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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Election Oracle

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

ElectionOracle

Thursday, June 08, 2017

UK General Election BBC Exit Polls Forecast Accuracy / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Over 50,000 polling stations are open today across the UK to cope with the expected demand from an estimated 32 million voters out of a total of approx 47 million eligible to vote. With all eyes turned to the next big event of election night, the BBC EXIT POLL to follow within minutes of the polls closing at 10pm. Which unlike the multitudes of daily opinion polls that have been all over the place for the past month, the exit poll should provide an accurate gauge of what is the probable outcome of the general election some 6 hours before enough seats have been counted to make the actual result clear.

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ElectionOracle

Thursday, June 08, 2017

FTSE Stocks, Bonds and Sterling Calm Ahead of UK Election Result Storm? / ElectionOracle / Financial Markets 2017

By: Nadeem_Walayat

UK stocks, bonds and sterling were calm ahead of the result of the UK general election, where effectively the financial markets are discounting a Conservative election victory on an INCREASED majority in Theresa May's BrExit election, where the higher the number of seats gained by the Tories then the more positive the market response is likely to be. However should the markets also get it wrong this time as they had for the EU Referendum then all hell could once more break lose. But for the time being the markets are calm.

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ElectionOracle

Thursday, June 08, 2017

General Election Latest Opinion Polls and Betting Market Forecasts / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The 2017 General Election has proved to be one of the most volatile elections in terms of the polls for decades, which has seen the opinion polls based forecasters literally playing pin the tail on the donkey since Theresa May called the BrExit election. Virtually all of the pollsters started the campaign by forecasting a Tory landslide Conservative election victory of over 400 seats that mostly persisted until barely to 2 weeks ago as the following table illustrates:

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ElectionOracle

Thursday, June 08, 2017

YouGov Final Election Bullshit Forecast - Tories Increased Majority But on 302 Seats / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

YouGov are turning themselves into first class headline grabbing bullshit artists. Having gained mainstream media attention with their first of a series of headline grabbing seat forecasts just over a week ago that stated they were forecasting that the Conservatives would actually LOSE seats by falling to 310 with Labour rising to 247 i.e. a hung parliament. And with their latest Conservative seats forecast of 302, with Labour rising to 269. Now barely hours before the polls open YouGov are running with an headline that implies the EXACT OPPOSITE RESULT! "Final call poll: Tories lead by seven points and set to increase majority". So could someone explain to me how is one expected to capitalise / utilise / interpret YouGov's two alternative outcome forecasts?

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ElectionOracle

Wednesday, June 07, 2017

Sheffiled City Council / Amey Trees Rampage Costs Labour Sheffield Hallam Election Win / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: N_Walayat

The Labour party smells blood in Sheffield Hallam having come within just 4% of winning the former Liberal Democrat Leader, Nick Clegg's seat in2015. And now with little signs of Liberal Democrat recovery in the polls, Labour are going all out to take the Sheffield Hallam seat in tomorrows vote.

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ElectionOracle

Wednesday, June 07, 2017

Spread Betting Market Arbitrage and BetFair Trading UK General Election 2017 / ElectionOracle / Spread Betting

By: Nadeem_Walayat

So Theresa May's snap general election campaign is nearly over and where my forecast conclusion is for the Conservatives to win with 358 seats on a majority of 66. With Labour losing 20 seats falling to 212. So following my my forecast conclusion my search has been on to identify spread and Betfair exchange betting market opportunities for these last few days and then hours ahead of the election result as I cover in this video analysis.

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ElectionOracle

Wednesday, June 07, 2017

Election 2017 Seats Analysis YG / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

...

