S&P 500 prompt recovery confirms my bullish run thesis – above 4,520, and given my Feb announced year end target of 4,700, fresh ATHs are approaching. Get ready though for quite some volatility as the current lull won‘t last indefinitely – I‘m not looking for VIX at 15 to be broken to the downside on a closing basis, and wouldn‘t be surprised by another noticeable correction once the current upswing runs out of steam somewhat above prior ATHs.

So far so good, and the stock market run continues without marked credit markets confirmation as the risk-on turn there isn‘t complete (yet). Treasury yields aren‘t retreating, yet tech is the driver of the S&P 500 upswing while value keeps treading water. Encouragingly, financials do well – it‘s cyclicals‘ time, and the open S&P 500 long position is very solidly profitable already.

Commodities upswing continues, and precious metals (silver leading gold), are in the tow. Less so when it comes to silver, which is inspired by the great copper run. As if indeed silver was sniffing the copper awakening soon – strong copper long profits keep growing too. Crude oil refused to yield much ground, and any timid intraday move down, gets swiftly bought. Similarly cryptos aren‘t looking back.

And at the same time, the dollar keeps trading on a high ground, only today yielding some 0.30 points. What gives? It‘s my view that not even the yields drifting slowly higher, would help keep the greenback undepinned indefinitely…

As stated yesterday:

(…) Reflation is slowly giving way to stagflation – GDP growth is slowing down while inflation isn‘t disappearing, to put it mildly. The copper upswing isn‘t so much a function of improving economy prospects but of record low stockpiles. Anyway, much more to look for in the commodities and precious metals bull markets that are likely to appreciate much more than stocks this decade.

Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).

S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook

S&P 500 recovered from the opening setback, and its path of least resistance remains up.

Credit Markets

Debt instruments refused the turn to risk-off, in what looks as promising turn in support of the following S&P 500 upswing.

Gold, Silver and Miners

Gold hasn‘t recovered the ground it lost on Friday, but looks like done declining. The miners don‘t support a bearish turn currently – look for silver to show the way (up).

Crude Oil

Crude oil again didn‘t correct, and oil stocks merely paused – the pace of price increases is slowing down, and a (shallow) bear raid appears a question of time.

Copper

Copper steep upswing was sold into once again, but the bulls don‘t appear to have spoken the last word yet. Sideways consolidation of the high gained ground though looks to be most probable next, followed by even higher prices.

Bitcoin and Ethereum

Crypto gains consolidation with an upward bias continues today, and further gains are ahead.

Summary

Stock market rebound goes on, and fresh ATHs are approaching. These will take time, and I‘m not looking for a sizable correction to strike first. The turn to risk-on isn‘t yet complete, but commodities are showing the way already (as much as it‘s a function of low stockpiles and associated crunch). Treasury yields will continue drifting up, inflation would remain unbroken, and at the same time, wouldn‘t break the stock bull run. Silver and cryptos are another bullish picks to capitalize on. Patience gold bulls, it‘s the yellow metal priced in USD as opposed to other currencies, that usually breaks out last.

Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for both Stock Trading Signals and Gold Trading Signals.

Thank you,

Monica Kingsley

Stock Trading Signals

Gold Trading Signals

www.monicakingsley.co

mk@monicakingsley.co

* * * * *

All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

The Market Oracle is a FREE Financial Markets Forecasting & Analysis web-site.
(c) 2005-2024 MarketOracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd) - Market Oracle Ltd asserts copyright on all articles authored by our editorial team and all comments posted. Any and all information provided within the web-site, is for general information purposes only and Market Oracle Ltd do not warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of any information provided on this site. nor is or shall be deemed to constitute, financial or any other advice or recommendation by us. and are also not meant to be investment advice or solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. We do not give investment advice and our comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to enter into a market position either stock, option, futures contract, bonds, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. We recommend that independent professional advice is obtained before you make any investment or trading decisions. By using this site you agree to this sites Terms of Use. From time to time we promote or endorse certain products / services that we believe are worthy of your time and attention. In return for that endorsement and only in the cases where you purchase directly though us may we be compensated by the producers of those products.