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Category: US Bonds

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Tuesday, January 29, 2013

Why Are Yields on U.S. Treasuries Rising All of a Sudden? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Profit_Confidential

Michael Lombardi writes: Could U.S. debt be reaching a breaking point?

In the chart below of the U.S. 10-year Treasury, it looks like yields on U.S. bonds have bottomed out and are rising again.

As the chart below shows, in June of 2012, the U.S. 10-year Treasury note traded close to $135.00. Now 10-year Treasury prices have broken below $131.00—a decline of almost three percent.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, January 18, 2013

U.S. Treasury Bond Market Forecast 2013, The "Bloated" Bubble / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Gordon_T_Long

The Fiscal Cliff theater was great 'off Broadway' drama, but the real show for traders took center stage Sunday December 16th in Japan. The curtain went up for the newly elected Prime Minister of Japan as the star actor in the unfolding global fiat currency drama.

Japan’s incoming leader Shinzo Abe's opening line was to vow to ram through full-blown reflation policies to pull his country out of slump and drive down the yen, warning Japan's central bank not to defy the will of the people. The profound shift in economic strategy by the world’s top creditor nation with a quadrillion Yen debt,  could prove powerful for the global economy as a new variant of the "carry trade" seen earlier this decade, but potentially on a much larger scale.  

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, January 17, 2013

Bond Market Math / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Fred_Sheehan

This is the year for stocks. So one would gather from the media. The Wall Street Journal offered a lukewarm endorsement on Monday, January 15, 2012, with the headline: "Investors Flock to Stocks - So Far."

The diffident prediction opens: "As 2013 gets underway, one of the biggest questions in financial markets is again bubbling: Will this be the year that investors dump bonds and return to stocks?" The question may have surprised some readers. The S&P 500 has risen 120%, or, at a 21 percent-a-year pace since March 2009. How did stock prices more than double since investors have dumped stocks and bought bonds? A second question: what might we expect of stock market returns if investors stop taking money out of the market and put it in - 40% a year?

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, January 16, 2013

The Fiscal Cliff Deal Just Made U.S. Bonds Even More Risky in 2013 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Money_Morning

Martin Hutchinson writes: It was shaping up to be another be another strong year for U.S. Treasury Bonds right up until the moment it looked like a fiscal cliff deal would be reached.

Since then, 10-year notes yields have been on the rise jumping by as much as 23 basis points since New Year’s Eve. Now you have to wonder whether or not the bond bubble has suddenly sprung a leak.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, January 05, 2013

Over Due U.S. Treasury Bond Sell-off To Become More Serious! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Sy_Harding

With my indicators on a sell signal for bonds since August 16, I have been warning about bonds being overbought and in danger of rolling over into a serious correction for several months. And indeed, the 20-year U.S. Treasury bond has already lost 11% of its value just since its late July peak.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, January 04, 2013

U.S. Treasury Bonds, The Worst Investment for 2013 and the Next Decade / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: InvestmentContrarian

Sasha Cekerevac writes: One of the biggest investor mistakes by the average retail investor is to be late to cash in on an investment theme. These investor mistakes are not limited to just the stock market, but all types of investments. If we look at investor mistakes by the retail public for buying real estate, most people were bullish at the top of the market and were selling, or were forced to sell, their real estate at the bottom. Buying high and selling low is one of the most common investor mistakes by the majority of the public.

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Politics

Friday, January 04, 2013

U.S. Treasury Bond Market's Last Pillar Crumbles / Politics / US Bonds

By: Peter_Schiff

With the return of Shinzo Abe and his Liberal Democratic Party to power in Japan, the market for US Treasuries may be losing its last external pillar of support. Re-elected on September 26th, Abe has quickly set a course for limitless inflation, saying Japan must "free itself from deflation and the strong yen." This is significant to the global economy as Japan is the largest foreign power left with a strong appetite for US Treasuries. If this demand falters, the Fed may be the only remaining buyer of new Treasury issuance.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, December 29, 2012

What Happens When the Bond Markets Turn Against the US? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Graham_Summers

The US Fed is committed to keeping interest rates low for the simple fact that if interest rates were to rise then the payments on the debt would send the US into an EU-syle debt crisis along with the commensurate intense austerity measures being implemented.

Unfortunately for the Fed, the bond markets may indeed force this in spite of the Fed’s efforts.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, December 20, 2012

U.S. Treasury Bond Yield Operation Twise and QE3 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: PhilStockWorld

Courtesy of Doug Short. I’ve updated the charts below through yesterday’s close. The S&P 500 is now only 1.29% off its interim high of 1,465.77 set on September 14th, the day after QE3 was announced. The interim low since then was 1,353.52, a decline of 7.66% a month later on November 15. The 10-year note closed yesterday at 1.84, which is only 4 basis points off its interim high of 1.88, also set the day after QE3 was announced. The historic closing low was 1.43 on July 25th. With what looks like a Santa Rally in stocks underway, yields have risen to levels last seen about two months ago. What will be particularly interesting is how yields (and equities) fare in the last four market days of 2012 if the various Fiscal Cliff issues are not resolved by the end of this week.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, December 18, 2012

