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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: GeoPolitics

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Politics

Tuesday, November 28, 2023

Taiwan 2024 Election: Militarization or Development / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: Dan_Steinbock


Taiwan's elections loom just a few weeks away. Continued militarization would undermine past economic success. Taiwan is at its ultimate crossroads.

Taiwan’s presidential elections will be held on January 13, 2024. Re-elected in 2020, the incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen cannot seek a third term. 

Tsai’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has been a divisive force that has benefited from President Obama’s pivot to Asia, Trump’s efforts at effective normalization and Biden’s attempt to capitalize on the consequent tensions to contain China’s economic rise regionally and globally.
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Politics

Saturday, May 28, 2022

Why Ray Dalio is WRONG About Rise of China - Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Ray Dalio's new book and associated video Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order paints picture for the inevitable rise of China to displace the United States following inevitable military conflict that will usher in a NEW Chinese World Order

However after watching Roy Dalio's video I see at least 3 major flaws in his rise of China to displace the US thesis.

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Politics

Monday, September 20, 2021

New arms race and nuclear risks could spell End to the Asian Century / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: Dan_Steinbock

Since 1945, the only successful economic modernization worldwide has occurred in Asia, with focus on economic development. After a decade of US pivot to the region, arms races and nuclear risks are rising.         

According to the new trilateral security pact (AUKUS) between the United States, the UK and Australia, Washington and London will “help” Canberra to develop and deploy nuclear-powered submarines.

The $66 billion deal effectively killed Australia’s $90 billion conventional sub deal with France, thereby causing a major ruckus with Washington’s NATO partner.

Stunningly, US and Australian officials had been in secret talks for months over the plan that was hatched more than a year ago by the far-right Trump administration. Yet, it was both embraced and accelerated by the Biden White House, which claimed to offer an “alternative” to four years of Trump devastation.
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Politics

Tuesday, August 27, 2019

The British Betrayal of Hong Kong / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: BATR

What a long yesteryear between the British Empire and the Chinese Dynasty. The English Crown used the Opium Wars to subjugate the Red Dragon and keep it at bay. A brief summary of the East India Company and the HSBC Bank: Secret Origins To Laundering The World's Drug Money is crucial to understand the role of the City of London in establishing a global trading cartel.

"As the opium and other trade with China expanded, Britain’s new territory of Hong Kong became a major imperial commercial center. The opium dealers gathered together to form a bank, the Hongkong and Shanghai Bank, as the financial flagship of the British opium trade. Over time, the bank—now known as HSBC—would extend its reach into the drug fields of the Middle East and Ibero-America, as befitting its role as the financial kingpin of Dope, Inc."

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Politics

Saturday, August 10, 2019

Neoliberalism Has Met Its Match in China / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: Ellen_Brown

When the Federal Reserve cut interest rates last week, commentators were asking why. According to official data, the economy was rebounding, unemployment was below 4% and gross domestic product growth was above 3%. If anything, by the Fed’s own reasoning, it should have been raising rates.

Market pundits explained that we’re in a trade war and a currency war. Other central banks were cutting their rates, and the Fed had to follow suit in order to prevent the dollar from becoming overvalued relative to other currencies. The theory is that a cheaper dollar will make American products more attractive in foreign markets, helping our manufacturing and labor bases.

Over the weekend, President Trump followed the rate cuts by threatening to impose, on Sept. 1, a new 10% tariff on $300 billion worth of Chinese products. China responded by suspending imports of U.S. agricultural products by state-owned companies and letting the value of the yuan drop. On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped nearly 770 points, its worst day in 2019. The war was on.

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Politics

Friday, July 05, 2019

The Geopolitical Winds are Shifting / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: Raul_I_Meijer

How do you define terror? Perhaps, because of the way the term has evolved in the English language, one wouldn’t call the west ‘terrorists’ per se, but ‘we’ are certainly spreading terror and terrorizing very large groups of people. Yeah, bring on the tanks and parade them around town. Add a marching band that plays some war tunes.

The ‘official’ storyline : at the request of the US, Gibraltar police and UK marines have seized an oil tanker in Gibraltar. The super-tanker, 1000 feet (330 meters) long, carrying 2 million barrels, had stopped there after sailing all around the Cape of Good Hope instead of taking the Suez canal on its way, ostensibly, from Iran to Syria.

