Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Friday Stock Market CRASH Following Israel Attack on Iranian Nuclear Facilities - 19th Apr 24
All Measures to Combat Global Warming Are Smoke and Mirrors! - 18th Apr 24
Cisco Then vs. Nvidia Now - 18th Apr 24
Is the Biden Administration Trying To Destroy the Dollar? - 18th Apr 24
S&P Stock Market Trend Forecast to Dec 2024 - 16th Apr 24
No Deposit Bonuses: Boost Your Finances - 16th Apr 24
Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - 8th Apr 24
Gold Is Rallying Again, But Silver Could Get REALLY Interesting - 8th Apr 24
Media Elite Belittle Inflation Struggles of Ordinary Americans - 8th Apr 24
Profit from the Roaring AI 2020's Tech Stocks Economic Boom - 8th Apr 24
Stock Market Election Year Five Nights at Freddy's - 7th Apr 24
It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- 7th Apr 24
AI Revolution and NVDA: Why Tough Going May Be Ahead - 7th Apr 24
Hidden cost of US homeownership just saw its biggest spike in 5 years - 7th Apr 24
What Happens To Gold Price If The Fed Doesn’t Cut Rates? - 7th Apr 24
The Fed is becoming increasingly divided on interest rates - 7th Apr 24
The Evils of Paper Money Have no End - 7th Apr 24
Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - 3rd Apr 24
Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend - 2nd Apr 24
Dow Stock Market Annual Percent Change Analysis 2024 - 2nd Apr 24
Bitcoin S&P Pattern - 31st Mar 24
S&P Stock Market Correlating Seasonal Swings - 31st Mar 24
S&P SEASONAL ANALYSIS - 31st Mar 24
Here's a Dirty Little Secret: Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Is Still Loose - 31st Mar 24
Tandem Chairman Paul Pester on Fintech, AI, and the Future of Banking in the UK - 31st Mar 24
Stock Market Volatility (VIX) - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 25th Mar 24
The Federal Reserve Didn't Do Anything But It Had Plenty to Say - 25th Mar 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

S&P Stock Market FOMO Rally

Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023 Feb 18, 2023 - 10:39 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock-Markets

Whilst the Dow has raged higher off its October low unfortunately our portfolios are far more in tune with the S&P which has under performed the Dow to significant degree. However the good news is that the S&P tends to outperform the Dow during bull markets so will catchup to and pass the Dow during 2023.

The S&P soared through 3900 running the stops sucking the S&P higher to 3953 as I flagged it would well ahead of the break higher in the comments section of the last posted article. So do check the comments section as I continue to provide patrons with my short-term view on a near daily basis as well as doing my utmost to answer patron queries. Also note, the Patreon app does not always show all of the charts so it is best to access the Patreon via a browser either from your phone, tablet or desktop PC rather than the from the ap.


The current state of the S&P as of 6pm UK time following the retracement of the whole rally back to below 3900 has the S&P perched precisely at 3900, this suggests to me that vested interests in the run up to options expiration seek the S&P to expire at 3900 so as to maximise profits on expiring options, that is there game plan.

Big Image - https://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/2023/Jan/SP-9th-A.jpg

This suggests any rally to above 4000 'should' prove short lived in the countdown to options expiration on the 20th of January. Whilst at the same time 3900 also acts as floor of sorts. Technically the S&P is primed for a bull run that at least targets 4000, for instance more often reliable than not swings analysis suggests the S&P could run to above 4050, which if it happened I would guard against over exuberance in getting carried away with the likes of 4300 as some where when the S&P blasted through 4100 early December as the window for this rally off the October lows is ending.

So whilst I still expect 4000 to be achieved, everything thus far suggests that the forecast decline set to commence around the middle of January will materialise thus I will see the likes of 4050 as a bonus for further trimming. And as my Dow analysis suggests it is possible we blast off into space, but that is NOT my base case which remains as per my October 5th concluding trend forecast.

So my game plan is to continue to trim during this rally, to exit my remaining March Call options preferably with the S&P trading above 4000 whist at the same time starting to accumulate S&P Put options most likely for June expiry. And should the S&P clear 4000 then many of the stocks will fall into shorting price zones which means I will open small covered short positions on a select handful of stocks such as Tesla, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Roblox etc, where should the stocks rally then I will trim to a greater extent than the size of the short positions thus resulting a net profit against the shorts, whilst also generating cash for reinvestment at lower levels if the stocks suffer deep draw downs.

So small short positions with wide stops of typically 15% that are covered by investments (long positions) should the Dow rip your face off rally materialise, thus I will end up making far greater profit on the longs then lost on the shorts. I view stock shorts more as trying to earn income during a temporary draw down, I.e. if Apple fell from $130 to $110 then exit the Apple shorts at a profit and use the funds to buy more Apple stock at $110.

Well that’s the plan, remains to be seen if it plays out as I expect it to do or not,

So in summary my base case remains in expectations for a significant Q1 correction to kick in off of S&P 4000 Mid Jan 2023, so any rally to beyond 4000 should prove short lived, probably similar to the 13th December spike high reversal.So if you are looking to trim and failed to do so during the two preceding spikes above 4000 then this is likely your third and final chance to do so.

This article is an excerpt from Stock Market Gasping to Reach 4000 Ahead of Earnings Season, Dow New All Time High 2023? that was first made available to patrons who support my work.So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $5 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Immediate first access to ahead of the curve analysis as my extensive analysis of the stock market illustrates (Stocks Bear Market Max PAIN - Trend Forecast Analysis to Dec 2023 - Part1), that continues on in the comments section of each posted article, all for just 5 bucks per month which is nothing, if you can't afford 5 bucks for month then what you doing reading this article, 5 bucks is nothing, if someone did what I am doing then I would gladly pay 5 bucks for it! Signup for 1 month for a taste of the depth of analysis that cannot be beat by those charging $100+ per month! I am too cheap! I am keeping my analysis accessible to all, those willing to learn because where investing is concerned the sooner one gets going the better as portfolios compound over time, $5 month is nothing for what you get access to so at least give it a try, read the comments, see the depth of analysis, you won't be sorry because i do do my best by my patrons, go the extra mile.

And gain access to the following most recent analysis -

So for immediate first access to to all of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $5 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

My Main Analysis Schedule:

  • US House Prices Trend Forecast - 50%
  • Global Housing / Investing Markets - 50%
  • US Dollar / British Pound Trend Forecasts - 0%
  • High Risk Stocks Update - Health / Biotech Focus - 0%
  • State of the Crypto Markets
  • Gold and Silver Analysis - 0%
  • How to Get Rich - 75%

Again for immediate access to all my work do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $5 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

And ensure you are subscribed to my ALWAYS FREE newsletter for my next in-depth analysis.

Your trim FOMO rally buy the DIP analyst.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2023 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in