Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
CATHY WOOD ARK GARBAGE ARK Funds Heading for 90% STOCK CRASH! - 22nd Jan 22
Gold Is the Belle of the Ball. Will Its Dance Turn Bearish? - 22nd Jan 22
Best Neighborhoods to Buy Real Estate in San Diego - 22nd Jan 22
Stock Market January PANIC AI Tech Stocks Buying Opp - Trend Forecast 2022 - 21st Jan 21
How to Get Rich in the MetaVerse - 20th Jan 21
Should you Buy Payment Disruptor Stocks in 2022? - 20th Jan 21
2022 the Year of Smart devices, Electric Vehicles, and AI Startups - 20th Jan 21
Oil Markets More Animated by Geopolitics, Supply, and Demand - 20th Jan 21
Fake It Till You Make It: Will Silver’s Motto Work on Gold? - 19th Jan 22
Crude Oil Smashing Stocks - 19th Jan 22
US Stagflation: The Global Risk of 2022 - 19th Jan 22
Stock Market Trend Forecast Early 2022 - Tech Growth Value Stocks Rotation - 18th Jan 22
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Setting Up For A 'Mini-Crash'? - 18th Jan 22
Mobile Sports Betting is on a rise: Here’s why - 18th Jan 22
Exponential AI Stocks Mega-trend - 17th Jan 22
THE NEXT BITCOIN - 17th Jan 22
Gold Price Predictions for 2022 - 17th Jan 22
How Do Debt Relief Services Work To Reduce The Amount You Owe? - 17th Jan 22
RIVIAN IPO Illustrates We are in the Mother of all Stock Market Bubbles - 16th Jan 22
All Market Eyes on Copper - 16th Jan 22
The US Dollar Had a Slip-Up, but Gold Turned a Blind Eye to It - 16th Jan 22
A Stock Market Top for the Ages - 16th Jan 22
FREETRADE - Stock Investing Platform, the Good, Bad and Ugly Review, Free Shares, Cancelled Orders - 15th Jan 22
WD 14tb My Book External Drive Unboxing, Testing and Benchmark Performance Amazon Buy Review - 15th Jan 22
Toyland Ferris Wheel Birthday Fun at Gulliver's Rother Valley UK Theme Park 2022 - 15th Jan 22
What You Should Know About a TailoredPay High Risk Merchant Account - 15th Jan 22
Best Metaverse Tech Stocks Investing for 2022 and Beyond - 14th Jan 22
Gold Price Lagging Inflation - 14th Jan 22
Get Your Startup Idea Up And Running With These 7 Tips - 14th Jan 22
What Happens When Your Flight Gets Cancelled in the UK? - 14th Jan 22
How to Profit from 2022’s Biggest Trend Reversal - 11th Jan 22
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Ready To Drop To 4400SPX? - 11th Jan 22
What's the Role of an Affiliate Marketer? - 11th Jan 22
Essential Things To Know Before You Set Up A Limited Liability Company - 11th Jan 22
Fiscal and Monetary Cliffs Have Arrived - 10th Jan 22
The Meteoric Rise of Investing in Trading Cards - 10th Jan 22
IBM The REAL Quantum Metaverse STOCK! - 9th Jan 22
WARNING Failing NVME2 M2 SSD Drives Can Prevent Systems From Booting - Corsair MP600 - 9th Jan 22
The Fed’s inflated cake and a ‘quant’ of history - 9th Jan 22
NVME M2 SSD FAILURE WARNING Signs - Corsair MP600 1tb Drive - 9th Jan 22
Meadowhall Sheffield Christmas Lights 2021 Shopping - Before the Switch on - 9th Jan 22
How Does Insurance Work In Europe? Find Out Here - 9th Jan 22
Effect of Deflation On The Gold Price - 7th Jan 22
Stock Market 2022 Requires Different Strategies For Traders/Investors - 7th Jan 22
Old Man Winter Will Stimulate Natural Gas and Heating Oil Demand - 7th Jan 22
Is The Lazy Stock Market Bull Strategy Worth Considering? - 7th Jan 22
What Elliott Waves Show for Asia Pacific Stock and Financial Markets 2022 - 6th Jan 2022
Why You Should Register Your Company - 6th Jan 2022
4 Ways to Invest in Silver for 2022 - 6th Jan 2022
UNITY (U) - Metaverse Stock Analysis Investing for 2022 and Beyond - 5th Jan 2022
Stock Market Staving Off Risk-Off - 5th Jan 2022
Gold and Silver Still Hungover After New Year’s Eve - 5th Jan 2022
S&P 500 In an Uncharted Territory, But Is Sky the Limit? - 5th Jan 2022

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I Fear For Retirees For The Next 20 Years

Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021 Dec 01, 2021 - 07:09 PM GMT

By: Avi_Gilburt


When caution is thrown to the wind, we begin to recognize that the market may be moving into a dangerous euphoric state from which a long-term bear market can begin. And, while it may be easier to bury your head in the sand, I strongly urge you to take to heart what I am about to say, as it will likely have ripple effects for generations to come.

Recently, I read that the board of directors of the nation’s largest pension fund voted to use borrowed money and alternative assets to meet its investment-return target. What makes this even more striking is that this same pension fund lowered their investment-return target just a few months ago.

“The move by the $495 billion California Public Employees’ Retirement System reflects the dimming prospects for safe publicly traded investments by households and institutions alike and sets a tone for increased risk-taking by pension funds around the country.

