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How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Market Trend Forecast 2024

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024 Jun 15, 2024 - 02:26 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat


As I voiced in my preceding analysis that failure of the Feb to March correction results in the following consequences -

a. It increases the probability for the other 2 corrections to materialise i.e. it was always a toss up whether we see 2 or 3 corrections during the year, where 2023 saw 2 corrections and thus tipped it in favour to expect 3 for 2024.

b. That failure of the Feb / March correction brought the May to June correction forward into April as illustrated by the original trend forecast.

S&P Stock Market Analysis, Detailed Trend Forecast Jan to Dec 2024

My original expectations are for the 2nd correction to begin Mid April and to run into Mid June. Where the failure of the first correction brought the correction forward to the start of April, though truth be told I have not been focused on the what the S&P has been doing instead seeking to capitalise on the mini mania under way in tech stocks with significant trimming of most holdings on a case by case basis where the last big sell was of LRCX at $960, reducing my position down to 20% invested of target exposure. Note exposure is hard cash invested which the act of trimming and re buying reduces down towards zero, though obviously one needs to have the mini FOMO's to trim into. So the reality is the stock market indices entering into a correction early April IS as per forecast despite the fact that many tech stocks such as AMD entered into their corrections several weeks earlier. Where the trend forecast is for a 2 month correction that will likely terminate early June for a bull run into Mid August as forecast.

The S&P triggering points are 5140 to target 5060 (done), 5060 to target 4960 (done) and a break of 4960 to target 4800 which should be the direction of travel for a basing pattern between 4860 and 4760.

Whilst my forecast is for 5376, however as I indicated in recent analysis I would not be surprised by overshoot to the upside that sees the S&P trade as high as 5600 this year.

The big picture remains for a multi year bull market off of the October 2022 low, so folks sat on the sidelines have missed 18 months months of a bull market! Just think about that for a moment! They have been sat on parked in money market accounts because they paid attention to the likes of clown cramer and the cartoon network! 18 months and they are going to increasingly become desperate to get on board the gravy trains, everyone wants to know when the bull market will end, I can guess and say we are probably at the half way mark though that does not mean it will end late 2025, it's too far away in terms of time, all I know is we have a lot further to go.

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TSM - $127.EGF +4%, +30%, PE 24.3, PE Range 73%
TSLA - $147 - EGF -21%, +2%, P/E 47, PE Range -75%
RTX $102 - EGF +2%, +356%. PE 20
META $481 - EGF +24%, +39%, PE 30.9, PE Range 153%
IBM $181 - EGF +14%, +7%, PE 18.9, PE range 337%
Lam Research - $870, EGF +8%, +16%, PE 31.8, PE Range 173%
Google $156 - EGF +8%, +25%, PE 26.8, 89% of PE Range
INTEL $34, EGF R29%, R62%, PE 34.2, PE Range 1300%
Microsoft $399 - EGFs +4%, +12%, PE 36.1, PE Range 82%
KLAC $628 - EGFs -2%, +9%, PE 19, PE Range 164%.
WD $66, EGFs -83%, -154%, PE -11
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By Nadeem Walayat

Copyright © 2005-2023 (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction.

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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