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Politics

Monday, May 20, 2019

US - Iran War Safe-haven Reasons to Own Gold / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: Richard_Mills

“It’s the tail that wags the dog” is defined by Urban Dictionary as a way of persuading a large group of people. The phrase is usually employed in a situation wherein a cause that expects to elicit a certain effect, is in fact reversed.

The 1997 film ‘Wag the Dog’ is about a powerful political strategist who tries to get a fictional president on board with a PR campaign involving the US invasion of Albania, a tiny country in eastern Europe, in order to divert attention from a scandal at home just two weeks before an election.

Of course, you don’t need to watch a movie to know this. There are plenty of real-life examples of presidents who used foreign invasions, coups, wars, etc. to demonstrate strong leadership and thereby shore up faltering popularity at home.

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Politics

Thursday, January 10, 2019

America's New Africa Strategy / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: Dan_Steinbock

Recently, the White House released its new U.S. Africa strategy, which seeks militarization and portrays China as a threat. Both are misguided. Africa can greatly benefit from Chinese and U.S. economic development.

On December 13, 2018, U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton gave a speech in the conservative Heritage Foundation about the Trump administration’s new “Africa strategy,” based on Trump’s ‘America First’ foreign policy doctrine.

In the United States, the media focus was on Bolton’s attack against U.S. adversaries and American aid. Specifically, Boston accused Russia and China of “predatory practices” in Africa.

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Politics

Tuesday, January 08, 2019

Here’s Why Trump Could Soon Turn on Europe / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: John_Mauldin

2018’s Buenos Aires G20 summit was a chance for world leaders to forge common ground on important global issues.

That’s not exactly what happened. But President Trump’s trade discussion with Chinese president Xi Jinping looked initially like a bright spot.

They agreed to stop making things worse for a few months, at least. Markets were more skeptical after digesting the news. And rightly so.

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Politics

Thursday, June 14, 2018

Trump-Kim Deal and the Long Path to Peace in the Korean Peninsula / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: Dan_Steinbock

The new Trump-Kim joint agreement could prove a promising ‘memorandum of understanding.’ However, it is not just about denuclearization; it should also be about peace and U.S. withdrawal from the Korean peninsula.

Here are the facts: Following hours of closed-door talks in the Hotel Capella Singapore, President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un signed a joint four-point agreement: to establish new US-North Korean relations, a stable peace regime, a North Korean commitment to achieve the “complete denuclearization” of the Korean peninsula, and the repatriation of the remains of American prisoners of war.

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Politics

Monday, June 11, 2018

When Trump Met Fibonacci And Won / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Something curious happened during the Trump love fest at the G7 over the weekend. And I don’t think many people would have got it. In fact the entire western press, far as I could see, were blaming Trump for the dissolution of the treaties and whatall that the political class had worked so hard on for 50+ years.

But when you look at the whole thing from an energy level, Trump obviously won hands down. Merkel, Macron and Trudeau had no idea what to do with such a disruptive figure -though it could hardly have been a surprise to them- and so they sort of cowered back into a defensive posture as a group, saying Trump shouldn’t rock their boat. But that’s what he came there to do.

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Politics

Tuesday, May 22, 2018

How TIME’s Bremmer Got Duterte Wrong / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: Dan_Steinbock

Today, global dominant media is often exploited as a tool of coercive diplomacy. The recent Time commentary on the Philippines president is a case in point. The real story is behind the story.

In early May, Time magazine released the feature story, “The Strongmen Era,” by Ian Bremmer, the venerable president of Eurasia Group. The cover featured the photos of Russian President Putin, Hungarian Prime Minister Urban, Turkey’s President Erdogan, and Philippines President Duterte. It was a promotional piece for Bremmer’s new book on globalization. As Duterte reject the term “strongman,” Bremmer penned a new attack.

