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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: US Bonds

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

InvestorEducation

Friday, June 19, 2009

U.S. Treasury Bonds Bear Market Final Head-Fake / InvestorEducation / US Bonds

By: John_Handbury

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMy past articles have offered excellent advice, for example, buying Eurodollars (July 2008) and shorting gold (April 2008). The last two years have been profitable.

This trade is my most confident yet....

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Interest-Rates

Monday, June 15, 2009

How to Profit From Front-Running the Government Bond Auctions / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: DailyWealth

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleTom Dyson writes: Front-running is illegal.

Here's how it works: A crooked broker receives a large order from a customer. Before he executes the customer's order, he'll buy the stock in his own account. The customer's order pushes the price of the stock up and gives him an easy profit.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, June 15, 2009

The Secular Trend Change in U.S. Treasury Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Guy_Lerner

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI am on record stating that yields on the 10 year Treasury bond will move higher over the next 12 months, and this will represent a secular trend change.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, June 13, 2009

U.S. Fed in Trouble as Falling Dollar Risks Bond Investors Revolt / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Submissions

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFrank Shostak writes: A growing concern for Fed policy makers is a weakening in the US dollar against major currencies. The price of the euro in US-dollar terms climbed from a low of $1.27 in November last year to around $1.41 in May and $1.43 in early June – an increase of 12.6% from November. The major currencies dollar index fell to 78.89 in May from 82.3 in April – a fall of 4.1%. If the declining trend in the US dollar were to consolidate, this could cause foreign holders of US-dollar assets to divest into non-dollar-denominated assets and precious metals. This in turn could spark another financial crisis.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, June 12, 2009

Technical Rally in Treasury Bonds TLT ETF / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Paulenoff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE: TLT) continues to climb off of yest.'s new low of 87.45 (that occurred ahead of the 30 year auction results), which has triggered buy signals in my work (above 89.30/40) for upside continuation to 92.00 next. Has anything changed that has all of a sudden made longer term Treasury bonds more attractive FUNDAMENTALLY? For the time being, the upmove is mostly considered a sling-shot from a very oversold condition.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, June 11, 2009

U.S. Treasury Bonds Volatility and Interest Rate Swaps / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe rising long-term USTreasury Bond yield continues to capture attention. The breakout chart for the 10-year Treasury shot up to 3.75% last week, but zoomed to touch 4.0% this week. Less attention has been directed at the short-term USTreasury Bill yields. What was a reasonably steady 2-year TBill yield in the 0.80% to 1.0% range has made a big move to 1.35% suddenly. Few have noticed, since mortgage rates are tied to the 10-year USTreasury. Much talk came in the last few weeks that China was rebalancing its USTreasury hoard, selling some long-term maturity bonds and buying shorter-term maturity bills. The rise in bond yields has actually been attributed to a USEconomic recovery, but that is absurd on its face, with a dozen statistics to debunk it. This China story was intended to mask the real events, to blame them in part for the US bond instability, and to divert attention away from a potentially important threat. Not only has the housing market stalled, with new mortgages and refinanced loans hitting a brick wall.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, June 10, 2009

Anatomy Of A Treasury Bond Market Top / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Guy_Lerner

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOne of the major themes that I have been highlighting on this blog since its inception 6 months ago is the potential for a secular trend change in long term Treasury bonds. Starting back in December, 2008, there was a high likelihood of higher yields and lower bond prices. Last month provided technical confirmation that the top is in for Treasury bonds, and we should see yield pressures in the long end of the curve lasting at least 12 months.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, June 09, 2009

As Treasury Bond Yields Rise, Why Are Other Yields Falling? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere is a lot in the press these days about how the recent rise in Treasury bond yields has the potential to abort a nascent economic recovery. To this I say, nonsense! Chart 1 shows that as the Treasury bond yield has risen in recent weeks, the yields on privately-issued debt have declined in absolute levels. Chart 2 shows that the stock market has been trending higher since March as the Treasury bond yield has risen.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, June 09, 2009

Seasonal's and Fundamentals Supportive of Treasury Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Levente_Mady

The bond market sold off another four and a half points during the course of last week.  Market participants seem to be convinced that the worst is behind us as they were busy selling more bonds and buying whatever else they could get their dirty paws on.  This week there is another set of 3, 10 and 30 year Treasury auctions on deck.  That ought to hold the market back at the outset, but perhaps not after Thursday’s long bond auction.