 


ElectionOracle

Wednesday, June 07, 2017

Will Amey Trees Rampage Cost Paul Blomfield Sheffield Central Labour Seat, Green Win? / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: N_Walayat

The Green Party are fielding their party leader Natalie Bennett in the Sheffield Central constituency hoping to unseat Paul Blomfield from what has been a rock solid Labour seat since 1945, to whom the Labour baton was passed in 2010 from Richard Caborn. The Green party are eager to capitalise on local issues such as the felling of thousands of Sheffied's big and beautiful trees by the Spanish Ferrovial Family owned Amey as part of a £2 billion PFI outsourcing contract by Labour Sheffield City Council that has angered and outraged many tens of thousands of Sheffielders, prompting dozens of campaign groups to spring up that will likely play a major role in the oucome of the next 2018 local elections.

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ElectionOracle

Wednesday, June 07, 2017

UK General Election 2017 Forecast: Conservative 358, Labour 212 Seats / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

My recent video analysis concluded in seats per political parties forecast conclusion for Theresa May's snap BrExit general election, based up on the sum of 6 weeks analysis that is set against the opinion pollsters who are literally all over the place with YouGov even today forecasting 304 seats for the Tories whilst others range to as high as 385 seats.

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ElectionOracle

Wednesday, June 07, 2017

Nick Clegg's Desperate Election 2017 Message to Sheffield Hallam Voters / ElectionOracle / Sheffield

By: N_Walayat

Nick Clegg attempting to cling on to to his Sheffield Hallam seat has sent a desperate personal message to many Sheffield Hallam voters, highlighting all of the campaigning he has done in the area in respect of local schools and Sheffield Trees being chopped down. Though given what has subsequent come to pass then the campaigning has proved to be mostly ineffectual. Anyway here is Nick Clegg's message to the voters of Sheffield Hallam, a tight election race which Nick Clegg barely leads Labour by 4%.

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ElectionOracle

Tuesday, June 06, 2017

UK General Election 2017 Spread Betting Arbitrage to Lock in Risk Less Profits! / ElectionOracle / Spread Betting

By: Nadeem_Walayat

With the opinion polls all over the as illustrated by the pollster based Conservative Party seats forecasts wide range from 304 (YouGov) to 380 . The spread betting markets are throwing up a disparate range of possibilities to arbitrage between the different quotes across a range of spread bet market makers.

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ElectionOracle

Tuesday, June 06, 2017

Sheffield Election 2017 Battles - Hallam Clegg, Blomfield Central, Trees and Greens / ElectionOracle / Sheffield

By: N_Walayat

The unfolding Sheffield election battles are centered around whether the current 4 or 5 Labour MP's (is Penistone a Sheffield constituency?) or the former Lib Dem Leader retain their seats. So could Labour being 10% or so behind the Tories result in the feared landslide election victory for Theresa May in the BrExit election include Labour losing a seat? For the Sheffield City council's £2 billion deal with Ferrovial family owned Ame, effectively outsourcing local democracy to a multi-national could be the straw that breaks the voting camels back delivering Sheffield Labour a SHOCK election RESULT!

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ElectionOracle

Tuesday, June 06, 2017

UK General Election 2017 Spread and Exchange Betting Market Opportunities / ElectionOracle / Spread Betting

By: Nadeem_Walayat

With the opinion polls all over the as illustrated by the pollster based Conservative Party seats forecasts wide range from 305 to 385. Where it would be great if one could bet against the pollsters! i.e. ring up YouGov and go LONG on their forecast of Conservative 305 seats and SHORT of their Labour 267 seats. Of course they would never do that, as they clearly don't put their money where their mouths are, instead without consequence continue to pump out headline grabbing seats forecasts as demanded by the mainstream media to sell copy.

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ElectionOracle

Monday, June 05, 2017

YouGov Latest Crazy Polls Forecast Trending Towards Labour General Election Win! / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

YouGov continues to pump out i'ts crazy election forecasts on a near daily basis aimed at cornering the shcok polls market that are successfully sending the mainstream media into a feeding frenzy as the seats forecasts are resulting in an ever tightending election race, one of the Tories forecast to LOSE many seats paving the way for many Labour gains.

