetary policy. The market obliged with a new high in NDX and SPX -- but not in DJIA!  Also, as you can see on the chart, most of the upside momentum occurred early in the session immediately after the speech, followed by a notable deceleration during the rest of the day.  This, combined with a frequent dip into the mid-cycle phase, suggests that we could have a couple of downside days…and then what?  A final reach for the 4550-target?  Let’s just see how it plays out!
  • USD (dollar) dly
  • The dollar appeared to be on its way to the top of its correction channel, but reversed suddenly on Friday, which leads one to wonder if the rally is over.  Nothing serious technically is likely to happen until the index closes below its 50-dma.
  • GDX (gold miners) (dly)
  • GDX is trying to establish a short-term uptrend.  Its success will depend on being able to overcome 33.50+.
  • PAAS (dly)
  • As in GDX, buying in PAAS may have been motivated by the pullback in USD.  For the latter, in order to keep going, it’s important that it gets above 27.00
  • BNO (Brent oil fund) dly
  • BNO corrected and rallied to its 50-dma.  If it cannot get back above it quicky, it should continue to decline to at least 15.00.
  • SPX is drawing ever closer to its long-term projection of 4550.


Free trial subscription

With a trial subscription, you will have access to the same information that is given to paid subscribers, but for a limited time-period.   Over the years, I have developed an expertise in P&F charting (price projection), cycles (timing), EWT (structure), and general technical analysis which enables me to warn subscribers of pending reversals in market trends and how far that trend can potentially carry.  For a FREE 2-week trial, subscription options and payment plans, I encourage you to visit my website at

Disclaimer - The above comments about the financial markets are based purely on what I consider to be sound technical analysis principles uncompromised by fundamental considerations. They represent my own opinion and are not meant to be construed as trading or investment advice, but are offered as an analytical point of view which might be of interest to those who follow stock market cycles and technical analysis.

Andre Gratian Archive

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in