Without changes, Calpers said its current asset mix would produce 20-year returns of 6.2%, short of both the 7% target the fund started 2021 with and the 6.8% target implemented over the summer.

Board members voted 7 to 4 in favor of borrowing and investing an amount equivalent to 5% of the fund’s value, or about $25 billion, as part of an effort to hit the 6.8% target, which they voted not to change. The trustees also voted to increase riskier alternative investments, raising private-equity holdings to 13% from 8% and adding a 5% allocation to private debt.”

Source: WSJ

To make matters worse, and as I am sure many of you may already know, not only are the Social Security and Medicare programs approaching a fiscal cliff, and that our federal debt is rising out of control, but as risks rise within these pension funds, so do the moral hazards being faced by our country’s retirees.

While some may not view this as dire as I may be stating above, I may have agreed with you if there was potential for this bull market to continue to extend for the next decade or more. But, that is not what I am seeing. Rather, I am foreseeing the perfect storm approaching on the horizon.

You see, as our national debt rises out of control, I am foreseeing that interest rates will likely be rising over the next decade, forcing the US government to use more of its budget to pay interest owed on the national debt. That alone is a recipe for disaster.

But, we are also heading towards a fiscal cliff for Medicare and Social Security. One of those cliffs alone is a recipe for disaster. And, when I see pension funds, many of which are already underfunded, taking on more risks as we approach what I believe is the dawn of a multi-decade bear market, this is yet another issue which, alone, is a recipe for disaster. As all these issues likely converge over the next several years, well, we are heading into the perfect storm. And, retirees seem to be caught in the crosshairs of a bazooka pointed directly at them.

Now, for those that think I am being an alarmist, a negative nelly, melodramatic, or a perma-bear, well, allow me to dispel you of that notion. You see, I have always viewed markets objectively. Allow me to give you some examples.

Back in early 2016, many expected that the market was setting up for a crash. Yet, I expected the market to drop from the 2100SPX region down towards the 1800SPX, only to be followed by a “melt-up,” wherein I believed the stock market would rally to at least the 2600SPX region, with potential to rally as high as 2880SPX. As we now know, the market certainly met my expectations.

Back in March 2020, many expected that we had just begun a major bear market. Yet, I expected the market to bottom at 2200SPX, and begin a rally with a minimum target of 4000SPX, and an ideal target in the 6000SPX region. Well, as we now know, we seem to be well on our way to my ideal 6000SPX region.

However, along with these very bullish expectations I have maintained over the years, I also have a dire projection once we strike the 6000SPX region. You see, I believe that once this rally completes over the next two years or so, I see strong potential for a multi-decade bear market to take hold. I have outlined my expectations in this past article, and you can read it for a bit more detail:

Sentiment Speaks: It's The Roaring 20's Again - Begin To Prepare For The Same Ending

Again, before you run off and believe me to be an alarmist or a perma-bear, I want to again note that I am neither a perma-bear nor a perma-bull. As many of the members of have stated, I am simply perma-profit. I retain no bias, as I look at the market in an objective manner. And, objectively, I fear for society as we look past 2023. And, it would seem that our older population may take the biggest brunt of the financial hit.

It is almost inevitable that we will likely see Social Security and Medicare benefits cut during tough times. And, if pension funds continue to remain under-funded, and begin to take on greater risks in the coming years, this will only exacerbate the issues retirees will face should the multi-decade bear market I expect take hold.

Anyone that has read me for the many years during which I have been writing publicly, you will know that, while I am human and can clearly be wrong, our macro calls about the market have rarely missed a beat. And, I foresee that the storm clouds will be forming as we look towards 2023, as the perfect storm seems to be developing.

While I intend to outline to the members of some of the moves investors may take as we approach the end of 2022, one of the areas I will be focusing upon is moving money to some of the strongest banks in the United States. To this end, I have joined forces with a banking analyst, and, in January 2022, we will be publishing a list of the 15 strong banks we have identified in the United States. I will be personally moving a lot of my own money into these banks for safety purposes before the storm begins in earnest.

Another suggestion I would strongly urge many retirees to focus upon is to lower your cost of living, as well as your debt. The simpler your needs, the easier it will be for you to come through the period of pain that I foresee in the coming two decades.

While I am going to wait until the end of 2022 to see how various markets align in order to begin to make further plans for preparation, I would strongly urge those reading my words to consider two of the suggestions I presented above before the lean years are upon us.

In the portion of the bible that religious Jews are about to read in the upcoming week, the Pharaoh of Egypt had a dream which Joseph interpreted as foreshadowing an impending 7 years of plenty to be followed by 7 years of famine. But, in our case, we may only have two years of plenty left, and it could be followed by 20 years of famine. So, you may want to begin your preparations during the final two years we may have left.

In the meantime, I am seeing a potential for a sizeable pullback in the S&P 500 as we approach the first quarter of 2022, to be followed by a very strong rally which can target 5500SPX by the end of 2022 or early 2023. You may want to use this opportunity to earn a bit more return in the stock market during the years of plenty, while you also strategically re-align your holdings to weather the upcoming storm. Thereafter, it will likely get much more difficult.

Avi Gilburt is a widely followed Elliott Wave analyst and founder of, a live trading room featuring his analysis on the S&P 500, precious metals, oil & USD, plus a team of analysts covering a range of other markets. He recently founded, a live forum featuring some of the top fundamental analysts online today to showcase research and elevate discussion for traders & investors interested in fundamental rather than technical analysis.

© 2021 Copyright Avi Gilburt - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in