Despite being skeptical of Elliott wave theory and not abiding by any of it's tenants, i.e. I number the counts as I see them regardless of following the 'rules'. Nevertheless Elliott wave proved a useful tool during 2021 in the count down to the end of the Stocks bull market and the start of this bear market as the charts illustrate that there are times when EW BS actually works!

So what does my 'skeptical' interpretation of elliott wave theory suggest for the remainder of 2022? The June bottom being a 5 wave decline to mark the A wave down, that if true should result in a powerful B wave rally that far exceeds the preceding bear market upswings, so far so good.

The FUTURE - What comes next should be a C wave decline that could either comprise 3 waves or 5 waves, since wave A comprised 5 waves then that suggests C wave will likely comprise 3 waves! Therefore EWT suggests a volatile trend to a new Dow low probably by late October targeting approx 28,600 which then should give birth to a NEW stocks BULL MARKET!.

The alternative count is...... there is no alternative count, alternative counts are for losers who hedge their bets.

Now imagine if I left my analysis at that, and the above came to pass, Roll over Prechter there is a new EW kid in town! This coin flip theory actually works! Though only if one is SKEPTICAL and FLEXIBLE in it's application and does not allow oneself to get carried away by the hype that it tends to engender in it's followers and high priests, as it can help focus one mind on price action to the extent that ones neurons fire in blast of activity to reveal a pattern that one has seen countless times before and hence has had imprinted in ones brain's pathways, can it be taught? easily replicated in others? I doubt it.

This analysis is an excerpt from forthcoming mega-analysis that just last last September aims to chart the stock markets trend well intto 2023 that will first be made available to patrons who support my work.So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Most recent analysis includes -

Whilst my recent in-depth analysis is - UK House Prices Three Trend Forecast 2022 to 2025, where I pealed away every layer of the UK housing market I could think of to arrive at a high probability of trend forecast, no following of the consensus herd here! Whilst completion of my extensive analysis of the US housing market is imminent.

UK House Prices Trend Forecast 2022 to 2025

THE INFLATION MEGA-TREND
WE HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO INVEST IN STOCKS AND HOUSING
High Inflation Forecast for Whole of this Decade Due to Rampant Money Printing
Fed Inflation Strategy Revealed
Russian Sanctions Stagflation Driver
RECESSION RISKS 2023
UK Debt Inflation Smoking Gun
Britains' Hyper Housing Market
UK Population Growth Forecast 2010 to 2030
UK House Building and Population Growth Analysis
UK Over Crowding Ratio
Overcrowding Implications for UK House Prices
UK Housing Market Affordability
UK House Prices Real Terms Sustainable Trend
UK House Prices Relative to GDP Growth
UK House Prices Momentum Forecast
UK House Prices and the Inflation Mega-trend
Lets Get Jiggy With UK INTEREST RATES
Is the US Yield Curve Inversion Broken?
UK house Prices and Yield Curve Inversions
Interest Rates How High WIll they Go?
Work From Home Inflationary BOOM?
Formulating a UK House Prices Forecast
UK House Prices 2022 to 2025 Trend Forecast Conclusion
Peering into the Mists of TIme
Risks to the Forecasts
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2022-2024

So if you want immediate access to a high probability trend forecast of UK house prices, with US and global housing markets analysis to follow soon then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

My Main Analysis Schedule

UK House Prices Trend Forecast - Complete
US House Prices Trend Forecast - 85%
Global Housing / Investing Markets - 60%
US Dollar / British Pound Trend Forecasts - 0%
Stock Market Trend forecast into End 2022 - 0%
High Risk Stocks Update - Health / Biotech Focus - 0%
How to Get Rich - 85%
Gold and Silver Analysis - 0%
State of the Crypto Markets

Again for immediate access to all my work do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

And ensure you are subscribed to my ALWAYS FREE newsletter for my next in-depth analysis.

Your watching the British pound burn at the official rate of 9.4% per annum analyst.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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