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ElectionOracle

Monday, June 05, 2017

Can Labour Win Nick Clegg's Sheffield Hallam Seat in Election 2017? / ElectionOracle / Sheffield

By: N_Walayat

In the 2015 General Election former Lib Dem Leader Nick Clegg put up a valiant battle in the face of a national Liberal Democrat wipeout. For in 2015 the opinion pollsters consistently had Labour winning the Sheffield Hallam Lib-Dem seat. Instead Nick Clegg managed to cling on in the wake of a Lib Dem bloodbath, however he did fall by a whopping 13% tumbling from 53.4% to 40% of the voter. Whilst Labour doubled their share from 16.1% to 35.8%, just 4.2% behind Nick Clegg. Whilst the Tories on just 13.6% clearly don't stand any chance of winning Sheffield Hallam in this election at least.

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ElectionOracle

Monday, June 05, 2017

UK General Election 2017 Seats Final Forecast, Labour, Conservative Lib-Dem, SNP / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Here is my final UK election forecast conclusion on the basis of the sum of my analysis of the past 6 weeks in the run up to Theresa May's BrExit snap general election. Usually I would have aimed to have posted my final forecast conclusion at least a month before the day of the election i.e. for the US Presidential election my forecast conclusion was some 7 weeks before voting day. But that was just not possible this time as Theresa May seeing the Tories well ahead in the polls Mid April decided to ride the BrExit wave into a landslide general election victory. But that was about 6 weeks ago, now the likes of YouGov are forecasting a hung parliament resulting in a probable Labour / SNP coalition alliance.

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ElectionOracle

Sunday, June 04, 2017

UK House Prices Forecast General Election 2017 Seats Result, for 2015 was 328 / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

In 2015 the polling establishment and the mainstream media had in unison proclaimed that the 2015 general election was too close to call, one where the Labour and Conservative parties were neck and neck and where even if the Conservatives managed to pull a handful of seats ahead would still lose by default as they would not be able to form a majority even with Lib Dem support and therefore the Labour party appeared destined to win the 2015 general election, all of which was based on a year of opinion polls that consistently presented this consensus view right up until the polls closed!

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ElectionOracle

Sunday, June 04, 2017

London Bridge Terror Attack 5 Seats Election Boost for Conservative Party / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

London has just been hit by another barbaric terror attack that was not even 10 days on from the horrific Manchester bombing that killed many children. The latest attack is just 5 days away from the General Election. Whilst information is very sketchy at this time barely an hour on form the London Met Police declared 2 terror related incidents at London Bridge and Borough Market. Nevertheless armed police have opened fire on at least 3 suspects, of which at least 2 are dead and 1 is being hunted. The police also announced that there are civilian causalities, though the scale of causalities is unknown at this time which hopefully will not be on the scale of Manchester.

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ElectionOracle

Saturday, June 03, 2017

UK House Prices Forecast General Election 2017 Conservative Seats Result / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The polling establishment and the mainstream media had in unison proclaimed the 2015 general election was too close to call, one where the Labour and Conservative parties were neck and neck and where even if the Conservatives managed to pull a handful of seats ahead would still lose by default as they would not be able to form a majority even with Lib Dem support and therefore the Labour party appeared destined to win the 2015 general election, all of which was based on a year of opinion polls that consistently presented this consensus view right up until the polls closed!

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ElectionOracle

Saturday, June 03, 2017

Betting Markets UK General Election 2017 Labour, Conservative Seats Forecasts / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Normally one would imagine that the betting markets should usually be the most accurate predictor in terms of the probable outcomes of events such as elections given that there is nothing that focuses ones mind more then putting ones own money where ones mouth is, which clearly the pollsters NEVER do given that they tend to be consistently wrong AND tend to publish polls that range all over the place so that after the fact can point to an outlier poll to imply that they got the election result right when in reality they most definitely got it very badly wrong!

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