Hidden U.S. Treasury Bond Market Risks? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Axel_Merk

While Treasuries are said to have no default risk as the Federal Reserve (Fed) can always print money to pay off the debt, hidden risks might be lurking. As oxymoronic as it may sound, the biggest risk to the economy and the U.S. dollar might be, well, economic growth! Let us explain.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, December 09, 2012

U.S. Treasury Bond Market Yields Update / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: PhilStockWorld

Courtesy of Doug Short. I’ve updated the charts below through today’s close. The S&P 500 is now 3.25% off its interim high of 1,465.77 set on September 14th, the day after QE3 was announced. The interim low since then was 1,353.52, a decline of 7.66% a month later on November 15. The 10-year note closed today at 1.64, which is 24 basis points off its interim high of 1.88, also set the day after QE3 was announced. The historic closing low was 1.43 on July 25th. The latest Freddie Mac Weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey puts the 30-year fixed at 3.34 percent, three basis point above its historic low set two weeks ago.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, November 30, 2012

Will the U.S. Treasury Bond Bubble Finally Burst in 2013 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Money_Morning

Shah Gilani writes: The Federal Reserve's multi-year prescription of targeting super-low interest rates on federal funds, along with various quantitative easing programs, has pushed yields down on all fixed-income instruments to the benefit of issuers and the detriment of investors.

There is little doubt that the Fed's articulated and executed policies have resulted in a bond-bubble with both short and long-term consequences for investors and the economy.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, October 19, 2012

Is Bernanke Losing Control? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Marty_Chenard

We all know the talk ... Bernanke has a mission to keep long term interest and mortgage rates low. And, low mortgage rates will be good for housing and the economy.

But ... is Bernanke getting into trouble relative to his ability to keep rates low?

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, October 10, 2012

The Muni Bond Market Minefield / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Neeraj_Chaudhary

Municipal bonds have long been viewed as a staple asset class for conservative, income-seeking investors. "Munis," as they are known, are a large, liquid market of credit-rated securities that provide tax-exempt (from Federal taxes) income to millions of American investors. Towns, school districts, and other public sector authorities across the country have issued an estimated $3.7 trillion dollars worth of these bonds. 

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, September 20, 2012

Bond Market Investors Set up for a Shock, Major Top in Bond Markets / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EWI

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDuring market pullbacks, financial advisors use a boilerplate response: "Let's rebalance the portfolio." Investors have heard that one for years.

The recommended allocation varies depending on a client's age and risk tolerance, but it typically involves shifting funds from stocks to bond holdings.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, September 18, 2012

U.S. Treasury Bond Market Major Top Report / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EWI

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBOND YIELDS ARE POISED TO BEGIN RISING ON THE WAY TO DEFLATIONARY CREDIT CRISIS

U.S Treasury Bonds Our long term outlook for interest rates on U.S. Treasury securities has been a contrary opinion for many years. Most commentators have been expecting either economic expansion or Fed-induced inflation to push bond yields higher. Conquer the Crash predicted that long term rates on AAA-rated bonds would fall much further as the monetary environment shifted from lessening inflation to outright deflation. Figure 1 shows the forecast from 2002, and Figure 2 updates the graph to the present.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, August 05, 2012

How to Prepare for the U.S. Treasury Bond Market Apocalypse / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Investment_U

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAlexander Green writes: The Wall Street Journal made an interesting observation recently, “Treasury bonds are priced for the end of the world.”

It was a news article, not an opinion piece. But it happens to be the viewpoint of virtually every investor with half a brain – or a modicum of common sense. A few months ago, for instance, the world’s best-known investor, Warren Buffett, wrote in his annual letter to shareholders, “Right now bonds should come with a warning label.”

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, July 26, 2012

US Treasury Bonds False Safe Haven, GOLD is the True Sanctuary / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs preface, consider that the USTreasury 10-year yield went below 1.4% this week. Some unenlightened celebrate the asset appreciation and point to a successful asset in performance in an otherwise dismal financial market. The Jackass said in the June 6th public article "USTBonds: Black Hole Dynamics" that such a success is a marquee billboard message of economic meltdown and systemic failure. As the rally continues, possibly the onliest rally outside of corn and soybeans in yet another disaster, people should focus on whether the systemic collapse will occur before the 10-yield hits 1.0% in my warning. Focus on four major points:

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, July 11, 2012

U.S. Treasury Bond Yields Reach New Low / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Donald_W_Dony

US bond yields have been in a secular decline for over 20 years. The recent movement out of risk and growth assets and into the safety of fixed income has pushed the yield on 30-year US Treasuries down to a new low- 2.53%.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, July 03, 2012

U.S. Treasury Bonds Bear Market Underway? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Tony_Caldaro

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWe believe the multi-decade Bond bull market is coming to an end. We have been tracking the typical choppy action in long, and short, term rates for a number of years now. While many turned bearish on Bonds in 2010 and 2011, we remained bullish for two specific reasons. First, the 30 year Bond rate had not made a new bear market low. Second, the declining phase of the 68 year Bond cycle had not displayed any signs of bottoming. Recently this has changed.

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