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Politics

Thursday, March 29, 2018

Location, Location and Nerve Agents - The Skripals Poisening Saga / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: Raul_I_Meijer

I am gullible. Very. I betcha I am more gullible than you. And that tells you something, because you know how gullible you are. Or so you think. Still, as bad as I got it, something physically snapped in the back of my head this morning, I could hear it snap, when I saw this Guardian headline:

Skripals Poisoned From Front Door Of Salisbury Home, Police Say

Detectives investigating the attempted murders of Russian double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia Skripal have said they believe the pair were poisoned with a nerve agent at the front door of his Salisbury home. Specialists investigating the poisoning of the the Skripals have found the highest concentration of the nerve agent on the front door at the address, police said. Counter-terrorism detectives will continue to focus their inquiries on the home address for the coming weeks, and possibly months…

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Politics

Sunday, March 04, 2018

Putin - The Man Who Stopped Washington’s Regime Change Rampage / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: Mike_Whitney

“It is essential to provide conditions for creative labor and economic growth at a pace that would put an end to the division of the world into permanent winners and permanent losers. The rules of the game should give the developing economies at least a chance to catch up with those we know as developed economies. We should work to level out the pace of economic development, and brace up backward countries and regions so as to make the fruit of economic growth and technological progress accessible to all. Particularly, this would help to put an end to poverty, one of the worst contemporary problems.” Vladimir Putin, President Russian Federation, Meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club

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Politics

Friday, January 19, 2018

5 Maps And Charts That Predict Geopolitical Trends In 2018 / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: John_Mauldin

5 Maps And Charts That Predict Geopolitical Trends In 2018

BY JACOB SHAPIRO : Almost a year ago to the day, we wrote an article titled "The Geopolitics of 2017 in Four Maps." As it turned out, that article was one of our most popular in 2017.

We return this year with a similar concept in mind. Here are some of our best charts and maps from the past year, with an explanation of why each graphic is crucial for understanding the geopolitical forces to watch in the year ahead.

Let’s dive in.

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Politics

Monday, January 08, 2018

Blowup with China or North Korea Could Change Almost Everything Overnight / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: MoneyMetals

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome in Gordon Chang, author, television pundit, and columnist at the Daily Beast. Gordon is a frequent guest on Fox News, CNBC, and CNN, among others, and is one of the foremost experts on Asian economics and geopolitics, having written books on the subject and it's great to have him back on with us.

Gordon, it's a real honor to have you on again, and thanks so much for your time today. I know it's been a busy week for you given all of your media appearances, and we're grateful that you could join us today. How are you?

Gordon Chang: I'm fine, thank you, and thank you so much, Mike. I really appreciate the opportunity.

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Politics

Thursday, January 04, 2018

War, Peace and Recession 2018 / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: EconMatters

December and January are usually two busy months for researchers as they release prediction/forecast of the New Year. We are going to briefly discuss two such forecasts here.

Top 5 World War III Crises

The first one is a geopolitical forecast, 5 Places World War III Could Start in 2018, published last month. Now let’s take a quick look at the top five crises that could lead to the greatest conflict in 2018:

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Politics

Monday, December 04, 2017

Heaven Forbid Peace Should Break Out Between the US and North Korea! / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: Antonius_Aquinas

As long as the US Empire can be funded and maintained on the backs of its taxpaying public, the chance of de-escalation of tensions not only on the Korean peninsula, but throughout the world are practically nil.  And, as long as the nation’s current interventionist ideology holds sway, it will only be through a financial meltdown that the US’s role as global policeman will come to a much-needed end.

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Politics

Monday, November 20, 2017

Trump’s Asia Strategy, Goals and Realities / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: Dan_Steinbock

Trump’s critics claim he lacks a comprehensive approach to Asia. In reality, his current approach is aligned with moderate “America First” goals. But what did Trump really achieve in Asia?

If President Obama’s pivot was based on multilateral trade agreements, which were mainly geopolitical and predicated on exclusionary politics against China, Trump’s interest is in bilateral trade deals, which are fueled by US exports, foreign investments in US jobs and foreign purchases of American military weaponry.

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Politics

Friday, November 17, 2017

The New US-Chinese Globalization Opportunity / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: Dan_Steinbock

While US postwar policies in Asia are shifting, a new Sino-US historical opportunity has emerged. US and Chinese visions of globalization could still prove complementary.

President Trump’s grueling 12-day Asia tour took place amid a worrisome historical moment. Since the mid-2010s, global economic integration - as measured by trade, investment and migration - has come to a standstill. Trade has been falling. Investment continues to stagnate. And slower migration has given rise to elevated global displacement and refugee crises - the worst since 1945.
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