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InvestorEducation

Monday, June 08, 2009

Geithner on a Fool’s Errand in China / InvestorEducation / US Bonds

By: LewRockwell

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBill Bonner writes: This week brought an entertaining episode. Wall Street’s man in Washington, incidentally Secretary of the US Treasury, was sent to Beijing. His mission: to convince the canny Chinese of something that everyone knows is untrue – that US bonds are safe. But if the Americans keep faith with China, it won’t be for lack of trying.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, June 05, 2009

Team Obama Charm Offensive on U.S. Treasury Bond Holders / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Peter_Schiff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis week, Team Obama took their dog and pony show on the road. Treasury Secretary Geithner went to China, Fed Chairman Bernanke to Capitol Hill, and the President himself began a Mideast tour in Saudi Arabia. This full-court press is not coincidental, and comes just as the federal government has begun unloading trillions of dollars in new Treasury obligations. The coordinated charm offensive is meant to assure the world-at-large that the United States can repay these obligations without destroying the dollar.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, June 03, 2009

Geithner's Debt Dialogue With China, but the U.S. Dollar May Still be Doomed / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJason Simpkins writes:Two days of talks between U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner and Chinese officials culminated yesterday (Tuesday) with both parties reaffirming their confidence in the value of the dollar, and the viability of U.S. debt.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, June 02, 2009

Geithner & China on U.S. Treasury Bonds Sales Trip: Who Are You Fooling? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Axel_Merk

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleTreasury Secretary Tim Geithner’s trip to Asia has been heralded as a sales trip aimed at convincing the Chinese to keep buying U.S. Treasuries and thereby finance U.S. deficits. Such headlines are, in my humble opinion, an insult to the Chinese. Over and over again, we fall victim of the temptation to believe that Chinese leaders act in a vacuum, dictating policies out of a closet. Chinese leaders know very well the state of the Chinese, the U.S., and the world economy; they don’t need a sales pitch. So what’s the purpose of Geithner’s trip then?

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InvestorEducation

Monday, June 01, 2009

Fed Credibility Bubble Bursts as Too Big to Fail General Motors Goes Bankrupt / InvestorEducation / US Bonds

By: Money_and_Markets

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMartin Weiss writes: General Motors used to be among the giant companies widely considered “too big to fail.”

Almost all of Wall Street said a GM bankruptcy was “unthinkable.” Most Americans didn’t even consider it as a real possibility. And as recently as February, outgoing and incoming administration officials were still insisting they would never let it happen.

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InvestorEducation

Monday, June 01, 2009

U.S. Bond Market Vigilantes Demand Higher Interest Rates / InvestorEducation / US Bonds

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMartin here with a quick note to give you a unique perspective on what’s happening right now.

For many months, we’ve warned that Washington does NOT have a blank check to fight this crisis; there’s a limit to how much Washington can borrow and spend without serious consequences.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, June 01, 2009

U.S. Treasury Bond Market Oversold, Strong Seasonal Influences Supportive of a Rally / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Levente_Mady

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe bond market sold off another three and a half points during the course of last week before managing to recover to almost unchanged for the week.  It was one of the strangest weeks of trading activity that I have seen in a long time.  While the economic data offered no major surprises to drive substantial moves in yields, the focus appeared to be on the Treasury auction calendar. 

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, May 31, 2009

U.S.Treasury Bonds in the Eye of the Financial Storm / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBryan Rich writes: The U.S. Treasury bond market has become the focal point of financial markets for the past several trading days. And when Treasury bonds move, so does the dollar.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, May 29, 2009

Treasury Bond TLT ETF Rallying / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Paulenoff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIt is interesting that the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE: TLT) is rallying with the commodity sector today.  Yes, the TLTs are very oversold, so let’s not read too much into today’s strength.  However, I am suspicious that the strength just might be a reflection of anticipated Fed activity and buying interest in the long end – to prevent a back-up in mortgage rates and/or a derailment of fledgling economic recovery regardless of an increase in inflationary perceptions. 

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, May 28, 2009

U.S. Treasury Bond Market Massacred; Yield Curve Steepest On Record / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBernanke cannot have his cake and eat it too. If the economy is recovering the yield curve should steepen. And steepen it has. The Yield Curve Is Steepest On Record.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, May 28, 2009

Quantitative Easing Pushes U.S. Treasury Bonds Into Secular Bear Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Guy_Lerner

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA monthly close over 3.432% confirms the secular trend change in the 10 year Treasury bond that I have been expecting and writing about for over 6 months. I am expecting yields pressures to persist for the next 12 months.

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